Xbox Business Update Podcast | Xbox Everywhere Direction Discussion

[QPlayer]

Is it possible that Ms releases another 12TF home console in holiday 2026 which is $299?

It seems that shrinking of Series x GPU is harder because the die size is large. Can they use Zen4 or Zen5, and GPU 40 CUS with 2.4 GHz to backward compatible with Series x?

I'm also thinking about what they want to bring out as the next hardware. Due to the production costs, it looks like a maximum of 2-3 times the performance can be achieved at the console level in 2026. RT, which will be the basis of the graphics by then, requires too many resources and can only be implemented well with an expensive PC.

What can the Surface team know? If they really do it, what can be expected from there?

 

[Johnny Awesome]

The reason the next full console is coming "early" in 2026 is that it will likely be $599 or something to deliver the power they want. Probably with a lot more dedicated hardware for ML and RT. They can probably deliver 10x the performance if they do that. They can launch with Gears 6 to show it off.

 

[QPlayer]

The reason the next full console is coming "early" in 2026 is that it will likely be $599 or something to deliver the power they want. Probably with a lot more dedicated hardware for ML and RT. They can probably deliver 10x the performance if they do that. They can launch with Gears 6 to show it off.

Games are more important than hardware power. Maybe they will realize this and transfer the game development to a new Xbox launch. With exclusive games like Gears 6, Forza Horizon and Elders Scrolls 6 or similar caliber games. And I would drop PC day1 in their place, prioritize the console!

 

[iroboto]

Is it possible that Ms releases another 12TF home console in holiday 2026 which is $299?

It seems that shrinking of Series x GPU is harder because the die size is large. Can they use Zen4 or Zen5, and GPU 40 CUS with 2.4 GHz to backward compatible with Series x?

Unlikely. Part of the issue is that to feed more compute, it requires more bandwidth, which typically means a larger bus. The bus is hard to shrink if I recall correctly. You’re not likely to see at 12TF console in 2-3 years time.

There are different ways to go about it, faster chip, faster memory, but they all come with their own downsides, heat and yield and cost.

The best way forward for consoles is yo leverage accelerators again, ideally ML models etc since they appear to do heavy lifting with minimal energy cost. It’s going to come at image quality, but overall the games should look better with next gen

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Some items as fuel for speculation. IE - things that MS are either looking into, investing in and/or deploying shortly in Windows.

• NPU acceleration in Windows.
  • Using specialized hardware to accelerate AI functions in Windows
  • Intel and AMD are coming out with AI acceleration hardware structures in their CPUs.
  • Likely can also use GPUs for this, but for a console SOC, using AI structures on the CPU instead of using the GPU leaves more GPU headroom for rendering.
    • Likely reason that AI hasn't really featured in much on Xbox Series consoles as GPU power was seen to be better used for GPU rendering.
• Windows on ARM.
  • MS continues to focus R&D on Windows on Arm.
  • This includes partnering with Qualcomm for Microsoft branded ARM CPUs to use in Surface devices.
  • Qualcomm's exclusivity period of offering Windows on ARM CPU/SOCs is done or will soon expire, opening the door for others to enter the arena. Interesting side note - Samsung has a license to use AMD's GPU IP in their ARM SOCs.

There was something else that MS has been working on for Windows that would potentially apply to a console that I had in mind when starting this post, but it has slipped my mind as I got called away to do something in the middle of posting.

IMO - Xbox moving to ARM isn't out of the question, although I'm not sure it's something that would be ready for their next round of console hardware. Of course, if they have flawless BC of past Xbox games on a hypothetical ARM SOC, that makes it far more likely it would appear sooner rather than later.

Use of NPU hardware in the CPU portion of the SOC, IMO, is a no brainer for the next console SOC.

Use of CPU based NPUs has the potential to make MS's claims of really fast hardware a reality. The question, of course, is will it be useable within the living room console power envelope.

Regards,
SB

 

[Proelite]

I'm also thinking about what they want to bring out as the next hardware. Due to the production costs, it looks like a maximum of 2-3 times the performance can be achieved at the console level in 2026. RT, which will be the basis of the graphics by then, requires too many resources and can only be implemented well with an expensive PC.

What can the Surface team know? If they really do it, what can be expected from there?

2-3 times assuming AMD and 200 watts again.

 

[Nisaaru]

I get the impression MS toys with the idea of cloud gaming being good enough for the low-end/mobile and some more PC like device, maybe even licensed or completely "open", without the console compromises for people with higher expectations but don't want to bother with PCs.

They seem to think they can't directly compete against Sony by producing a similar product for the same "price" market.

With the lack of hardware options the potential to be significantly better than your console competition is limited if you're playing in the same price range. And with digital content libraries people won't move and AAA games are so expensive you need all platforms to finance them so there is no realistic chance to improve your market share doing the same.

If they think of Xbox "console" now as one of the targets in their multi platform PC/cloud-remote gaming strategy and not the primary device anymore this might even lead to the situation that the Xbox tax they ask for games becomes obsolete because everything is just running under the Windows ecosphere and they own half of the gaming studios anyway.

In such situation Independent game studios might be wondering why they would need to pay the Xbox tax anymore when MS itself would do what I outlined above. At the same time cutting that tax would make it more attractive too...

The question is how large is the current xbox customer base which would accept such a change and can live with GP cloud gaming or pay higher prices for better HW beyond Sony's market range?

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Why not make the next Xbox capable of running PS5 games through Windows?

It's an Xbox AND a PC.

It can't run PS6 games because of the added overhead, but who cares? By the time a PS6 game gets ported to PC they'll almost be onto the next console anyway.

 

[cheapchips]

Why not make the next Xbox capable of running PS5 games through Windows?

It's an Xbox AND a PC.

It can't run PS6 games because of the added overhead, but who cares? By the time a PS6 game gets ported to PC they'll almost be onto the next console anyway.

I've felt that they should do this for a while. This is essentially the Steamdeck model, but with an 'Xbox' dashboard as frontend instead Steam.

Spenser and team are well aware that Valve showed them up with their gaming PC portable console hybrid. They did it emulating Windows as well. Double insult to injury!

Xbox does carry a 20 year legacy of 'please keep Windows and Microsoft uncoolness away from us'. About time for them to get over it.

 

[Seanspeed]

Why not make the next Xbox capable of running PS5 games through Windows?

It's an Xbox AND a PC.

It can't run PS6 games because of the added overhead, but who cares? By the time a PS6 game gets ported to PC they'll almost be onto the next console anyway.

You mean running PS5 games natively?

Well because if Microsoft were actually putting effort into making PS5 emulation work on PC for their own financial benefit(to sell more consoles), Sony would come down with a massive legal hammer and shut those plans down easily and with a massive court-ordered $$$ gift from MS along with it.

At no point is Microsoft going to stumble upon the 'magic fairy formula' that lets them beat the traditional console model by some alternate method. And I feel the more they think they can, the more they will fail, because it will distract them ever more from executing on the basics that matter the most.

 

[Nisaaru]

You mean running PS5 games natively?

Well because if Microsoft were actually putting effort into making PS5 emulation work on PC for their own financial benefit(to sell more consoles), Sony would come down with a massive legal hammer and shut those plans down easily and with a massive court-ordered $$$ gift from MS along with it.

He meant PS5 games ported to PC.

 

[Seanspeed]

He meant PS5 games ported to PC.

So just an Xbox-spec'd PC?

Ok my bad, I misunderstood. But it goes exactly to what I was talking about in another thread, where this completely destroys the entire business model behind consoles. You cant subsidize hardware while also letting users easily bypass your entire ecosystem. At least not without supreme confidence that everybody is still gonna buy games from your store, which works for Valve, but wont work for Microsoft competing with Steam.

And if you're not subsidizing the hardware, you're just selling a PC like anybody else. Either way, either Playstation or Valve eats their lunch. Would be a disaster.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You mean running PS5 games natively?

Well because if Microsoft were actually putting effort into making PS5 emulation work on PC for their own financial benefit(to sell more consoles), Sony would come down with a massive legal hammer and shut those plans down easily and with a massive court-ordered $$$ gift from MS along with it.

I'm not sure they can. Emulation has been declared legal. MS couldn't provide the Sony firmware, but if you transfer your FW from a Sony console to a PC, that should have it covered.

What would stop the whole emulation would be the PSN issue. You couldn't connect to PSN without conforming to Sony's T&Cs and they could choose to block devices. You could only (legally) play games you ripped from disc in their 'no patch' broken flavour.

considering these games all have PC versions or likely PC ports, what's even is the point.

 

[Nisaaru]

So just an Xbox-spec'd PC?

Ok my bad, I misunderstood. But it goes exactly to what I was talking about in another thread, where this completely destroys the entire business model behind consoles. You cant subsidize hardware while also letting users easily bypass your entire ecosystem. At least not without supreme confidence that everybody is still gonna buy games from your store, which works for Valve, but wont work for Microsoft competing with Steam.

And if you're not subsidizing the hardware, you're just selling a PC like anybody else. Either way, either Playstation or Valve eats their lunch. Would be a disaster.

Right, I covered some angles to this in my longer post.

 

[Seanspeed]

I'm not sure they can. Emulation has been declared legal. MS couldn't provide the Sony firmware, but if you transfer your FW from a Sony console to a PC, that should have it covered.

What would stop the whole emulation would be the PSN issue. You couldn't connect to PSN without conforming to Sony's T&Cs and they could choose to block devices. You could only (legally) play games you ripped from disc in their 'no patch' broken flavour.

considering these games all have PC versions or likely PC ports, what's even is the point.

Emulation by non-commercial entities is very different than literally the biggest corporation in the world specifically developing emulation technology to adopt their rival games on their platform with the expectation it will add value to their paid hardware/ecosystem.

If this was legal, we'd have seen it before.

But yes, you're right that the online connectivity stuff would already be a deal-breaker when dealing with anything remotely modern.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If this was legal, we'd have seen it before.

I'm not sure "it hasn't happened yet" is legal proof. Another limiting factor is trademark infringement. You could add a NES emulator to your XBox or PS, but you likely couldn't talk about it and listing Nintendo titles on your store would probably be a no-no.

Xbox can already run emulators. Reading up, you can get RetroArch on XBox S|X. MS could host it, but they don't want to piss off their publishers who, for example, release their own titles on emulators, plus it's pretty much a given allowing emulators will see people play pirate copies instead of their own owned titles.

 

[Jay]

Got some catching up to do.
But just caught end of interview on BBC news about xbox putting games on other platforms.
Must be because of the Nintendo direct. But can't get more out there than bbc news.

One of the questions was is it admission of defeat as it will mean less sales of the console.
Answer was something like not necessarily? Need to wait and see. He seemed to be talking streaming and PC's though.

 

[cheapchips]

One of the questions was is it admission of defeat as it will mean less sales of the console.
Answer was something like not necessarily? Need to wait and see. He seemed to be talking streaming and PC's though.

The view that total exclusivity is required to drive hardware sales is not based on any hard data. It's based on the sentiments and anecdotes of forum dwelling gamers.

It's not that sentiment counts for nothing, but MS have much more data than us. You can obviously question whether they've interpreted it properly!

 

[SmooTh]

New Platforms, New Players: Four Fan-Favorite Xbox Games Coming to Nintendo Switch and Sony Platforms - Xbox Wire

Today, we announced the four fan-favorite Xbox games coming to Nintendo Switch and Sony platforms this spring. Our studios have drawn on their multi-platform experience to open their worlds to even more players.

news.xbox.com

 

[cheapchips]

And with those titles the winner is...UE4.

(With a bit of Unity for Pentiment)