TSMC warns of excessive chip inventory

DegustatoR said:
Easy. TSMC being at 150% capacity producing mining *things* for the last couple of years meant that everyone else (those who produce other *things* which happen to not sell with 1000% profit) had to wait in a long line to produce anything.
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But this is completely different manufacturer we're talking about here, PSMC is not TSMC, they have their own customer base doing different things (like those display driver ICs), they're not affected by TSMC producing GPUs at 150% or waiting times for other things at TSMC.
Or are you now suggesting their customers need things from both semiconductors and then decided to push more orders than ever in for PSMC while knowing they wouldn't be getting stuff from TSMC anytime soon? Yeah, that sounds plausible :rolleyes:
 
Kaotik said:
But this is completely different manufacturer we're talking about here, PSMC is not TSMC, they have their own customer base doing different things (like those display driver ICs), they're not affected by TSMC producing GPUs at 150% or waiting times for other things at TSMC.
Or are you now suggesting their customers need things from both semiconductors and then decided to push more orders than ever in for PSMC while knowing they wouldn't be getting stuff from TSMC anytime soon? Yeah, that sounds plausible :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
What I'm suggesting is easy to see if you put some effort into it.
Or are you saying that these display driver ICs can be manufactured only by PSMC?
 
DegustatoR said:
What I'm suggesting is easy to see if you put some effort into it.
Or are you saying that these display driver ICs can be manufactured only by PSMC?
Click to expand...
No, I'm saying that there is a global shortage affecting whole semiconductor field, even now when some specific markets like GPUs and apparently at least PSMCs display driver ICs are seeing dropping demand and are freeing (or trying to free) up capacity. Freeing up capacity doesn't happen overnight and won't be enough to solve the shortage, especially since possible free capacity is only for specific processes at specific fabs, you can't manufacture everything on every process in every fab.
In case of PSMC, growing demand lead to companies placing bigger orders, which reinforces chip shortage when there's no free capacity to put those orders in, and now that their specific demand is dropping their customers are panicking with all the orders they have placed in earlier. That capacity they want to free up (and are freeing up by paying fines) doesn't help anything that's not designed to be built on that specific process.
 
Kaotik said:
No, I'm saying that there is a global shortage affecting whole semiconductor field, even now when some specific markets like GPUs and apparently at least PSMCs display driver ICs are seeing dropping demand and are freeing (or trying to free) up capacity.
Click to expand...
And CPUs. And mobile SOCs. And various controllers used for storage devices. In fact it is somewhat hard to find a solid case of even a local shortage right now let alone a global one.
And this has been the case for some time now, with GPUs being the most obvious market where the demand was still a lot higher than supply - but now with miners out it is very clear that this wasn't some "global shortage" resulting in that, it was just miners.

Kaotik said:
Freeing up capacity doesn't happen overnight and won't be enough to solve the shortage, especially since possible free capacity is only for specific processes at specific fabs, you can't manufacture everything on every process in every fab.
Click to expand...
Good thing then that it was happening for >1 year now and we're likely at a point where there is basically no shortage of production to speak of. With GPUs being off the list now and global demand slowing down (because of reasons) I fully expect the situation to improve significantly over the next couple of months. But even now I don't see any shortage of any chips around me, do you? PS5 is like the last consumer product which sees insufficient supply at this point. Edit: Steam Deck also maybe? Should tell us something about the actual source of said issues I think.
 
Personally it would be really relieving news if the whole semiconductor industry wide situation suddenly returns back to normal. My company hasn't received MCUs for our main product since last autumn, and a "confirmation" was received a few months ago for delivery in Q2/23. Which was then retracted. A very small batch was just acquired with ludicrous price from what can be compared to a back-alley dealer on a shady part of town, once I get back from vacation we'll see if they even are the right stuff.

There has not been a real shortage in consumer stuff at all, compared to anything targeted for tougher environment.
 
DegustatoR said:
And CPUs. And mobile SOCs. And various controllers used for storage devices. In fact it is somewhat hard to find a solid case of even a local shortage right now let alone a global one.
And this has been the case for some time now, with GPUs being the most obvious market where the demand was still a lot higher than supply - but now with miners out it is very clear that this wasn't some "global shortage" resulting in that, it was just miners.


Good thing then that it was happening for >1 year now and we're likely at a point where there is basically no shortage of production to speak of. With GPUs being off the list now and global demand slowing down (because of reasons) I fully expect the situation to improve significantly over the next couple of months. But even now I don't see any shortage of any chips around me, do you? PS5 is like the last consumer product which sees insufficient supply at this point. Edit: Steam Deck also maybe? Should tell us something about the actual source of said issues I think.
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Right. So TSMC CEO just outright lies to their investors, same for several other companies. Guess we can wave good bye to them, lawsuits must already be flowing in.
 
Malo said:
You folks could just stop replying to him and let a new conversation in the thread start eventually.
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This. I have been summoned and ultimately, just agree to disagree. I'll trim back the personals and leave it at that.

Note you are free to ignore a line of discussion to generate your own. If you have specific questions or observations about the OP or industry, you don't have to connect them with other posts. If someone keeps interrupting such discussion with non-evolving opinion-spamming, that's something moderation can intervene on.
 
There is still an issue of chip yield which plays a large factor into final units for supply. Which even if fab space can be bought up, if yield is poor than you’re paying a lot to only get a little more.

I think Sony has been way ahead of MS in predicting demand for PS5 as per earlier statements from them before the consoles launched. They ramped up manufacturing in advance and managed to outsell XS consoles significantly during the drought of the first year. I’m not sensing a demand mistake from them, as they likely did not ramp down knowing the demand problems. I do believe it is a yield issue for them, and they may not be willing to pay for more fab space for only a few more units. More PS5s will arrive with better improvements to their yield.

I think MS has actually been buying up more fab space as they can see that demand for a while was vastly outstripping their supply. Which is why we have been seeing more
Series drops
 
www.digitimes.com

Second-, third-tier foundries drop prices

With demand for consumer MCUs and other mass-market chips falling, second- and third-tier foundries have started cutting their prices, according to sources at IC design houses.
www.digitimes.com

www.digitimes.com

MediaTek handset AP shipments likely to fall 30% in 2H22

MediaTek may see its mobile AP shipments fall 30% in the second half of 2022 from its original projections due to sluggish market demand for handsets, and whether its 20% annual revenue growth goal for the year will be adjusted remains to be seen, according to industry sources.
www.digitimes.com
 
DegustatoR said:
www.digitimes.com

Second-, third-tier foundries drop prices

With demand for consumer MCUs and other mass-market chips falling, second- and third-tier foundries have started cutting their prices, according to sources at IC design houses.
www.digitimes.com

www.digitimes.com

MediaTek handset AP shipments likely to fall 30% in 2H22

MediaTek may see its mobile AP shipments fall 30% in the second half of 2022 from its original projections due to sluggish market demand for handsets, and whether its 20% annual revenue growth goal for the year will be adjusted remains to be seen, according to industry sources.
www.digitimes.com
Click to expand...

Yup there is a HUGE demand for silicon, but foundries were rightly focused on maximizing returns so they increased prices in order to service companies that were willing to pay through the nose for silicon.

This meant massive shortages in things like automotive and IC components while Apple, NV, and AMD were more capable of bidding high for fab capacity and thus had less severe shortages due to the high margin nature of the products that they produced (compared to say IC component providers who have low margin silicon dependent products).

Now that demand has slowed in market sectors that those companies like NV service, then there are less bidders that can afford the really high fab. pricing.

So, similar to TSMC, they are now reducing price to a level that is within reach of other silicon starved sectors. This should eventually lead to eased supply constraints for other sectors. For example,

www.ksat.com

Hobbled by chip, other shortages, GM profit slides 40% in Q2

General Motors’ second-quarter net income fell 40% from a year ago as computer chip and parts shortages hobbled factory output and caused the company’s U.S. sales to fall more than 15%.
www.ksat.com www.ksat.com

www.businessinsider.com

GM has 95,000 vehicles waiting for parts as shortages continue to slam the auto industry

Most of the cars, trucks, and SUVs were built in June. General Motors said it plans to finish and ship them to dealers by the year's end.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com

Automotive is still being strangled by a shortage of chips due to many of the providers of those chips being unable to bid competitively with the likes of NV or AMD for fab capacity. Basically not all automotive makers can afford to use NV automotive chips, but the cheaper automotive chip makers were incredibly supply starved compared to NV due to inability to bid as high for fab capacity. Those chip makers are still starved for fab capacity but at least now prices at fabs are starting to go back down to something approaching pre-covid levels to where they might be able to secure more fab capacity in order to service more silicon starved industries.

Basically, now they'll have a better chance to get some fab. capacity in order to start alleviating some of the shortages.

It's likely to be at least another year, if not more, before we'll see silicon shortages across the board become less impactful for various industries.

It's nice that it's gotten there for PC and other high end silicon products, but the more important (to everyday consumers) component IC producers are still severely supply constrained. Albeit now at least there is a chance that they'll be able to secure fab capacity to start producing more IC components for other industries.

Regards,
SB
 
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That's good. A 3-6 month wait in order to get a Steam Deck (if you were to reserve one today) is certainly better than a 6+ month wait in order to get a Steam Deck. Estimated delivery of sometime between Oct-Dec of this year if you were to order one today.

Regards,
SB
 
digitalwanderer said:
I don't feel so much pity for the auto industry, they cancelled a bunch of chip orders anticipating a slump in sales from covid and are now getting bit in the ass by that decision.
Click to expand...
When your forecast shows that sales are about to fall off the cliff, any sane person with desire to keep his job would react to prevent throwing cash away. Manufacturing industry has had short inventory turnover as one of its most revered dogmas for a long time (in fact the bean counters are nagging about any attempts to increase stock of critical components even in this situation which tells a lot of their grasp of reality).
 
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