It should be pointed out that since NPD doesn't release numbers anymore, and the 500K figure comes directly from MS (if I'm not mistaken), consequently we can't apply NPD standards for what constitutes a "sale" to the number we have. Presumably, MS would have no compunction about counting consoles given away as part of a promo, or a large sale to a distributor in South America. All we really know from NPD is that the 360's retail sales in North America were probably at least 300K, which is enough to top the Wii and PS3 figures.
NPD June 2011
- Thread starter AlNom
- Start date
It should be pointed out that since NPD doesn't release numbers anymore, and the 500K figure comes directly from MS (if I'm not mistaken), consequently we can't apply NPD standards for what constitutes a "sale" to the number we have. Presumably, MS would have no compunction about counting consoles given away as part of a promo, or a large sale to a distributor in South America. All we really know from NPD is that the 360's retail sales in North America were probably at least 300K, which is enough to top the Wii and PS3 figures.
I doubt LA Noire's sales even qualify it as a success given the budget, which as with most rockstar games, and given the production values, I assume is absolutely massive.
Those types of games are almost doomed to lose money.
I would compare it to Red Dead Redemption, except RDR sold much more....and I'm not even convinced RDR was a big moneymaker. There were rumors Rockstar did not expect to make money off RDR, and needed 5m in full price sales to make back it's budget.
La Noire has ~800k last month, ~400k this month, ~1.2 so far in the USA, not that great...
Here's the quote from MS's PR
MS PR said:
That indicates NPD numbers to me.
Hopefully, Matt Matthews does his regular Post-NPD analysis article on Gamasutra and gets some clarification.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
As well, they specifically say "sold" and not any other nebulous term to specify increasing install base by 507k units. If we include give aways, who knows how many X360's actually entered the NA market. 750k? 1 million? Only MS knows those numbers.
As well, sales number are available to both Nintendo and Sony as I assume they purchase/subscribe to the NPD data. So it would be quite easy for them to call MS out on that if it weren't NPD sales data.
Regards,
SB
As well, sales number are available to both Nintendo and Sony as I assume they purchase/subscribe to the NPD data. So it would be quite easy for them to call MS out on that if it weren't NPD sales data.
Regards,
SB
You mean the month they launched the Slim model? That was an aberration back then created by demand for the new hardware.
It could be like Pachter claims, MS got NPD to make an exception and include those as sales. Besides, presumably the consoles going to Brazil were, in fact, sold, even if not through traditional retail means, and who knows what the actual accounting practice is for the free 360 promo. For all we know it rings up like a sale with an instant 199.99 rebate, in which case, why wouldn't NPD track it?
It's easy enough to tell now. There is no alternate explanation being put forth. Absent a major game release, a price drop, a new hardware revision or a major holiday, there is simply no other way to explain a huge jump from May to June, especially one that only affects a single platform.
Except last june was 450,000 without Kinect, and and even bigger jump from May 2010 (which was under 200,000, no idea why the odd jump there), so it's actually quite reasonable.
It could go either way, we dont really know unless NPD or Microsoft tells us. Anyways, more units is more units whether given away or not, if it was the case these are counted, you could think of it as sort of a proxy price cut.
As I pointed out already in this thread, in June 2010 MS released the Xbox 360 slim hardware, accounting for the huge jump. There is no comparable event to stimulate sales this year except for the free 360 promo and this reported sale to a distributor in Brazil.
Brad explained that above. 360 Slim released last June. That explains why 450k last year. What's the rationale behind 500k this year without any obvious spiking event? Conspiracy theories aside, I think Brad presents a good line of reasoning when questioning this figures. There must be an explanation behind 500k sales for June. Are we to believe XB360 has doubled interest and will see double sales for every month this year?? Why the massive sales leap in June and not April or May that saw more expected sales given Kinect's popularity?
edit: Donning the ol' tinfoil hat, I'm wondering if MS wanted to report YoY growth, as so far this year 360 has been doing upwards of 50% growth each month. June would represent a decline on last year if it sold 300k versus 450k for last year's Slim peak. I'm sure some PR person wouldn't want that irrelevant comparison to mar their otherwise faultless Kinect growth success story, so I can imagine someone agreeing to take certain liberties to keep the graph line in the right place.
I could see why MS might be motivated to do that, but I'm trying to figure out how this makes sense from NPD's perspective (why would they be willing to do that given the effect this would have on their credibility, which is the foundation of their buisness) and why the other manufacturers (who also get the data) wouldn't be screaming bloody murder if such an arrangement was made. I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm just trying to reconcile it with those factors.
PSN debacle? It's a possible explain also, people with only PS3 before, buy 360… I known you don't like this idea on this board, but it's also a valid assumption like the others until we have better datas,
Buzz on the 360, people want it, etc… Switch of Wii to 360…Many explains can validate increase in sale on the US, the 360 seem like the console "you need to have" for US…
Died of last old 360 (began of the heat time in US?), so replaced units?
For the sale to Brazil's distributor, if this distributor is base only on Brazil, difficult to incorporate him to US sales.
Idea of numbers of second hand software sales on 360 can be helpful for better reading in these numbers.
Wrong. There was also the $50 gift card promo's at best buy, amazon and others this year. PS3 had the same promo.
Matt Matthews' NPD analysis article is up on Gamasutra.
He sources Pachter WRT to the sales promotion boxes being included and their effect on the numbers.
No mention of sales to a Brazilian distributor. Who was the source of that, BTW?
Also in the article, 1H analysis and software sales trajectories for MS, Sony, and Nintendo. (MS way up, Sony up, Nintendo down.) Further, speculation that there is now a chance that by the time sales wrap up for the Wii and 360 that the 360 may actually pass the Wii in cumulative software sales (NPD). This would have seemed unthinkable before the current year.
He sources Pachter WRT to the sales promotion boxes being included and their effect on the numbers.
Matt Matthews said:
No mention of sales to a Brazilian distributor. Who was the source of that, BTW?
Also in the article, 1H analysis and software sales trajectories for MS, Sony, and Nintendo. (MS way up, Sony up, Nintendo down.) Further, speculation that there is now a chance that by the time sales wrap up for the Wii and 360 that the 360 may actually pass the Wii in cumulative software sales (NPD). This would have seemed unthinkable before the current year.
While the Xbox jump in June NPD was rather eye popping, it should be noted that PS3 showed a rather large jump in sales in comparsion to May.
The Xbox went from 270k to 507k from May to June while the PS3 went from 177K to 276K and the Wii went from 236K to 273K.
In fact, a surge in sales from May to June happened last year too across platforms. I know many contribute the release of the Slim to last year 360 surge. But the PS3 went from 154k to 305k from May to June in 2010 which represents a bigger percentage jump than the Xbox jump from May to June this year. So does the PSP jump from 60K during May 10 to 121K for June 2010. Literally, anything not branded Nintendo saw a 100% jump in sales last year.
PlayStation 3 304.8K
PSP 121.0K
Xbox 360 451.7K
Wii 422.5K
Nintendo DS 510.7K
Thats June 2010 unit sales (1.2 million console, 1.8 total gaming devices) and represents alot of sales for normally what we expect as the part of slow sales months. I need to check previous years but maybe we are seeing a new phenemnom where people have started to pick up consoles to preoccupy their kids over the summer months. Or maybe a temporary phenemnom, where parents are making up for no summer vacation due to the recession.
The Xbox went from 270k to 507k from May to June while the PS3 went from 177K to 276K and the Wii went from 236K to 273K.
In fact, a surge in sales from May to June happened last year too across platforms. I know many contribute the release of the Slim to last year 360 surge. But the PS3 went from 154k to 305k from May to June in 2010 which represents a bigger percentage jump than the Xbox jump from May to June this year. So does the PSP jump from 60K during May 10 to 121K for June 2010. Literally, anything not branded Nintendo saw a 100% jump in sales last year.
PlayStation 3 304.8K
PSP 121.0K
Xbox 360 451.7K
Wii 422.5K
Nintendo DS 510.7K
Thats June 2010 unit sales (1.2 million console, 1.8 total gaming devices) and represents alot of sales for normally what we expect as the part of slow sales months. I need to check previous years but maybe we are seeing a new phenemnom where people have started to pick up consoles to preoccupy their kids over the summer months. Or maybe a temporary phenemnom, where parents are making up for no summer vacation due to the recession.
May to June has been a jump for MS and Sony every year. Nintendo was down 1-2% in 2008, but a jump every other year. June to July has also been a significant drop for Sony and MS every year. Nintendo is down every year but '07 in July from June. As I said before if they're counting promo sales (and those were near 100k as predicted by Pachter) we should see something like 700k in August from MS (double their previous high last year).
I'm finding a bit hard to read some people's take on these xbox numbers. Basically, unexplained situation must mean a conspiracy is a foot. Are there any facts that backup this? No, just the opinion that those numbers shouldn't be that high. So, we have an unexplained situation being explained by circular logic: This is wrong because it must be wrong. It could well be some Brazillian connection (starring Antonio Banderas) but what kind of facts are being put forth that sustain this?
Anyway, as rekator mentioned, I'd be a lot more inclined to believe the aftershock of PSN + windows 7 promo + kinect push explains this. If people agree 300k would be the "expected" sales numbers, are these three circunstances not capable of explaining the extra 200k in the whole NA?
Anyway, as rekator mentioned, I'd be a lot more inclined to believe the aftershock of PSN + windows 7 promo + kinect push explains this. If people agree 300k would be the "expected" sales numbers, are these three circunstances not capable of explaining the extra 200k in the whole NA?
Well said Richard.
I suppose some view the Win7 promotion as cheating, but I don't really see it as particularly different from other promotions that reduce the price of entry. It's just another promotion, and if people jump on it because of the included hardware, why shouldn't it be considered a sale?
At the end of the day, we're really counting sold to retailers are we not? HP or the computer hardware retailer still has to put orders in for the hardware in order to have the promotion in effect.
I suppose some view the Win7 promotion as cheating, but I don't really see it as particularly different from other promotions that reduce the price of entry. It's just another promotion, and if people jump on it because of the included hardware, why shouldn't it be considered a sale?
At the end of the day, we're really counting sold to retailers are we not? HP or the computer hardware retailer still has to put orders in for the hardware in order to have the promotion in effect.
