Who will be the market leader (console sales) at the end of CY2007?

[Laa-Yosh]

There's no way the Wii is not the top selling console by the end of the year, unless they can't produce as many units as the X360.

If Nintendo is really facing production problems, then it may be a tie. Because in that case, they can't build more consoles then they're doing now, so they can't sell any more either.
Unless, of course, they've solved those problems, or managed to slowly build up a little supply for the holiday season.

I expect Microsoft to increase their last two months' X360 sales about 50% compared to last year's.

Sony is a big question though, we need to see sales data for august and even september, just to make guesses.

 

[AntShaw]

This should of been a public poll. I would love to see who picked the PS3.

With that said, like has already been stated, if the WII can maintain supply and meet demand, then its theirs to lose. BUT, if they falter, and MS really has as many system sellers coming out this fall/holiday it could be a tie, or a slight edge to 360. Halo 3 gonna be selling a lot of units.

360 attach rate will be off the charts this holiday!

 

[aselto]

Sony is a big question though, we need to see sales data for august and even september, just to make guesses.

Consoles in December sell usually 5-6 times as much as they sell in September, so September should tell us how well each console will do this Holiday season except Wii, which is supply constrained even now in the middle of the Summer. Though with hit us heavy as Halo 3 in September it won't be necessarily the case for 360 either, but for PS3 it should be your standard predictable cycle.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

MS will be third I think. MS is basically only selling in 2 regions and in Europe sales arnt that great. I believe they arnt a whole lot better than the ps3 and that has the disadvantage of price.

Who will be number one? I wouldnt want to put my money on that yet. I think the Wii has a good chance but in the end it will need quality software, and a decent amount of it, if it want to keep on going in the long run.

I still think the ps3 might be able to hit back. The biggest problem is that sony needs to get the price down to the 300 and less regions as soon as possible because at a higher price no matter how much good games they get out the major public still wont buy it at that price. They also need to get the games people relate to playstation over the years out as soon as possible along with lowering the price at the same time. If that happens before christmas 2008 I still think there might be enough time to catch up with the Wii.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

If Nintendo is really facing production problems, then it may be a tie. Because in that case, they can't build more consoles then they're doing now, so they can't sell any more either. Unless, of course, they've solved those problems, or managed to slowly build up a little supply for the holiday season.

Exactly this.

I have never seen a single Wii unit in stock.

Ever.

So either Nintendo was artificially creating demand all this time, or they really have serious production problems that they haven't managed to solve despite the fact the console should be the easiest of the three to manufacture. Or, it could be that Nintendo is worried about ramping up production too drastically in fear that sales do suddenly falter.

Either way, I think we should re-examine this issue after the release of Halo3. I'm rather interested in the debate as to whether or not Halo3 is a true system seller.

I've heard many an argument that the majority of people who are Halo fans already have a 360. Therefore, it won't significantly increase sales.

MS is attempting to ride a 'perfect storm' of price drop - Madden 2008 - Halo 3 - Holiday season, for a snowball effect.

I don't think we've even seen the results from the price drop yet, or Madden, let alone Halo 3. MS is clearly banking their entire success this generation on this confluence, so we should see an observable effect in October.

We'll be better able then to see if MS can out-pace Nintendo through the remainder of the year.

 

[Natoma]

All three platforms have some good software coming out. PS3 has R&C, Uncharted, UT3, Warhawk, Haze, and a big PR push for Heavenly Sword and Lair. The Wii has Mario, Metroid, and SSB. The 360 has Halo, Bioshock, Mass Effect, and PGR4. The PS3 and Xbox 360 will both be getting CoD4, Assassin's Creed, Brother in Arms 3, Half-Life Orange Box and a number of other big time 3rd party titles.

Outside of Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, and Super Smash Bros Brawl, you have the following "big hitters" for the Wii coming:

Super Mario Kart (does it even need elaboration? )
Zack & Wiki: The Quest For Barbaros' Treasure
MySims (don't sleep on the power of this franchise, particular with the casual market)
Guitar Hero III (cross platform, but already tailored toward the Wii casual market)
Nights (first nights game since Saturn no?)
Manhunt 2 (controversy should spark sales)
RE Umbrella Chronicles
Soul Calibur Legends
No More Heroes
Fire Emblem
Sonic & Mario At The Olympics (uber promotional opportunity here. Mario + Sonic together for the first time, 2008 olympics, Wii casual market = B-O-O-M)

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

MS will be third I think.

I still think the ps3 might be able to hit back. The biggest problem is that sony needs to get the price down to the 300 and less regions as soon as possible because at a higher price no matter how much good games they get out the major public still wont buy it at that price. They also need to get the games people relate to playstation over the years out as soon as possible along with lowering the price at the same time. If that happens before christmas 2008 I still think there might be enough time to catch up with the Wii.

..cough.

What?

Oh, I forgot to mention that if Nintendo drops their price to $99, releases a firmware upgrade that produces PS3/360 caliber graphics, steals the Halo3 license from MS and the GT license from Sony, nobody will be able to catch them... ever!

I mean, really.

MS will be third, and you base this on Sony getting games to market that aren't even projected to hit this year as well as Sony dropping the price of the console to $300 when last I checked it was $599.

This poll was what do you believe will happen. Not want you want to happen.

EDIT I just noticed you said Christmas 2008. Are you aware this poll was for 2007 and you just decided to move the goal posts on your own?

 

[Skrying]

1.) Wii. It will do very well in all regions, as long as production is ramped up a bit more it should do well enough to beat out the Xbox 360 considering how much its outselling it currently month to month.

2.) Xbox 360. This console will fly off the shelves in incredible numbers in NA. I think it would easily double the sales of the Wii in NA. I some shock how much this will sale in the NA if enough are in stock come November and December. Otherwise it'll do well in Europe (not "great"), and well Japan....

3.) Playstation 3. Will play a very distant third in NA. Will do fairly decent in Europe, continue current trend there. Japan will continue as well.

So there we have it, basically I see the Xbox 360 doing amazing in NA but Wii world wide sales will be to much for it to close the gap. Playstation 3 will not be able (ever, IMO) to catch up with the Xbox 360, and certainly not the Wii. I expect the same trend to continue through 2008 as well.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Exactly this.
I have never seen a single Wii unit in stock.
Ever.

Whenever this comment comes up I check a few stores via their websites, and every time they have them in stock. Try ordering from Play, Amazon, Game or Woolworths

Of course, it could only be the UK that has a nice stock supply and I'm sure the situation is different in other parts of the world.

 

[Crossbar]

I find the question: "Who will be the 'next gen' market leader (console sales) at the end of CY2007?" a bit ambiguous. I assume that by "console sales" you mean # of consoles and not sales in $.

Anyway in both cases I´d pick the Wii, it will still be fresh this holiday season the buzz will still be around, the 360 is losing its novelty and the PS3 is to expensive.

Nintendo may not meet the demand, but their production seem to be running pretty well, they are not in a rush to cut the production costs and expose themself to those risks in the factories, they only need to concentrate on the component supply.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Consoles in December sell usually 5-6 times as much as they sell in September, so September should tell us how well each console will do this Holiday season except Wii, which is supply constrained even now in the middle of the Summer.

For past years we've had pretty much the same conditions for the holiday months. No price cuts were timed for this season, the PS2 and the Xbox has always been at the same price and the GC one level below that. Noone really had production problems either, and of course many big games were released in this season.

This time however, the situation is very different. Just as you've said, Wii might be an exception from this trend because of the rumored supply issues.

Then, the PS3 might be an exception if the stores run out of the 60GB models and Sony doesn't cut the price. Or MS cuts the price again. And it's a lot more expensive then its competitors anyway, wich is a totally new case.

Then, the X360 might be an exception if it has better availability then the Wii and a more competitive price then the PS3. And Halo3 will get an early release compared to other holidays when the big guns were only brought out in october or november.

So, I think that this year may easily go against the trends...

 

[zed]

, if the 360 does 1M a month for the remainder of the year (not unlikely IMO),

think about that for a sec
the xb360 does ~2/3 of its sales in NA
thus to do 1million WW a month NPD will have to be ~600k next month + the month after that, do u honestly see that happening?
granted i can see ~750k in nov + 1.5million in dec but thats still not gonna be enuf

by MSs only admission they only shipped 500k units world wide in the first 3 months of the year, 800k units WW in the next 3 months (true they did overship last year) but to jump up to 3000k forthe 3rd quarter is not gonna happen.

 

[Rangers]

How can the Wii possibly lose?

As has been stated it has three supremely strong territories. Sony has three mediocre ones and MS has one semi-strong, one mediocre, and one very poor one.

 

[22psi]

Wii > 360 >>> PS3

1. Wii is selling out in all markets.
2. 360 will have BIG BIG games to help drive h/w sales. 360 will still hold the overall s/w sales lead through end of 07.
3. PS3 80gb may hit 499 by XMAS (it desperately needs to)

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Wii > 360 >>> PS3

1. Wii is selling out in all markets.

Wii will be in the lead for sure. X360 might sell more in December and maybe November in NA, but not nearly enough to surpass Wii.

Wii is not selling out in Europe though, plenty of stock in most places. It's still selling very well though.

 

[SugarCoat]

I'll be kinda interested in how the Wii sells this holiday myself. I still dont really totally understand the momentum behind the sales, and half expect this fluke to just end one day. They havent been simply outselling the competition, they've been steamrolling...and i dont know why!

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

..cough.

What?

Oh, I forgot to mention that if Nintendo drops their price to $99, releases a firmware upgrade that produces PS3/360 caliber graphics, steals the Halo3 license from MS and the GT license from Sony, nobody will be able to catch them... ever!

I mean, really.

MS will be third, and you base this on Sony getting games to market that aren't even projected to hit this year as well as Sony dropping the price of the console to $300 when last I checked it was $599.

This poll was what do you believe will happen. Not want you want to happen.

EDIT I just noticed you said Christmas 2008. Are you aware this poll was for 2007 and you just decided to move the goal posts on your own?

wow no need for the hostility. I said if right? and I was talking about the long run. If its for christmas 2007 its easy right? Nintendo sold in 9 months what MS did in more than double that and sony is so far behind sales need to do x20 if they want to catch op in 3 months.

 

[Natoma]

This is how it's shaking out thus far:

79% expect Nintendo to have at least a share of the lead at the end of 2007.
52% expect Nintendo to have the outright lead at the end of 2007.

35% expect Microsoft to have at least a share of the lead at the end of 2007.
13% expect Microsoft to have the outright lead at the end of 2007.

10% expect Sony to have at least a share of the lead at the end of 2007.
5% expect Sony to have the outright lead at the end of 2007.

3% don't know.

 

[TheChefO]

I love prediction polls and I appreciate the diversity of predicting 360 instead of Wii, but honestly, Wii will end on top.

They are producing ~1m/mo (those are December sales for most consoles) and selling them. If there were a slowing recently of Wii sales, I'd say MS has a shot to pull ahead, but they aren't slowing (yet).

I agree MS will have a good showing this fall, but it won't be enough to make up for 1m/mo over the next 5 months of Wii sales.

My WW prediction for MS:
500k August (madden + bioshock)
650k Sept (halo3)
700k Oct (still pushing)
750k Nov (holiday)
1,5m Dec (holiday)

~4.1 million to the end of the year.


ps3 I've no idea what they will do for the rest of the year.

If they intro the 80gb at $600 and leave the remaining 60gb @ $500 'til the end of the year:
350k August (strong sales after cuts)
400k Sept (heavenly sword)
450k Oct (Drakes fortune)
600k Nov (holiday)
1m Dec (holiday)

~2.8m

If they cut price again, who knows. I'm interested to see how Christmas sales will be for ps3 as it is very expensive and I'm curious to see how many people believe it is priced in the "gift" category.

I have a theory it will not double Nov and double again in Dec as typical consoles have done historically. Reason being is these sales are historically gift purchases. My theory is ps3 is still priced above the "gift" bracket of most people, but it will get a serious bump. Xb360 I feel is in similar company in that it will not double and double again. Difference being I think demand will be peaked earlier by Madden, Bioshock, and Halo3. This demand level should be kept up with some big hitters later by multiplat 3rd party and other 1st party titles (Mass Effect etc).

Overall:
~5m Wii
~4.1m xb360
~2.8m ps3

 

[Asher]

I think the more interesting question is, who will sell the most software?

I think pure console sales are becoming increasingly irrelevant with the popularity of the Wii. It's a new market demographic that likely don't spend nearly as much on games. Even with the Wii likely pushing more hardware, I'd expect the 360 to dominate software sales this year. And I think to console makers, that's the most important.