*spin-off* NPD to no longer release HW/SW sales numbers

[patsu]

Unless you are trying to boost stock price of your company in spite of what may happen long term. Not something we're in danger of Sony doing, but it has happened and continues to happen from time to time. Media Vision and the Pro Audio Spectrum line of audio add in cards for PC always come to mind whenever I see discussions over shipped/ordered versus sold at retail numbers.

When the SEC finally cracked down on them they had warehouses (plural) full of shipped/ordered product collecting dust.

That's so long ago. Serbanes Oxley has tightened up practices quite a fair bit, so much so that I often hear overseas subsidiaries of US public companies bitch about it.

There is no reason for Sony to lie about ship numbers. They don't particular care about polishing up Playstation brands. They are more interested in real $$$. Channel stuffing can cost companies a lot of money.

 

[Rangers]

You believe Pachter's guesses over Sony's shipped numbers, or just whatever shows Sony in an unfavorable light?

They shipped (and got paid for) 2.5M moves. That's all that matters to them. Retailers won't order more if they don't sell. Given that it's out of stock in many places and distribution channels aren't that inefficient, they've sold a lot. They were even mulling increasing production the other day.

I say not bad for something that doesn't have any compelling software besides the pack-in yet.

I believe hard figures over Sony's seemingly consistently inflated ship numbers, yes...

I consider Pachters 300k pretty close to a hard fact, since he has a NPD subscription (I believe he has mentioned this on his GT show before), and leaked the console hardware numbers.

You can believe Sony's rosy story and I'll stay a tad skeptical

Here is UK sales for September: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=23956416&postcount=9

UK September Top 10 (Enterbrain/Chart-Track -- Individual Format):

01 [360] Halo: Reach - 509k
02 [360] FIFA 11 - 367k
03 [PS3] FIFA 11 - 345k
04 [360] F1 2010 - 132k
05 [PS3] F1 2010 - 126k
06 [360] Dead Rising 2 - 72k
07 [360] Mafia II - 55k
08 [PS3] Mafia II - 51k
09 [PS3] Dead Rising 2 - 44k
10 [PS3] Sports Champion - 38k

- Covers weeks 35, 36, 37, 38 and 39.
- 90% of the market (numbers mentioned to the media are usually extrapolated to 100%, so be careful when do your estimations).

Not exactly the sign of a product doing Wii style numbers. Now, I know SC isn't bundled with Move in EU, still, if the product was super popular one might expect the top software to be doing a little better. Whenever we get hard figures or charts Move doesnt seems to be tearing it up. We will get more hard numbers from Japan soon, and my guess again is dont expect a lot.

Now too be fair, I saw that Move was 2nd for the month in Spain I believe, and also sold at least 60k in Italy (assuming these foreign sales reports from translated and who knows if reliable websites are true). So that's pretty decent.

My guess from what I see, also from Amazon rankings Move is selling modestly, not badly, but not great. Probably having a bit better legs than I expected.

You can probably also throw a lot into "Move sales". The Move PS3, the SC bundle, separate Move wands, and even the Nav controller could be counted separately by Sony for all we know.

 

[patsu]

I consider Pachters 300k pretty close to a hard fact, since he has a NPD subscription (I believe he has mentioned this on his GT show before), and leaked the console hardware numbers.

... about Pachters:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/10/sony-move-controllers-playstation-3-ship.html?

The combined sales exceeded some analysts' expectations.

"It's ahead of what I thought previously," said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities. "I think that they are a lock to sell 3 to 4 million by Dec. 31, and a lock to hit more than 5 million by fiscal year end" on March 31.

How does Chart-Track cover Sports Champions bundle ? Under accessories or under games ?

EDIT: Oops, no bundle in Europe.

 

[Rotmm]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2010/10/sony-move-controllers-playstation-3-ship.html?

Although Sony's numbers are for controllers it had shipped to stores, there's a good chance that many of them, if not all, have sold. Many stores sell out of the devices as soon as they're received, said John Koller, director of hardware marketing for Sony's PlayStation business in Foster City, Calif.

Are they not gonna offer money for anyone who can find one on store shelves this time? I made some serious cash because of Sony's generosity last time around.... though admittedly I still haven't received the cheque

 

[patsu]

Hah, US dollars is so low that he probably needs to save the money for his trips to Japan.

EDIT: Hmm... re-read their press release, so they bumped up the production twice ? What was their initial estimates ? :-/

 

[obonicus]

Are they not gonna offer money for anyone who can find one on store shelves this time? I made some serious cash because of Sony's generosity last time around.... though admittedly I still haven't received the cheque

A week ago I was in the US in the DC area and hunted for the the standalone controller. It was backordered on amazon, bestbuy.com, walmart.com and gamestop.com. I visited 4 different gamestops, 2 bestbuys and 1 walmart personally. The only gamestop in the area that had one was apparently far away in MD (I have no idea how far, not being familiar with the area). I wish there were a ton of them in stock in stores, that way I wouldn't have had to bust my ass hunting (and end up failing anyway).

I got word that there was a restock on the 18th, which is just my luck.

 

[Rangers]

Here's more for our arguments Patsu

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=23918384&postcount=1659

Sorry if old.

This week IGN Gamescoop podcast leaked out some numbers. They said the highest Move standalone title sold was EyePet, and still that was less than 30,000.

Also apparently a PSP sales leak there: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=23918604&postcount=1660

PSP hardware sales were down 44% from last year, according to Wedbush's Pachter.

If Pachter is correct, the PSP sales were 106,624

I'm also beginning to wonder about Kinect sales, it's doing OK on Amazon but last I saw was still 10th place, not so great with release rapidly nearing. Further VGChartz places the Kinect preorders on a pace to be at 250k day one I believe, which isn't gangbusters compared to a 3m prediction by MS.

 

[patsu]

There is a simple explanation. People can buy the controller to play patched games like Heavy Rain, MAG, Resident Evil, or other PSN games. Some may even play with the demo disc. I don't think your software sales means much to the controller sales. People can also buy more than one controller per household.

I don't really see there is any worthwhile argument since there is not enough data point, or rather there are too many scenarios.

 

[ShadowRunner]

There is a simple explanation. People can buy the controller to play patched games like Heavy Rain, MAG, Resident Evil, or other PSN games. Some may even play with the demo disc. I don't think your software sales means much to the controller sales. People can also buy more than one controller per household.

I don't really see there is any worthwhile argument since there is not enough data points, or rather too many scenarios.

Exactly what i did, havent bought a game yet. Id expect move to have quite a high sell-through to anyone who already had the games you mention. For me, even if i had no games already, id have got it just to test it out with the demos, knowing that in the future it would have support in games i was going to buy anyway like Killzone 3...

 

[Rotmm]

....Kinect preorders on a pace to be at 250k day one I believe, which isn't gangbusters compared to a 3m prediction by MS.

To be fair, that 3m prediction was for "the holiday season" and not day 1, which accounts to about 7 weeks and includes both Black Friday and the general Xmas rush.

 

[goonergaz]

Exactly what i did, havent bought a game yet. Id expect move to have quite a high sell-through to anyone who already had the games you mention. For me, even if i had no games already, id have got it just to test it out with the demos, knowing that in the future it would have support in games i was going to buy anyway like Killzone 3...

yeah, I only bought SC because it was so good - without that I would have been more than happy with the demos, eyepet and heavy rain. BTW, I have 4 Move and 1 Nav - IIRC this 1M = both types of controllers, so a WW total of 2.5M probably is more like 1M actual moves in houses (at a totally plucked out of the sky guess) - of which I would pluck a maximum of 750K unique users, so potentially 2.5M 'headline' is 750K adopters. All wild guess, but you can see some logic.

either way Sony have 'sold' 2.5M controllers and have the cash

 

[Prophecy2k]

yeah, I only bought SC because it was so good - without that I would have been more than happy with the demos, eyepet and heavy rain. BTW, I have 4 Move and 1 Nav - IIRC this 1M = both types of controllers, so a WW total of 2.5M probably is more like 1M actual moves in houses (at a totally plucked out of the sky guess) - of which I would pluck a maximum of 750K unique users, so potentially 2.5M 'headline' is 750K adopters. All wild guess, but you can see some logic.

either way Sony have 'sold' 2.5M controllers and have the cash

We don't know if this 1M shipped in NA or the 1.5M shipped in the EMEA includes both the MOVE controllers and nav controllers. I'd be more inclined to believe that it only speaks of the MOVE controllers, MOVE starter packs and MOVE PS3 bundles as i don't consider the NAV a MOVE controller and i don't think Sony would either... otherwise why not include PSEye numbers? That was they could say they've already sold how many million PSEyes are already out in the wild before the controller released

At the same time however it's certainly possible for them to include NAV sales, i'd wager that given they're having to go back and produce more MOVES it's an indication that demand is high so there's no need to artificially inflate numbers just shout "1million sold" now when the consumer demand will get you there before Christmas anyway.

Also, Pacter's initial 300K figure was pure speculated BS... now evident from his recent statements. It pleases me also that my prediction of 4-6 million sold before Dec 2011 looks to be nicely on track

 

[patsu]

Ah yes, I forgot EyePet was already released in EU last year too. The Move patch was released last month I think.

 

[goonergaz]

Ah yes, I forgot EyePet was already released in EU last year too. The Move patch was released last month I think.

oh, and RE:5

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Here's more for our arguments Patsu

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=23918384&postcount=1659

Things like that just strengthen my prediction prior to launch that Move would sell quite well to existing owners but would do very little to expand the PS3 user base.

Granted Sony does still have the rest of the Holiday season to go, and they do have a least a few prime time TV adverts trying to make it attractive to non-core gamers who might not have a PS3, but I still don't see it impacting PS3 user base very much.

But again, from Sony's initial lineup and focus, it's always been apparent that Move was solidly targetted at the core gamer. And as such, Move has been a success thus far. Although I suspect, Sony were also hoping to draw in more new non-PS3 users than they have thus far.

As to Kinect on Amazon, I wouldn't put too much into that. Pre-order stock was limited and from most reports has sold out at most places. So it stands to reason that it'll start falling down the charts as there's less and less units available for pre-order. I still think MS seriously misjudged how attractive Kinect may be if they have only allocated 3 million for the entire Holiday season.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But again, from Sony's initial lineup and focus...

More than that, from their own comments they've admitted as much!

 

[patsu]

Sony is not moving away from the core gamers with Move. They are still after the same "kind" of customers. However Move allows their non-gamer relatives and friends to join them. It also gives their customers more reason to spend money since their style of motion gaming (precision and what not) will be more tailored to these gamers.

If Sony wants to target the casuals aggressively, they probably will adopt a different mechanism/model. May be another PS3 (natural) price drop first, or do it via Google TV, the gaming phone, and SOE.