Wither Warner?
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Blu-ray did a whopping 76:24 ratio the week ending December 9; aka. PotC: At World's End-week. Combined with 'the usual' slew of BOGO sales, this yielded their second best week (in terms of market share) this year.
I expect the HD DVD camp to have pulled out the stops for next (this) week, though, ending December 16; aka. The Bourne Ultimatum-week. Perhaps hoping to win Nielsen for the first time since the PS3 launched, giving them some momentum going into the new year.
I'd be very, very surprised if Warner announced any change of policy at CES.
My theory is that the Harry Potter discs coming on out both sides will raise the volumes enough to dent the percentage impact of Jason Bourne somewhat.
The rat-a-tat-tat two-fer sales offers are really something. Tho I could wish they weren't so fragmented. Sometimes the list is small enough I find one I'm willing to buy, but not a partner to go with it.
Warner were in bed with Toshiba and the DVD forum were'nt they? If I understand correctly, Warner wasnt pleased with security offered by the HD DVD camp, so went neutral. Given that they could also end the war by going Blu-ray, doesnt that suggest that Warner might be going Blu even if its after CES?
I gather this week's Nielsen/Videoscan results were moderately disappointing to the HD DVD camp. Some of them thought it possible that Jason Bourne would vault them to something close to parity for the week, or possibly even a win. Still came out 61-39 for B-r (which is at least respectable for HD DVD, but tough if that's going to be their "good" weeks).
So, Warner has now had two high-profile Blu-ray snafu's in the last couple weeks. One was in apparently inserting some HD DVD discs of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire into the HP B-r collection. The second was releasting a Terminator 3 B-r disc that is 1080i-only, rather than 1080p as advertised.
These are the kind of public relations embarrassments that can cause changes to be made. They could go either way tho. They could just as easily claim that trying to do dual format causes a much higher QA mountain to climb, and they're tired of that, so they'll focus on the higher selling one only (B-r). Or they could say that B-r seems to be where they have their problems so they'll quit doing it and focus on the one that's easier for them to deal with (HD DVD).
Or, of course, they could do nothing. But it does seem curious that at the time when everyone is giving them a hard stare to see if they're going to make a move, these kinds of issues arise.
These are the kind of public relations embarrassments that can cause changes to be made. They could go either way tho. They could just as easily claim that trying to do dual format causes a much higher QA mountain to climb, and they're tired of that, so they'll focus on the higher selling one only (B-r). Or they could say that B-r seems to be where they have their problems so they'll quit doing it and focus on the one that's easier for them to deal with (HD DVD).
Or, of course, they could do nothing. But it does seem curious that at the time when everyone is giving them a hard stare to see if they're going to make a move, these kinds of issues arise.
It's enough for HD DVD to stay alive. Eventually their hardware sales will catch up to the PS3 and things will even out. I consider 60-40 to be very good considering HD DVD's current position.
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Do you have any data that shows the sales of HD-DVD players trending upwards against the sales of PS3s? For some reason I assumed it was the other way around, that the ratio of PS3s to HD-DVD player sales was increasing so I'm curious about this.
Think long term. Toshiba sold 90,000 HD DVD (it's HD DVD btw not HD-DVD) players in one day at $99 (I expect in a few months that prices will be around that area permanently). For a long time PS3 was selling ~100,000 units a month. I think it's conceivable within two years HD DVD players will be outselling PS3's (considering not every PS3 will be used as a Blu-ray player). As the war continues on and on, less and less the PS3 becomes an advantage to the Blu-ray group (I think it's pretty hard to argue otherwise, which is essentially what you are trying to do).
Hmm, well I prefer to think in the here-and-now thank you.
And FYI I bought one of those cheap players from Walmart.Anyhoo, supposedly with the recent price cut, PS3s have increased sales but honestly I don't know if this is the 100K figure you cite or not.
What happens to your long term prediction if both PS3s and BR players drop in price - which assuredly they will?
Technically I'm not putting forth an argument so much as questioning yours. I don't believe the PS3 is going to be the long term work horse for the BR camp but I expect it to be a powerful tool for the short to mid term battle - and perhaps that's all that is necessary to secure victory for them.
Just so you know, I don't have a BR player whatsoever (no PS3 either).
Ok, but if you're going to use holiday sale specific sales figures for one side you need to use them for the other as well, and if we do that the PS3 is still out-selling standalone HD DVD players by at least 4:1.
willardjuice said:
Here's the difference, PS3 will return to its normal low sales after the holidays while HD DVD sales will continue to grow (especially after it goes to $100).
This is a war not a battle. I advise you to rethink your philosophy.
Well the PS3 sold 121k in October even after the introduction of the 40GB model. While sales for November and December will be higher, I expect the PS3 to return to the 100k-200k range after the holidays.
I don't foresee the PS3 dropping to $100 anytime soon. With standalone players it's not cut and dry. There are a lot of obsolete (Blu-ray 1.0) players out there right now (there's only two Blu-ray 1.1 players, one of which is the PS3 and there's only one Blu-ray 2.0 player, again the PS3). Undoubtedly these players will be on the cheaper side, but I wonder if they ever will be available in large quantities (I assume they are being phased out). I don't see a new Blu-ray player being released at a $100-$300 price point (at least in 2008).
And yet it's the only Blu-ray 2.0 capable drive atm. I agree though, without the PS3 Blu-ray is DOA.
As long as we are all coming clean, I own a HD-A2, PS3, and the LG combo HD DVD/Blu-ray drive for the PC. Ironically I use my PS3 exclusively for Blu-ray and folding (I don't own, nor will I ever own a PS game).
And for the record, I wrote this post three times. The first time the power went off while I was spell checking. The second, I was literally two seconds away from clicking "Submit Reply" and the power went out again (my mouse was so close to the button)! The third time I just wrote it in Word saving every few lines (of course the power did not turn off then
) and then copied/pasted it over. So you guys better appreciate this post! Can I borrow that crystal ball of yours sometime? All you have is conjecture.
Oh please you can't possibly expect the PS3 to sustain 400k+ units a month after the holidays; that's just absurd.
Sooner than later. Canada is having their $99 HD-A3 sale tomorrow. I think it's pretty clear the writing is on the wall.
Who knows what the PS3 will do in a couple months. All I know is that the current sales trend is upwards, and until it reverses I have to give Sony the benefit of the doubt and believe that their previously (relatively) poor sales have finally turned around. If starting in January the sales immediately go back to their old numbers and stay that way for several months, then it would be fair to say the spike in sales last month (and presumably this month as well) was simply that.
Will they do 400k units per month indefinitely? I doubt it. Will they do more than the previous ~100k per month? I have every reason to believe so. Their 2008 lineup is arguably the strongest in the industry, with exclusives like MGS4, GT5, and LBP guaranteed to be multi-million unit movers.
And I have a few unicorns I want to sell you...
No offense but as I have pretty much zero at stake, it's A-OK for me to focus on whatever window I wish.
Were I betting on one side or the other, than I'd be foolish not to take a longer term looksee.Thanks for the #s. At a $99 price point, just how many HD DVD players do you expect to move a month?
I'll defer to your deeper experience on this subject as I have zero knowledge of BR players out there. I know that Onecall is selling two BR players as we speak for $299 but I have zero clue as to their version #. On the subject matter of BR players, are versions locked? That is, is it impossible for a 1.1 player to be upgraded to 2.0?
And what exactly does 2.0 get you anyhow? Do discs not work on older machines or is that a distinct possibility of some sort?
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