The point of this thread is to take a look at Microsoft's strategy for exclusive software on their next console.
My general impression is (a) MS, which already lags behind Nintendo and Sony in terms of internal teams, has had a trend of closing studios and (b) with the WiiU shipping first and Sony appearing to posture to, at the minimum, co-launch side-by-side the Xbox 3, MS won't be getting "free" exclusives like the 360 had.
(a) MS's studios. Over the years Microsoft has closed (or spun off) a lot of studios. Carbonated Games, Ensemble Studios, Bungie, Aces Studio, Digital Anvil, etc. Microsoft still has a number of internal development teams (343 Industries, Lionhead Studios, Rare, Turn 10, Twisted Pixel Games, BigPark, etc) and a handful of newer studios without any track record but the big picture is that some of their bigger studios are no longer present.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Game_Studios#Software_development_studios
Looking closely at the studios that can produce compelling exclusives you only have a couple that stand out. Turn10's Forza series continues to expand and can be counted on to push the envelop. 343 studios has a tough job of following Bungie but it is fairly safe to assume they will produce quality titles although they run the risk of Halo franchise errosion. Lionhead has struggled and Rare, outside of Kinect Sports, has not had a significant impact this generation (although Banjo, Kameo, and VP were quality titles). Twisted Pixel can probably be counted on for some good XBLA content.
When you peak over the fence at what other console makers are having studios produce in terms of volume and quality it does raise an eyebrow. That doesn't necessarily justify the expense of some 1st party studios, or that trading say Halo for Infamous and LBP would be a good sales move, only to note MS appears to have a much smaller ability to generate new franchises.
(b) Free exclusives. I believe this opportunity is past. Last gen with MS launching in 2005 a studio could look at the 360 and justify targeting it because it was out a year early and, even if a 2006 or early 2007 title, the 360 had a huge install base lead and was easier to get games up and running. It made sense to go exclusive, especially if MS was willing to offer some financing.
That doesn't appear to be true any longer. Most expect Sony to release the PS4 around the time, or even before, the Xbox 3. Sony also appears to be moving toward a less eccentric hardware design, possibly creating a situation where developers could literally have one team make both versions with very few extra people.
The question also arises who would MS partner with?
Bioware was acquired by EA and has moved onto multiplatform development with the Mass Effect series. At $800M I doubt MS could pony up the cash to EA to convince them to do an exclusive as EA needs to get a return on their Bioware investment.
Bizzare Creations, makers of the PGR series, was closed down after poor PGR4 sales.
Silicone Knights never recovered from the Too Human debacle.
Bethesda seems to have fit into the, "We don't have the time for a PS3 version right now" with Oblivion (which later was ported to the PS3) and has gone on to amazing success with Fall Out and Skyrim.
Epic and MS found a good thing in Gears of War. Epic may be willing to continue a relationship where MS essentially pushes a franchise as a 1st party title (major press show and magazine attention) for the exposure ot offers but with Unreal Engines being multiplatform you know Epic will also be keen to make sure their software runs well on all platforms.
Thoughts: Maybe MS is looking at the cost of internal studios and seeing the hit and miss nature of both their own and Sony's studios and banking on it being cheaper--or if not cheaper a safer bet--to snag exclusive windows on up and coming games that catch their eye and chalk up the expense as a safer investment than a lot of internal studios that may, or may not, produce a quality title. The number of studios doesn't indicate MS is shutting down Xbox development (remember that rumor a couple years back?) but it does indicate they must be taking a different approach to generating exclusive content.
How big of a problem do others see this as?
What solutions are viable to MS?
My general impression is (a) MS, which already lags behind Nintendo and Sony in terms of internal teams, has had a trend of closing studios and (b) with the WiiU shipping first and Sony appearing to posture to, at the minimum, co-launch side-by-side the Xbox 3, MS won't be getting "free" exclusives like the 360 had.
(a) MS's studios. Over the years Microsoft has closed (or spun off) a lot of studios. Carbonated Games, Ensemble Studios, Bungie, Aces Studio, Digital Anvil, etc. Microsoft still has a number of internal development teams (343 Industries, Lionhead Studios, Rare, Turn 10, Twisted Pixel Games, BigPark, etc) and a handful of newer studios without any track record but the big picture is that some of their bigger studios are no longer present.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Game_Studios#Software_development_studios
Looking closely at the studios that can produce compelling exclusives you only have a couple that stand out. Turn10's Forza series continues to expand and can be counted on to push the envelop. 343 studios has a tough job of following Bungie but it is fairly safe to assume they will produce quality titles although they run the risk of Halo franchise errosion. Lionhead has struggled and Rare, outside of Kinect Sports, has not had a significant impact this generation (although Banjo, Kameo, and VP were quality titles). Twisted Pixel can probably be counted on for some good XBLA content.
When you peak over the fence at what other console makers are having studios produce in terms of volume and quality it does raise an eyebrow. That doesn't necessarily justify the expense of some 1st party studios, or that trading say Halo for Infamous and LBP would be a good sales move, only to note MS appears to have a much smaller ability to generate new franchises.
(b) Free exclusives. I believe this opportunity is past. Last gen with MS launching in 2005 a studio could look at the 360 and justify targeting it because it was out a year early and, even if a 2006 or early 2007 title, the 360 had a huge install base lead and was easier to get games up and running. It made sense to go exclusive, especially if MS was willing to offer some financing.
That doesn't appear to be true any longer. Most expect Sony to release the PS4 around the time, or even before, the Xbox 3. Sony also appears to be moving toward a less eccentric hardware design, possibly creating a situation where developers could literally have one team make both versions with very few extra people.
The question also arises who would MS partner with?
Bioware was acquired by EA and has moved onto multiplatform development with the Mass Effect series. At $800M I doubt MS could pony up the cash to EA to convince them to do an exclusive as EA needs to get a return on their Bioware investment.
Bizzare Creations, makers of the PGR series, was closed down after poor PGR4 sales.
Silicone Knights never recovered from the Too Human debacle.
Bethesda seems to have fit into the, "We don't have the time for a PS3 version right now" with Oblivion (which later was ported to the PS3) and has gone on to amazing success with Fall Out and Skyrim.
Epic and MS found a good thing in Gears of War. Epic may be willing to continue a relationship where MS essentially pushes a franchise as a 1st party title (major press show and magazine attention) for the exposure ot offers but with Unreal Engines being multiplatform you know Epic will also be keen to make sure their software runs well on all platforms.
Thoughts: Maybe MS is looking at the cost of internal studios and seeing the hit and miss nature of both their own and Sony's studios and banking on it being cheaper--or if not cheaper a safer bet--to snag exclusive windows on up and coming games that catch their eye and chalk up the expense as a safer investment than a lot of internal studios that may, or may not, produce a quality title. The number of studios doesn't indicate MS is shutting down Xbox development (remember that rumor a couple years back?) but it does indicate they must be taking a different approach to generating exclusive content.
How big of a problem do others see this as?
What solutions are viable to MS?