Will MGS4 get 1 million day one sales?

[PARANOiA]

The only thing that annoys me about MGS4 is the double dipping for MP. I hope that does not become a trend.

IIRC it was decided MGSO would be part of MGS4 initially - which is of course good news.

Metal Gear Solid Online for PlayStation 3 is initially released as part of the Metal Gear Online Starter Pack, a package included with Metal Gear Solid 4.

http://au.ps3.ign.com/objects/950/950626.html

 

[woundingchaney]

MGS3 in 2004 the install base was somewhere around 80-85 million - not exact

MGS2 in 2001 the install base was around 25 - 30 million - not exact


Couldnt find exact figures so used various "announcement" articles to compile the information.

 

[dobwal]

I think they have a pretty good chance. The title has had enough attention, and it's the final chapter, a grand finale on a new system. I'm pretty sure they won't release it if it isn't really good. The only thing that might kill it is too much hype. 1 million day one is a lot, but I think comparing to Halo 3 on the 360 it should have a good chance, since the game is popular in all three regions and the PS3 by that time could well be at a comparable level as the 360 was when Halo 3 was released.

Halo 3 success on the 360 in not a good indication of what MGS4 can do the PS3.

We talking two different franchises that have been moving in opposite directions on two different platforms that sit on opposite ends of the software sales spectrum.

MGS4 selling 1 million units on the PS3 on the first day will be much greater feat than what Halo 3 did in one day.

 

[Turok]

I don't see it happening. With the PS3's rather meh install base, and going off the numbers of MGS3's sales in proportion to the PS2's install base, the future looks bleak. Personally, I'm hoping it doesn't happen, that way theres a bit of hope for a 360 port.

 

[Skrying]

Is it going to release in all regions on the same day? Possibly if so, no way in hell if not. Expecting relatively great first week sales for this game, but not that great overall.

Kojima sound like an idiot with the first day/1M sales thing, maybe if he said something more intelligent like "need at least 2.5M to start making a profit" or so...

 

[XeRo]

9 sales down, only 9,999,991 more to go. Go Konami!

I am pretty sure 10 million for day one sales is impossible

 

[fallguy]

I voted day one, but it may not be for a few days after. I cant tell what Im doing that day right now... It will be the first week though.

 

[bRoNx]

I am pretty sure 10 million for day one sales is impossible

He's using a different conversion rate! Duh!

 

[SugarCoat]

Hey shifty, wheres the "I'll wait and buy it for my 360" option?



/runs

 

[joker454]

That's an absolutely ridiculous statement! What's wrong with MGS4 getting 1 million sales in 2+ days?

My guess is that they see day one sales as an indicator of longer term sales, and hence they can predict from that if they will recoup their investment. In other words, if they sell 1 million on day one then they can predict/guesstimate longer term sales hitting say 3 million. But if they only sell 300k on day one then their long term prediction/guesstimate falls to say 1.5 million (note I'm just making up numbers here to make the point). What his statement of 1 million on day one does clearly tell me though is that they need to sell a whole lot more than 1 million units to turn a profit.

 

[TrungGap]

Kojima sound like an idiot with the first day/1M sales thing, maybe if he said something more intelligent like "need at least 2.5M to start making a profit" or so...

Hehehehe, don't you want to know...don't all of us want to know. As that would be too easy to guess at the cost of production.

I don't think he sound like an idiot. I'm sure he knows how much the buy rate taper off, so making a big splash would only extend that out further. It's the same way we measure movie release by the first weekend.

I don't think 1M (first weekend) is impossible...personally I think it's very likely.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Hey shifty, wheres the "I'll wait and buy it for my 360" option?



/runs

I actually think that's a legit question and option.

When GTAIV was released, it was only rumored for the Xbox.

I had an Xbox, yet I went and purchased a PS2 and GTAIV. Of course, at that point, I could buy a PS2 for $149 (I think it was a refurbished model, which broke, which was the first of three PS2's I ended up buying...)

But the point is that the console was cheap enough and the game was hot enough that even though it was rumored to be released on the Xbox at some point in the future (6 months? a year?), I wanted to play it then!

(The PS2 also had some other exclusives that I wanted to play on it, like SOCOM, but that currently balances out with the PS3 and games like resistance so that factor doesn't really come into play, I don't think.)

The difference now would really come down to the price of the console. If I had a 360, which I don't, but wanted to play MGS4 (which I don't), and there were rumors that it might come out on the 360 in a couple of months, would I be willing to pay $399 for the console plus the game, or would I just wait hoping the rumors were true or the price on the PS3 would drop when I found out it wasn't going to be released on the 360?

The prices on all of the consoles are so ungodly expensive for the average consumer at this point that it does really impact the number of units that these games will sell as well as the number of consoles that certain games will move.

 

[D3B]

A million preorders shouldnt be so hard I would think.

 

[one]

Halo 3 success on the 360 in not a good indication of what MGS4 can do the PS3.

We talking two different franchises that have been moving in opposite directions on two different platforms that sit on opposite ends of the software sales spectrum.

MGS4 selling 1 million units on the PS3 on the first day will be much greater feat than what Halo 3 did in one day.

Then let's use Gears of War instead. It was released roughly a year after the launch and the console price was $399. How many did it sell on the first day?

 

[PARANOiA]

What's the biggest day one PS3 game to date?

MGS4 is the game most gamers who haven't jumped in have been quoted to be waiting for.... 1mil should be easy if it is worldwide.

 

[Jov]

Given the lack (or relatively low number) of 'reviewed' AAA titles, if MGS4 gets AAA reviews it will it 1 mil with ease.

 

[2real4tv]

Its possible but they need to get a the hype train going months b4 release. They also need to limited the amount of material shown, it seems to help reviews.

 

[SugarCoat]

Then let's use Gears of War instead. It was released roughly a year after the launch and the console price was $399. How many did it sell on the first day?

Dont take this for law or anything but i believe it was around 2mil sold in the first month and a half and up to 3mil sold another month after. MS Game Studios touted it as the most pre-ordered game they published second to only Halo 2. If we take that as any indication then Gears easily broke 1million+ with pre-orders + launch day sales.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's an absolutely ridiculous statement! What's wrong with MGS4 getting 1 million sales in 2+ days?

OBviously because they're wanting 2 million sales in 2 days. Duh!

Hey shifty, wheres the "I'll wait and buy it for my 360" option?

I did think about that, but that isn't a measure of PS3 uptake which is what they're anticipating to be high. This thread is really a measure of who of the PS3 owning (or future owning) population is going to get PS3, from which we can hazard a guess (ignoring the totally different software buying practices of B3Ders from other PS3 owners!) on if they'll hit their percentage.

At the moment, 21 out of 29 PS3 owners at MGS4's launch are going to buy the game, which is >70%. With an install base of 8 million PS3s by then perhaps, that'll be 5,600,000 units of MGS4 sold. Konami can rest easy

 

[ErnstH]

At the moment, 21 out of 29 PS3 owners at MGS4's launch are going to buy the game, which is >70%. With an install base of 8 million PS3s by then perhaps, that'll be 5,600,000 units of MGS4 sold. Konami can rest easy

Of the Beyond3D visiting PS3 owners. I wouldn't call that a representative selection of PS3 owners though.

Personally, I don't think they'll make it. PS3 owners haven't been buying software all that much, the install base is still too low and MGS isn't that appealing to a broad base, at least less than Halo or Gran Turismo.