Xbox360 sales

[rounin]

Since theres no recent thread on this, I decided to make one after the debate on the PS3 sales have died down. At the time, amidst the chaos in the thread, there was a link that was posted in the PS3 sales thread that led to a website with some interesting numbers regarding what numbers that the Xbox360 have been pulling in and comparing them with that of the original Xbox. From his investigation, the author found that when viewing launch-aligned numbers, Xbox360 is in fact selling that much better than the Xbox, in fact, quite the opposite and is actually selling only marginally more:

Here is a link to their site ; http://yourgamerparadise.wordpress.com/2007/01/19/sales-analysis-xbox-vs-x360/

Here is one example of the graphs they showed.

Although 360 had shortages couldn’t it also be seen that 360 was making up for it’s shortages to get up to those that it took Xbox in it’s first 2 months while 360 was selling normal for a losing console. The X360 didn’t even catch up to Xbox launch window sales til about month 6 or 7. So then after that it’s pretty much fair game but still we must also remember the Xbox had no userbase or fanbase like the 360 did going in yet both had exact same sales coming out. Whichever way you try to find an excuse as to why the 360 has similar sales to the Xbox you’ll always be kidding yourself. As of now the 360 is performing only well as the Xbox is. Another thing that is even bigger is that 360 had no competition this entire time while Xbox was competing with PS2 and GC. Now as an outlook for what 360 needs to do in 2007 to take out Xbox is this. At the end of 2003 the Xbox had 8,520,000 total sales in North America. If X360 stays consistent with it’s non Holiday sales and it’s Holiday sales by the end of 2007 MS could have close to 10 million sold in North America alone. Would definetly be over Xbox but MS couldn’t outsell Xbox in this timeframe without competitiont. Going to be difficult.
...
We aren’t going to assume but it’s definetly obvious that the reason the 360 had so many shipments, 2.4 million, over the Xbox was definetly due to the worldwide release. So that shifts our entire things. The Xbox by the end of 2003 had shipped 13.7 million units. MS is planning to beat that in June of 2007. So MS is definetly planning on beating the Xbox but can sales keep it up or will it become a mere Xbox. And even if it does outsell Xbox is that really saying much at all. The PS2 is the console to mimick and right now X360 is showing no signs of mimicking it.
...
But the game is definetly now on. It has managed to mimick so far American and Japanese sales of the Xbox and outbeat it in shipments because of a worldwide release. That is a fact in the same time period. So definetly the worldwide launch helped. But if they could only barely outbeat it because of that if the 360 had a similar launch as to that of the Xbox with no worldwide launch would we have seen a similar pattern. And with both the competition coming in outbeating their launch will we see them outbeating their yearly numbers.

The argument is that even with the advantage of a Worldwide launch, an established fanbase, and a total lack of competition in the next-gen sector, Xbox360 has only managed to slightly outdo the Xbox in sales.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Is that US data or worldwide data?

Anyway, it should be clear to everyone by now that X360 is a much bigger success and its sales are a lot stronger. It has reached 40% of its predecessor's sales in ~25% of the time, and it still haven't had a price cut yet.

 

[pakotlar]

Is that US data or worldwide data?

Anyway, it should be clear to everyone by now that X360 is a much bigger success and its sales are a lot stronger. It has reached 40% of its predecessor's sales in ~25% of the time, and it still haven't had a price cut yet.

Yeah, these doomsday figures keep coming in, but the story never seems to change. I don't think anyone can deny that x360 is selling well, and that it is going to establish itself better than the xb0x.

 

[rounin]

The graph I showed is just of NAmerica sales.

However, the idea is that within the same timeframe, the Xbox360 does not seem to be doing much better.

In 14 months of sales from launch, the Xbox vs Xbox360 sales are as follows:

Total- 5,075,000/5,024,000

In Japan, Xbox vs Xbox360:

Total as of Week 58- 389,000/316,250

And as for Europe :

Xbox had 1.8 million units out in Europe in 9 months while X360 in 9 months had 1.7 million shipped.

 

[22psi]

Is that US data or worldwide data?

Anyway, it should be clear to everyone by now that X360 is a much bigger success and its sales are a lot stronger. It has reached 40% of its predecessor's sales in ~25% of the time, and it still haven't had a price cut yet.

That's what I am figuring. According to the chart, after 15 months, the 360 has sold about 5.5m in the US I presume. So these figures are based on NPD? We do know MS has shipped 10.4m+ consoles since last month or so and Xbox 1 WW shipments were around 25m at the end of the lifecycle at 25-50% higher costs? I think 360 is selling perfectly fine.

 

[Natoma]

Part of the reason why the sales aren't outpacing Xbox is because the Xbox launched at $299. 6 months later, it was at $199. 360 launched at $399 and has stayed at $399 since then.

The fact that the 360 is keeping pace with the Xbox in sales, or slightly ahead, with the higher price is a testament to the strength of the Xbox brand today in comparison to where it was in 2001.

There's nothing to see here. Move along.

 

[Rangers]

The argument is that even with the advantage of a Worldwide launch, an established fanbase, and a total lack of competition in the next-gen sector, Xbox360 has only managed to slightly outdo the Xbox in sales.

In general this is somewhat true.

I know just watching the NPD's, though, Xbox1 rarely sold over 200,000 in a month. 360 almost always does.

Another thing is, 360 was trailing about 900,000 units after it's first holiday season (1.5m vs 600,000, because of the shortages for 360). It then spent most of the first year making up that deficit. Usually around 100,000 a month, which is a lot when you're dealing in a ~200k a month sales range. 360 did not actually overtake Xbox1 in NPD sales until November or December I believe.

January for example, Xbox1 sold 163,000 in Jan 03 (it's 2nd), 360 sold 293,000 this year (also it's second). A gain of 130,000 units. The figures could be skewed by the fact this was a 5 week Jan, If you adjust for the extra week 360's sales were 234,000. Or a gain of ~70,000.

Also, account for the Xbox1 was $299 to start, and dropped to $199 because of poor sales very quickly. So in essence, the 360 costs twice as much.

Current LTD 360 NPD are about 4.8m, Xbox1 to same point was about 4.7. However taking away the first two months, it's 360 4.2 vs Xbox 3.2.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

It should be pretty obvious to anyone that the Xbox 360 is doing much better than the Xbox did, considering the $399 price point and market leadership position. There won't be much doubt about that when MS drops the price by $100 and Halo 2 and GTAIV come out.

 

[rounin]

One oddity is that there is always still the unit that launched at $299 called the Xbox Core. Its existence throws some question into the conclusions being drawn to say the least.

I also notice that some people are talking about the Xbox360 sales in terms of the worldwide numbers and comparing them with the Xbox numbers aligned with the N.American launch and drawing the conclusion that it is doing proportionately better. I'm not quite sure this is actually constructive because I think it is more realistic to align the relative regional numbers as to fully compare the acceptance - people cannot buy a product that has not been made available to them.

I also think that perhaps taking away the first few months from the Xbox NPD numbers may not be a valid trim of data sample, because it is one of the factors that needs to be accounted for when you go for a world wide launch and inarguably has a close relationship with the entire comparison being made.

 

[infinity4]

very discouraging. they had almost a year head start and only achieved that figure. they still have Halo 3 and Grand Theft Auto 4 to boost their sales though

 

[Tap In]

take into account Xbox 1 after 6 mos was $199 US dollars.

compared to (mostly) $399

 

[Rangers]

One oddity is that there is always still the unit that launched at $299 called the Xbox Core. Its existence throws some question into the conclusions being drawn to say the least.

True but, almost nobody buys it (nobody buys the PS3 20GB pack either). Average Selling Price (ASP) of 360 hardware in Jan was nearly $393. That means 90+% being sold are at that 399 point.

For whatever reason if people go to buy the 360, they consider the premium as a baseline, making the default price essentially $399. The price best used in comparisons. And that doesn't even account that Xbox1 fell to $199 very quickly, where 360 has not had any price drop yet (a strategic mistake on MS part, imo).

I also notice that some people are talking about the Xbox360 sales in terms of the worldwide numbers and comparing them with the Xbox numbers aligned with the N.American launch and drawing the conclusion that it is doing proportionately better. I'm not quite sure this is actually constructive because I think it is more realistic to align the relative regional numbers as to fully compare the acceptance - people cannot buy a product that has not been made available to them.


I also think that perhaps taking away the first few months from the Xbox NPD numbers may not be a valid trim of data sample, because it is one of the factors that needs to be accounted for when you go for a world wide launch and inarguably has a close relationship with the entire comparison being made.

I'm just giving you the NPD numbers. European sales are hard to come by. It remains that 360 has been selling >Xbox by a significant amount every month since Dec 05.

You can argue that ms lost a lot of sales with the shortages in 05, by not being able to satiate demand back then, they left maybe a million units on the table.

Also, in Japan, 360 has been selling 4-5k per week where Xbox sold ~1k or less per week. I cant verify that site's LTD's, but if it is the case the Xbox1 had sold more it was because of a better launch. Xbox1 had a good Japanese launch, but did not sustain any sales. 360 had a poorer launch, but has sustained weekly sales since then much higher due to games like Blu Dragon (still a pittance though, of course). This is another case where 360 will overtake Xbox1 soon.

Europe I dont know, I'd guess 360 is selling marginally better over there than Xbox1.

Here are the Feb-Oct 03 Xbox1 numbers

163,522
125,147
122,897
165,861
136,199
144,205
169,865
175,082

Those look like easy comparisons to me..360 should gain on average at least 50,000 units a month on it's predeccesor in the coming year.

But looking at still somewhat anemic 360 sales masks a bigger picture imo, which is whether or not 360 will reach a PS2-level of mass market critical mass soon, coupled with price drops and a third party games advantage.

 

[ManuVlad3.0]

take into account Xbox 1 after 6 mos was $199 US dollars.

compared to (mostly) $399

And XBOX had Cube PS2 as your competitors. And X360 was alone in next-gen consoles market a entire year.

 

[Rangers]

And XBOX had Cube PS2 as your competitors. And X360 was alone in next-gen consoles market a entire year.

These are good points too. Valid.

But then you can also say things like, 360 has outsold it's Playstation competitor (in this case PS3, just in case somebody tries to compare to PS2) all three months both have been on the market, a trend likely to continue. Xbox1, almost never outsold PS2 (the only month or two it did, Dec 04, was probably due to PS2 shortages). In fact, most months of course PS2 crushed Xbox by 2-1 or more. Wouldn't you say ms is off to a better start versus the competition this time?

Also, it looks to me like 360 is finally close to overtaking PS2 in monthly sales for good. Took long enough..

 

[scooby_dooby]

The graph I showed is just of NAmerica sales.

However, the idea is that within the same timeframe, the Xbox360 does not seem to be doing much better.

In 14 months of sales from launch, the Xbox vs Xbox360 sales are as follows:

Total- 5,075,000/5,024,000

In Japan, Xbox vs Xbox360:

Total as of Week 58- 389,000/316,250

And as for Europe :

It's a horrible analysis, based on misrepresentation of some key elements:
1) The 360 launched WW simultaneously, thus, if you want to compare sales, compare sales in all regions

2) The only reason the Xbox1 appears to be selling around the same amount, is because of launch definciencies in the US, cause by the WW launch.

3) when you compare the month to month sales, the 360 outsold xbox every single month others than the first Nov, and Dec of the product launch.

It's funny math, and paints a completely distorted picture of the current success of the console.

The facts are:
- the console is selling at nearly twice the price, has enjyed greater demand every single month than the predecessor, despite being twice the price,
- in 1 year, has reached 40% of it's predecessors sales over 4 years.

If you ignore the price difference, ignore the worldwide launch, and focus ONLY on cumalative US sales, you can spin this to say it's only 'marginally' more succesful than Xbox1, but I would really question your sanity!

 

[scooby_dooby]

I also notice that some people are talking about the Xbox360 sales in terms of the worldwide numbers and comparing them with the Xbox numbers aligned with the N.American launch and drawing the conclusion that it is doing proportionately better. I'm not quite sure this is actually constructive because I think it is more realistic to align the relative regional numbers as to fully compare the acceptance - people cannot buy a product that has not been made available to them.

Of course it's constructive, as it is the total worldwide install base that influences developers and publishers, which in turn impacts the longterm success of the console.

In addition, the WW launch directly impacted the regional comparison as hundreds of thousands of untis were allocated to other regions, this makes a direct comparison of regional sales invalid. If it weren't for the WW launch, the sales in NA would be higher due to greater quanities at launch.

 

[Dave Baumann]

The argument is that even with the advantage of a Worldwide launch, an established fanbase, and a total lack of competition in the next-gen sector, Xbox360 has only managed to slightly outdo the Xbox in sales.

When the analysis is done just on NA numbers then this is completely the wrong wording because as far as the NA numbers go the general lack of product coupled with the worldwide launch it is a detriment. If you take the first two months sales out of the eqution, since then the total NA sales have exceeded the orginal XBOX by over 850,000 units according to NPD data.

 

[Rangers]

Here's an awesome new chart from vgcharts.org, that I just discovered today:

http://videogamecharts.com/Gallery/albums/album01/MonthlyVideoGameSalesUS_002.gif

Compare away for yourself..any system any month.

Edit: Although I wish he wouldn't round the numbers off so much. Oh well.

 

[Todd33]

I think analyzing the numbers is much more difficult than it looks at the global scale.

What was interesting to me is the first non-launch Dec for the Xbox (1.03m) and 360 (1.1m) (numbers from ranger's link). I'm not sure what it means, but neither was supply limited at the time.

 

[Sis]

I think it's important to note that the Xbox 360 sales have been solid with very little variance in their month to month sales. If you look at the original Xbox sales, you'll notice they got a lot of bang for seasonal sales, such as Christmas or the price cut. This solid month to month sales is more important, in my opinion, than externally-generated sales spikes.