Xbox 2007 or bust?

[blakjedi]

Quote taken from: http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16979


"Conclusion: The pressure is on Microsoft to really drive sales of the Xbox 360 this holiday season. If Halo 3 and other products fail to drive Xbox 360 sales, the system will soon flirt with numerous unsavory scenarios, the worst of which is the danger of becoming a distant third in the video game market share battle."

Some of their points ring true... but i must say that it is also driven by the expectation that the PS3's 2008 lineup will more than likely best x360's 2008 lineup... which cant honestly be taken as serious considering we have a very limited knowledge of 360s lineup. We know PS3's 2008 lineup because thats where PS3 is placing most of its eggs by necessity...

 

[quest55720]

I have been saying the same thing for a few months now. This is it for MS everything has come together for a huge holiday season. They now need to excute and not chicken out. There must be a second price cut this november before black friday. 279/349/449 will not get it done. This is it they can cement NA against sony and ensure to be at a minium a strong second in NA. Ms in the end probably will finish 3rd world wide no matter what but if they can be strong in NA they should be able to make lots of money.

Sony has the cards to play fall 2008 and I know they will play them. So MS better grow some balls and go for it.

 

[one]

What kind of sales figures can be called "success"? Better than the last year or as good as the Halo 2 period?

 

[Platon]

I have been saying the same thing for a few months now. This is it for MS everything has come together for a huge holiday season. They now need to excute and not chicken out. There must be a second price cut this november before black friday. 279/349/449 will not get it done. This is it they can cement NA against sony and ensure to be at a minium a strong second in NA. Ms in the end probably will finish 3rd world wide no matter what but if they can be strong in NA they should be able to make lots of money.

Sony has the cards to play fall 2008 and I know they will play them. So MS better grow some balls and go for it.

I didn't know that the core would only be lowered to 279. That is really a surprising move and indeed, they will for sure need a second price cut before the holidays, it is a put up or shut up time for MS now. I guess with this small price cut before Halo they might just be testing the waters and see the responce. If they feel that Halo3 did not promote the console enough they might opt for a second price cut a bit furter down the road...

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I don't think MS "needs" any of this. X360 is going to fly off shelves on the strength of its software library. The $50 price drop is just to raise consumer awareness and make them give the X360 a second look at the right time (ie. when Halo 3 and GTAIV are coming out). This $50 price cut may actually be enough.

It's possible that a $100 drop would be worth doing over a $50 drop, but it's hard to say what the impact would be. MS might be supply limited a little this season as well with the introduction of the Falcon.

Also, I don't think 2008 is going to be great for Sony unless they can get to $399 at most. MGS4, FFXIII, GT5 and KZ2 are heavy hitters, but at $499 or above consumers will probably wait.

 

[liolio]

I have been saying the same thing for a few months now. This is it for MS everything has come together for a huge holiday season. They now need to excute and not chicken out. There must be a second price cut this november before black friday. 279/349/449 will not get it done. This is it they can cement NA against sony and ensure to be at a minium a strong second in NA. Ms in the end probably will finish 3rd world wide no matter what but if they can be strong in NA they should be able to make lots of money.

Sony has the cards to play fall 2008 and I know they will play them. So MS better grow some balls and go for it.

For the article have to say that while I don't disagree on fact that MS has a huge game to play this chrismass.
I agree with you or scooby when you're saying that MS has to be more aggressive on the pricing, clearly the 360 will be two years old this fall...

But you and the article make it sound very "gloom and doom"

First I think even if Ms don't want to cut the price I can't think of them having a "plan B" (ie last minute 100$ cut or insane interesting bundle) if sales don't take off properly.

As for Ms finishing third, well at this point even if Ms finish third it's likely to be very tight with the second.

Sony himself hope to have sold 11 millions by the end of march and we all know that to do so they need to sell every single month more than what they sold during the first quarter. It's a pretty ambitious target.

Ok Ms has a huge opportunity and shouldn't take it cowardly but don't get it wrong the real pressure is on the Sony side.
BigN is out of range they have the hype and they can drop the price way below than what the others can do.... and still be profitable.

 

[pipo]

I don't think MS "needs" any of this.

I agree. I can't see PS3 closing the worldwide monthly sales gap anytime soon (I don't expect a massive turn around in Japan either).

By mid 2008 we'll have to look again what both parties have in store (software, price) for Q4.

Nintendo is another story though.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I don't really understand Sony's 2008 lineup giving them a huge advantage unless Microsoft doesn't have ANY good titles in 2008. If someone is looking to buy a new system, and they aren't brand loyal to one or the other, they're going to look at the entire catalog, not just the current years catalog. Microsoft's 2007 catalog is still going to be a strong selling factor in 2008 and in 2009, especially when those titles from 2007 are price reduced.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I agree. I can't see PS3 closing the worldwide monthly sales gap anytime soon (I don't expect a massive turn around in Japan either).

By mid 2008 we'll have to look again what both parties have in store (software, price) for Q4.

Nintendo is another story though.

That's all assuming Sony is not very aggressive with their pricecuts. If they go into holiday 08 at $350 or $399 or something like that, they definately have the potential to dwarf the 360's sales.

And Bluray gathers more and more appeal as time goes on.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

This is to be expected.

Every strategy has a downside. MS's goal for E3 was to promote Holiday 2007. In fact, the entire strategy for the 360 launching early was with a Holiday 2007 target. Obviously, if MS fails to dominate Holiday 2007, their strategy has failed and one does have to wonder if any sort of "plan b" can save them.

The issue is that MS was hugely successful with their E3 strategy. They've revealed a dominating Holiday 2007 lineup. So the "analysis" that "If the 360 can't win with this sort of domination, they're dead" is pedestrian to the point of being absurd. Furthermore, because MS put so much emphasis on Holiday 2007 at E3, the uninformed are left with the impression that 2008 is a void for the 360, and a battlefield that is already won by the PS3.

This can't be farther from the truth, as the 360 has many big titles scheduled for 2008. However, the downside of focusing on the present is that you momentarily concede the distant future.

 

[SugarCoat]

I don't really understand Sony's 2008 lineup giving them a huge advantage unless Microsoft doesn't have ANY good titles in 2008. If someone is looking to buy a new system, and they aren't brand loyal to one or the other, they're going to look at the entire catalog, not just the current years catalog. Microsoft's 2007 catalog is still going to be a strong selling factor in 2008 and in 2009, especially when those titles from 2007 are price reduced.

Alan Wake is the only one i know about but thats because its been shown off for awhile. I think we all know games can pop out of nowhere and in a matter of months be the next biggest thing so saying the 360 has nothing going for it in 08 really is, well, just a stupid thing to say.

That's all assuming Sony is not very aggressive with their pricecuts. If they go into holiday 08 at $350 or $399 or something like that, they definately have the potential to dwarf the 360's sales.

And Bluray gathers more and more appeal as time goes on.

That would be like suicide to investers. Their earnings wouldnt recoup for years if they did something like that without imposing an artificial supply limit. Its not like they've got a powerful gaming library for the PS3 to fall back on, and most of your customers interested in buying the hardware but no games is just bad news.

I don't think MS "needs" any of this. X360 is going to fly off shelves on the strength of its software library. The $50 price drop is just to raise consumer awareness and make them give the X360 a second look at the right time (ie. when Halo 3 and GTAIV are coming out). This $50 price cut may actually be enough.

It's possible that a $100 drop would be worth doing over a $50 drop, but it's hard to say what the impact would be. MS might be supply limited a little this season as well with the introduction of the Falcon.

Also, I don't think 2008 is going to be great for Sony unless they can get to $399 at most. MGS4, FFXIII, GT5 and KZ2 are heavy hitters, but at $499 or above consumers will probably wait.

Totally disagree. Price cuts can be the difference of a normal holiday sales or a great holiday sales. In the case of the 360 i really do think they could garner some fantastic attention. Software does not normally sell expensive systems, or what the average consumer sees as expensive, in any substantial amount as you pointed out with the PS3 in 08. What is true with them is absolutly true with Microsoft as the key pricepoint is sub $300. Microsoft should really have no excuse to be supply constrained either, not this far in, that would be a little pathetic. Many systems are still floating around in stock and they're going to have months more before the holidays to increase that stock with what they see fit.

 

[pipo]

If they go into holiday 08 at $350 or $399 or something like that, they definately have the potential to dwarf the 360's sales.

Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on the 360's line up and pricing too.

That's why I said we'll see what happens around this time next year.

Until then there's no problem at all when you look at PS3 vs 360 sales IMO.

 

[RobertR1]

If the neogaf poster, who was right on about the upcoming price drop, is correct about the $199, 299, 399 models in october, the 360 should do rather well this holiday season.

As much heat MS has received about the failure rates (rightfully so!) if the new models are stable, it'll generate even more interest. That 199/299/399 before November will be the key though.

 

[Zassk]

Alan Wake is the only one i know about but thats because its been shown off for awhile. I think we all know games can pop out of nowhere and in a matter of months be the next biggest thing so saying the 360 has nothing going for it in 08 really is, well, just a stupid thing to say.

Surely you know about a lot more than Alan Wake. Surely you are aware of these...

Fable 2, Gears of War 2, Halo Wars, Banjo Kazooie 3, Lost Odyssey, Cry On, Marvel Universe Online

This is just off the top of my head without research. I think we actually know about almost as many titles for the 360 as we do for the PS3 for 2008. It doesn't look like a weak lineup to me.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the 360's lineup will match the strength of MGS4 and GT5 and so on.

 

[blakjedi]

Surely you know about a lot more than Alan Wake. Surely you are aware of these...

Fable 2, Gears of War 2, Halo Wars, Banjo Kazooie 3, Lost Odyssey, Cry On, Marvel Universe Online

This is just off the top of my head without research. I think we actually know about almost as many titles for the 360 as we do for the PS3 for 2008. It doesn't look like a weak lineup to me.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the 360's lineup will match the strength of MGS4 and GT5 and so on.

Splinter Cell conviction slipped to 08... and we may see a Forza 3 in 08 as part 2 was orignially slated to ship in 06... Im thinking the MGS first party studios are doing an every other year policy... Too Human is probably going to arrive in 08 also...

 

[pipo]

Splinter Cell conviction slipped to 08... and we may see a Forza 3 in 08 as part 2 was orignially slated to ship in 06... Im thinking the MGS first party studios are doing an every other year policy... Too Human is probably going to arrive in 08 also...

Lionhead, Rare and Bungie all have multiple projects going on. Also, there are the two Webzen MMO's in development.

On top of that I'm sure there's a lot we don't know yet.

 

[infinity4]

any Tom Clancy games coming in 2008 (apart from SC:Conviction)? they always seemed to help 360 sales in my opinion, like games R6:V and GRAW2.

 

[dobwal]

Alan Wake is the only one i know about but thats because its been shown off for awhile. I think we all know games can pop out of nowhere and in a matter of months be the next biggest thing so saying the 360 has nothing going for it in 08 really is, well, just a stupid thing to say.

Well you have Halo Wars, Fable 2 and Splinter Cell 5 supposely coming 2008. Including Alan Wake, you see that MS doesn't necessarily have a void in its game releases in 2008.

Totally disagree. Price cuts can be the difference of a normal holiday sales or a great holiday sales. In the case of the 360 i really do think they could garner some fantastic attention. Software does not normally sell expensive systems, or what the average consumer sees as expensive, in any substantial amount as you pointed out with the PS3 in 08. What is true with them is absolutly true with Microsoft as the key pricepoint is sub $300. Microsoft should really have no excuse to be supply constrained either, not this far in, that would be a little pathetic. Many systems are still floating around in stock and they're going to have months more before the holidays to increase that stock with what they see fit.

Looking at the last generation, price cutting before or during holidays isn't a readily use strategy in the US by the big 3. There are only two instances of price cutting during later summer or fall in the US. Nintendo instituted a price cut to $99.00 in Sep 2003 and Sony instituted a official price cut to $179.99 in Aug 03. However, an unofficial/temporary price cut was already in place for $179.99 since May 03. Price cuts are usually used in the spring to boost demand during the slower months where consumers are more price sensitive, where as in the holiday months that less the case. People are more apt to buy during the holidays, which is further augmented by the fact most of the must have titles are released during this time of year.

 

[quest55720]

If the neogaf poster, who was right on about the upcoming price drop, is correct about the $199, 299, 399 models in october, the 360 should do rather well this holiday season.

As much heat MS has received about the failure rates (rightfully so!) if the new models are stable, it'll generate even more interest. That 199/299/399 before November will be the key though.

You are absolutely right it comes down to if they have the nuts to do a second price drop and supply of the falcons. MS needs both to happen to have a monster xmass and be able to carry that momentum into 2008. Every casual MS can steal this xmass is one less for sony in 2008.

MS needs as much momentum as they can because MGS4, GT5 and KZ2 are coming. As good as gears of war 2 will be it won't be able to compete graphically with KZ2. As nice as the UE3 engine is it can't compete against 100+ people working to the metal getting every bit they can out of the PS3.

 

[thatdude90210]

If the neogaf poster, who was right on about the upcoming price drop, is correct about the $199, 299, 399 models in october, the 360 should do rather well this holiday season.

As much heat MS has received about the failure rates (rightfully so!) if the new models are stable, it'll generate even more interest. That 199/299/399 before November will be the key though.

You missed-read that what the guy at gaf wrote. The core is going to be $249. That's a huge difference. Sure a $199 core is attractive, but at $249 it's not very attractive next to a $299 premium.