There's no reason to reach a conclusion about the Move strengthening the existing userbase on the grounds of the single move controller being sold out consistently.
I wanted to buy a couple of individual Move controllers and a nav controller because I bought a PlayStation Eye a couple of years ago, but how many PS3 users will have done that? I would expect most PS users getting into Move to buy at least the starter bundle with the camera and controller, and most individual controller sales going to beef up the number of players / the variety of games that can be played in an individual household.
Of course that's no less speculative than your suggestion. Without knowing how much Sony tilted their production and shipments towards bundles or individual controllers, we can't make much sense out of it.
It would be nice to get an idea of how many copies of Sports Champions Sony is selling, though..
Yes, my opinion was based on some general assumptions.
1. MS allocating more units to 4 GB bundles followed by equal quantities of stand alone and 250 GB bundles.
2. Sony allocating more units the stand alone controller followed by the starter pack and then more distantly the console bundle.
3. 1 household = 1 Kinect = 1-4 Moves.
Assumption for [1] being that MS is solidly targeting the casual buyer who most likely doesn't have an X360 and who might be more attracted to the price of a 4 GB model versus a 250 GB model. Stand alone models would be opportunistic sales to owners who may have a girlfriend, wife, and/or kids. 250 GB models would be for more affluent casuals as well as potential owners of PS3's who do not have an X360 (ie - core gamer with a wife/girlfriend and/or kids).
Assumption for [2] is that Sony has designed experiences specifically to take advantage of (although not required) 2 controllers combined with the established base of PS3 owners who already have a camera (especially in Europe). As well, for simultaneous mutiplayer gaming, you'll need a Move for each person. So not everyone wanting Move will need the starter pack, so potential of 1-4 standard moves can be sold. And even those without a camera who buy a starter pack may want one or more controllers, so potential for 1-3 standard moves to be sold. And for the console bundle. Ummm. Just how attractive is Move so far for casuals when compared with Kinect? Especially if a casual is looking at 299 USD versus 399 USD. And those knowledgeable enough to think about whether they need a HDD (399 USD Kinect bundle) will also start thinking about the price of additional Move controllers and potential nav controllers. And once again, potential for 1-3 Move controller sales with each console bundle.
Of course, there's always the chance that Sony execs weren't confident in their own product and allocated less stand alone units because they expect most PS3 owners to want 1 move controller at most and that people with a camera wouldn't be as interested in Move. But I'd rather give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they expected and were hoping that people would want multiple Moves as well as people with cameras wanting a Move.
Hmmm, going back to assumptions for [2]. High demand for Kinect might actually help Sony inadvertantly. As price gouging on Kinect 4 GB model is pushing it up to the price of the Move console bundle at some e-tailers. It probably won't affect brick and mortar sales, but may help Sony a tad in online sales.
Anyway, as for Move. I think the only big variable here is how many Move controllers does Sony project for each "household." I'm going to assume their projections are for somewhere between 2-4 Moves per household when averaged out. Higher than 2, and definitely lower than 4.
Regards,
SB
