Warner Exclusive Blu-ray= More PS3 sold?

[Arwin]

This is a pretty nice site by the way for seeing the smaller or bigger differences between SD and HD movie transfers.

http://www.dvd-heaven.de/

 

[AlphaWolf]

This is a pretty nice site by the way for seeing the smaller or bigger differences between SD and HD movie transfers.

http://www.dvd-heaven.de/

heh the aspect is off in the DVD predator ones, I didn't bother to look at the others.

 

[Mintmaster]

The movie attach ratio is irrelevant to the movie studios since they are not paying for the console subsidies, so all the movie studios care about is sales period.

Exactly, which is why Sony didn't have to subsidized of PS3's to win the war. Subsidizing a quarter as many standalones would have worked just as well.

What you are saying about the huge increase in HD-DVD userbase is simply not true. What changed Warner's mind was that in the third quarter Bluray standalone players sales (ie. excluding the PS3) outsold HD-DVD players, despite the fact that they cost $100-$200 more than Toshiba's heavily subsidised HD-DVD players.

First of all, HD-DVD did have a huge increase in userbase, regardless of what BR did.

Secondly, you're again just proving my point. BR standalones did so well even with a large price premium. Sony didn't need all those PS3s to make BR succeed, and could have won with a quarter as many standalones.

 

[AzBat]

Tommy McClain is a nudist

ROFL, I about squirted milk out my nose when I read that. If running around the house without a shirt is being a nudist, then I guess you got me.

Seriously though, the $2-$3 convenience fee needs to be added to your internet bill too. I believe most/all internet plans in the states are "unlimited downloads", so possibly it not that big a deal for most of you as it would be to others around the world where it's not so nice. I'm paying $AUD80 per month for $40gb, so a, say, 4gb movie would cost, an additional $8 on top of the movie price. Downloading HD films over here just isn't cost-effective when it's effectively cheaper to buy the movie, watch it as many times as you like, and resell it for a lower cost.

This is a big part of the reason I see the DD vs HD Media war being trounced by BR (or combo drives). The global infrastructure doesn't seem to support DD, even though it's a fantastic option if you lived in the States.

I see what your saying with unlimited downloads here in the States. However, just because DD might not make the discs obsolete worldwide, I could see it happening in the States and sooner than most think. Plus, usually the States spearhead adoption for the rest of the world. It might get so popular here, that the rest of the world will have no choice but to catch up. It might not happen for a couple of years, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened in 5 years.

Tommy McClain

 

[StefanS]

This thread is getting less and less console related and is already straying far off-topic. Unless this is actually having some relevance to consoles, again, I am either going to lock it or move it to the appropriate forum parts. Just a friendly heads up beforehand. (If you want some posts to be exported, you can pm me.)

 

[Mintmaster]

Good point, Shifty. To tie this line of discussion back to the topic:

Sony has, for all intents and purposes, won the format war with Warner's switch. However, this does not mean that their decision to include BR in PS3 is a win or that Warner's move will help PS3's profitability.

For that to be true, Sony not only has to sell more PS3s, but those new buyers who were pushed over the fency by BR's victory need to buy games as well. Sony will never make up the subsidy for a PS3 with the movies bought on it.

Now that the war is over, PS3s bought solely for movies are actually bad for Sony's bottom line.

 

[Arwin]

Good point, Shifty. To tie this line of discussion back to the topic:

Sony has, for all intents and purposes, won the format war with Warner's switch. However, this does not mean that their decision to include BR in PS3 is a win or that Warner's move will help PS3's profitability.

For that to be true, Sony not only has to sell more PS3s, but those new buyers who were pushed over the fency by BR's victory need to buy games as well. Sony will never make up the subsidy for a PS3 with the movies bought on it.

The question is therefore also whether or not there will be gamers that also want a BluRay player. That group will get progressively larger as BR player prices come down. I already know of someone who bought a BR player for 299 even though he'd want a PS3 eventually. Stubborn old fool.

Now that the war is over, PS3s bought solely for movies are actually bad for Sony's bottom line.

Only if they are used exclusively for movies for all of its lifespan, and only if not enough of those movies are Sony's ip. Heck, it may even assist a HDtv sale that might be a Sony.

In the meantime, the lasers will be more mass-produced making PS3 component progressively cheaper. So there too, is a win. Also, BluRay disc manufacturing will come down. The whole ecosystem for BR will grow, including burners, empty discs and so on, potentially benefitting the PS3 because it happens to be able to play your family home-movie backups to Bluray disc.

Or whatever. Point is, it's less black and white than you make it out.

It doesn't invalidate your point, but I just wanted to point out that there are more conditions that may lead to profitability here than you state.

 

[Mintmaster]

I already know of someone who bought a BR player for 299 even though he'd want a PS3 eventually. Stubborn old fool.

WTF? He won't pay $120 for a PS3 + remote?

Only if they are used exclusively for movies for all of its lifespan,

Which is why I said "solely".

and only if not enough of those movies are Sony's ip.

Even if they're Sony IP, chances are that the PS3's presence in the home isn't providing that particular revenue, because without it the household would likely buy the DVD anyway. You have to look at the difference that the PS3 provides.

In the meantime, the lasers will be more mass-produced making PS3 component progressively cheaper. So there too, is a win. Also, BluRay disc manufacturing will come down. The whole ecosystem for BR will grow, including burners, empty discs and so on, potentially benefitting the PS3 because it happens to be able to play your family home-movie backups to Bluray disc.

These are all small potatoes, though, when evaluating the marginal impact. Regardless of your points about cost reduction, for next year Sony would rather sell their 9M PS3s all to game buyers than 10M PS3s with 10% to movie buyers. Those extra 1M PS3's in this example are not going to make much difference in cost reduction.

More importantly, remember the context of my statements: Without BR in PS3, Sony could have still have won the format war. It doesn't matter how good cost reduction is - you're not going to produce 8M diodes (PS3 sales to date) cheaper than 2M diodes (standalones that would result in even greater BRD sales).

It doesn't invalidate your point, but I just wanted to point out that there are more conditions that may lead to profitability here than you state.

Not really. Yeah, those factors exist, but you're drastically overemphasizing their importance.

 

[wco81]

You would think Sony would want people to buy PS3 not only for Blu-Ray movies but for games.

Yet one of their commercials tout only the Blu-Ray movie playback feature, IIRC.

They should preload the hard drive with some game demos or maybe bundle a disc of game demos, so that for people who did primarily get it for Blu-Ray movies will at least see what kind of gaming is available.

 

[patsu]

You would think Sony would want people to buy PS3 not only for Blu-Ray movies but for games.

Yet one of their commercials tout only the Blu-Ray movie playback feature, IIRC.

They should preload the hard drive with some game demos or maybe bundle a disc of game demos, so that for people who did primarily get it for Blu-Ray movies will at least see what kind of gaming is available.

This thread is getting less and less console related and is already straying far off-topic. Unless this is actually having some relevance to consoles, again, I am either going to lock it or move it to the appropriate forum parts. Just a friendly heads up beforehand. (If you want some posts to be exported, you can pm me.)

Whelp, I'm going to try hijacking this thread to make it more relevant to gaming. We already have tons of threads talking about HD movies (Blu-ray vs HD DVD vs DVD vs digital download).

How feasible is it to create games using Java ? In CES 2008, they demoed an "Aliens vs Predators" Java game on BD-Live players (http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=830)

Fox was displaying a BD-Live game for the film 'Alien vs Predator' called, "Alien vs Predator vs You". Using a webcam, PC, and Blu-ray BD-Live player, the user captures a picture of their face. This image in then morphed into either an alien, predator, or marine, depending on which character the viewer chooses. Next, the viewer must select which weapons and abilities they want before they enter the game.

After connecting with the server, two players enter into a scene from the actual movie. A pop-up screen shows the face, name, score, and health, along with weapon choices, and even data regarding their opponent. Following the guide, the players must use their weapons and abilities correctly in order to score points and stay alive. When the scene ends, the player with the most points wins.

We also heard that Playstation Home is capable of running Java games/programs (e.g., the arcade machines in the lobby, and you can buy one for your PS Home too).

I can foresee these games extending to Blu-ray pr0n industry, or even Java applications/persistent objects that migrate from BD-Live players to cellphones. In this sense, the boundary between Blu-ray movie and games/applications will blur further. PS3 is "simply" a lead/reference Blu-ray platform player with more players to come from other vendors.

 

["Nerve-Damage"]

Blu-ray Takes Lead in January Hardware Sales

Someone que the fat lady.

According to data from NPD, Warner Brothers' pre-CES announcement that it would back Blu-ray exclusively seems to have bolstered Blu-ray Disc player sales, and dramatically lowered HD DVD player sales. The data (disclosed by The Digital Bits), notes that in the week ending 1/5/08, Blu-ray Disc player sales were at 15,257 units, and HD DVD player sales were at 14,558 units.

Fast forward to after the Warner announcement. The week ending January 12 showed Blu-ray Disc had increased its lead by 42 percent, to 21,770 units sold. HD DVD sales plummeted by 88 percent, to just 1,758 units. This data would seem to support the fact that Warner's announcement was indeed the tipping point that would ultimately determine the winner of the format war

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Blu-ray. Isn't it simple?

Again, about 10-20% of the PS3 user base might care about Bluray at most...

 

[patsu]

Not necessarily. That number was used to quantify people who use PS3 for Blu-ray movie playback exclusively. There are more people doing both gaming and movie watching on PS3 according to Sony's own studies (e.g., as high as 87%).

That 87% number is probably not representative because people would want to pop in the free movies for trying out. It'd be interesting to see revised numbers (by third party) later this year.

 

[Crossbar]

Again, about 10-20% of the PS3 user base might care about Bluray at most...

Caring in what way I might ask?

There definitely seem to be some positive buzz surrounding blu-ray and HD-video in general. Just some anecdotal evidence:
My sister, one of the most non-technical persons walking on planet Earth, mentioned "blu-ray" when she was urging her husband to buy a new TV, I almost fell off my chair.
Yesterday my wife came home from a home electronics shop and described in exuberant terms this amazing HD-TV screen showing a spiderman movie. She could walk up really close to the screen and it still had this "almost 3d feeling". Yeah right, I thought quietly.

Anyway people are starting to be aware of blu-ray and notice a difference. People with a HD-TV screen will probably see blu-ray as a nice bonus. Since the format war seems to settle in favour of blu-ray, blu-ray will probably be a much stronger selling point next holiday season than the previous one.

Edit: In conjunction with higher HD-TV penetration and a larger library of hopefully cheaper blu-ray movies I might add.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Again, how many BR discs have been sold in the US up to this day? As I've heard they've just reached 20K per week now that HDDVD is out of the game; so are they at a million yet?
I don't care for anecdotal evidence and Sony research, I prefer numbers.

 

[djskribbles]

ouch.... that is quite a dramatic drop.

 

[Crossbar]

Again, how many BR discs have been sold in the US up to this day? As I've heard they've just reached 20K per week now that HDDVD is out of the game; so are they at a million yet?
I don't care for anecdotal evidence and Sony research, I prefer numbers.

Are you talking number of blu-ray discs or blu-ray players?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

BR discs, you know, the thing you kinda need to watch a movie...

 

[Laa-Yosh]

So at the current high sales, it's 80.000 per month, 960K per year? Less then 1 million movies sold in the US in the past year?

 

[djskribbles]

edit: nm