Who will be the market leader (console sales) at the end of CY2007?

Who will be the market leader (console sales) at the end of CY2007?

  • Nintendo (Wii)

    Votes: 83 55.7%
  • Microsoft (Xbox 360)

    Votes: 27 18.1%
  • Sony (PlayStation 3)

    Votes: 8 5.4%
  • Nintendo/Microsoft

    Votes: 23 15.4%
  • Nintendo/Sony

    Votes: 5 3.4%
  • Sony/Microsoft

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Three way tie

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • I don't know! Get the popcorn!

    Votes: 3 2.0%

  • Total voters
    149
granted i can see ~750k in nov + 1.5million in dec but thats still not gonna be enuf.

Ya that seems reasonable, which would be up ~50% from last year.

Though, I think it's possible they sell 3 million in those two months if the "Arcade" meets a warm reception, and they have another $50 pricedrop.

Edit - Unless you mean 1.5million WW in Dec?? If so that's definately too low imo.

It sold 1.1 last year in the US alone, with nothing but GOW and a $399 pricetag. This year it is $350, has a slew of amazing games, and it also will have the new Arcade pack at $280(or less) which I'm convinced WILL sell.
 
Whenever this comment comes up I check a few stores via their websites, and every time they have them in stock. Try ordering from Play, Amazon, Game or Woolworths ;)

Sorry, Shifty. I should have been more clear. I meant in the physical, old fashioned, brick & mortar stores.

I have no doubt that I could find a Wii for purchase if I really wanted to get one.

But in terms of wandering into the local big box chain store and deciding 'What the heck? They've got one, I'll buy it.', it's never happened because I've never actually seen a unit physically sitting on the shelf or behind glass.
 
Btw, here's an update regarding 3rd party sales on the Wii.

RE4, a 2yr old game, with 750k copies worldwide.

Methinks the Wii can support 3rd party sales if 3rd parties put out great games. ;)

http://ir.capcom.co.jp/english/news/html/e070831.html

The Wii continues to expand its base to female gamers, families, and other new users. In May, Capcom released a "Resident Evil 4 Wii edition", the latest game from the critically acclaimed "Resident Evil" series. This game has achieved solid success worldwide, shipping about 750,000 copies (as of August 31st 2007).

Umbrella Chronicles may do even better.
 
Well, Capcom was only expecting around 300-400k by March 2008. So I'd say they've got that beat by a good margin. ;)
 
Btw, here's an update regarding 3rd party sales on the Wii.

RE4, a 2yr old game, with 750k copies worldwide.

Methinks the Wii can support 3rd party sales if 3rd parties put out great games. ;)

http://ir.capcom.co.jp/english/news/html/e070831.html

Umbrella Chronicles may do even better.

Not to question your brand loyalties again...but...

1. Wasn't RE4 a very popular franchise?
2. Wasn't it released at a high-volume value pricepoint?
3. Wasn't it one of the first AAA-quality games to try to fully use the Wiimotes control?

RE4 is in no way indicative of the health of 3rd party sales, for all of the above reasons.
 
Not to question your brand loyalties again...but...

1. Wasn't RE4 a very popular franchise?
2. Wasn't it released at a high-volume value pricepoint?
3. Wasn't it one of the first AAA-quality games to try to fully use the Wiimotes control?

RE4 is in no way indicative of the health of 3rd party sales, for all of the above reasons.

It shows that popular franchise games released for the wii for half the price will sell well. 2 years from now Halo3 for Wii, 29.99, it'll fly off the shelves.
 
Not to question your brand loyalties again...but...

1. Wasn't RE4 a very popular franchise?
2. Wasn't it released at a high-volume value pricepoint?
3. Wasn't it one of the first AAA-quality games to try to fully use the Wiimotes control?

RE4 is in no way indicative of the health of 3rd party sales, for all of the above reasons.

Rayman Raving Rabbids and Red Steel both sold over 1m copies. Invalidates #1, #2, and #3 no?

But feel free to question my brand loyalties. ;)

*shrug*
 
Joshua said:
The Wii is still struggling here and I don't see them breaking more than 1M units a month by any sizable margin in 2007.
Unless you are privy to their production capacities, that's a pretty big assumption to make. They managed to do pretty well with DS in face of supposed shortages (wasn't the second december already over 3M WW?), and there's been cirumstantial evidence of Wii getting shipment boosts in key times already too.

I could possibly see Wii being supply constrained to 360 numbers in hollidays, but not by any sizeable margin below them.

The Chef said:
I have a theory it will not double Nov and double again in Dec as typical consoles have done historically. Reason being is these sales are historically gift purchases.
On the other hand, gift purchases drove PS2 to ~2.4M in one December for US alone though - and this is about predicting WW numbers. Granted the consensus right now is that only Wii has PS2 levels of demand and Nintendo just can't supply that many, but a good question is, how many can they.
 
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Unless you are privy to their production capacities, that's a pretty big assumption to make. They managed to do pretty well with DS in face of supposed shortages (wasn't the second december already over 3M WW?), and there's been cirumstantial evidence of Wii getting shipment boosts in key times already too.

I could possibly see Wii being supply constrained to 360 numbers in hollidays, but not by any sizeable margin below them.

Granted the consensus right now is that only Wii has PS2 levels of demand and Nintendo just can't supply that many, but a good question is, how many can they.

I agree with this. I'm fairly certain Nintendo has done some stockpiling for christmas, 1 million worldwide for December is very low and Nintendo knows this. If they'll do something like 400k in NA then all the nice work they have done prior holiday season is basically wasted. I'm quite sure we will see over 1 million Wiis sold in NA during December, the interesting part which you also pointed out is to see who sells most in December.
 
Unless you are privy to their production capacities, that's a pretty big assumption to make.

Are you provy to their production capacities? If so, by all means, share!

As for the assumption, what is a biggest assumption:

A.) They have been supply limited for 9 months and their monthly units is slowly creeping upwards or

B.) The supply issues and news is all fabricated, the creeping increases in production are an intended slight of hand, and they have been holding back units for 9 months for a surprising 1 year later blast of units.

I guess my assumption is big, and the alternative assumption even a bigger one. I can live with that. It could happen, but it begs the question: when did Nintendo start holding back units? Were they that confident in sales? And are shortages an intentional PR move to further drive demand?

I agree that the GCN+ should be easier to produce, but major shortages in the first 3-4 months indicate there are real production issues. And while possible, I don't see the sense of then artificially capping sales for 5+ months (when you have little clue when sales with subside some, especailly during the slower times of the year). They could do it, and it could be a master stroke.

But I think that is one big fat assumption.

Seeing them production limited for 9 months and slowly creeping up in production numbers seems more likely to me. I could be wrong. I just think my assumption is based more on the facts, unless you are holding back production capacity numbers.

Yeh, Ninny could use the common sense logic and the assumption they themselves propagated as a means to surprise the industry. But the current production shortages would be an assumption they themselves created.
 
I voted for Nintendo/Microsoft assuming this means they'll be very close. I can't really understand the Wii phenomenon but I'm pretty sure that they'll be on top of everyone else this holiday season. A few thousand units at least.
 
Who chose the PS3? They must not know just how much it has to outsell Wii/360 per month just to break even until end of 07. Shrug
 
Are you provy to their production capacities? If so, by all means, share!

As for the assumption, what is a biggest assumption:

A.) They have been supply limited for 9 months and their monthly units is slowly creeping upwards or

B.) The supply issues and news is all fabricated, the creeping increases in production are an intended slight of hand, and they have been holding back units for 9 months for a surprising 1 year later blast of units.

I guess my assumption is big, and the alternative assumption even a bigger one. I can live with that. It could happen, but it begs the question: when did Nintendo start holding back units? Were they that confident in sales? And are shortages an intentional PR move to further drive demand?

I agree that the GCN+ should be easier to produce, but major shortages in the first 3-4 months indicate there are real production issues. And while possible, I don't see the sense of then artificially capping sales for 5+ months (when you have little clue when sales with subside some, especailly during the slower times of the year). They could do it, and it could be a master stroke.

But I think that is one big fat assumption.

Seeing them production limited for 9 months and slowly creeping up in production numbers seems more likely to me. I could be wrong. I just think my assumption is based more on the facts, unless you are holding back production capacity numbers.

They have probably been production limited all this time, but that doesn't mean they can't take action to secure units for the most critical season of the year. Any assumption that sees them having only 400-500k units sold in NA during December is wrong. They'll do whatever it takes to get solid amount of units to the store shelves.

http://www.emsnow.com/npps/story.cfm?id=27915

Wii is easy to produce and easy to assemble, all it needs is a production capacity and that is available, you don't need to set up your own factories either, but you can order extra units from other assemblers during key times and I think it's relatively risk free to expand your production that way. I can't think of a one reason why Nintendo wouldn't do exactly that, as having enough units during November and December is just about the most important thing for these companies.

Sometimes all information is not present, but the outcome can still be seen with reasonable accuracy, just like the European PS3 launch, when you were worried that It'll get postponed further than March because of production issues and as it turned out they had a huge abundace of units at launch.

Now the demand for Wii is such that abundance of units might not be possible, but I'll eat my fingers if they don't sell 1 million or more units during December in NA.
 
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Fair enough.

Although with the DS example I was always able to pick up a DS here locally. And the PS3 example, well, they didn't run into shortages stateside which would have alleviated issues to a degree. The Wii on the other hand... I have NEVER seen one at a store. Ever. And I go at least once per week.

But your suggestion, that Nintendo will expand production for the holidays. Which, actually, make sense. ~1M units a month throughout the year (good sales -- enough to cream MS and Sony) and continue the "demand" factor which builds hype and desire. And then for the huge sales period where it will apex flood the market to meet this pent up demand.

Ok, so maybe the Wii will kick everyones arse :LOL: But if they don't increase capacity (which they haven't done so yet, so either they are having some issue OR are using it for PR purposes) then I don't see them ending the year in first place. Close, and enough to regain the lead come Spring (as I earlier said).

Like I said earlier, if Nintendo does this sort of holiday splash... that is like a backhanded slap to the face! It will put into perspective just how poorly MS and Sony execs have ran their shows so far, which, imo, is pretty poorly.
 
I'm curious, how much more should Nintendo sell to be declared as a definite market leader? a million enough?
 
...On the other hand, gift purchases drove PS2 to ~2.4M in one December for US alone though - and this is about predicting WW numbers...

I'm thinking that ps3 is still too expensive to double November and December considering this sales ramp is almost entirely made of gift purchases. Not to say they won't have a bump, I'm just not expecting one as aggressive as historical consoles have shown.

...Ok, so maybe the Wii will kick everyones arse :LOL: But if they don't increase capacity (which they haven't done so yet, so either they are having some issue OR are using it for PR purposes) then I don't see them ending the year in first place...

Nintendo's producing and selling ~1million/mo. MS would have to pick up sales substantially this Christmas to catch them. I'm predicting Wii will sell roughly a million more than xb360 from August until the end of the year.
 
BrandIntel tells Next-Gen how the Wii is beating Xbox 360 and PS3 in purchase intent

That’s where BrandIntel comes in. The Toronto-based company today released its “Top Video Game Console Report: Consumer Insight Monitor,â€￾ which claims that sentiment and purchase intent for the Nintendo Wii tops that of Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.

As indicated by the graph below, BrandIntel’s scale rates purchase intent on a five-point scale. The Wii ranks in at over 3.5, the Xbox 360 just under 3.5 and PS3 intent is just above the 3.0 neutral mark. We’ll get to those scores in a moment.
 
Gosh! Good thing this report came out. Otherwise we'd never know that people want Wii more than XB360 more than PS3 with nothing but real sales to look at... And it's a scary metric. Overzealous hyperbole nets you more points. Thus is you have a...less emotional...userbase, you'll score less points. Still, we can be thankfully for the boffs at BrandIntel for identifying that the PS3 needs a price cut to increase popularity. I'll forward that info to Sony ASAP as I'm sure they'd be interested in this surprising nugget.
 
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