You can have all the super talented devs in the world, sometimes all it tackes is one person from a different company who has an entirely different perspective about the matter than your team.
I shall know, as i claim to be such person. Once i'm ready to proof my point, i'll get in touch with the industry.
From my perspective i can assure you there is no secret or even innovation in A4s approach. Looking at it from a general view. Ofc. they'll have theri tricks and optimiazations they do not share in their GDC talks, but in general their approach is clear and nothing new - it's just a combination of well known techniques.
It's just that from an ENDUSER perspective, I see the RTGI in Metro EE running so fast for a similar level of quality and I just wonder why Lumen can't have this performance.
I totally iunderstand how you get to this point. Personally i like A4s approach of raytracing the most. It's the best compromise you could do right now using state of the art technology. They use something liek RTXGI, which sucks, and is a terrible approximation, beside being mindless brute force. But to compensate for this shortcoming, they use 'path tracing' for the frist bounce, so the inaccuracy tones down to 'just' the secodnary bounces. (Thus, they do not really use path tracing, becasue ther are no paths. the dynamic volume probes replace the paths with a simple lookup to deliver an aproximated solution for the bounces.)
It's not perfect, but actually nobody (excpt me, as i claim) knows better. So i like that. (And i have proposed this approach long before A4 used it her on this forumj - it's an obvious and trivial idea.)
However, the approach suffers from a need to place probe volume grids manually. Besides manual work, it also does not scale. If you have big worlds, likely you'll use very low resolution grids for outdoor landscape, and the GI solution degrades to very low quality, up to the point where you can see no improvment between vanilla Exodus and RT Exodus. That's actually the case.
Thus, the solution is not general, and no ideal choice for Epic.
From what i know about Lumen, that's way more complex. The effort and amount of innovation is way higher. Their solution is a mix of many techniques, approximations and hacks. Volume probe grides, attempts of surface caching, refinement in screenspace, various tracing paths ranging from global SDF to per model SDF, up to dynamic meshes with HW RT.
It's insanely complex at very high costs. I am sure they are not happy with it.
But they try, and nobody else does better. It's still an open problem, and even i'm disappointed the Matrix demo runs at 20 fps on my 10tf GPU, it's still impressive they make this monster work at all.
It's also fully automated, and no manual placement is needed. That's just important for production, even if we pay attention only to final FPS. No practical production - no games at all.
So you see i basically agree. I hope i did not sound too arrogant within my braces. I claim to have solved GI, but i already spend years on making it a practical and general solution, speaking of fully atomated tools. I might still fail on that, turning a decade of work useless and bringing me under the bridge.
It's way more difficult than the enduser can see, which applies to game development as a whole.
We make just silly games, but it's hard work. Thus - even if we fail on so many things - it sucks that always everybody points with fingers to us, calling us lazy, greedy, technically incompetent, socially incompetent, demotivated, and whatever else. So i just wanted to give the Epic guys some backing here. No big problem - just saying ; )
(my comments on various techniques are based on assumptions and may be partially incorrect)