Unscientifically, I would think they are similar.
No. (see what I did there?)
Okay, the minimum gtx970 is 3.4TFlops,
That's only at it's base clock and even then it's 3.5 TFLOPs. At the more realistic boost clock it' 3.9 TFLOPs and not comparable to AMD in that way anyway given that the 970 is competitive in real world performance to AMD's 5.6 TFLOP 290x. (and generally trying to compare GPU's on TFLOPs alone is stupid).
but does the old rule of thumb (carmack?) still applies that consoles optimizations, lower level API, and fixed hardware provide some 2x advantage for the same hardware?
No it does not and as far as I can tell, with specific reference to GPU's it never has. CPU's especially with DX9 which was in ascendance when Carmack made that comment may require 2x the performance for similar results and 2x system memory seems to be roughly in the right ball park but you certainly do not need 2x the GPU power to match console results. And thanks to Digital Foundries face off's that is now provable as opposed to just anecdotal.
Digital Foundry have shown time and again that the 750Ti is about equivalent in real world performance to the PS4 in the latest games (see the recent Witcher 3 face off for one of many examples) and the 970 is around 2.5x faster than the 750Ti in real world testing:
http://www.bit-tech.net/hardware/graphics/2014/09/19/nvidia-geforce-gtx-970-review/6
Even today, games on an "equivalent" 1.84TF GPU on PC can't exactly push graphics like Driveclub, 1886, or Uncharted 4, with the same frame rate stability,
Digital Foundry say otherwise and post comparison pictures and frame rate/time graphs to prove it. That is of course assuming you accept the best looking cross platform games are graphically comparable to those you list above, which I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that you do not.
and this is only the early games in the generation.
The PS4 is over a year and a half old now and Uncharted 4 isn't due out for another 9 months or so. It can hardly be considered one of this generations "early games".
PC is more prone to micro-stuttering (I never understood why
That's probably because it's not "more prone to micro-stuttering". Not fundamentally anyway. There's certainly more scope for performance issues to arise on the PC because the games graphics settings and framerate are left to the user to configure, but dual GPU issues aside, it's usually possible to get a smoother frame rate on the PC than on consoles provided you have a fast enough system and manage settings/frame rate limiting properly. Here's an excellent example of that:
http://www.pcgamer.com/durantes-witcher-3-analysis-the-alchemy-of-smoothness/
A 2x bigger GPU required sounds reasonable.
Nope, it's complete rubbish. That's why the Sony headset is planned to run at a lower resolution and framerate than the PC headset when powered by a GTX 970. Because a GTX 970 is a lot more powerful. Who'd have guessed?