Rumor of Universal going neutral:

[RobertR1]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=845226

German translation:
"Universal reportedly leaves HD-DVD camp

In a press conference, spokesmen of Blu-ray supporter Pioneer claimed, that Universal Home Entertainment will cancel the exclusive contract with the HD-DVD camp respectively their biggest hardware company, Toshiba. They said, the contract has already been cancelled, it just didn't come operative yet. If this is true, Universal would be free (on a long term) to publish movies for the competing format Blu-ray Disc, and the HD DVD Promotion Group would lose their only supporter among the Hollywood studios, after Paramount and Warner already left.

At the end of January, Universal affirmed their support for HD DVD and announced 100 releases for the year, and rejected any cooperatoin with the Blu-ray camp. The exclusive Blu-ray supporters are Fox, Disney and Sony, while Warner and Paramount (including Dreamworks) publish for both formats. The strategy of publishing for both formats could be profitable for Universal: The percentage of the studio at the HD DVD sales between January 1st and March 18th war 35.6%, but only 11.1% of the total HD sales. In the same period, Warner sold 46.4% of the HD DVDs and 19.3% of the BLu-ray Discs, and is #1 in all HD sales with 27.7 percent.

Universal Pictures Germany did not comment this, while Toshiba Germany said, they don't know anything about Universal leaving HD DVD."


Waiting on "insider" word for confirmation.

 

[Zaphod]

While a blow for HD-DVD (if true), it doesn't really change anything. They still need to hit the mass-market electronics chains first with a player that can steal market share from $99 DVD players. If/when that happens we might see a swing the other way. The Blu-ray exclusive studios have to be worried about the lackluster sale of standalone players as the PS3 (while currently giving a boost) can't possibly win the war all by itself.

 

[Maintank]

Whoever sells to the masses wins. If the sutdio execs think they can keep their margins higher by going BluRay they are clueless. Artificially high prices will only drive people to the competitior. When millions of people buy a HD-DVD player and you sell BluRay discs, houston you have a problem. Translation is, nobody is buying your movies and revenues tank.

 

[Titanio]

While a blow for HD-DVD (if true), it doesn't really change anything. They still need to hit the mass-market electronics chains first with a player that can steal market share from $99 DVD players. If/when that happens we might see a swing the other way. The Blu-ray exclusive studios have to be worried about the lackluster sale of standalone players as the PS3 (while currently giving a boost) can't possibly win the war all by itself.

As long as it keeps momentum on Blu-ray's side until "mass market players" arrive, it will have done its job admirably.

Anyway, whilst I hope that rumour is true, I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in it for now. If it is true, you most certainly will have a defacto standard IMO. I'm not sure if people will buy a HD-DVD player just because it is cheap(er). People don't buy things because they're cheap if it's clear they're not the way to go. We'll see though.

 

[Zaphod]

People don't buy things because they're cheap if it's clear they're not the way to go.

Depends. Even in the US (with its reasonable HD TV penetration) the market for 'next gen high definition optical format player' is pretty damned small. However, the market for 'thing that plays movies on my new TV' is >20 million units a year. Provide a value proposition to those customers at a price point low enough to not be 'an investment', and consumers will care just as little about format than the masses who're now buying a $400 'flatscreen' for the bedroom care about the plasma/LCD wars fought in early adopter circles a couple of years ago.

 

[AlNom]

What if the competition gets so far along that both formats have a high penetration that it'd be useless to just get rid of one format altogether? Taking it to the extreme, I mean something along the lines of NTSC vs. PAL or even DVD+R/DVD-R, where both co-exist still.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

What if the competition gets so far along that both formats have a high penetration that it'd be useless to just get rid of one format altogether? Taking it to the extreme, I mean something along the lines of NTSC vs. PAL or even DVD+R/DVD-R, where both co-exist still.

<snigger> That would be the worst of all worlds for the media cartel. They'd have to invest in two sets of inventory, two sets of pressing plants, print every movie twice, etc. I doubt the retailers would stand for it. They'd either have to double their shelf space to carry two of every title, or only stock half as many titles.

I bet you'd see a sharpish move towards dual format players - the media companies and the retailers would insist on it. Heck, so would the customer.

 

[SPM]

While a blow for HD-DVD (if true), it doesn't really change anything. They still need to hit the mass-market electronics chains first with a player that can steal market share from $99 DVD players. If/when that happens we might see a swing the other way. The Blu-ray exclusive studios have to be worried about the lackluster sale of standalone players as the PS3 (while currently giving a boost) can't possibly win the war all by itself.

Actually this would be a very big deal. If you were offered the choice expensive player that could never have a hope in hell of playing HD movies from 3 out of the 6 major movie studios, and another expensive player that can play every single HD movie from all 6 major studios, I know which I would pick.

 

[Titanio]

Depends. Even in the US (with its reasonable HD TV penetration) the market for 'next gen high definition optical format player' is pretty damned small. However, the market for 'thing that plays movies on my new TV' is >20 million units a year. Provide a value proposition to those customers at a price point low enough to not be 'an investment', and consumers will care just as little about format than the masses who're now buying a $400 'flatscreen' for the bedroom care about the plasma/LCD wars fought in early adopter circles a couple of years ago.

I don't think so. This is a format war, not a TV technology war. The consumer with the plasma isn't going to end up hurting much, but the consumer buying into a format with significantly less support very well might when the content they want isn't available.

HD-DVD has a credibility problem, IMO, and this would seal that. Nothing would drive consumers away more than to think that HD-DVD is going to lose. Being cheaper in fact, might only reinforce the perception that it's a sinking ship. You want to be cheap, and you want to have credibility. Blu-ray has the latter, and it won't be far behind HD-DVD on pricing.

 

[Ty]

Whoever sells to the masses wins. If the sutdio execs think they can keep their margins higher by going BluRay they are clueless. Artificially high prices will only drive people to the competitior. When millions of people buy a HD-DVD player and you sell BluRay discs, houston you have a problem. Translation is, nobody is buying your movies and revenues tank.

Assuming the rumor is true, I don't think your post is speaking to the rumor. As I understand it, Universal is thinking about selling BOTH HD-DVD & BR. For now, sales of BR discs seem to be trending better than HD-DVD. By selling both, Universal is hoping to get a piece of that.

 

[AlNom]

<snigger> That would be the worst of all worlds for the media cartel. They'd have to invest in two sets of inventory, two sets of pressing plants, print every movie twice, etc. I doubt the retailers would stand for it. They'd either have to double their shelf space to carry two of every title, or only stock half as many titles.

I suppose, but then how is that any different from the companies that already handle both formats?

I bet you'd see a sharpish move towards dual format players - the media companies and the retailers would insist on it. Heck, so would the customer.

Yup.

 

[Zaphod]

HD-DVD has a credibility problem, IMO, and this would seal that. Nothing would drive consumers away more than to think that HD-DVD is going to lose.

I think you're overestimating how much 'Joe consumer' know and care about these things. As I mentioned, I believe the winner of this war will be the first to successfully compete with good old DVD and have their players replace a DVD sale. That's where the ball will start rolling, and there price is very important (think of it as a DVD player with a HD bonus rather than an investment in a particular format). The consumers who are already decided on a HD standalone and the PS3 purchasers are distinct and (much) smaller groups of consumers.

Though, as you said; we'll see...

 

[Random Digital]

I think you're overestimating how much 'Joe consumer' know and care about these things. As I mentioned, I believe the winner of this war will be the first to successfully compete with good old DVD and have their players replace a DVD sale. That's where the ball will start rolling, and there price is very important (think of it as a DVD player with a HD bonus rather than an investment in a particular format). The consumers who are already decided on a HD standalone and the PS3 purchasers are distinct and (much) smaller groups of consumers.

Though, as you said; we'll see...

Actually "Joe consumer" may be more concerned that they can't buy Fox, Disney and Sony movies on HD-DVD and if Universal makes the trip over I think that would pretty much end the format war.

Of course "Joe Consumer" would have to own a nice HDTV and be willing to pay $20 instead of $10 for "Girls Gone Wild", before making the move to either format.

At this point I don't see DVD going away. So the HD video market will be more of a niche\enthusiast type thing.

 

[RobertR1]

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/05/09/universal-responds-to-reports-of-going-neutral/

"Wow, that didn't take very long; Craig Kornblau, the President of Universal Studios Home Entertainment tells us in an email that the rumors that Universal will support Blu-ray "are totally false"."

 

[willardjuice]

Is anyone actually surprised? I still think if any studio were to go neutral, it would be Disney.