Will Warner support Blu-ray?

[War]

Re: IHD
For that reason alone, HD-DVD should die. iHD is a lame proprietary MS xml format for specifying interactivity, which is immature and inferior to a full blown Java interactivity layer based on a mature Java platform, which is far more open than MS.

You must be joking iHD is based on Microsoft xml.

 

[Powderkeg]

Having a fragmented HD optical media market only exacerbates the problem of getting HDTV mainstream.

I don't think so. The first problem with getting HDTV mainstream is simply price. You've got to be able to price it so everyone can buy one. They are coming down in price, but they aren't there yet. It's still widely considered a toy of the upper middle class.

I honestly don’t think HD-DVD is going to make it to the marketplace.

That would be foolish to think.

 

[DemoCoder]

You must be joking iHD is based on Microsoft xml.

No, I am not joking. iHD is, from best available information, nothing more than a XML description of the interactivity, probably akin to HTML + SMIL + CSS. A way to describe how HD-DVD menus look, are layed out, and how they animate, plus behavioral transistions.

BDJ will allow discs to be developed with much more interactive features. Imagine learning/education/reference discs with games for children, or with a search engine to quickly find content, etc. Or what about a "Become a Director/Editor" bonus feature that lets you "reedit" a scene by creating an edit decision list. The possibilities are endless, especially with internet connected players. I forsee online contents, sweepstakes, scavenger hunts, etc.

HD-DVD will be completely dead in 3 years time.

 

[sonycowboy]

No, I am not joking. iHD is, from best available information, nothing more than a XML description of the interactivity, probably akin to HTML + SMIL + CSS. A way to describe how HD-DVD menus look, are layed out, and how they animate, plus behavioral transistions.

BDJ will allow discs to be developed with much more interactive features. Imagine learning/education/reference discs with games for children, or with a search engine to quickly find content, etc. Or what about a "Become a Director/Editor" bonus feature that lets you "reedit" a scene by creating an edit decision list. The possibilities are endless, especially with internet connected players. I forsee online contents, sweepstakes, scavenger hunts, etc.

HD-DVD will be completely dead in 3 years time.

http://www.blu-raydisc.com/Section-13627/Index.html

BD-ROM has 3 layers of interactivity.

a) Standard DVD type functionality
b) Super DVD menu type functionality ("HDMV" mode)
c) Java application. ("BD-J" mode)

In addition, the Java applications support internet connectivity for those who are connected.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Will someone be hacking my BRD player? Will I need to install a firewall and virus-killer and anti-spam? I just want to watch movies. I get enough grief of this rubbish with my PC. When the rest of my consumer electronics goods are internet enabled and open to hacking, I'm packing up and becoming a caveman...

 

[Lysander]

OK, this is my take. It is very stupid from US movie corporations to allow the absolute dominance of Sony on dvd teritory. It would be much better to create "status quo" with 2 types of hd disc or create unified type of hd disc where no company has absolute power.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Why does Sony have absolute power? I thought it was a consortium of LOADS of companies, all wiht they're input. Sony can't make changes without everyone else's consent, or they just plain won't implement them.

 

[sonycowboy]

More on the Sony / Time Warner negotiations:

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2005/tc2005105_6128_tc024.htm

THREE POINTS.
Backers of the competing technologies have been tussling for support from Hollywood to insure that consumers would be able to buy movies from all the studios for whatever technology gets to market first. Thus, Warner, which traditionally has among the heftiest box office market shares, would be key for Sony.

On top of that, Warner, which owns 11 patents to make DVDs, had been a leader in assembling the Hollywood studios that backed Toshiba's HD DVD format. And in the mid-90s, Warner and Toshiba had beaten Sony's efforts to have its technology adopted for the standard definition DVD, with most of the technology based on patents controlled by Toshiba, Warner, and other companies. Sony had some of its patents adopted by the standard definition DVD.

Neither Sony nor Warner would discuss their talks. But those with knowledge of the negotiations say they have focused on three key areas: the cost of producing the DVDs, how Sony would treat Warner's patents, and guarantees that the Blu-ray disk can be manufactured on time. Additionally, the sides are said to be discussing whether Blu-ray licensees, which include computer makers Dell (DELL ) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ ) and DVD makers Samsung and Pioneer (PIO ), would be able to link to computers based on Microsoft's Windows software.

NOT OVER YET.
At present, Blu-ray uses Java software. Hollywood insiders say that Sony has also been offering studios a cap on the costs of producing its Blu-ray disks and perhaps some break on royalties for its patents. That might enable Warner to get a break on the so-called cross-licensing of its patents -- where the costs for its patents are traded off against the cost of patents it uses that are controlled by members of the Sony consortium.

 

[Lysander]

Why does Sony have absolute power? I thought it was a consortium of LOADS of companies, all wiht they're input. Sony can't make changes without everyone else's consent, or they just plain won't implement them.

When agreement is on and only one standard is out, sony will have much bigger negotiating power to coerce consent to others. How you can say no if there is no alternative?

 

[aaronspink]

This scenario becomes less likely as more studios defect to the BD side. What content/reason is there to get a HD-DVD player? You know the adoption rate will be low to begin with, and the price relatively high. These are known factors based on previous CE trends. What you propose is an unlikely proposition designed more to prop up a losing argument than to provide evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) of a realistic alternative. In the unlikely event that Satan walked the earth, all the religions go out the window. PEACE.

What happens when Warner Brother's offers $10 HD-DVD/DVD disks in the supermarket aisle?

Lets remember that one of the major disconnects right now between Warner Brother's and the other studios is that Warner believes that the overall market is much bigger by going after volume vs going after margin. Warner has sold a large number of movies at $5-7 dollars as impulse items. I mean, who wouldn't want to own a copy of Caddy Shack for $5+tax?

Aaron Spink
speaking for myself inc.

 

[hongcho]

iHD is basically AJAX (you know the tool that Google uses all the time?) with media-related interfaces.

As for Warner... I am sure DVD Forum (or Toshiba for that matter) would be everything in their power to keep Warner with them. Otherwise, it is really a lost cause.

Hong.

 

[DemoCoder]

The people who own HDTVs today are not the people who early adopt and make impulse buys of $5 caddy shack DVDs at Walmart.

People who early adopt HDTV and HD optical will be people with an appreciation for blockbuster films encoded in the highest quality. These are the kind of people who bought Criterion DVDs when DVD players first came out, and got Widescreen SuperBit versions of their favorite movies.

All HD optical revenue in the first few years is going to be driven by early adopters. By the time the "mass market" arrives, BD discs will plenty cheap. Moreover, the profit made on per disc sales is pure cream, since they will mostly be reselling old movie content in their library that they have already sold as DVDs. So they get to sell the same movie twice.

 

[DemoCoder]

iHD is basically AJAX (you know the tool that Google uses all the time?) with media-related interfaces.

As for Warner... I am sure DVD Forum (or Toshiba for that matter) would be everything in their power to keep Warner with them. Otherwise, it is really a lost cause.

Hong.

AJAX is DHTML/JavaScript with call-backs to the server-side using HTTP.

With iHD, there is no "server". Ergo, iHD is not AJAX.

Maybe you meant to say "JavaScript" or "VBScript".

 

[AlphaWolf]

The people who own HDTVs today are not the people who early adopt and make impulse buys of $5 caddy shack DVDs at Walmart.

Well from my own perspective I would have to disagree with this statement. Although I did buy it in a 2pak with another movie for $12 cdn.

 

[Acert93]

The people who own HDTVs today are not the people who early adopt and make impulse buys of $5 caddy shack DVDs at Walmart.

People who early adopt HDTV and HD optical will be people with an appreciation for blockbuster films encoded in the highest quality. These are the kind of people who bought Criterion DVDs when DVD players first came out, and got Widescreen SuperBit versions of their favorite movies.

?

From the people I know who own HDTVs they are people who either wanted a big screen TV and got an HDTV for future proofing (which are screwed due to no HDMI), got ringed into it, or were replacing a TV.

I know a number of people who have gotten HDTVs and all of them buy $5 movies, none of them are technically savvy, and almost all of them were looking for bigger screens and something "future proof"

Heck, not a single one I know can tell you if their set is 720p or 1080i.

At the end of this year there will be about ~15M HDTV sets installed in US homes. I honestly do not know all of them, but the ones I do know do NOT fit your description. Your discription fits YOU. And I hardly believe you or me are the average consumer buying HDTVs.

You are correct: HD optical media will be driven by early adopters--specifically "savvy" ones.

The problem is DVDs took off partially because it was a no brainer + anyone and everyone could benefit. The people I know have no clue what BR or HD DVD is or that it is even coming. And after explaining it to them, you let them know it wont work on their HDTV out of the box due to the lack of HDMI or DVI+HDCP and they shrug and tell me that DVD looks great to them--a lot better than TV and similar to their HD TV signals.

BR and HD DVD costs will fall by the time they hit mainstream, but if this bickering among the companies continues it may be all pointless. The HDTV market is not big enough--unlike the TV install base--to fragment the market. They may just as well be shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[wco81]

Some details on how Sony may be courting Warners:

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2005/tc2005105_6128_tc024.htm

So a cap or indemnity on production costs, sweetheart deal on royalties and maybe some kind of cross-patent deal.

For all that, Warners better support full tilt and maybe go exclusive Blu-Ray.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

When agreement is on and only one standard is out, sony will have much bigger negotiating power to coerce consent to others. How you can say no if there is no alternative?

Negotiating power to do what? The standard is set, with Java and codecs etc. It'll get produced and fabbed with electronics manufacturers making players that conform to these stadards, and movie publishers printing discs to these standards. What are Sony then going to do? The contracts have been signed and fees agreed upon before-hand. And if Sony want to add features or whatever, the rest of the BlueRay cast can ignore them and carry on with the original standard as is. I don't see where Sony first of all are in a position to dictate to other companies, nor any reason to think they would do as much. What of CD's and DVD's creators? They've had a monopoly on the patents. Have they dictated and coerced, and what have they got companies doing that those companies would rather not do, ut have to in order to fit in with the format?

 

[wco81]

Remember, Congress wants to fix a hard date for the completion of the digital TV transition. By the end of the decade, they want to turn off analog broadcasts. That means everyone will need a digital TV (most of which are HDTVs except for the people who are buying EDTV plasmas) or an adapter to convert digital transmissions to analog video. They're also talking about helping poor families by subsidizing these "adapter" set tops.

So they won't get HDTV resolutions but they will probably get a cleaner reception signal to view on older TVs. But we're not as far away from $300 HDTVs as one might think. I've seen some 26 or 27-inch CRT HDTVs at the Wal Marts and Best Buys but those may have lacked HDMI. For instance, go to Amazon and search for Samsung TXN2668WHF at $400. So some lower-income people may be able to upgrade to an HDTV with HDMI and built-in tuner by the end of the decade at price points they're used to.

Now if they can get a player out there for low enough price, people could start collecting HD movie discs right away, even before buying an HDTV. I'm not even talking about hybrid discs. These HD players should have at least a S-video output, maybe even composite, the same way consoles support RF still (wouldn't be surprising if the next-gen consoles still support RF). They won't enjoy the benefits of the HD movies through a S-video connection but when they finally get an HDTV, the movies they already collected will have a new lease on life.

 

[Lysander]

What of CD's and DVD's creators?

I do not know how patent regulations and royaltis are set in US, but Sony is putting all out for bluray acceptance and there must be a reason for this; my understandment is that Sony is the main owner of blu ray patent, and that they will take fees from everything sold on that. Changing standards in future, why not? Any consortium manufacturing company does not want to comply? Good, it can go and be replaced with someone else. Any movie company does not want to comply? That will not happen cause they will have no other medium left.

Really who were cd and dvd creators?

 

[slider]

I do not know how patent regulations and royaltis are set in US, but Sony is putting all out for bluray acceptance and there must be a reason for this; my understandment is that Sony is the main owner of blu ray patent, and that they will take fees from everything sold on that. Changing standards in future, why not? Any consortium manufacturing company does not want to comply? Good, it can go and be replaced with someone else. Any movie company does not want to comply? That will not happen cause they will have no other medium left.

Really who were cd and dvd creators?

Slightly OT but still...
We see the furore (on the boards at least!) in deciding which one will eventually win out: HD-DVD or BR. That includes wild speculation on uptake and consumer views of the products.
Having said that I doubt when, (or if), BR wins out, "Sony" or any other BR backer will be trying to change any standards.
If you have to fight long and hard (which I'm not commenting on at all) to establish your format why then would you, having gained victory, go through a battle again? It just doesn't make sense.