Xbox Business Update Podcast | Xbox Everywhere Direction Discussion

What will Xbox do

  • Player owned digital libraries now on cloud

    Votes: 3 23.1%
  • Multiplatform all exclusives to all platforms

    Votes: 3 23.1%
  • Multiplatform only select exclusive titles

    Votes: 8 61.5%
  • Surface hardware strategy

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • 3rd party hardware strategy

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Mobile hardware strategy

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Slim Revision hardware strategy

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • This will be a nothing burger

    Votes: 4 30.8%
  • *new* Xbox Games for Mobile Strategy

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • *new* Executive leadership changes (ie: named leaders moves/exits/retires)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .
This is a pretty lopsided view of sales here.
That's like saying, man you built a Honda Civic when everyone else is making BMWs and of course BMWs are better, and then they release a Ferrari, even better~!

Yea, but most people aren't willing to pay for a BMW, let alone a Ferrari.
Respectfully thats not a good comparison, nor is it true because you're ignoring demand and supply and the fact that Ferraris in this space are the RTX 4090 PCs(basically high end PC cards) not the consoles. The Series S is like a Russian lada being sold in a global market that wants Corollas. MS produced more Series S consoles at the start of the gen than the X but there was more demand for the Series X and there is still more demand for the Series X. How do I know this, the Series S has always been available. I have never seen a reported Series S stock out. And, despite that earlier drought of X consoles the X has sold more than the S. It was a strategic blunder in most aspects because people genuinely didnt want it and its always been available. There are more PS5s than the Series S globally because people would rather save up for a PS5 than buy what they consider a 1080p device. As well Series S is expensive in international markets after taxes. At that threshold it doesnt make sense to buy an S over an X or a PS5. I cant emphasize this enough.

This is a pretty lopsided view of sales here.
That's like saying, man you built a Honda Civic when everyone else is making BMWs and of course BMWs are better, and then they release a Ferrari, even better~!

Yea, but most people aren't willing to pay for a BMW, let alone a Ferrari.

Price is king, and as the core of the market is done their purchasing of consoles, the remaining folks usually buy in when the price is low enough, they are waiting for a sale that makes sense. And we can see 3 years into this gen, that's not happening. The this generation will not catch last generation in terms of hardware sales, and that's with everyone leaving Xbox to buy a playstation, and they had the extra added benefit of COVID and they are still behind PS4 numbers. And that gap is only going to increase as time goes on. We still have 3 years left in this generation.
Price is King when consumers have demand for a product. Offering a cheaper 1080p-1440p device to a market looking for next gen gaming at 4k is a wasted endeavor and the results speak for themselves. Ever since the start of this gen even during the chip shortage and the pandemic the Series S was always available because the demand really wasnt there. People were buying PS5s and the Series X when it was available. The X model has sold more despite MS prioritizing S production. MS has produced more Series S models and sold more Series X models.

And how sure are you that this gen wont catch or surpass last gen in terms of hw sales. Most likely Sony will release another cheaper PS5 in 2 years and then release a PS6 and people will continue buying the PS5 during the crossgen period of next gen.
 
As well Series S is expensive in international markets after taxes. At that threshold it doesnt make sense to buy an S over an X or a PS5. I cant emphasize this enough.
It's unfortunate because the main market for consoles is in North America where international taxes aren't really apart of the conversation. There is a reason why Sony increased the price point of PS5 everywhere except for United States.
MS has produced more Series S models and sold more Series X models.
And they are largely 50/50 in terms of sales split, so yes, Series X did catch up to Series S. But it's not nearly as lopsided as you suggest this product is.
And how sure are you that this gen wont catch or surpass last gen in terms of hw sales. Most likely Sony will release another cheaper PS5 in 2 years and then release a PS6 and people will continue buying the PS5 during the crossgen period of next gen.
Because that's not how supply demand curves work. Demand is there for any product as long as the price point is there. Demand increases as price drops. There are no price drops coming for PS5 that will ever allow it to catch the price point of PS4. It's impossible for it to come down that much, and therefore demand is going to limited to those who can afford higher price points.
 
It's unfortunate because the main market for consoles is in North America where international taxes aren't really apart of the conversation. There is a reason why Sony increased the price point of PS5 everywhere except for United States.
I think you're mixing up some arguments and your point doesnt invalidate my prior argument it only supports it. Again, respectfully NA is the main market but there are more consoles sold outside NA than within NA and to add to that, a considerable amount of consoles sold in NA and recorded as NA sales are bought by tourists/relatives who are taking them back to Africa, South America, China!! I can tell you were not aware of this. All my consoles before I moved to the US were bought while my parents were on holiday in the US and brought back home to Africa. But in the statistics were registered as sold for the NA market. A huge part of the 360 success was it captured the international market as well a considerable amount of 360s registered as being sold for the NA market were actually bought in NA for people in Africa, South America and China.

And now back to my point, why would a kid buy a Series S in a local store in a high tax region of Africa or South America when they can have a relative buy a PS5 at the same cost in the US? Again the market outside the US is larger, but this doesnt mean the US/NA market isnt the largest specific region.

And they are largely 50/50 in terms of sales split, so yes, Series X did catch up to Series S. But it's not nearly as lopsided as you suggest this product is.
Its more like 51% in favour of the Series X. The point is MS produced more Series S models in the hopes of increasing market share but the demand wasnt there for that product. Consumers wanted a 4K gaming device for this gen PERIOD!! Imagine there were quarters early on where 70% of Series sales were Series S models but the X was running out of stock and today MS has sold more X models as they increased production. That tells you MS was/is possibly still sitting a large inventory of Series S models that arent being sold and genuinely the demand wasnt there for the S. It was always available even in those rare cases when it accounted for 70% of quarterly sales. If they havent yet prioritized X production then they better do.

Because that's not how supply demand curves work. Demand is there for any product as long as the price point is there. Demand increases as price drops. There are no price drops coming for PS5 that will ever allow it to catch the price point of PS4. It's impossible for it to come down that much, and therefore demand is going to limited to those who can afford higher price points.
You need to use Ceterus Paribus with every point you make in this regard because it depends on the price elasticity of demand of the product and what type of product. Demand increases as price drops for products generally but within context the Series S doesnt have a high price elasticity of demand for a simple reason. The Series S was being marketed as an alternative to the PS5 and MS's own Series X which are 4K gaming devices while the S is not. The lower price didnt offer a compelling reason for consumers not to have a 4K gaming device. In essence the price at which the Series S was being sold didnt meet the required price to match its price elasticity of demand if the aim was to sell as much or more than the PS5 which is a 4k gaming device. This is very basic economics one would have expected MS to use. But seems they depended on the marketing/sales team to drive decisions and not the Software/Hardware team and Finance teams. MS just ended up with a device that had lower demand, led to developer issues(Imagine there is still no Black Myth Wukong on the Xbox) in supporting two devices launched at the same time and sold slightly less than the Series X, yet being produced more of.
 
I don't think this is true. People want a console at Series S price points. I think we can agree that the problem with S is in it's specs, but again, I don't know how you can really get much better for that price at that time. Microsoft made Series S to hit a price point that consumers want them to hit, it's mostly the developers who want the extra hardware.
Yes but consumers would rather pay $399 -$699 for a 4K gaming machine than a 1080p-1440p device marketed as a next gen device. There has always been more demand for the Series X and PS5 than the Series S even when the Series S was more available during the start of the gen. Because consumers dont think it would be a good primary gaming machine. Its been bought in niche cases i.e Some parents wanted a cheap option for their kid who has no idea about games, Some parents buying a second option console so their kids dont bother them on their main machine, some last gen gamers who didnt want to invest into the current gen so quickly, some consumers who wanted a taste of the Xbox ecosystem to complement their PC or PS5 or Nintendo. All these are very niche and demand has still been towards the PS5 and Series X. The latter of which now represents at least 51% of all Series console sales despite not being as available during the start of the gen. I wouldn't be surprised if MS had serious inventory issues with overstocked Series Ss which in part prompted them to really push ahead with ditching hardware altogether moving forward.
 
No, their strategy is on a case by case basis. Not 100% on anything. What is so difficult to understand about that?
it could be that. Question is..., are you totally sure about that? That's the problem -I wouldn't be sure saying otherwise either-. They could make a press release and say: "we are going 100% multiplatform", or "we are launching games on the PS5 on a case by case basis". They said nothing on the matter.

Last time I heard there were no red lines, apparently. MS is now the biggest 3rd party publisher of the Playstation.
 
I know what's going on in the video game industry, so I also know that a hardware called a console in the traditional sense cannot be released at a low price in the next period. This is precisely why MS is expected to merge Xbox with PC. It is necessary to develop, and they must serve this development with new hardware.
this is the key imho. The market is in a very complex situation right now. What works for Sony might not work for MS and viceversa.

That's why MS can't show their cards. If they say "we are going multiplatform only", the Xbox brand will be shattered.

Going with exclusives like Sony doesn't work for them. So they go on a case by case basis. They study the numbers when they publish their games and decide on that. I'd say they are going almost 100% multiplatform if not 100% -people will realize that quite late, without announcements from MS-, imho. Too big shoes to fill for anyone.
 
This is patently untrue. Until September of this year Series S outsold Series X by a wide margin - 3:1

The article itself supports my argument. Total sales 51% to the X despite the Series S being more widely available earlier on in the gen i.e MS made more Series S consoles
 
Did you even read it? Nowhere does it say the above.
Not only did you not read my initial argument but you did not read the article you linked because it echoes my earlier statements.

"Circana which tracks US game spending in dollars, reports that the Xbox Series X accounted for 58% of all total Xbox Series units sold in September, and 51% of all Xbox Series units sold life to date".

"
Update 11:14am PT: We spoke with Piscatella about why the Series X has passed the S, and he had this to say:

Few things happening here as opposed to earlier in the cycle when S was leading. Of course, we have to start with supply. Series S was more widely available during 2020-2022, with X only getting fully in stock a few years after launch due to looks at everything 2020-2022.
"
I hope you now get my argument
 
No could be about it, it is exactly that -- "on a case by case basis". It is directly what the company has stated publicly.
I'll be very honest, this statement by Satya Nadella today doesnt sound like a case by case basis at all. If you play Xbox games on a Playstation or Nintendo or any device, then they're classifying it as an Xbox. We're in the earliest days of MS making Xbox hardware a very niche part of their strategy or completely getting rid of it entirely imho.

 
Not only did you not read my initial argument but you did not read the article you linked because it echoes my earlier statements.

"Circana which tracks US game spending in dollars, reports that the Xbox Series X accounted for 58% of all total Xbox Series units sold in September, and 51% of all Xbox Series units sold life to date".

"
Update 11:14am PT: We spoke with Piscatella about why the Series X has passed the S, and he had this to say:


"
I hope you now get my argument

Yes, I did not see that quote.
 
I'll be very honest, this statement by Satya Nadella today doesnt sound like a case by case basis at all. If you play Xbox games on a Playstation or Nintendo or any device, then they're classifying it as an Xbox. We're in the earliest days of MS making Xbox hardware a very niche part of their strategy or completely getting rid of it entirely imho.

There is a difference between playing xbox games via cloud streaming on different devices than the multiplatform effort. I don't know what more to say if you can't make that easy determination for yourself.
 
There is a difference between playing xbox games via cloud streaming on different devices than the multiplatform effort. I don't know what more to say if you can't make that easy determination for yourself.
Nope! You said titles will move on a case by case basis which isnt true based off current information. To prove it to you Jez has now written an article about it.HERE. Exclusives will be the exception and all Xbox games should be expected to be on the PS5 and Nintendo. The only games which may remain exclusive will be from teams that dont have the bandwidth to work on multiplatform titles.

Tbh I personally didnt have to wait for the article(his tweets are enough), he’s never lied about negative news about Xboc because he’s in large part paid to be optimistic even when things are obviously bad. So when he comes out to say something even midly negative it means the truth is even much worse. Its all part of a strategy to get you guys used to the idea Xbox as you know it is gone.


Within context, MS went from saying games were going to be exclusive, to it will be case by case to saying there are no red lines on which games will be moving to PS5, to now redefining what an Xbox is hardware wise and what an Xbox fan is.

As Jez puts it, its a strategy filled with risks and rewards. I commend him for writing a decent piece that outlines the merits and demerits of the strategy. But he’s been part of a large group of influencers in the know stringing uninformed Xbox fans into uncharted territory.
 


 
I think you're mixing up some arguments and your point doesnt invalidate my prior argument it only supports it. Again, respectfully NA is the main market but there are more consoles sold outside NA than within NA and to add to that, a considerable amount of consoles sold in NA and recorded as NA sales are bought by tourists/relatives who are taking them back to Africa, South America, China!!
I'm not mixing anything up. You're telling me: North America - which is US, Mexico and Canada: which combined represent over 40% of the entire market for consoles, that a considerable number of those sales are from tourists from Africa buying them and bringing them over the border. I'm sorry, you'd be lucky to represent a fraction of a % here of NA sales in such a niche scenario. Bring some data points that aren't anecdotal, because I can't find this anywhere written online.

The closest I could find was that people were exporting xbox series S consoles out of Brazil due to the exchange rate differences, they were willing to pay shipping and customs for it. MS closed that loophole and unfortunately made the price way to high for locals. But that would be the opposite of what you're suggesting here.
And now back to my point, why would a kid buy a Series S in a local store in a high tax region of Africa or South America when they can have a relative buy a PS5 at the same cost in the US? Again the market outside the US is larger, but this doesnt mean the US/NA market isnt the largest specific region.
That's not a Series S problem. How a country tax, duties and tarrifs a product is not the issue with the product. This has more to do with international shipping challenges and everything else encompassing it. Yes, if you can pay a little more to get a PS5 you would, because that is precisely what price elasticity is. MS is not a hardware company shipping all sorts of electronics around the world, and you guessed it, as many times discussed before, outside of America, Xbox has a very difficult time keeping the prices down. They do not have the logistics to move large amounts of hardware around as long as Sony has or does. This parallels to the fact that Africa has higher availability to purchase Coke over purchasing water. Which is why we see so many charities work with Coke, they have the distribution channels in Africa.
Its more like 51% in favour of the Series X
That's is what I mean by pretty much a 50/50 split.
That tells you MS was/is possibly still sitting a large inventory of Series S models that arent being sold and genuinely the demand wasnt there for the S. It was always available even in those rare cases when it accounted for 70% of quarterly sales. If they havent yet prioritized X production then they better do.
That tells me, that a lot of the people that wanted to buy a cheaper console got to do so right from the get go. And the people that wanted to pay for a better experience had to wait. If prices drop for both, then both will get more sales volume.
price elasticity of demand of the product and what type of product. Demand increases as price drops for products generally but within context the Series S doesnt have a high price elasticity of demand for a simple reason
All consoles are very elastic. An inelastic good is like gas. It doesn't matter what the price is, you must pay it because you need gas. Consoles are a luxury item, a complete luxury item. There are tons of alternatives to video gaming, one does not need to spend time or money on playing these video games, and you can see the mobile market actually represents the majority share of revenue in the gaming industry. Consoles are very elastic, if Series S was $99 dollars there would be a massive sales volume increase for it. There is no interest from MS to do this.
The lower price didnt offer a compelling reason for consumers not to have a 4K gaming device
Only 50% of the market has a 4K TV. Which is sizeable, but unnecessary for everyone to have a large 4K hulking device. Between Series X and Series S, Series S has the potential to reach impulse purchasing price points.
 
To be very fair, Phil had a huge role in atrophying the Xbox hardware ecosystem to the point that it doesnt make economic sense to have exclusives on the platform.
not sure Phil is to be blamed. He tried everything to get Xbox back on track, which meant returning to a traditional market and hardcore hardware design that didn't work as expected.

Xbox started to die after XB1, and it's not Phil's fault. A failure like that would be okay for Sony and Nintendo, which are instilled into our culture since a long time ago, but not for Xbox which only had the x360.

They left the PC aside for the Xbox and Valve got rich thanks to their failures, they didn't take care of Windows for gaming while the traditional Xbox model was crumbling, so they were failing at both ends, and now the world is changing.
 
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