Sony Posts its numbers

[Rolf N]

Ranger's argument was that he doesn't believe Sony could hold a strength in Europe, and not evidence to the contrary. "Eyeballing" a graph with many data points, when a much clearer bar graph with just one data point per system and year is available, is also not a very effective way to come up with data fit for a debate. But I digress.

One thing that could have bent the PS3 curve this year was the reported stock issues through CQ1, and a bit into CQ2. The channel was drier than would be optimal in certain territories. Filling it back up is not "stuffing".

Another thing to keep in mind is that shipments carry a preparational component. A portion of CQ3 shipments goes to prepare for heightened sales levels in CQ4. The channel wants higher stock levels at that particular point in the year -- equally for all product. It will be depleted/back to normal in CQ1 2011 at the latest. If you compare CQ3 sellthrough to CQ3 shipments, you should not expect a match -- again: not for any product.

When Sony announced the 13M shipment target for the past FY, they were met with the same naysayers saying nay, and yet they made that target easily. Considering that those 13M units included two full quarters before the PS3slim, at 399€ MSRP no less, how could they not achieve such a modest increase?

edit: and while I was hunting for that chart in Nintendo's presentation, I found another nice tidbit in regard to Sony's "alleged" strength in Europe:
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/events/101029/img/22l.jpg

Those are software unit sales. There is a high chance of correlation with hardware install base=ongoing hardware performance over the past few years. Since Nintendo doesn't disclose CQ4 hardware sales, this is the closest we can get to completing the European install base puzzle. Sony did just fine. This is not even a recent turn of events.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Ranger's argument was that he doesn't believe Sony could hold a strength in Europe, and not evidence to the contrary. "Eyeballing" a graph with many data points, when a much clearer bar graph with just one data point per system and year is available, is also not a very effective way to come up with data fit for a debate. But I digress.

I really don't have much to add to this discussion at this point, but looking at that graph, it looks like green is almost as big as red in 2010, and that green is the only one showing growth.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony Europe sells in a lot more countries than that in the EU, plus I believe they are responsible for Australia and the Middle East as well. We also know Sony sells PS3s in East Asia and South America, Russia, I'm sure, for which we have no tracking data, and as we all know, even NPD's numbers are incomplete and estimate figures for retailers they don't have an agreement with.

If they were as big as the US market, we'd know about them! eg. Australia+NZ hit 1 million XB360s in April this year, versus 4 million for the UK and some 20 million in NA, and the antipodies are large enough to get a press release telling us this. It's improbable that these less-well-documented markets are worth >1 million units in a quarter.

Ranger's argument was that he doesn't believe Sony could hold a strength in Europe, and not evidence to the contrary.

He presented the numbers of NPD+Japan sales compared to reported sales (shipped) numbers.

PS3 1072k : 3500k

This would require two and half times as many PS3 sold in the rest of the world as in NA+Japan, which isn't likely. Indeed:

edit: and while I was hunting for that chart in Nintendo's presentation, I found another nice tidbit in regard to Sony's "alleged" strength in Europe:
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/events/101029/img/22l.jpg

Those are software unit sales. There is a high chance of correlation with hardware install base=ongoing hardware performance over the past few years.

If we accept as you suggest these software sales are proportional to hardware, we can see that PS3 doesn't outsell XB360 2:1 in Europe, hence Ranger's suspicion. But as many of us including yourself have pointed out, filling up the channels is part of the sales, and no different to the other companies' results.

Thus the conclusion here, for me anyway, is that Rangers posed a valid question, looked at the numbers, and didn't properly factor in restocking. Others responded to point out the limitations of his analysis. There's a logical argument to be had, and no need to tell someone not to bother. Hopefully Rangers sees how the figures fit with distribution and his figure comparisons aren't really an accurate basis for his theory. He may still feel that Sony are untruthful, and that's his prerogative, but he'll need to find some decent arguments to convince the rest of us as such!

 

[patsu]

They have provided data to back up their concerns in the form of retail sales data from NPD for NA/US and Japan. Which would imply that PS3 must be selling greater than 2:1 versus X360 in Europe and other territories.

Nintendo's sales charts for the EU seems to indicate that PS3 is relatively equal to X360 this past quarter. So where are all these other PS3's going to?

One obvious answer would be possibly stuffing the channel in anticipation for higher volumes following the introduction of the Move controller. Either because Sony anticipated higher sales or retailers anticipated higher sales. I'm not sure that could account for all units, but it's always a possibility. The difficulty of getting reliable retail sales numbers from most of the EU makes this a guessing game at best.

If that's the definition of stuffing the channel, then all 3 vendors "stuff" the channels because holiday sales are much higher. It'd be silly to stock out for a workhorse part during this season.

Note - I'm not saying Sony has fudged any numbers. But people shouldn't just dismiss potential oddities just because the company in question says it's OK.

IMO, MS numbers tend to be fairly representative just due to the fact that they are constantly under the microscope with everyone and anyone waiting for the chance to slap a lawsuit on them. But even with that, it doesn't mean they can't make a mistake.

Sony may have more elaborate channel to hold more inventory. A lot of consumer electronics outlets globally are not tracked too (These are typically small, and would carry Sony SKUs because the latter has a lot more things for them to sell). The install base are so large that I think all 3 vendors can survive and grow as long as they execute well. Comparing gaming hardware units alone don't represent the full picture anyway.

For Sony as a whole, the standalone Blu-ray player sales is important too (24 million units by end of this year). Piracy is still a critical factor to watch out. Kinect and Move's positioning will play out differently for each vendor. Mobile, social gaming and pads continue to grow. There are still plenty of opportunities for all 3 vendors to target the casuals moving forward.

 

[Lucid_Dreamer]

If they were as big as the US market, we'd know about them! eg. Australia+NZ hit 1 million XB360s in April this year, versus 4 million for the UK and some 20 million in NA, and the antipodies are large enough to get a press release telling us this. It's improbable that these less-well-documented markets are worth >1 million units in a quarter.

He presented the numbers of NPD+Japan sales compared to reported sales (shipped) numbers.

PS3 1072k : 3500k

This would require two and half times as many PS3 sold in the rest of the world as in NA+Japan, which isn't likely. Indeed:

If we accept as you suggest these software sales are proportional to hardware, we can see that PS3 doesn't outsell XB360 2:1 in Europe, hence Ranger's suspicion. But as many of us including yourself have pointed out, filling up the channels is part of the sales, and no different to the other companies' results.

Thus the conclusion here, for me anyway, is that Rangers posed a valid question, looked at the numbers, and didn't properly factor in restocking. Others responded to point out the limitations of his analysis. There's a logical argument to be had, and no need to tell someone not to bother. Hopefully Rangers sees how the figures fit with distribution and his figure comparisons aren't really an accurate basis for his theory. He may still feel that Sony are untruthful, and that's his prerogative, but he'll need to find some decent arguments to convince the rest of us as such!

The first of the flaws in his suspicion is that it's assuming that MS numbers are correct. As far as we know, it could be 2:1 in Europe (in favor of PS3). Not to mention the difference in how Europe (PAL) is counted between the two organizations could be a factor. Well, time will tell the tale.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The first of the flaws in his suspicion is that it's assuming that MS numbers are correct.

The bolded posit was based on Rolf N's reference to GfK's figures reported by Nintendo. Unless you believe GfK are reporting wrong software numbers for any platform, the data can be considered valid for comparisons.

 

[jeff_rigby]

I'm interested in how forecasts on future sales are made. They require knowledge of competitors plans and value added features Sony might be adding to the PS3 to affect future sales.

Unit's shipped is a factor of production, units sold of market demand which is consumer generated from perceived value.

Might we determine from Sony's #'s that something big is coming, or that Move games and cheaper 3-D TVs next year are going to impact the # of 3-D ready PS3s sold. Could Sony knowing that something like Google TV in the PS3 could generate increased sales in the US 1st quarter 2011 and greater sales in EU as Google pushes Google TV in the EU late 2011.

Sales charts that project sales not realistic considering Move games and cheaper 3-D TVs might indicate Google TV coming. Sony stock price increases might indicate inside information or guesses on this also.

 

[Lucid_Dreamer]

The bolded posit was based on Rolf N's reference to GfK's figures reported by Nintendo. Unless you believe GfK are reporting wrong software numbers for any platform, the data can be considered valid for comparisons.

Your explanation is for the wrong part of the equation. I wasn't talking about the GfK figures. BTW, does that GfK report cover the entire PAL region?

 

[Rotmm]

Sony stock price increases might indicate inside information or guesses on this also.

I think the stock price increases are more to do with the rumour of Apple interest.

{Edit: And, of course, the recent news that MGM have a potential buyer]

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Your explanation is for the wrong part of the equation.

But the bit you bolded was only valid for that part fo the discussion! It was a sentence for Rolf N in resopnse to Rolf N's post. You can't then take it as an explanation of another part fo the thread!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Unit's shipped is a factor of production...

Not if shipped means shipped to retailers, meaning they have been bought by retailers which is the end of the chain for Sony, and selling on to consumers is then the retailers' concern.

 

[Toaddio]

But the bit you bolded was only valid for that part fo the discussion! It was a sentence for Rolf N in resopnse to Rolf N's post. You can't then take it as an explanation of another part fo the thread!

This is irrelevant because the entire basis of the "argument" that Sony is fudging its numbers relies on the belief that Microsoft isn't fudging their numbers. If one company is doing it the other would be too.

If Microsoft is lying about their numbers it would be more than feasible to say that Sony's numbers are 100% accurate. I think we should turn this discussion around.

Sony's numbers are obviously 100% accurate so Microsoft must be lying about how many consoles they've sold. They're a filthy, lying corporation that must be stopped. We should all burn our Xboxes and Zunes and give praise to PaRappa the Rappa.

 

[AzBat]

The only problem with that line of thought is Microsoft's numbers don't look out of line or raise any red flags.

Personally I don't think Sony's numbers are wrong. Just that they may be slightly wishful thinking. We won't know either way for another 3 months.

BTW, here's another thought. What if they're betting on some overflow holiday sales when Microsoft won't be able to meet demand after they sell all of their forecasted 3 million Kinect sensors?

Tommy McClain

 

[Toaddio]

The only problem with that line of thought is Microsoft's numbers don't look out of line or raise any red flags.

Personally I don't think Sony's numbers are wrong. Just that they may be slightly wishful thinking. We won't know either way for another 3 months.

BTW, here's another thought. What if they're betting on some overflow holiday sales when Microsoft won't be able to meet demand after they sell all of their forecasted 3 million Kinect sensors?

Tommy McClain

Chop! Chop! Master Onion!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eZcV1UuUzI

 

[corduroygt]

If they were as big as the US market, we'd know about them! eg. Australia+NZ hit 1 million XB360s in April this year, versus 4 million for the UK and some 20 million in NA, and the antipodies are large enough to get a press release telling us this. It's improbable that these less-well-documented markets are worth >1 million units in a quarter.

First of all, the only countries I saw the Nintendo breakdown were Germany, Spain, France, and UK. Didn't really see anything about any other countries there, so we don't know if those sales are included.

Second, even if we assume all of Europe is included, console sales in the following countries may easily add up to millions, even if a single one doesn't have that many sales:

South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Brazil, Panama, Argentina, South Africa, Peru, Chile, Costa Rica, Bolivia, Yemen, etc. Since Sony sells TV's and other electronics in these countries (and many more), it's easier for them to distribute in these areas compared to MS and Nintendo.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Yeah, the more I thought about that Nintendo chart, the more I think it is literally not accounting for a sizable chunk of Europe, so you can add Italy, Ireland, Belgium, all of Scandanavia, Portugul, Austria, Poland, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, etc, to that list. The tracking numbers available are just so far from comprehensive! But it's not hard to see how all that, plus an inventory increase ahead of the holidays could account for Sony's figure.

 

[jeff_rigby]

Not if shipped means shipped to retailers, meaning they have been bought by retailers which is the end of the chain for Sony, and selling on to consumers is then the retailers' concern.

I thought big retailers have buy back options to reduce their risk which guarantees they will have enough stock on hand to meet variable demand. Once you get large enough as a retailer your value increases and you can demand and get concessions.

Another poster commented on Asian and EU markets. Clearly a PS3 with a Chrome 7 browser would be a phenomenal value and should generate larger sales. A reduction in 3-D TV prices should have an impact on PS3 sales and Move should also generate sales. Might all these explain the Sony #s rather than assuming that Sony is fudging the numbers.

 

[eastmen]

First of all, the only countries I saw the Nintendo breakdown were Germany, Spain, France, and UK. Didn't really see anything about any other countries there, so we don't know if those sales are included.

Second, even if we assume all of Europe is included, console sales in the following countries may easily add up to millions, even if a single one doesn't have that many sales:

South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Brazil, Panama, Argentina, South Africa, Peru, Chile, Costa Rica, Bolivia, Yemen, etc. Since Sony sells TV's and other electronics in these countries (and many more), it's easier for them to distribute in these areas compared to MS and Nintendo.

they would need to sell better than 2:1 over microsoft though. Remember MS is still selling in those countrys too.

Personaly I think we are going to see some tall tales from all 3 companys. I just find sony's suspect right now because from the numbers we get they don't make sense

 

[jonabbey]

Clearly a PS3 with a Chrome 7 browser would be a phenomenal value and should generate larger sales. ... Might all these explain the Sony #s rather than assuming that Sony is fudging the numbers.

This is all an elaborate hoax, isn't it jeff_rigby?

 

[corduroygt]

they would need to sell better than 2:1 over microsoft though. Remember MS is still selling in those countrys too.

Actually, there are plenty of countries listed there that the xbox isn't sold officially, so you'd get a gray market unit with no warranty. Sony already has the distributor chain set up for their TV's and CE devices, so they're much better prepared.

Also, Playstation is way stronger than the xbox brand outside of US and UK, and I have no doubt it'd sell much better, especially in the asian countries.