Will Warner support Blu-ray?

[Inane_Dork]

Why can't Sony sell 1 million PS3's in one month? It is possible if the supply is there.

If the supply is there it'd be inevitable. But the claim is "millions" and 1 million is about 1 million short. No way in heck will Sony have 2 million shipped in a month.

 

[mckmas8808]

If the supply is there it'd be inevitable. But the claim is "millions" and 1 million is about 1 million short. No way in heck will Sony have 2 million shipped in a month.

Yep you're right Sony will not have 2 million shipped in a month imo, so we agree.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

PS2 sold 1.4M in its first month in Japan, BTW. That was stockpiled too, b/c they only sold another 1M in the next 3 months. But it is very possible to get a large chunk of units to launch.

I'm also curious to see the source of that info on the 50GB discs. I actually expect a lot of movies to come on 50GB discs to pack in extra content. PEACE.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Great post scooby. You're right only a fraction of PS3 buyers will blu-ray movies. But we both know that number (PS3 buyers that buy blu-ray movies) will still surpass the total number of HD-DVD players numbers. Especially in the beginning.

Not really. If HD-DVD players are signifigantly cheaper than the BR players you could see HD-DVD take off. If they are priced similarly, than ya, I would agree.

I've always held the opinion that it's ging to be a pricewar, and the consumer will decide mainly on price, the studios will follow the consumer as they always have(see UMD).

 

[scooby_dooby]

This is where I'll disagree though (I know you were just using 20% as an example) because I bet that the early adopters have a much higher % of HDTVs in their homes, after all, they are early adopters likely not merely limited to video games.

That would be my hunch too, but really it so hard to quantify. 20% may be too low in USA, but is it in Japan? What's the installed base in Japan? What about Europe?

If we're talking US only, I would guess a signifigant number of early adopters would be HDTV enthusiasts, but it's nothing more than a guess, and might not be a realistic one.

If we're talking US then It should be noted that we're talking 6-7 months after standalone players should already be on the market, that's enough time for many of the HDTV owners to pick up a stabdalone, so it gets even muddier.

To further muddy the waters, how many HDTV owners will have already purchased an X360 by then? Will a signifigant number buy both consoles? How many may opt for a standalone at that point?

 

[mckmas8808]

Not really. If HD-DVD players are signifigantly cheaper than the BR players you could see HD-DVD take off. If they are priced similarly, than ya, I would agree.

I've always held the opinion that it's ging to be a pricewar, and the consumer will decide mainly on price, the studios will follow the consumer as they always have(see UMD).

Consumer sees $400 Blu-ray player (PS3) and then the consumer sees a $800 HD-DVD player. I can bet you that there will be more PS3 and standalone Blu-ray player buyers that have a HDTV than total HD-DVD buyers.

 

[version]

Fox sez Blu-ray Wins

Fox’s big fancy pants co-chairman has said he sees Blu-ray technology winning the race for the next-generation media format. Supposedly Blu-ray has the lead thanks to widespread Hollywood support, the release of the popular Sony PlayStation 3 consoles and just the sheer number of companies involved with Sony and Blu-ray. Chairman James Gianopulos (best last name ever), said Fox has no plans to release any movies in Toshiba’s HD-DVD format.

 

[drpepper]

Consumer sees $400 Blu-ray player (PS3) and then the consumer sees a $800 HD-DVD player. I can bet you that there will be more PS3 and standalone Blu-ray player buyers that have a HDTV than total HD-DVD buyers.

Correct, the HDDVD players will have to compete price-wise with the PS3 if they are to get any footing. And if it does come down to a price war then the PS3 should win. This of course assuming that the PS3 is priced no more than 400-500$.

Blu-Ray has the advantage of being bundled in a subsidized platform, HDDVD doesn't.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Consumer sees $400 Blu-ray player (PS3) and then the consumer sees a $800 HD-DVD player. I can bet you that there will be more PS3 and standalone Blu-ray player buyers that have a HDTV than total HD-DVD buyers.

Obviously if HD-DVD is going to compete it will need to lower it's price extremely quickly,

 

[Edge]

I can't believe anyone thinks HD-DVD has a chance in winning. I truly believe, that when Panasonic said they would support Blu-ray, that is was game over for HD-DVD.

Just go into any consumer electronics shop, and count how many DVD players are manufactured by the HD-DVD CE manufacturers versus the Blu-ray group. Here in Vancouver, it's 90 percent of the DVD players are manufactured by the Blu-ray group of companies. You think that ratio is going to change?

Just think of all that marketing by all those companies.

It's game over for HD-DVD. I can't see how 10 percent of the CE manufacturers can overcome the other 90 percent. It's not going to happen.

The fact the Blu-ray group got so much early CE manufacturing support, has lead to majority of Hollywood support. The majority of Hollywood companies are not stupid, they see the writing on the wall.

Blu-ray does not even need the PS3 for the win, but the PS3 will be a tidal wave of epic proportions to cement the win.

This is my last post in this thread, cause as far as I'm concerned, it's a none issue. Blu-ray will absolutely destroy HD-DVD. HD-DVD does not even have a remote chance of succeeding. Arguing with people who believe otherwise is a complete waste of time.

 

[Ty]

That would be my hunch too, but really it so hard to quantify. 20% may be too low in USA, but is it in Japan? What's the installed base in Japan? What about Europe?

No clue about Japan or Europe, but those won't matter much for BR in the US. In other words, let's assume that HDTV is 1% in Japan and Europe. It's not like HD-DVD would get an advantage than BR because of the low HDTV ownership - both formats would have difficultly there.

As for the US:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=606337

Twelve percent of American households had at least one high-definition television at the end of last year, but that is projected to double to more than a quarter of US homes by the end of 2006, according to Jupiter's latest report on the topic.

So by the end of next year it will be 25%. Not amazing by any stretch of the imagination. Then again, it's going up against TVs that have been in homes for years and years so perhaps 25% isn't so bad. And again, we'd expect early adopters to be part of a MUCH higher %.

If we're talking US then It should be noted that we're talking 6-7 months after standalone players should already be on the market, that's enough time for many of the HDTV owners to pick up a stabdalone, so it gets even muddier.

Sure but the launch costs of HD-DVD will apparently* be pretty high. So compare a $399 PS3/BR player vs. an $800-$1000 HD-DVD ONLY player and it's pretty easy to see which will attract more consumers. Then add in that BR has the advantage of content and the (perceptual?) technological edge and really, there is no reason to go HD-DVD.

* note that Toshiba is seeking Chinese manufacturers to bring down costs so HD-DVD players might be quite cheap, even from the beginning, but this is only supposition and is, afaik, actually contrary to what Toshiba have mentioned themselves.

To further muddy the waters, how many HDTV owners will have already purchased an X360 by then? Will a signifigant number buy both consoles? How many may opt for a standalone at that point?

Well here's an interesting take on the whole "second console" argument. Perhaps the BR function of the PS3 will make it a viable second console as its owners get access to PS3 games AND BR content.

 

[one]

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/12-05-2005/0004228046&EDATE=

Panasonic Starts Pilot Production of 50-GIGABYTE Blu-ray Discs in Torrance, California

TORRANCE, Calif., Dec. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Panasonic has modified
its existing pilot production line for single-layer Blu-ray Discs, called
BD-ROM, so that it is able to replicate dual-layer BD-ROM discs with 50
gigabytes (GB) of storage capacity. The new pilot replication line is housed
within the Panasonic Disc Manufacturing Corporation of America, which is
located here in Torrance, Calif. Single-layer Blu-ray Discs have 25 GB of
storage capacity for holding video and other data, while current DVD discs
have 8.5 GB of storage at most.
The doubling of BD-ROM disc storage capacity is enabled by spin coating
technologies developed by Panasonic that create two recorded layers on a
single side of a Blu-ray Disc. In the process, readily available inexpensive
UV curable resins are used in the creation of the space layer, cover layer and
hard-coat, resulting in a reduction in disc replication costs. Video and other
data is then embedded in the layers for playback later using a blue
laser-equipped Blu-ray Disc player, recorder or BD-ROM drive-equipped PC.
The Torrance pilot production line is able to produce dual-layer BD-ROM
discs with the attachment of a dual-layer replication line module to the
existing single-layer line. Single-layer BD-ROM discs are currently being
produced on the pilot line with more than 80% yield rates. Panasonic expects
to provide sample dual-layer BD-ROM discs to the industry for testing by the
end of this month.
"Working closely with the movie studios and our replication partners,
Panasonic was able to foresee the need for greater disc capacity to give
consumers a much richer user experience," said Eisuke Tsuyuzaki, director of
Strategy & Alliances, Panasonic Hollywood Lab.
Panasonic expects to highlight the new replication process for dual-layer
BD-ROM discs at the Blu-ray Disc Association's booth (#9444, Main Hall, Las
Vegas Convention Center) during the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas,
January 5-8, 2006.
The additional capacity will allow movies and other High Definition video
titles to be stored, along with value-added features, on a single Blu-ray
Disc. The BD-ROM format is expected to succeed DVDs as the preferred medium
for High Definition movies and other packaged entertainment content for the
home as the nation moves from analog TV to digital and High Definition
Television.

 

[-tkf-]

Maybe 1million consoles sold, lets say a generous 20% of them have HDTV.

Don't forget that many of the first adapters may end up buying the PS3 just because of the Blu-Ray, just as many bought the PS2 because it was a DVD player with a free console.

 

[jvd]

Don't forget that many of the first adapters may end up buying the PS3 just because of the Blu-Ray, just as many bought the PS2 because it was a DVD player with a free console.

many wont be able to take advantage of bluray though. Dvd player anyone with a tv could get better than vhs quality right away.


Bluray to get better than dvd quality your relaly going to need a hd-tv

 

[AlphaWolf]

Don't forget that many of the first adapters may end up buying the PS3 just because of the Blu-Ray, just as many bought the PS2 because it was a DVD player with a free console.

The time lines were quite a bit different for the ps2 so it will be interesting to see. PS2 came to the market about the same time home dvd players were entering the mainstream and there was already tons of titles on the market. This time around ps3 will be leading the charge and I doubt there will be hundreds of titles for it at release.

 

[-tkf-]

This time around ps3 will be leading the charge and I doubt there will be hundreds of titles for it at release.

My point was that for many HDTV owners PS3 will be the first real HD alternative to broadcast.

 

[mckmas8808]

It's funny that nobody wants to talk about one's post. Did you guys just miss the production of 50 GB disc from Panasonic?

 

[drpepper]

It's funny that nobody wants to talk about one's post. Did you guys just miss the production of 50 GB disc from Panasonic?

It is interesting, Blu-Ray starting at 50 GB.

What's that? Oh that's the sound of a nail being hammered into a coffin.

 

[mckmas8808]

It is interesting, Blu-Ray starting at 50 GB.

What's that? Oh that's the sound of a nail being hammered into a coffin.

With big hammers too. Next we will hear about games that are going to be made on 50 GB disc. Of course all of it won't be just the game, but hopefully some 30 minute HD footage on "Making The Game: Heavenly Sword"

 

[drpepper]

Well, I'd assume that initially content would be on 25 GB discs just to keep costs down. Unless the game happen to have lots of HD videos in terms of "making of..." videos as you mentioned.