Sony's Next Generation Portable unveiling - PSP2 in disguise

[wco81]

Even at $250-300, the market for dedicated handheld gaming device with $50 games is shrinking.

A lot of the people who'd buy the NGP would already have a smart phone or tablet or PMP or some combo of those devices.

They really have to want to play those AAA games for the price of entry. OTOH, maybe since they have those other devices, they won't expect much for browsing, media playback and non-gaming apps. from the NGP.

I'd rather put the $300-$350 (before taxes) it would cost for the NGP and Uncharted NGP towards the PS4 and Uncharted for the PS4 myself. Or even $60 for the next PS3 version would provide a better value.

 

[Arwin]

Growing markets for electronic devices means growing room for specialist devices. The NGP may become one, but can still have a huge market. That market may be a fraction of the 500 million+ tablet and smartphone markets, but 50 million is already plenty and can generate as much or even more software revenue for games.

 

[RudeCurve]

The market has changed....I'm sure SONY will be able to sell NGPs and games at launch but the question is can it be sustained. Looking at 3DS suggests that high priced dedicated portable gaming devices aren't very popular and this will get worse as people move toward phones and music players that can also play games.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

1. All the 3ds proves is that your not going to sell hardware if you dont release some decent software. That is the 3ds' real problem.
2. A phone/tablet sucks for real gaming. But we had that discussion about 20 times already.

 

[BRiT]

From the perspective over here, a fundamental problem with 3DS is the price.

If the NGP is competing with the 3DS from a price perspective, it will have the same fundamental issue.

 

[wco81]

If a lot of the people who might have been interested in the 3DS or NGP have already bought a smartphone, is spending 20 Euro a month or more for data, or bought tablets or PMPs in addition, then that extra $300 to start with a 3DS or NGP is a tough sell.

They've spent a couple of hundred already on a mobile device and may be spending a sum on mobile data, not to mention voice and SMS.

In addition, a lot of these people already have a PS3 or 360 hooked up to their HDTVs and have played a lot of the games that the NGP is going to feature as exclusives.

So how compelling will the NGP versions of Uncharted and LBP be to these people? I may not be representative but I've played versions of GoW on the PS2 and PS3, I got iPhone, will eventually get iPad but I never got PSP (bought it at launch and then returned it unopened) so never played the PSP versions of GOW and other PS2/PS3 games.

The NGP is enticing in some respects. Screen and size may be a good fit between my iPhone and iPad. But it would be the third device at best. I could see packing iPhone and iPad for trips but NGP may be left behind. Have a very short commute so I would most likely use NGP at home, where I already have PS3.

Maybe if the NGP had good browsing experience and had a lot of casual and non-gaming apps. that I use throughout the day on the iPhone, I'd carry the NGP along for the bigger screen (unless there's a good 7-inch tablet with a lot of the apps. I use). Then I'd rent or buy games on sale or used games, while reserving the full-priced games for the console.

Not a good NGP customer for Sony (enthusiastic about the NGP, buying lot of new NGP games) and yet, there must be a lot like me who's interested in AAA games yet have already invested in the ecosystems of mobile devices (games as well as non-gaming software).

Sony and Nintendo would like to have customers who buy both their consoles and handhelds and games for both. But the problem is, these customers are already among the buyers of tens of millions of smart phones and tablets sold each year. Maybe they could capture a number of those ready to upgrade their phone or tablet or the truly dedicated who'll buy every gaming product that comes out.

PSP sales were poor at the end. NGP will get a spike at launch but beyond that, the buying trends that worked against the PSP will be even tougher for the NGP.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The market has changed....I'm sure SONY will be able to sell NGPs and games at launch but the question is can it be sustained. Looking at 3DS suggests that high priced dedicated portable gaming devices aren't very popular and this will get worse as people move toward phones and music players that can also play games.

DS and PSP are quite different though. I'm not saying Sony are going to have a a PSP-like success with NGP, but the market is hard to read. If the majority of portable game players only bought GB/DS/PSP because they wanted a time-filler and even simple mobile-type games would have sufficed but there were no alternatives, then now that mobiles do offer games, that market has crumbled. But if the handheld gamers are the sorts who value quality, complex games, like their console games, but in portable form, the phones and tablets won't satisfy them and the market remains strong. There's an argument to be made that PSP's gamers are more this way inclined, hence the purchasing of a more costly device than DS, so it's possible the 50 millionish PSP owners would be interested in upgrading to a better gaming platform where the DS buyers are happy to use touch-controls on their iPods etc.

I don't think anyone knows what's really the case, although clearly PSP's multimedia advantages have been completely eroded. And a lack of HDMI out on NGP gimps it utterly. My friend has a tablet with HDMI out, making it the perfect portable media player for viewing on itself and on household/hotel TVs. Sony aren't helping their chances with the choices they're making.

 

[msia2k75]

I still can't really understand why Sony even bother staying in the portable market... Well at least they shouldnt lose another $5B.

 

[Xenus]

They are bothering to stay in it cause contrary to popular belief the PSP made them money. They aren't just going to abandon a moneymaker without substantial proof that they cannot make money there again.

 

[Entropy]

Growing markets for electronic devices means growing room for specialist devices.

Well - I've used handheld computers for a decade or so, and that product category was certainly killed off by smart phones. (Or became smart phones, depending on how you look at it.) MP3 players have declined. Digital cameras are declining. As far as I can see, any specialist devices competing with phones are fighting an uphill battle, because phones are regarded as a necessity, and if they can do the job...

Not saying that the the NGP will flop, but at the very least, I'd say that your assertion is not universally true.

 

[Laurent06]

PSP sales were poor at the end. NGP will get a spike at launch but beyond that, the buying trends that worked against the PSP will be even tougher for the NGP.

Interestingly the PSP is still often the most sold console in Japan on a weekly basis: week ended February 13, 2011, between May 9th and May 15th

But Japan is probably a very specific market, in particular for Sony

 

[Ailuros]

All the above has little to nothing to do with SONY's hw design choices for the NGP. For a handheld console where SONY probably set the hw specifications in stone a couple of years ago I don't see how they could have done much better without further increasing BOM and in extension final street price. In theory yes the SoC could have been by X% bigger, power consumption by Y% and the user would need a battery backpack to run around with the device. Performance is NEVER for freeand yes the foreseeable future will bring better hw but also for different target markets and under way smaller manufacturing processes.

Sales success or failure is a totally different chapter and especially recently SONY has quite a few bad stars aligned, which are anything but helping their business.

Even at $250-300, the market for dedicated handheld gaming device with $50 games is shrinking.

A lot of the people who'd buy the NGP would already have a smart phone or tablet or PMP or some combo of those devices.

They really have to want to play those AAA games for the price of entry. OTOH, maybe since they have those other devices, they won't expect much for browsing, media playback and non-gaming apps. from the NGP.

I'd rather put the $300-$350 (before taxes) it would cost for the NGP and Uncharted NGP towards the PS4 and Uncharted for the PS4 myself. Or even $60 for the next PS3 version would provide a better value.

Boy how opinions adjust themselves when specific tendencies become way clearer than in the past. I guess that some of us weren't as much fools when making certain predictions in the past after all.

SONY will adjust some of its policies in the longrun for the smart-phone and tablet markets, but as long as the handheld consoles as a breed continue to exist and there's no clear sign that it's definitely dying it's senseless to abandon it at least not now. By the way if the handheld consoles will die out in the less foreseeable future, the next best candidate after that would be the console itself. Might sound absurd today, but the times are a changing.

 

[wco81]

PSP had some unique attributes at the time. It promised console-like graphics and the ability to play media on a screen which was unmatched at the time.

I remember looking at some game-centric PDAs at the time which could also run Palm apps. But in the end, what success the PSP had was due to a handful of game franchises in Japan and the occasional blockbuster games like GOW or GT (finally).

People have other mobile diversions besides $50 games now, on a $300 device which may not run a lot of the content (including apps) already available on their phones.

Oh and if consoles can't sell, then gaming handhelds certainly won't sell.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

MP3 players have declined. Digital cameras are declining. As far as I can see, any specialist devices competing with phones are fighting an uphill battle, because phones are regarded as a necessity, and if they can do the job...

I'm not sure that's entirely true. Where you can consolidate, great. Like music playback - no need for a separate device. But phones can't take pictures like a camera, and never will because of the physical limits of optics and zoom mechanisms. So mobiles may displace cheap snappy cameras, but no-one wanting good pictures is going to rely on their iPod and Galaxy Tab. The camera market may shrink to half its size as half the potential photographers are happy with their mobiles capabilities, but the other half will never give up on cameras. Likewise video cameras. Likewise, by association, gaming platforms. A tablet cannot game like a dual-stick handheld, and so as long as there's a market for these games such a device will sell. The question is how much of a market is there?

 

[Ailuros]

PSP had some unique attributes at the time. It promised console-like graphics and the ability to play media on a screen which was unmatched at the time.

I remember looking at some game-centric PDAs at the time which could also run Palm apps. But in the end, what success the PSP had was due to a handful of game franchises in Japan and the occasional blockbuster games like GOW or GT (finally).

People have other mobile diversions besides $50 games now, on a $300 device which may not run a lot of the content (including apps) already available on their phones.

Oh and if consoles can't sell, then gaming handhelds certainly won't sell.

True. Same goes the other way around though; if there's going to be some sort of convergence in handheld devices something similar might happen in the less foreseeable future to consoles too. All it takes as an example would be a STB device which connects to an application store with =/<10 buck games. Certainly not the same thing as a console, but as I said things might be moving into a completely different direction.

One problem that console vendors like SONY and Microsoft have and Apple's own unique business model hasn't is the latter doesn't sell hardware in the beginning at a loss.

All in all I'm not that worried about SONY since they have the resources to follow pace of any possible changes in the future; the only other black spot at the moment which they have to overcome are their security issues. It certainly doesn't sound easy to me to regain the trust of their customers. In the grander scheme of things SONY already has the Playstation Phone, is actively planning an aggressive tablet strategy and their Android based downloads. All steps in the right direction IMHO.

 

[Entropy]

A tablet cannot game like a dual-stick handheld, and so as long as there's a market for these games such a device will sell. The question is how much of a market is there?

That is indeed the question.
I don't think this is news to either Nintendo or Sony. Iwata spoke publicly about Apple being their prime competitor long ago now, and it was probably discussed much earlier still internally. Both Sony and Nintendo present handhelds that emphasize the gamer niche rather than casuals. Nintendo with 3D, higher power but lower battery life, higher cost - all of which holds little or no appeal for their brain trainers and similar who became attracted to the DS. Sony goes for a higher power, high production cost (and thus likely cost), large size portable that is pretty much impossible to pocket.

And I think that focus makes sense.
While the portable game consoles may loose sales to phones, in the future I could definitely see them taking over the role of stationary consoles. I think quite a few would accept NGP level of graphics as "good enough" if the ability to play the same game on a big screen and on the go was offered. At 14-16nm lithography, I think a majority would prefer versatility over absolute performance, to that extent I believe in the more general stationary => mobile trend, even for niches, as Arwin outlined.

 

[fehu]

Officially named PS Vita that means "life" :|
looks more like the name of a line of tv

 

[Aeoniss]

This downgrade... Seems to be extremely skimpy on memory.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Just as a side note regarding memory, Dungeon Defenders for Android requires 256MB of "free RAM", meaning it won't boot if there isn't at least 384MB.

Even though this might not mean much on the short term, it certainly means future "high-end" handheld games will rely on a relatively large memory amount (>=512MB).

 

[Arun]

Well, I suppose we should all be thankful to Simon F for developing a good 2-bit texture compression format at least! Also TBDR means MSAA won't take more memory. Probably the most interesting factor to consider is the performance penalty if/when the binning process runs out of space since it takes a *variable* amount of memory.