When did vgchartz start releasing weekly tracking console sales for the Americas

[Cheezdoodles]

You do realize NPD numbers are also just estimates too right?

NPD numbers are estimates that are statistically correct, they track a lot more consoles than needed in order to get results that are extremely likely to be correct.

Only a fanboy would try to make an argument about NPD being incorrect, NPD is the best source for sales data in the USA. Anybody who knows a bit about statistics and know what they track agree to this.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Let me remind you that NPD figures only account for around 60% of retail stores in the US. And that I dont own a next-gen console.

Therefore, some extrapolation is neccessary if you are going to predict sales. Though perhaps you would prefer it if we should use your estimates...?

Let me remind you that you can get 95% statistically correct info (95% likely for it to be true) with only tracking a couple thousand of consoles out of 1 million.

60% of the market is more than enough to get very very very very statistically correct information.

And its certainly more accurate than VGcharts.

 

[Vic]

Ostepop, read my post. I'm not claiming that NPD numbers are not accurate, merely that its reasonable to extapolate those figures, because they dont track the sales of Amazon et al. VG Charts is partly based on NPD figures, so it wouldnt even make sense for me to dismiss them. I'm just pointing out to Patrick, their limitations (as I have also done with VG Charts). That doesnt stop me from believing that VG Charts is a good indicator of worldwide sales however.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Ostepop, read my post. I'm not claiming that NPD numbers are not accurate, merely that its reasonable to extrapolate those figures, because they dont track the sales of Amazon et al.

No. That doesn't make any sense if you know statistics. NPD numbers are estimates as well, they track X amount of the consoles, and then make estimations based on this for the entire market.

The amount of consoles they track, AND the fact that the people working at NPD are people with doctorates in statistics, would give you no reason to start messing with their numbers.

Not unless you are a statistics genius and believe you can do a better job, and can see the source data, which you cannot.

Unless you can see the source data, starting to **** around with the NPD numbers, is an instant failure.

VG Charts is partly based on NPD figures, so it wouldnt even make sense for me to dismiss them.

Thats irrelevant, if its not based entirely on NPD figures, its most likely to be wrong.

That doesnt stop me from believing that VG Charts is a good indicator of worldwide sales however.

Really? I have serious doubts about that. Especially their European calculations, there aren't any mayor console trackers in the EU, their numbers are most likely guesstimates.

(Also, if you studied how they calculated the European PS3 launch data, its obvious they are largely using guesstimates)

 

[Rangers]

No. That doesn't make any sense if you know statistics. NPD numbers are estimates as well, they track X amount of the consoles, and then make estimations based on this for the entire market.

The amount of consoles they track, AND the fact that the people working at NPD are people with doctorates in statistics, would give you no reason to start messing with their numbers.

Not unless you are a statistics genius and believe you can do a better job, and can see the source data, which you cannot.

Unless you can see the source data, starting to **** around with the NPD numbers, is an instant failure.




Thats irrelevant, if its not based entirely on NPD figures, its most likely to be wrong.




Really? I have serious doubts about that. Especially their European calculations, there aren't any mayor console trackers in the EU, their numbers are most likely guesstimates.

(Also, if you studied how they calculated the European PS3 launch data, its obvious they are largely using guesstimates)

VGA charts numbers ARE estimates..but the question is if they are fairly conservative good faith estimates. In that case, they are.

NPD only covers America for example. So to get a North American number you must also include Canada (mexico sales are basically nil). Some months we get Canada NPD's, if you can figure out a trend that usually Canada's number are ~7% of Americas for example, then you can use that to guess when we dont get Canada numbers. That's basically all Vgcharts does across all territories. Is it 100% accurate? No. Is it a decent guess? Yes. You can when you know the numbers even make larger guesses. I've heard UK sales are generally 1/3 of EU sales. So if you get UK numbers...you can extrapolate if you know that. Will it be 100% accurate? Of course not, it's kind of a rule of thumb. But if you spent a lot f time analyzing this stuff, you'd make a lot better guesses than Joe Schmo, and that's what VGCharts does. Not only that but he surely has better sources than us. He surely has a detailed NPD source/leak, more than just say top 10 software like we get, he surely gets the entire spreadsheet. There are a few commoners at GAF who get this kind of info, why wouldn't he? Media Create sales for Japan are publically available and very accurate, so there's that. He may even have a source for GSK I think it's called, the entity that tracks Europe. If not, there are periodic news stories that detail sales in a specific Euro country (or any country, such as Australia) that a lot can be worked out from, and future estimates made from. Public quarterly shipment figures/boastful press release/etc etc etc from Sony/Nintendo/MS, broken down by region, are another weapon that a lot of extrapolating and cross-checking can be done from. And finally, it's just a matter of paying a lot of attention. I follow sales more closely than most, I'm sure he follows them much more closely than me.

 

[djskribbles]

Now that you know NPD numbers come tell me again they are reliable so I can laugh at you

fwiw, NPD sometimes releases Canadian numbers as well, but that 130k of March was the US only and those VGChartz numbers are N/A numbers.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

NPD only covers America for example. So to get a North American number you must also include Canada (mexico sales are basically nil). Some months we get Canada NPD's, if you can figure out a trend that usually Canada's number are ~7% of Americas for example, then you can use that to guess when we dont get Canada numbers. That's basically all Vgcharts does across all territories. Is it 100% accurate? No. Is it a decent guess? Yes.

It is however, completely worthless statistically. Thats my point. Nobody should come in here, and make any comment about NPD data, and praise vgcharts. Statistically, NPD numbers are far more correct than vgcharts.

You can when you know the numbers even make larger guesses. I've heard UK sales are generally 1/3 of EU sales. So if you get UK numbers...you can extrapolate if you know that. Will it be 100% accurate? Of course not, it's kind of a rule of thumb. But if you spent a lot f time analyzing this stuff, you'd make a lot better guesses than Joe Schmo, and that's what VGCharts does.

These kinds of guesstimates would be even worse statistically speaking.

Not only that but he surely has better sources than us. He surely has a detailed NPD source/leak, more than just say top 10 software like we get, he surely gets the entire spreadsheet. There are a few commoners at GAF who get this kind of info, why wouldn't he?

He gets the source data? I can promise you he doesnt have any such leak. Ever noticed that Vgcharts goes down for "maintance" or changes their numbers every day the NPD numbers come out? If he had the source data, this info would be avaliable to him far earlier.

He may even have a source for GSK I think it's called, the entity that tracks Europe.

There is nobody that tracks console sales for Europe as a whole.


The point i was making here, is that NPD data is A LOT more trustworthy than Vgcharts. Statistically, its no contest.

Im not arguing if vgcharts is the best worldwide data avaliable or not, (it probably is), but a lot of the data seems purely based on guesstimates and not real sources. Further, anybody who tries to argue that NPD is worse source than vgcharts of USA numbers, is out of their mind, or they dont have a clue about what they are talking about.

I know exactly what i'm talking about when it comes to statistics.

 

[Rangers]

It is however, completely worthless statistically. Thats my point. Nobody should come in here, and make any comment about NPD data, and praise vgcharts. Statistically, NPD numbers are far more correct than vgcharts.

And Vgcharts is BASING his numbers off NPD. He's just screwing with them a little bit so they aren't the exact same so NPD cant sue him. Statistically yeah, NPD numbers probably are more correct. So what, neither one is 100% accurate.

These kinds of guesstimates would be even worse statistically speaking.

I dont really understand what you mean here. Sure, they're not 100% accurate, we already covered that. They're better than no info at all. Unless you want to do all the legwork for a few months so you can make accurate guesstimates at EU sales? If not, I'll look at vgcharts.

He gets the source data? I can promise you he doesnt have any such leak. Ever noticed that Vgcharts goes down for "maintance" or changes their numbers every day the NPD numbers come out? If he had the source data, this info would be avaliable to him far earlier.

Right, we already covered that he is guesstimating for weekly sales, then he corrects them when NPD comes in. He doesn't hide that fact. As far as source data, nobody gets it early. Even "insiders" get it on the same day it's posted at GAF. By source I mean, where the public maybe gets top 10 software, some people get ALL software sales, down to games that sell 5 copies. I'm sure he has such a source, since some people at freaking GAF do.

There is nobody that tracks console sales for Europe as a whole.

I think GSK is the entity that tracks by country in Europe, then. Maybe Chart Track in the UK. I really dont know, the point is he's a lot more likely to have such a source than you or me. Even if he DOESNT, still careful following of sales articles can tell you a lot about Europe sales. Every once in a while we get a reputable published newspaper report "hey, Xbox360 has sold xxx in Germany so far this year". You or I dont keep track of that shit. But I gaurentee we would if practically our job (or at least hobby ) was vgchartz.

The point i was making here, is that NPD data is A LOT more trustworthy than Vgcharts. Statistically, its no contest.

Sure, I guess.

Im not arguing if vgcharts is the best worldwide data avaliable or not, (it probably is), but a lot of the data seems purely based on guesstimates and not real sources. Further, anybody who tries to argue that NPD is worse source than vgcharts of USA numbers, is out of their mind, or they dont have a clue about what they are talking about.

Yes I totally agree NPD is more accurate than Vgcharts.

Although, food for thought, the Vgcharts guy seems to think NPD consistently undercounts, as his Americas sales are always like 10% high. And you know, he might be right for all we know. I remember him explaining that he got that from the fact ship numbers were X% higher than NPD numbers, even over years time. And also when Sony cleared out the old PS2 to make room for the slimline, theoreticaly shipments=sales at that point, and they were higher than NPD life-to-date of PS2. So he upconverts a bit. Like I say, mostly bullshit but who cares.

 

[zed]

ild noticed that the xb360 numbers went down recently (like it was oops we overestimated)
but like rangers said until there is a better source vgcharts is the closest there is to a good estimate of how well consoles are selling ( which btw i assume is based on NPD + the japanese + great parts of europe + here in nz + oz sales figures, which are tracked like NPD i )
if u can come up with a better source of info, speak up until then shut up
another source is the companies themselves but of courcse there figures only tell u one thing
A/ the true figure is not more than this (unless theyre performing phenomenal which even the wii aint doing)

 

[oli2]

ild noticed that the xb360 numbers went down recently (like it was oops we overestimated)

The same for Wii. (i did not pay attention to PS3's numbers, so i don't know)

 

[Cheezdoodles]

By source I mean, where the public maybe gets top 10 software, some people get ALL software sales, down to games that sell 5 copies. I'm sure he has such a source, since some people at freaking GAF do.

By source data, i mean X amount of sales from every retailer NPD tracks from. All the data, if you have that, you can start doing your own estimates based on NPD numbers.

 

[Sis]

if u can come up with a better source of info, speak up until then shut up

That's ridiculous. Using flawed data "because it's all we have" does not turn the data from flawed to correct. The site recently had to drastically revamp it's numbers to line up with NPD, according to sonycowboy over on GAF. We know they aren't accurate, and when they are it's purely because of NPD information.