ZDNet/JAPAN: Ken Kutaragi, PS3 Route To Realization
- Thread starter ChryZ
- Start date
So what's he gonna do, release the specs in 2005 when all the Cell chips are done?
Kutaragi has went on record stating that he will demo Cell technology by march 2004; This is funny because this is the time when Cell goes into mass production if not a month eariler.
Where do I get a 2004 timeframe from? From Toshiba themselves, the processor is going into mass production 2004 in the Toshiba oita fab that will be finished in January 2004.
From recent reports on July 24th that SCEI said they will have Cell in devices 2005 and they think they can get it in devices 2004.
From new 3 day reports like this which confirm everything we have been saying.
http://games.kikizo.com/news/200308/009.asp
It's no prediction. 0.65 micon process, and Since these Cell's are for SCEI products they will be going inside PS3. Toshiba is mass producing Cell in the oita fab for scei's products, it says this right on the PR.
I don't know what he's going to do, I was just pointing out that there's no connection between announcing the specs and starting MP of a product. (contrary to your post)Paul said:
That's the target for the physical completion of the FAB. According to Toshiba MP is projected for "the latter half of first half of FY2004". (a.k.a. Q3/04)Paul said:
http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2003_04/pr2101.htm
Doesn't that sound kinda backwards? A link might help clearing that up.Paul said:
Ok, is it just me or does that writer sound much more reasonable than you and in fact quite reserved when it comes to commenting on the rumors that it's reporting about? ("If this chip continues moving forward at a good pace, there could be enough of them manufactured by mid-2005 to make the prospect of PS3's launch in Q4 2005 quite realistic.")Paul said:
As Toshiba doesn't plan MP in H1/04 (see above), I guess your prediction is nill anyway.Paul said:
cu
incurable
Joe DeFuria
Legend
incurable said:
Psssst....It's not just you...
Makes no sense not to do otherwise, of course anything *could* happen. Remember though, Sony wants to hype up ps3/cell as much as they can. Just like PS2.
Umm ok and where was I wrong, it clearly says that the plant will be done in January and mass production will be latter half of the first half of 2004.
I was wrong about the plant going into mass production March, however early production obviously will start then.
It states latter half of first half, there are 4 quarters so going by the latter half of first half would be Q2.
So expect some early production early 2004 with mass production around mid 2004-summer 2004.
It is going into mass production 2004 though.
Nope, and it backs up what I say.
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7382&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=60
What rumours? Cell going into production 2004 was from Toshiba, since when was things from toshiba a rumour. Second, your basically looking at a fall 2005 release for the US for ps3 with some sort of mid 2005 release for japan.
Nah it isn't, Cell is still going into mass production in 2004 on 0.65 micon to be used in ps3 either way. I was off by a few months though, so were you though.
Megadrive1988
Veteran
provided everything goes extremely smoothly on all fronts. hardware and software.
The best case senareo would be early-mid 2005 Japanese release and fall/late 2005 U.S.
but even as far back as 1999-2000, Sony said PS3 would be taking shape in 2006 - and every serious report or article ever written about PS3
has said 2005 or 2006.
With PS2 still selling extremely well, combined with the challenges with Cell processor, combined with huge game development challenges for game developers once they have PS3 dev kits, I would think 2006 is more likely than 2005. not because of any problems with Cell, but just the expected challenges and complexities involved.
As far as we know, Cell is still on track, on time, and development is going smoothly. I just think that we cannot say for certain if PS3 will be out in 2005. If it is now intended for 2006, that will provide some advantages. Sony will be able to include a more powerful version of Cell, a stronger GPU with more features since the hardware would be locked down at a later time, and perhaps more memory could be included.
then again, 2005 is still very possible.
I'd seriously doubt a PS3 in 2005 outside a paper launch in Japan, assuming that it will use some strong implementation of Cell, meaning that it has a very big chip.
Look at the bungling Intel is doing with the Prescott, and that chip is probably half as big as the Cell CPU of the PS3. Things will have to go simply amazingly to attain a real launch in 2005 anywhere, much less than the world.
OK, maybe I exaggerate, but still such a massive chip on a new process is will be difficult to do, well enough for a launch that is. I'm feeling that it'll be late 2005 for Japan (Sony owns that territory, they can afford big losses) at the earliest, and the rest of the world will see a PS3 somewhere in 2006.
Look at the bungling Intel is doing with the Prescott, and that chip is probably half as big as the Cell CPU of the PS3. Things will have to go simply amazingly to attain a real launch in 2005 anywhere, much less than the world.
OK, maybe I exaggerate, but still such a massive chip on a new process is will be difficult to do, well enough for a launch that is. I'm feeling that it'll be late 2005 for Japan (Sony owns that territory, they can afford big losses) at the earliest, and the rest of the world will see a PS3 somewhere in 2006.
Squeak said:PC-Engine said:Vince said:PC-Engine said:That BR cartridge looks fugly reminds me of IOMEGA ZIP carts
Well, then lucky for you the final BluRay discs won't have them.
Not just lucky for me but for the majority of consumers ie CD and DVD.
Ever heard of a caddy?
Optical discs have been screaming for a cartridge since the very beginning. Not only does a cartridge alleviate the problem of scratches and dirt on the disc surface, it also allows for much higher density of information, because of less need for error correction and thinner protection layer.
PC-Engine where have you heard about BR-discs not having a cartridge?
It would seem very strange to me, since there is already retail players out there, which play cartridges. Why would they suddenly change it, and more importantly how? They wouldn't be able to keep the high capacity and reliability.
There are a handful of people who likes caddies then there are the rest of the world
BTW I didn't claim the final version of BD won't use caddies, it was Vince who said that. I assumed he knew what the final BR would/wouldn't require so I just made the point that for most people a caddiless design would be more desirable.
PC-Engine said:There are a handful of people who likes caddies then there are the rest of the world
BTW I didn't claim the final version of BD won't use caddies, it was Vince who said that. I assumed he knew what the final BR would/wouldn't require so I just made the point that for most people a caddiless design would be more desirable.
I heard it from a Sony Group America Exec incharge of the BR format in this hemisphere. Marconelly might have seen it aswell. The caddy is going and instead we'll have a hard protective layer - Thank God.
PC-Engine is 100% correct and I agree completely with him (for once).
PS. Mega - when have you ever seen PS3 with a 2006 launch date? Common' now.
It's the latter half of the first half of Toshiba's fiscal year 2004 (April/04 - March/05), a.k.a. Q3/04.Paul said:
Ok, I understand what you're trying to say now. Thanks.Paul said:
This whole article / news blurb you linked is based on rumors and it makes that very clear by the language it uses.Paul said:
Yes, you were off by 6 months. But where was I?Paul said:
cu
incurable
Perhaps - but it would seem market spoke on the issue several times, and caddies always came, and promptly went away as well...Squeak said:
PC CDRom drives originally only worked with caddies - they didn't catch on and faded out pretty fast.
DVD-Rams were originally designed with non-removeable caddies. Type-2 Rams came almost immediately - featuring removeable caddies and drives have been compatible with caddyless discs from the get go (standard DVD/CD compatibility).
BR pretty much follows the footsteps of DVDRam so far - although I have to say BR caddies are a fair bit less bulky. Still, the protective layer option seems more suited for mass market.
I can't see how anyone could say caddies are a bad thing.
Videotapes come in a caddy, you don't say you'd prefer two loose reels instead?
As long as one doesn't have to swap discs in and out of them (which I'm sure none is suggesting for blueray), what the *bleep*'s wrong with a caddy? Anyone suggesting a bare disc which WILL get dusty/dirty/greasy/scratched is better than one encased in a protective shell; are you *bleep*ing crazy?! Minidiscs come in them, it works great. Caddys rule!
*G*
Edit: Polished language a little.
Videotapes come in a caddy, you don't say you'd prefer two loose reels instead?
As long as one doesn't have to swap discs in and out of them (which I'm sure none is suggesting for blueray), what the *bleep*'s wrong with a caddy? Anyone suggesting a bare disc which WILL get dusty/dirty/greasy/scratched is better than one encased in a protective shell; are you *bleep*ing crazy?! Minidiscs come in them, it works great. Caddys rule!
*G*
Edit: Polished language a little.
I completely agree with Grall. People saying caddies are a bad thing, obviously haven’t thought things through.
The reason caddies flopped earlier, was because they were poorly conceived.
First off, software didn’t come in caddies, so if you wanted one for every disc, you had to buy them separately, and they were hideously expensive.
If you only had one caddy, then you had to go through the procedure of opening it, fumbling the disc out, which would often get scratched during, then inserting the new disc, and finally closing the caddy.
To much trouble when a tray is so much easier.
A new caddy for "old" lose disc media could be like a removable disc tray, with a disc hub like the one in the Gamecube drive, which you could click discs on to, without even removing it completely from the machine.
The reason caddies flopped earlier, was because they were poorly conceived.
First off, software didn’t come in caddies, so if you wanted one for every disc, you had to buy them separately, and they were hideously expensive.
If you only had one caddy, then you had to go through the procedure of opening it, fumbling the disc out, which would often get scratched during, then inserting the new disc, and finally closing the caddy.
To much trouble when a tray is so much easier.
A new caddy for "old" lose disc media could be like a removable disc tray, with a disc hub like the one in the Gamecube drive, which you could click discs on to, without even removing it completely from the machine.
I don't think caddies are a bad thing, personally I like the look of BR caddies, and I keep my DVDRams in caddies also, but whether mass market will ever adopt them or not is a whole different matter.
Granted, games and HD movies selling in this form could go a long way in that matter
Granted, games and HD movies selling in this form could go a long way in that matter
Just saying that so far it didn't exactly work out yet - while attempts have been made.Squeak said:
And you also have the argument from viewpoint of PCEngine and co. - namely people that burn a lot of their own content who are used to stacking hundreds or even thousands of discs
Granted capacities will change, but so will the content density...
Of course, you're probably right that the argument is rather on the weak side - mainstream users that don't write their own content often, are perfectly used to having large DVD/CD boxes around the house - and caddies wouldn't make those any larger I figure.
Joe DeFuria
Legend
Squeak said:
Actually, if caddies fail, it likely won't be because of consumer rejection...it'll be because of cost.
I'd have to assume that a caddyless disk is significantly less cost to manufacture. If a caddy isn't absolutely needed for stability or protection, we won't see it.
Nowhere near as extreme as the old-school console cartridges, of course, but the concept is the same. Consumers didn't have an issue with the format (aside, ultimately, for capacity)...but vendors had big issues with cost, which hurt profits.
zidane1strife
Banned
Ooopsss didn't read fiscal...
edited
anyway true, they'll start mass manufacturing later...
But
But, after the psp announcement, a worldwide simultaneous launch for fall 2005 is more likely.
edited
anyway true, they'll start mass manufacturing later...
But
That means, enough for dev. kits, etc...
But, after the psp announcement, a worldwide simultaneous launch for fall 2005 is more likely.
