Will Warner support Blu-ray?

[avaya]

And you've spoken with the CEO's of both companies to confirm this, right?



They will go where the consumer goes, and the consumer usually goes with what is familiar, even if it's inferior. (See the PS2 sales if you need proof.)

So, which is more familiar to the average consumer? The name "Bluray" or something called HD-DVD?


This "war" will be won or lost in end-user sales. In the end, the question is which product will they buy, not which company thinks BluRay or HD-DVD is the best. Right now, there aren't enough HDTV owners out there to make either of these formats a clear winner. DVD will still reign supreme for at least the next 3-4 years as a minimum, and just because a lot of PS3's are sold doesn't mean people will be automatically throwing away their current DVD collection and looking to replace all their movies with high definition versions of them.

It's going to be years before this is settled one way or another, and anyone who proclaims to be able to forsee the winner now must have one hell of a crystal ball, or one hell of a brand-loyalty issue behind their belief.

I haven’t spoken to the CEOs but it’s pretty obvious that’s their position right now. Is there a compelling reason for them to suddenly open up the flood gates to profit minimisation?

You also say PS2 is an inferior format? Hardware yes but software? It's the software that sold PS2.

The situation is crystal clear for HD-DVD at the moment. They need something really major to happen to Blu-Ray.

Familiarity of Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? When a consumer goes to purchase the player they’ll see one format with al movies available on it (assuming Warner & Universal cave in) and the other with a limited catalogue at best. The consumer is unlikely to care about the capacities or name or other vagaries of either format at that point; they’ll pick the format with total support. Blu-Ray is the de facto standard for movie content at this moment in time.

As london-boy said the real issue at hand is the one these firms/Hollywood face in converting people to the HD era.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Bah, it's just a bunch of biased assumptions. Powderkeg is dead on, it all depends on MEDIA SALES, Disney Fox and the others will not be left out in the cold if millions of HD-DVD start being sold.

You have not spoken with the CEOs, and you are not psychic, so quit speaking as if you are.

#1. We don't know what price HD-DVD will launch at. Just an estimate from ONE manufacturer that may or may not be accurate.

#2. We don't know what the consumer reasction will be to HD-DVD when it launches in Feb, all you can do is GUESS

#3. We don't know the price of the PS3 or even the Launch Date

#4. We don't know the initial price of BR players, OR their launch date


There are still many possiblities, and many outcomes that could happen, don't count your chickens before they hatch....

Ok...officially signing off now...

 

[Powderkeg]

I haven’t spoken to the CEOs but it’s pretty obvious that’s their position right now. Is there a compelling reason for them to suddenly open up the flood gates to profit minimisation?

Not at the moment, but 2+ years from now, who can say?

You also say PS2 is an inferior format? Hardware yes but software? It's the software that sold PS2.

No, it's the familiarity that sold the PS2. It definitely wasn't the launch lineup that made it THE system to own in it's first year.

The situation is crystal clear for HD-DVD at the moment. They need something really major to happen to Blu-Ray.

Familiarity of Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? When a consumer goes to purchase the player they’ll see one format with al movies available on it (assuming Warner & Universal cave in) and the other with a limited catalogue at best. The consumer is unlikely to care about the capacities or name or other vagaries of either format at that point; they’ll pick the format with total support. Blu-Ray is the de facto standard for movie content at this moment in time.

Chances are, they won't know how the studios are disperssed. Most will buy the player, and look for the movies after.

As london-boy said the real issue at hand is the one these firms/Hollywood face in converting people to the HD era.

And that is the issue at hand. If people are willing to convert, but lean towards HD-DVD, which way do you think Hollywood will go? These studios will supply demand, regardless of the format. Only Sony Studios will take the gamble of Bluray or nothing.






I'm not saying HD-DVD will win by any stretch of the imagination, all I'm saying is that the war will be long, hard, and a clear winner cannot be guessed this early in the fight.

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

THANK GOD you don't work for any of those companies as CEO!!!! That is like.... worst than suicide. People will stage a revolution (excuse the pun) and go back to VHS!

LOL, never said it was a good idea!

Seriously, though I do honestly expect this in some form or another. Something realistic might be the collector's edition, with all the extra footage, director cuts, commentary, blah blah, and the limited edition box to be blu-ray only. That's not say you'd get the garbage version only for DVD. They'd probably keep doing what they do now. Release 4 different versions of each movie... plain DVD, directors cut DVD, uncut/censored DVD, and the extras DVD... throw in a special box with one of those choices. Blu-ray version would be the sum of those, essentially. That would be a much nicer way to go, but don't expect it.

Seriously, you think the movie studios give a rat's tail about the consumers? They wouldn't have multiple version of DVDs every few months if they did with all the trailer garbage and the DRM BS in some moronic ploy, which apparently is working, to get more and more of you're money by making you buy something 4 times instead of once. Really, you may be disgusted with what I said before, but I'd almost guarantee studios will do something similar.

 

[mckmas8808]

Bah, it's just a bunch of biased assumptions. Powderkeg is dead on, it all depends on MEDIA SALES, Disney Fox and the others will not be left out in the cold if millions of HD-DVD start being sold.

You have not spoken with the CEOs, and you are not psychic, so quit speaking as if you are.

#1. We don't know what price HD-DVD will launch at. Just an estimate from ONE manufacturer that may or may not be accurate.

#2. We don't know what the consumer reasction will be to HD-DVD when it launches in Feb, all you can do is GUESS

#3. We don't know the price of the PS3 or even the Launch Date

#4. We don't know the initial price of BR players, OR their launch date


There are still many possiblities, and many outcomes that could happen, don't count your chickens before they hatch....

Ok...officially signing off now...

You are right. All we are saying is that it's pretty much starting to be a wrap for HD-DVD. It's not stamped yet, but the beginning are starting to happen now. And we are getting this feeling not from our made up beliefs but from the billion dollar companies.

Where are all those advantages that HD-DVD had over Blu-ray? Those are seeming to shink by the month. Just take a look around you will see the end starting to come yourself if you just open your mind.

 

[scooby_dooby]

LOL, never said it was a good idea!

Seriously, though I do honestly expect this in some form or another. Something realistic might be the collector's edition, with all the extra footage, director cuts, commentary, blah blah, and the limited edition box to be blu-ray only. That's not say you'd get the garbage version only for DVD. They'd probably keep doing what they do now. Release 4 different versions of each movie... plain DVD, directors cut DVD, uncut/censored DVD, and the extras DVD... throw in a special box with one of those choices. Blu-ray version would be the sum of those, essentially. That would be a much nicer way to go, but don't expect it.

Seriously, you think the movie studios give a rat's tail about the consumers? They wouldn't have multiple version of DVDs every few months if they did with all the trailer garbage and the DRM BS in some moronic ploy, which apparently is working, to get more and more of you're money by making you buy something 4 times instead of once. Really, you may be disgusted with what I said before, but I'd almost guarantee studios will do something similar.

They don't have to anything that extreme. They do give a rats-tail about the consumer, because if they make it too complicated the consumer will just reject the format. We've already reached the "good enough" threshhold with DVD's, most poeple consider the picture quality excellent, so it has to be affordable, simple and easy to get mass adoption.

Anything overly complicated, or too expensive, will simply fail.

Right now there is a good market for HD-DVD movies, 15-20million strong in the US alone, all they need to do is start releasing hybrid HD-DVD's.

The point of HD-DVD IMO from the Studios perspective is to provide a spike in the flattening DVD sales, not to "force" people to adopt a completely new format which would never happen. It's more to revitalize DVD sales which are slowing down.

 

[avaya]

I’m putting forth the argument that it won’t be a long or bloody war and the Blu-Ray side are unlikely to switch. FOX and Disney have a record of being stubborn – see DivX vs. DVD.

HD-DVD’s first to the market, and will rely on the increasing returns on network externalities principle to play a major role so it may try and get a foothold.

The idea behind the principle in this context relates to the extra utility the consumer may gain from buying a HD-DVD player over a Blu-Ray player if their friends/family/colleagues/neighbours have a HD-DVD player – this relates to content sharing between buyers. You cannot predict this effect with sufficient statistical accuracy so when we invoke this principle as a prime factor we can only come to the conclusion: We don’t know for sure who will win.

However while I believe this principle will cause a stir in the market, if HD-DVD ever makes it to market, I believe Blu-Ray’s key advantages (which resemble those of VHS over Betamax) will not be overcome.

The BDA should have total Hollywood backing, has the larger coalition of CE backers, the larger coalition of drive manufacturers and has the support of the most important OEMs in the desktop market.

The BDA also has PS3, which by Paramount’s own reckoning is a key advantage.

It is premature to say Blu-Ray will win against HD-DVD but it’s no less premature than saying Brazil will beat Chad in a game of football. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Chad could beat Brazil but it’s unlikely.

 

[eDoshin]

When it all comes down to it, BR has the support of more studios, and BR players will instantly be in millions of homes right off the bat. HD-DVD will have to fight for each and every customer. And IMO, the name HD-DVD connotes DVD, only better. BluRay sounds more "different" and next generation. With prices for Plasma/LCD monitors dropping, and electronics stores looping HD content in their displays, people will be upgrading to the "new" technology, and ready to leave the grainy old stuff behind, even if BR is not necessarily any better than HD-DVD I would think that people are ready to leave familiarity behind and move onto more exciting stuff. I truly believe that phrase BluRay will become as iconic as BlueTooth and iPod .. or even Walkman. People will eventually look for "BluRay" as some kind of seal of authenticity for next gen content. ahh .. just my intuition.

 

[London Geezer]

It is premature to say Blu-Ray will win against HD-DVD but it’s no less premature than saying Brazil will beat Chad in a game of football. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Chad could beat Brazil but it’s unlikely.

Nonsense! Then let's do the "meteorite" scenario, the "earthquake" scenario.
It's only "premature" to say for the people who for some mysterious reason are hanging on the hope that HDDVD will "win".
It's obvious what's happening and in the end only time will tell. But it's clear from now that it's not "premature" at all.
Obviously no one will win this argument until the things are a couple of years into their life (if HDDVD even lasts 2 years), but it's clear what's going on now. Some people just choose to ignore it.

 

[eDoshin]

Let's just hope that BR wins and avoid a format war altogether. Its not like HD-DVD is included with 360, so it really has nothing to do with console wars. If someone is such an anti-Sonymite, and I recall a few here, then they do not have to support PS3, but just go and buy themselves a Panasonic standalone. At least with PS3, if BR loses, its not like I wasted money on a standalone that will never play another new movie. Can't say the same for HD-DVD standalones tho. Only repurcussion may be that I would have probably paid a little more for PS3 than necessary (if I was an early adopter).

 

[scooby_dooby]

Nonsense! Then let's do the "meteorite" scenario, the "earthquake" scenario.
It's only "premature" to say for the people who for some mysterious reason are hanging on the hope that HDDVD will "win".
It's obvious what's happening and in the end only time will tell. But it's clear from now that it's not "premature" at all.
Obviously no one will win this argument until the things are a couple of years into their life (if HDDVD even lasts 2 years), but it's clear what's going on now. Some people just choose to ignore it.

I don't agree at all. WHat if HD-DVD launches at an affordable price, and is greeted with mass adoption by the HDTV community? Then all this studio support, media storage capacity, etc etc goes out the window.

I don't see how anything can be already decided when not a single player has even hit the market.

You know, the consumer still has SOME say here...I don't support either format, just bugs me to see people jumping to concusions.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

I don't agree at all. WHat if HD-DVD launches at an affordable price, and is greeted with mass adoption by the HDTV community? Then all this studio support, media storage capacity, etc etc goes out the window.

I don't see how anything can be already decided when not a single player has even hit the market.

You know, the consumer still has SOME say here...I don't support either format, just bugs me to see people jumping to concusions.

This scenario becomes less likely as more studios defect to the BD side. What content/reason is there to get a HD-DVD player? You know the adoption rate will be low to begin with, and the price relatively high. These are known factors based on previous CE trends. What you propose is an unlikely proposition designed more to prop up a losing argument than to provide evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) of a realistic alternative. In the unlikely event that Satan walked the earth, all the religions go out the window. PEACE.

 

[London Geezer]

I don't agree at all. WHat if HD-DVD launches at an affordable price, and is greeted with mass adoption by the HDTV community? Then all this studio support, media storage capacity, etc etc goes out the window.

I don't see how anything can be already decided when not a single player has even hit the market.

You know, the consumer still has SOME say here...I don't support either format, just bugs me to see people jumping to concusions.

What if what if what if.
We know Toshiba will release HDDVD players at a certain price.
We know HDDVD has half the support of Bluray.
We know HDDVD has been pushed back.

HDDVD will be released, and a few months (maybe even weeks) later, the real format, the one with 100% of the movie industry behind it (like DVD, see the pattern here?), will be released

HDDVD players before Bluray is released will be bought by early adopters, who are never a lot. Compared to PS3 especially.

There are a lot more consumers of PS3 than there will be consumers of HDDVD players.

The real "war" is a much tougher one, and it's DVD vs Bluray. Well, unless Godzilla comes out of the pacific and destroys Sony. You know, what if it happens.

 

[eDoshin]

What if what if what if.

The real "war" is a much tougher one, and it's DVD vs Bluray. Well, unless Godzilla comes out of the pacific and destroys Sony. You know, what if it happens.

I can't agree about Godzilla. We don't know if he's alive or dead .. I've seen him get killed so many times only to rise again. We don't know if it's "good" Godzilla come to save Nintendo or "bad" Godzilla come to destroy Sony.

 

[avaya]

I can't agree about Godzilla. We don't know if he's alive or dead .. I've seen him get killed so many times only to rise again. We don't know if it's "good" Godzilla come to save Nintendo or "bad" Godzilla come to destroy Sony.

We also know that one of these little godzilla's escaped....

 

[Ty]

I don't agree at all. WHat if HD-DVD launches at an affordable price, and is greeted with mass adoption by the HDTV community? Then all this studio support, media storage capacity, etc etc goes out the window.

I don't see how anything can be already decided when not a single player has even hit the market.

You know, the consumer still has SOME say here...I don't support either format, just bugs me to see people jumping to concusions.

Well at this point I think the momentum is definitely in BR's favor. No, certainly nothing has been set in stone yet (and won't be until sometime after launch) but you have to admit BR is pulling ahead at least perceptually. Whether that's good or bad I leave it for another discussion. I actually don't care anymore as long as both have the same PQ.

 

[sonycowboy]

Bah, it's just a bunch of biased assumptions. Powderkeg is dead on, it all depends on MEDIA SALES, Disney Fox and the others will not be left out in the cold if millions of HD-DVD start being sold.

Millions of HD-DVD's being sold? Do you know what their initial cost will be? And what the adoption curve of high end consumer electronics looks like. Look at DVD adoption in 1997/1998. And DVD adoption was the fastest media adoption in history.

If you were to use this argument, you'd have to give a MONSTER advantage to Blu-Ray because of the PS3.

Also, if reports regarding Warner & Universal are correct, you have the possibility of having a player (Blu-Ray) that can play EVERY SINGLE MOVIE vs the other (HD-DVD) that will play less than half of studio movies. If you're talking about joe consumer, I would think that equates to a difficult disadvantage for HD-DVD.

 

[avaya]

Founding HD-DVD hardware maker NEC joins BDA

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/6896.cfm

Everyone's setting it up for one format.

 

[Powderkeg]

Nonsense! Then let's do the "meteorite" scenario, the "earthquake" scenario.
It's only "premature" to say for the people who for some mysterious reason are hanging on the hope that HDDVD will "win".
It's obvious what's happening and in the end only time will tell. But it's clear from now that it's not "premature" at all.
Obviously no one will win this argument until the things are a couple of years into their life (if HDDVD even lasts 2 years), but it's clear what's going on now. Some people just choose to ignore it.

Ahh yes, and 8-track won over the cassette tape too, right?

I mean, 8 track had the superior sound, had more data space, had better copy protection, and had the backing of all of the recording studios (Who shunned Cassettes because of their easy duplication).

So, 8-track won, right?

 

[Powderkeg]

Founding HD-DVD hardware maker NEC joins BDA

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/6896.cfm

Everyone's setting it up for one format.

Really?

NEC Electronics Corp., a semiconductor subsidiary of NEC Corp, supports the HD-DVD format but has also joined Blu-ray promotion group, the company officials said. Since both Sony and Toshiba are key NEC customers, the manufacturer has indicated its readiness to adopt both formats

You have a strange concept of single format alignment if that's what you think NEC did.