*spin-off* NPD to no longer release HW/SW sales numbers

[DuckThor Evil]

When did enjoying sales numbers and enjoying games become mutually exclusive?

That thought might be too complex for some to comprehend, considering that they seem to think that, without accurate sales information the signal to noise ratio would be better in forum discussions.

Whilst the US is the largest single country WRT consoles sold. NA is in fact the smallest region of the world WRT video games, the order is
#1 asia/pacific
#2 europe etc
#3 NA
Yet on this board 90% of talk is about NPD

Depends on what sort of metric you use and what you include in it. If you measure home console unit sales, then it's the reverse of your chart.

 

[Rangers]

Some of us dont actually play video games

It certainly gives a far more accurate picture of roughly how many consoles are out there worldwide than NPD (or japan numbers etc) do. Sure a manufacturer can play around with the figures somewhat. The most famous example this generation was MS Q4 2006 when they released 4.4million for the quarter (to make the 10million milestone they said they would do) but it will bite them in the ass, eg the quarter after that (in MS's case that was 0.5million) i.e. theres only so much you can massage the figures by.
Quarter shipments are the best indication of how a console is performing bar none, far better than NPD which true whilst the US is the largest single country WRT consoles sold. NA is in fact the smallest region of the world WRT video games, the order is
#1 asia/pacific
#2 europe etc
#3 NA
Yet on this board 90% of talk is about NPD

Well, maybe there are a lot of Europeans here but, I would think that's because there's no numbers for most of the rest of the world. Particularly Europe. It's also an english speaking board.

Japan numbers are well discussed.

Quarterly ship numbers are good but subject to manipulation. Corporations manipulate far more important information than relatively meaningless ship data all the time (example, Toyota stonewalling about it's accelerator problems).

 

[Rangers]

Starting with their monthly report tomorrow, October 14, NPD will also be changing in their monthly reporting:

A shift in the Top 10 software chart from SKU, featuring sales numbers for the top five, to merely a Top 10 software chart with no unit sales.
A revised footnote explaining that sales numbers are based on physical sales, not amount of consumer spending. They will now release a full quarterly report to the press, instead.
New monthly analyses from NPD analyst Anita Frazier.

Hmm, is that quarterly report supposed to be explicit hardware sales and the like? Or just generalities?

 

[NathansFortune]

The problem with the quarterly data is that we have no insight into how it's formulated. All three companies mean subtly different things by "sold" and "shipped". At least the NPD numbers, while they might not be entirely accurate, are all based on the same data and definitions, so the three numbers are comparable.

Now what we're going to get is the three companies spinning the numbers that make them look good and not mentioning the numbers that don't. Nintendo will crow each month about how the nintendo "platform" outsells all the others (combining all their products into one number). Sony will go on about how well they compare to last year, while also bundling numbers. And MS will make sure everyone knows they sell the most HD consoles. We'll come out of it not actually knowing anything more than we did going in, but with enough non-information to generate many pages of heated conversations

It's kinda like what the celphone companies do. They all claim they have the "most reliable" network, they all just define "reliable" differently. (One uses dropped calls, one uses available connectivity, etc)

Yes, but they are still rock hard figures as to what each company has sold to the market WW. In the absence of data for numbers sold to the consumer, sold to the market is the best we can do. All three companies report their quarterly shipped figures as sold to the market now. Sony were final company to switch definitions from shipped being the number of units that had rolled off the production line to shipped being number of units we have sold to retailers and distributors.

It's obviously not perfect, but it is good enough to gauge how well each console is doing as over-shipment can be spotted very easily. I mean at the end of 2006 MS unloaded a bunch of unwanted 360s onto the channel and people accused them of overshipping to meet fiscal targets, they denied, but lo-and-behold over the next two quarters MS shipped less than 0.5m consoles.

I think it is safe to assume that shipped figures aren't going to be fiddled either as it is not a fanboy cock waving contest like NPD press releases, they are cold hard facts for investors. Cooking the books to look good for fanboys will lead to lawsuits and pain, which is the last thing a respectable company wants just to make their console fans feel happy...

 

[NathansFortune]

Quarterly ship numbers are good but subject to manipulation. Corporations manipulate far more important information than relatively meaningless ship data all the time (example, Toyota stonewalling about it's accelerator problems).

Not in the least. Physical overshipment and post-dating are about the only tools a company has to fiddle shipment figures. Both have their downsides. The first is obvious and we all saw the fallout of MS shipping a gazillion consoles in 2006. Post-dating is a more subtle dark art, but the downside to that is that it can create a sense of there being a product shortage when there isn't one, which is a negative for investors.

All three console manufacturers can be accused of at least one of these practices, MS of both in fact. Even so, the figures they provide should be taken as the truth unless information leaks from within the company telling us otherwise, but that will be a much bigger scandal than just inflating figures if that happens (like the Toyota recall you mentioned).

 

[Rolf N]

I wish we had multiple independent sources for NA sales, like we do for Japan. None of this bullshit would be possible then.

 

[NRP]

In my fantasy world I'm hoping people will forget about the "sales war" and go back to enjoying video games. But I'm expecting a lot of Amazon sales charts, and pie charts about install base or attach ratios.

Perhaps now zed can make some money off his bizzaro charts.

 

[zed]

Depends on what sort of metric you use and what you include in it.

Im using the same data source as Rangers

WRT quarterly shipment numbers, Yes NathansFortune summed it up best, whilst its possible to fiddle the books/overship one quarter. The next quarter you'll be found out.
To imply otherwise is a conspiracy best left up to _xxx_

@ NRP shhhh
Obviously amazon etc wont give you accurate numbers but I believe will give you reasonable percentage ratios on how things a selling against each other.
Also it looks possible the wii will be cut to $150 this year (my reading of the amazon figures)

 

[Scott_Arm]

And so it begins.

 

[Deepak]

Haven't read the thread but will they be releasing data for Sept?

 

[AlphaWolf]

Haven't read the thread but will they be releasing data for Sept?

Seems like the change will be immediate, we'll find out within a few hours.

 

[bkilian]

Not in the least. Physical overshipment and post-dating are about the only tools a company has to fiddle shipment figures. Both have their downsides. The first is obvious and we all saw the fallout of MS shipping a gazillion consoles in 2006. Post-dating is a more subtle dark art, but the downside to that is that it can create a sense of there being a product shortage when there isn't one, which is a negative for investors.

All three console manufacturers can be accused of at least one of these practices, MS of both in fact. Even so, the figures they provide should be taken as the truth unless information leaks from within the company telling us otherwise, but that will be a much bigger scandal than just inflating figures if that happens (like the Toyota recall you mentioned).

Only two? What about playing with the definition of "shipped"? Until recently, Sony counted every console as "shipped" as soon as it left manufacturing, even if all it was being shipped to was a warehouse.

There are many many ways to choose your facts carefully so you look good to your investors.

 

[NavNucST3]

Some of us dont actually play video games

It certainly gives a far more accurate picture of roughly how many consoles are out there worldwide than NPD (or japan numbers etc) do. Sure a manufacturer can play around with the figures somewhat. The most famous example this generation was MS Q4 2006 when they released 4.4million for the quarter (to make the 10million milestone they said they would do) but it will bite them in the ass, eg the quarter after that (in MS's case that was 0.5million) i.e. theres only so much you can massage the figures by.
Quarter shipments are the best indication of how a console is performing bar none, far better than NPD which true whilst the US is the largest single country WRT consoles sold. NA is in fact the smallest region of the world WRT video games, the order is
#1 asia/pacific
#2 europe etc
#3 NA
Yet on this board 90% of talk is about NPD

How does one reconcile what I bolded with the fact that while MSFT SHIPPED more units in 2006 while they SOLD-THROUGH more in 2007 simply because they had stuffed the channel in 2006 to hit the 10M shipped number you say this yourself. Maybe I am misunderstanding how you are calculating performance? Is a shipment number more important than a sell-through number?

 

[Rangers]

@ NRP shhhh
Obviously amazon etc wont give you accurate numbers but I believe will give you reasonable percentage ratios on how things a selling against each other.
Also it looks possible the wii will be cut to $150 this year (my reading of the amazon figures)

There's no way you can say that. It's very unlikely Amazon is a representative sample. I know you refuse to believe me there was times in the past where on Amazon PS3 hardware was outselling 360 hugely (PS3 was in the teens, no 360 SKU higher than the 50's or even 80's), yet every NPD around that time they turned up even or 360 ahead.

I mean just think, a person who orders online is probably going to be more sophisticated, possibly have more money, possibly be less hardcore, etc etc. The hardcore are going to a midnight launch with their Cheetos eating buddies, not sitting back waiting for Amazon to ship them a game leisurely. There's just lots of reason the Amazon demographic wont match the Wal Mart demographic. Anyways, it's a shame NPD got cut off just in time that we cant give your predictions a hard look Hey if you were right, more power to you, but I'd like to see the facts.

Anyway, I was going to say, if NPD is going to give us quarterly hardware, then we can easily deduce this September sales anyway of course, though that obviously wont work in the future.

Perhaps now zed can make some money off his bizzaro charts.

Maybe he can go to work for Vgchartz lol. Or compete with them if he thinks he has a better system.

This is the type of thing I do think if Vgchartz isn't total bullshit, you could hypothetically get some data out of. Another obvious one would be how many ratings different X360 games have on Live as a sales indicator. And of course gamertag/achievement data that's public, Leaderboards, various sorts of things like that.

 

[Rangers]

Not in the least. Physical overshipment and post-dating are about the only tools a company has to fiddle shipment figures. Both have their downsides. The first is obvious and we all saw the fallout of MS shipping a gazillion consoles in 2006. Post-dating is a more subtle dark art, but the downside to that is that it can create a sense of there being a product shortage when there isn't one, which is a negative for investors.

All three console manufacturers can be accused of at least one of these practices, MS of both in fact. Even so, the figures they provide should be taken as the truth unless information leaks from within the company telling us otherwise, but that will be a much bigger scandal than just inflating figures if that happens (like the Toyota recall you mentioned).

The companies are creating the numbers, they can manipulate them right at the source, even fabricate them.

I'm even thinking about Apple here, when Apple says "we sold/shipped xxx million ipads" What do you think? I personally tend to look at it a bit skeptically, knowing they're finding some way to inflate the figures or otherwise make them look best. You could say the same when Android says "we're activating xxx machines every day".

And like I said, the Toyota issues were sometimes a literal matter of life and death, yet they stonewalled investigators. So you really think they wont play with comparatively meaningless shipment numbers to meet a forecast, when it's hard to see who would ever even challenge the figures, let alone what little punishment would occur even IF it could be proved? This is especially true I think with Japanese companies, good luck getting sensitive info out of them when you have a thick language barrier to boot, again the Toyota scandal.

 

[zed]

Is a shipment number more important than a sell-through number?

They are closely related.
A company is hardly gonna ship extra consoles quarter after quarter after quarter if theyre not finding anyone to buy them.
Sure you can get away with it with one or perhaps two quarters but over time you can't unless you're willing to lose billions.
Businesses are in it to make a profit. the game console business is no different.

I agree Shipping != Sold
but it is the best indication we have of roughly how its selling.

Hmmm I dont see what is so hard to understand about this?
This is just business 101.

 

[Acert93]

In my fantasy world I'm hoping people will forget about the "sales war" and go back to enjoying video games. But I'm expecting a lot of Amazon sales charts, and pie charts about install base or attach ratios.

But the numbers were a good gauge of market movement and demographics that were before not transparent. Seeing surprising unit sales for software and the impact, or lack of impact, on hardware of certain titles put many myths and misconceptions to rest. For those interested in the industry as such this is a sad move because NPD was consistent in release schedule as well consistency of how they generated data. It also covers the biggest single market.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Im using the same data source as Rangers

Your chart still isn't accurate if only home console unit sales are measured. NA has the most units sold. If there are Gazillion WoW players in China etc. or if prices and currency rates raise Europe over NA, it still doesn't mean that NA is the smallest in all important metrics and in home consoles it most certainly is not.

 

[Mobius1aic]

Sales news is pretty annoying and I fear it's changing people's perceptions a high degree instead of focusing on the end product and it's quality.

 

[mrcorbo]

I see the problem with using shipped numbers as a replacement for monthly sell-through numbers is that not only are the shipped numbers only quarterly, but you really need to have both the preceding and following quarter's numbers as well in order to put the quarter you are focusing on in the proper context. I'm not pleased at the prospect of waiting for 3-6 months for a proper picture of the market. In no way is this a "good thing".

As for the sentiment that, "now we can get back to focusing on what is important and stop all the fanboi warz". Yeah, we'll see about that. It's not like we've ever seen anyone take any other single arbitrary fact about a game like resolution, frame-rate, disk-space etc. and use it as the definitive indication of a game's quality over another.