I don't know, but I think it's probably safe to assume that MS is back ahead, at least for a while.
Sony's content platform and business strategy *spawn
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I don't know, but I think it's probably safe to assume that MS is back ahead, at least for a while.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Sony will report on 7th of February, Hopefully they'll state the PS3 sales, but I'm not counting on it.
Prophecy2k
Veteran
As Shifty said, they're no longer producing PS2s. So I can't see why they would want to hide away their sales numbers when it's clear that they'll be close to if not already ahead of MS in LTD console sales.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
The sales period of this upcoming report covers Oct-Dec 2012, so they still produced and sold PS2s during that time, if they just report "Playstation shipments" there is no way for us to know the exact ratio of PS3 and PS2s.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Well it could be somewhere around 5-700k, not entirely insignificant in the context.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
The only reason is if sales of PS3 were disappointing and they don't want to risk releasing numbers for fear of their stock prices taking a hit.
If sales for PS3 were good enough to overtake X360, then there is no doubt the numbers for PS3 will be released either in a financial statement or in a conference call or in a PR marketing piece.
Basically if no numbers are announced for PS3, then it's safe to assume that X360 still has the lead.
Regards,
SB
In the context it's half a percent of user base. They sold 8 million more consoles in the same period regardless of whether you fancy "launch aligned" or "calendar aligned", but somehow half a percent is "significant". Just do the math if it makes you feel better. Look at the PS2 sales trend, it's been dropping 50% to 60% year over year, then estimate based on that. you'll get about 400k. Deduce that number from the total. I still don't think they'll get more than 75.9 (excuse me, I mean 76.3) But that's the bar to quality the IDC statement, which was rounded to the million, because they seem to understand what the difference is between significant and insignificant.
When you're comparing 2 numbers, any difference in the actual amounts is significant.
We're interested in: Sold PS3 > Sold XB360
We're not interested in: Sold PS3 + Sold PS2 > Sold XB360
It's a very simple concept.
To argue otherwise is disingenuous.
We're interested in: Sold PS3 > Sold XB360
We're not interested in: Sold PS3 + Sold PS2 > Sold XB360
It's a very simple concept.
To argue otherwise is disingenuous.
What we should be interested in is "Sony content platform and business strategy" I think we're disingenuously way off
I didn't mean to suggest we don't subtract the PS2 sales, but we can't just say "we don't know" as if it could be a 2 million shift either way. You'll have your "winner" if the difference is more than the margin of error. But considering the IDC is almost 2 million above what I'm expecting, and were within 100k for Microsoft, if IDC ends up right for the PS3 it won't have anything to do with the PS2. It's a crazy 2 million boost. What would be a good margin of error introduced by having to estimate PS2 sales based on previous years drop? Does +/- 100k sounds fair?
You bring an interesting point about PS3+PS2 versus 360+Xbox
I guess it means I'm interested in the thing you're not interested in.
It exposes the fact that Sony's business strategy has been to continue to sell their previous platform in parallel. Selling PS1,PS2,PS3 for at least 10 years on a 6-7 years cycle, and they made it clear repeatedly that it was a strong commitment to continue to do that. OTOH, Microsoft stopped everything, no more hardware, no more games, as soon as a new console came out. So do you think Sony should stop selling the PS3 in November? Is that business strategy a bad one? What do you think MS will do with the 360? Same thing as last gen or more like Sony this time? How much will that affect the landscape? What will happen to consumer's value proposition, will they think a console that will last a long time is worth paying more?
I'm interested about whether Sony's strategy of overlapping their platforms would allows them to have a more expensive console at launch, if they can convince the public that the PS3 will continue to have games and is still a good buy for a lower cost, parallel ecosystem. They did that kind of transition twice already and it seem to have worked. Will it work again? What about studios and their investment into a platform?
If they sell a separate BC module for PS4. which would be basically a complete PS3 with a separate PS3 account and all, do you think it counts in the sales of PS3? Yes or No?
I don't care about the answer, I care about how could you possibly give an answer like this? Someone will strongly disagree with you. That's why there should be "versus" threads, where semantics are being argued, away from business discussions.
I don't care about the answer, I care about how could you possibly give an answer like this? Someone will strongly disagree with you. That's why there should be "versus" threads, where semantics are being argued, away from business discussions.
The only reason MS stopped selling the original XBOX is because it was losing them money and was going to continue to lose them money for as long as they continued to sell it. Both Sony and MS are almost certain to continue selling their current consoles for as long as it makes financial sense to do so.
As for whether having these older consoles available would allow the next gen consoles to be priced higher, I think the PS3's performance at it's original price point should make it very clear that that would be a very bad idea,.
It wont happen in this quarter.
The true forum meltdown will be when someone passes Wii in ~2016. PS3 will be big problem for Wii U too as a lower priced console that is easily on par. Sony will push it even deeper to 3rd world countries. It will outsell Wii/WiiU combined for the forseeable future
This seems crazy.. the PS2 might be outselling the Wii? Wii isnt really even future proof for 3rd world countries and Sony distribution >nintendo
The true forum meltdown will be when someone passes Wii in ~2016. PS3 will be big problem for Wii U too as a lower priced console that is easily on par. Sony will push it even deeper to 3rd world countries. It will outsell Wii/WiiU combined for the forseeable future
Console sales 2012 said:
This seems crazy.. the PS2 might be outselling the Wii? Wii isnt really even future proof for 3rd world countries and Sony distribution >nintendo
But are they going to shift development to the PS4/720 or continue to waste first party resources for the PS360?
Is that a good move or a bad move either way?
DuckThor Evil
Legend
In the context it's half a percent of user base. They sold 8 million more consoles in the same period regardless of whether you fancy "launch aligned" or "calendar aligned", but somehow half a percent is "significant". Just do the math if it makes you feel better. Look at the PS2 sales trend, it's been dropping 50% to 60% year over year, then estimate based on that. you'll get about 400k. Deduce that number from the total. I still don't think they'll get more than 75.9 (excuse me, I mean 76.3) But that's the bar to quality the IDC statement, which was rounded to the million, because they seem to understand what the difference is between significant and insignificant.
Math is pretty much all i've been doing in this thread since I saw the 77M figure by IDC... So your prediction is 75.9M or 76.3M and that's almost two million less than 77M, perhaps you should take your own advice before rolling your eyes. You can do that before or after you pay attention to what was being discussed.
What are the requirements for "IDC end up right for the PS3"? How do we know they got it right if Sony doesn't give their PS3 number. We have two solid figures for the PS3: 63.9M at the end of March 2012 and 70M at mid quarter November 4th. You either have to guestimate three quarters of PS2 sales and subtract them from the total Playstation shipments of the year 2012 (first Q was 600k for PS2) or questimate PS3s time based SHIPMENT division during Oct-December.
In 2011 PS2 shipped 900k in December. Subtracting 800k-1M or any guess from from the 2012 December total Playstation figure and then what? to what previous figure would you add that sum to get PS3 LTD? 70M was a mid quarter figure, so you can't add it there or you'r counting double sales. Guestimating three quarters of PS2 also introduces a chance for significant error. If PS2 didn't sold a single unit during the last 9 months of 2012, 5.7M total Playstation shipments in Q4 would be enough for the PS3 to tie the 360 at 75.9M, add the PS2 sales from Q2-Q4 to that 5.7M figure and you know what Sony must have shipped in Q4 (PS3+PS2) to have a tie (Q1 2012 for PS2 was 600k and Q4 2011 was 900k). if one prefers any sort of accuracy worth a damn, coming up with a correct answer to either of those scenarios by just guessing is pretty hard.
Your +/-100k in general is not fair for the PS3, the drop per quarter has most likely been way bigger than that, at least if averaged on the last three quarters. Your model is basically only valid to find the lowest possible number for PS3, we don't want that, we want the real number. The final quarter of the year however could imo be somewhat of a unknown for the PS2, it could have an anomaly due to them stopping producing it, creating an order now or order never type of situation.
PS3 needed to have a great quarter to tie the 360, one million in front should't be possible, I just hope we get the real number.
Exactly and thank you.
It was the wrong emoticon, I though I clicked on "shocked" because I disagreed with your 5-700k estimate.
Never mind. I agree with whatever your estimate is. What are we arguing about?
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DuckThor Evil
Legend
Ok I admit some of your previous posts weren't on my mind when I typed my response. ( I saw the deleted post) so perhaps my first paragraph was unnecessary. I just want accurate numbers. I don't care about the amounts or who's winning, except if it's Charlie Sheen
You may still see some continued investment in development for the current gen, but that development will have a markedly different focus than development for next-gen. Any future development for current gen will be profit-focused. They'll spend money to make money. Investment in 1st and 2nd party development for the new consoles, OTOH, will be focused on attracting enthusiast gamers in order grow the user-base of the new devices. Until the user-bases of the new consoles are large enough to inherently create a viable market for AAA development the platform holders are going to have to dedicate financial resources to support it.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
I wouldn't be surprised if Casual and XBLA/PSN titles were still developed for the X360 and PS3.
Install base is going to be far larger on those machines and casual users are going to potentially be the least likely to move to a new console in its first year. Although depending on how living room focused the next Xbox is, that could potentially prove irresistable to the casual crowd.
Which then opens up interesting possibilities. Even if the casual "fad" doesn't last as long as say the Wii did. If it allowed the next Xbox to build a huge lead over the PS4 in the first 1-2 years, it could lead to AAA devs targetting the next Xbox as the lead platform which could lead to all games being limited to what the Xbox can do. The Wii could never pull off that transition because the core gamer pretty much ignored the platform due to the graphics and controls. In theory the Xbox will be close enough in graphics rendering to the PS4 that graphics won't be an issue and controls shouldn't change significantly combined with its reputation for servicing the core crowd, it'd have a greater chance of successfully parlaying a large install base into a primary developement target for core AAA games.
Regards,
SB
Install base is going to be far larger on those machines and casual users are going to potentially be the least likely to move to a new console in its first year. Although depending on how living room focused the next Xbox is, that could potentially prove irresistable to the casual crowd.
Which then opens up interesting possibilities. Even if the casual "fad" doesn't last as long as say the Wii did. If it allowed the next Xbox to build a huge lead over the PS4 in the first 1-2 years, it could lead to AAA devs targetting the next Xbox as the lead platform which could lead to all games being limited to what the Xbox can do. The Wii could never pull off that transition because the core gamer pretty much ignored the platform due to the graphics and controls. In theory the Xbox will be close enough in graphics rendering to the PS4 that graphics won't be an issue and controls shouldn't change significantly combined with its reputation for servicing the core crowd, it'd have a greater chance of successfully parlaying a large install base into a primary developement target for core AAA games.
Regards,
SB
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