NovemberMike
Regular
Have you ever had a course in statistics? This goes for everyone arguing with us.
The hugely scientific console reliability poll
- Thread starter Shifty Geezer
- Start date
Have you ever had a course in statistics? This goes for everyone arguing with us.
Anyway taking this poll as indicative of an accurate percentage that would be found in the population is of course wrong. But is anyone saying so? This poll is enough to show a shocking trend...a trend which should not be there for electronic equipment. And one which should not be down played
The catch is of course...
Even if someone had a course in statistics, it doesn't mean that he/she will apply it correctly.
But it will certainly will make them more qualified to answer than somebody whos not. A person without any knowledge in statistics is certainly going to have wrong theories (im guessing you are in this part)
dont worry il answer your other post tomorrow, its getting to late, and i dont have the mental capacity right now.
Bigus Dickus
Regular
Oh shit.
First, if you would bother reading those "multiple complex posts" taking "hours" of work, you would realize that we all agree the 360 has a higher than expected failure rate... high enough to get MS's ass into action to address it. We aren't trying to refute anything but a ridiculous number pulled out of people's asses.
Second, it takes surprisingly little time and effort to explain something that you happen to know a little about. I suppose it takes even less time to concoct grand conspiracy theories, pull numbers out of your ass, and deny simple logic though, right?
Third, this forum and this thread in particular have reached a disgusting new low when anyone bothering to correct idiots who can't reason their way out of a wet paper bag is now labeled a paid Microsoft PR undercover damage control agent.
A bit cynical and abrasive? Well, when people skip the posts that clearly explain what is undeniably flawed with polls like this and the wild-assed conclusions it leads people to draw, out of pure laziness no less, just to hop in at the end and say the same damned erroneous things that we have been responding to again, and again, and again, and again... and then have the nerve to call us paid shills, well... I'm just a bit more than offended.
The interesting point is that those people agreeing to the fact that XB360's reliability is low are basing their opinions on non-scientific data. There's been no scientific poll that anyone can link to. All we have are forum posts saying 'XB360's keep dying' and media reports that keep saying 'XB360's keep dying' without providing scientific measurements to back up their stories.
If only properly, scientifically collated data can be used to form a sensible opinion, and non-statistically correct data cannot be considered representative of anything, surely there's no reason to believe XB360's have a higher failure rate than any other machine? The failure rate may only be 1%, as all the data we have is non-statistically correct and so can be disregarded as anomalous.
The reason, shitfy, for why i'm saying nobody is refuting it, is because you can form opinions based on other stuff than factual data. (me using the words "nobody is refuting the fact" was a bad choice of words however) and nobody here seems to be denying they have the impression of the X360 dying a lot.
That is all, an impression of the X360 dying a lot. Nobody here truly knows if it dies a lot or not, we don't have conclusive proof of that .
That is all, an impression of the X360 dying a lot. Nobody here truly knows if it dies a lot or not, we don't have conclusive proof of that .
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You are in no way able to discount the factors playing in here, without flawing the data even more. This poll data is only useful for making a statistic for the population in the sample. You cannot use it for anything else.
And this is where the problems begin. You have a theory about this data being useful that defies statistic and mathematical logic. Please write up a theorem and send it to Nobel, price money is $1 million, and frankly if you can prove statistical and mathematical logics wrong in this topic, you are going to win.
Problem with your explanations shifty, is that YOU disregarded all my arguments about how unreliable this sort of thing is, as IRRELEVANT. Then you go prove in the follow up post, that you indeed have no freakin' clue about statics, (with your marble example, and with your theory about how you heard something about 90% accurate).
And then you try to explain why you are correct in this assesment. with arguments based not on knowledge from a university or college, but based on your own made up logic.
The biggest problem here, is that im trying to argue with you based on statistics and mathematical rules, and you dont understand it. You even go as far as discrediting the arguments you dont understand.
You can try to use your own logic your way into this data being useful for anything other than population sample at hand, but then you would be disagreeing with the National Science Association and National Statistics Association, and thats the end of it. If you believe your own half-arsed logic is better, go ahead, but dont waste my time (and your own) trying to use what is according to you a logical reasoning that beats mathematical and statistical rules of logic, you dont understand in the first place.
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That is has been explained in detail as to why it is important by a number of posts, by me and other posters also by
publicagenda, American Statistical Assosiation , National Science Assosiation, this is where the links are coming from, they all say, You have to have data collected in a proper fashion, or else the results your going to get will be flawed.
Its irrelevant as to what you are polling. If you do not collect data in a proper fashion, and a specially if your sample is based on volunteers, they are going to get flawed because of personal interest (a person with a broken console is more interested in reporting this, than a person with a working one, for example) and biases.
What part of people voluntarily seeking out this topic and voting, and people being randomly selected to participate in a poll dont you understand the difference of? Tell me and i will answer.
It has already been explained in the prior posts, and its also pointed out by the articles linked and quoted from made by the National Science and Statistics Associations: the fact alone that this is a voluntary poll is going to tamper with results.
What you think will affect the poll result or not is not something im going to try to bother spending more time on explaining, as your asking the exact same question regardless of the answer.
This has already been explained in detail several times.
Really? YOU think polling have some advantages? What experience do you have with statistics, if you dont mind me asking?
Its not a matter of how hard it is to filter out overlapping data, its having data that is random enough to be accurate (sounds kinda wierd huh?) and that also fits certain (already explained characteristics in earlier posts) if your going to combine sample data. It is crazy hard.
Taking one flawed, unaccurate poll, and mixing it up with another flawed, unaccurate poll is not going to give you any meaningful numbers.
I explained to you in detail as to why its difficult to add samples like that. Even if we disregard the whole method of sample selection (and the fact that a webpoll would give you flawed results in terms of that), at the very minimum, these samples would have to be taken from different demographic groups
Sure, you may refuse to participate in a poll where you are selected. Ther fundamental difference to a person answering a poll that he himself decided to participate in, and a person agreeing to be polled, when he is randomly selected. Again, this does not have to be about registering as a new member, its about bothering to respond to something that may or may not interest you.
No, even if 5000 people from B3D answered in this poll, it would still be wrong, because B3D is not going to give a an answer remotely similar to the real world. People at b3d have completely different buying and gaming habits than of the real world.
Then the whole way the data is collected is the biggest flaw.
Collecting more in dept information could be useful yes, but it wouldn't help in this case to make it any more valid.
WOW. just wow.
I'm supposed to listen to YOU instead of the NATIONAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION, NATIONAL STATISTICS ASSOCIATION, and the biggest poller in the states, and opposed to myself, which actually has an education in this stuff.
And why? Because your argument is that your able to use it correctly. (something that we people with real actual knowledge about this field aren't).
Your completely disregarding direct quotes from accomplished scientists.
Here, this is the telephone numbers to the Alfred Nobel Centre in Oslo, im sure they will know the proper people to contact in order to get you nominated, so you can win this million dollar price : +47 483 01 000
number is legit btw.
I still don't get why people are trying to downplay these statistics.
They represent the number of people who have difficulties with their X360, PS3 and Wii on Beyond3d.
People say they don't represent the average consumer, so what, they don't need to. They provide equal representation in the "type of user" across all 3 consoles for which we can lay a basis for.
Do the naysayers of this poll have any data for the "average consumer".
All I have seen are lengthy posts
- as to why this poll is irrelevant or incorrect, but no hard data of their own to state otherwise.
- as to how this data can be skewed by people with agenda's. Well, you can see who voted for what, so the onus is on you to prove so.
- lengthy analogies that are completely off the mark.
Can people just not accept that X360 "might" just have an abnormally high failure rate ?
They represent the number of people who have difficulties with their X360, PS3 and Wii on Beyond3d.
People say they don't represent the average consumer, so what, they don't need to. They provide equal representation in the "type of user" across all 3 consoles for which we can lay a basis for.
Do the naysayers of this poll have any data for the "average consumer".
All I have seen are lengthy posts
- as to why this poll is irrelevant or incorrect, but no hard data of their own to state otherwise.
- as to how this data can be skewed by people with agenda's. Well, you can see who voted for what, so the onus is on you to prove so.
- lengthy analogies that are completely off the mark.
Can people just not accept that X360 "might" just have an abnormally high failure rate ?
I asked in my first post in this thread if everyone here honestly believed 20% of the systems were broken. I got no reply. I think it would be silly to even entertain a number that high. That is about 2 million units broken. You'd think someone would have noticed that, I dunno maybe it is just me.
It sounds like everyone is getting stuck on a percentage, even though Shifty said he didn't expect the numbers to give an accurate percentage. I think he was going for a general trend. Which some here are also arguing is incorrect based on the way the poll was conducted. It has been a while since I was last in a stat class (that I hated oh so much, why didn't I take AP calculus like everyone else???) so while I understand what you guys are saying some of it is vaguely familiar.
It sounds like everyone is getting stuck on a percentage, even though Shifty said he didn't expect the numbers to give an accurate percentage. I think he was going for a general trend. Which some here are also arguing is incorrect based on the way the poll was conducted. It has been a while since I was last in a stat class (that I hated oh so much, why didn't I take AP calculus like everyone else???) so while I understand what you guys are saying some of it is vaguely familiar.
I agree, I think that % can be construed either way, and people are getting hung up on them.
I wouldn't go as far as to say that this thread is an accurate measure of that exact % (just checked the % now .. almost 50% ?) , but hopefully there is a general consensus, just from what we have seen on various message boards and media outlets, that the X360 has a higher than normal (for this gen) failure rate.
I wouldn't go as far as to say that this thread is an accurate measure of that exact % (just checked the % now .. almost 50% ?) , but hopefully there is a general consensus, just from what we have seen on various message boards and media outlets, that the X360 has a higher than normal (for this gen) failure rate.
Because initially they took a stupid stand in saying these types of polls are not useful at all, and have been frantically back-pedaling ever since.
Back-pedaling as in attempting to simultaneously defend their position that the polls tell you nothing, while also admitting that it appears that the xbox360 is very unreliable (a conclusion they obtained, while kicking and screaming, by reading... yes .. forums and polls).
Nobody thinks the percentages are accurate, the facts are the MTBF sucks. Anyone can see it, only someone with a private agenda needs to argue endlessly to undermine the conclusion. The topic should be locked.
Agreed. The numbers are there, they say what they say. All the arguments against so far have been totally recursive whilst offering no facts or figures to suggest otherwise.
Now if you took the percentage of people who are so dismissive or blatantly throwing a hissy fit and compare it to the number of people who are just going, wow there's a definite trend, think the numbers are a bit high though... wonder what you'd get?
Now if you took the percentage of people who are so dismissive or blatantly throwing a hissy fit and compare it to the number of people who are just going, wow there's a definite trend, think the numbers are a bit high though... wonder what you'd get?
Bigus Dickus
Regular
Was it not MS themselves that released the 3-5% figure, which is huge? That alone tells me that 360's have reliability problems, and that the MTBF, especially for early units, was low. Now, any further speculation that it might be a little higher than that even is pure speculation... you'll see that I haven't agreed to anyone's speculation in that direction, though I freely admit it is possible that the number is higher.
Now you're just grasping at straws. If you're going to label people as hypocrits at least get your story worked out before hand.
Bigus Dickus
Regular
It is not a stupid stand, it is a matter of statistics that this poll can't be generalized and extrapolated in the way that some are attempting to. And there is no back-pedaling; the arguments from us paid shills have been rock solid and unwavering since the first posts.
This poll might tell us something... about people at B3D. That's it. We admit the 360 is unreliable based off of MS's own published statements. Some have formed impressions beyond those published numbers, but don't dare pass them off as factual statements.
Like Shifty, if you're going to label people as hypocrits get your story worked out first so you don't look like a fool.
Bigus Dickus
Regular
You can't even say that. All you can say is that the poll might represent the console problems among that subset of B3D posters who decided to respond to the poll.
There is a published number. It may or may not be entirely accurate, but MS's published financials support the conclusion that it is much closer to reality than any of these forum polls. Were the failure rate to be 50%, or 30%, or whatever number you pull out of your ass, MS's bottom line would have reflected that more prominently.
Bigus Dickus
Regular
It isn't a hissy fit, and it isn't dismissive. It is simply stating the truth about polls such as this. And if you'd open your eyes for a moment you would see that each of those "people" are also in the category of thinking there is a definite trend and that the numbers are high.
Rainbow Man
Veteran
Why the limitation?
Do you think B3D users are some kind of super duper console players that break consoles mroe easily than others or something?
If anything I'd believe it's the opposite since I get the impression the average age of people here is fairly high. This means kids families etc. And most of us probably play on PCs too which competes with time played on consoels.
Unless you haven't been paying attention it should be no news to you that kids today game A LOT. And it's cheaper for a parent to buy the kid a console than to buy a top notch PC to game on. Not to mention the kid might want a console more than a PC.
So console use by youth is probably at least comparable to your average B3Der and quite probably even higher.
Ok I'm done now passing off opinions as facts.
Peace.
This thread is going nowhere.
Everybody does seem to agree that the Xbox360 fails at an alarming and unacceptable high rate. Which in and off itself should be very disconcerting to Microsoft.
I think the warranty extension was to avoid consumer revolt, but it's only a temporary fix IMO. I can only guess that the problem is not very straight forward to address, because it defies logic that it has not been fixed yet (and there is little evidence that they have addressed anything other than the initial memory issues). I think this is the biggest thing hurting them right now, even more than price. The 360 has a reputation of being unreliable, and it will not be easy to get rid of that now.
Everybody does seem to agree that the Xbox360 fails at an alarming and unacceptable high rate. Which in and off itself should be very disconcerting to Microsoft.
I think the warranty extension was to avoid consumer revolt, but it's only a temporary fix IMO. I can only guess that the problem is not very straight forward to address, because it defies logic that it has not been fixed yet (and there is little evidence that they have addressed anything other than the initial memory issues). I think this is the biggest thing hurting them right now, even more than price. The 360 has a reputation of being unreliable, and it will not be easy to get rid of that now.
