upnorthsox
Veteran
Or they can do as MS does and claim them as "Unaudited", thus why they now say that Q1 2010 for EDD operating income is $260 mil instead of the $312 mil they reported in Oct. 09.
Sony Posts its numbers
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Or they can do as MS does and claim them as "Unaudited", thus why they now say that Q1 2010 for EDD operating income is $260 mil instead of the $312 mil they reported in Oct. 09.
Overshipping is not a "lie "per self
Right!
Microsoft also stuffed the channel back in 2006 to get to the "10 million 360s sold in a year"-mark. If there's any truth to it, it will show up next quarter.
Cheers
So my questions would be:
How many (shipped) units less would Sony have to be reporting in order for their numbers to be more in line with the other 2 WRT the shipped/sold ratio?
How much of this number could reasonably be attributed to factors other than Sony manipulating their numbers? Factors such as populating the channel with Move bundles. Has Sony launched the PS3 in the last fiscal year in any of the "Other" territories? If so, fully populating even a small retail channel could have skewed the shipped/sold ratio somewhat.
How many (shipped) units less would Sony have to be reporting in order for their numbers to be more in line with the other 2 WRT the shipped/sold ratio?
How much of this number could reasonably be attributed to factors other than Sony manipulating their numbers? Factors such as populating the channel with Move bundles. Has Sony launched the PS3 in the last fiscal year in any of the "Other" territories? If so, fully populating even a small retail channel could have skewed the shipped/sold ratio somewhat.
Which is why shipped numbers are a poor substitute for actual retail sales. :/ Anyone want to discuss last year's FY numbers? Now that we have this year's we have the necessary context to talk about what was happening a year ago!
corduroygt
Banned
We'll see if they overshipped when the next quarterly reports are released. It'll show just like it showed with the Xbox in 2006 CY 4Q vs. 2007 CY 1Q.
corduroygt
Banned
According to Nintendo's sales numbers, Move seems to have helped the PS3 a lot in "Europe", whatever that consists of in this context:
upnorthsox
Veteran
Well last yr they shipped 3.2 mil in the qtr, this yr it's 3.5 mil. They were also still making for low PS3 stocks from Q1 and part of Q2 this yr.
According to Nintendo's sales numbers, Move seems to have helped the PS3 a lot in "Europe", whatever that consists of in this context:
And that graph clearly shows theyre not anywhere close to the weekly Europe hardware lead on 360 to ship 700k more despite being 270k behind in (Japan+USA).
It looks like most of the weeks this year, from perhaps week 3 to week 27, they were a steady 10-15k/week ahead of 360 (just by eyeballing the graph). Which is 60k/month at the high end.
And then the fact the 360's slim bump happened during the quarter as well, something I just noticed, making it just more implausible. July-Sep would have something like week 27-40. Something around there. Figuring end June=6 months=26 weeks.
Move clearly does seem to have bumped hardware. Would like to see how Kinect affects 360 hardware in upcoming weeks. Guess we have to wait another three months for that chart from Nintendo.
But I found this possible explanation:
Code:
Xbox360 PS3
Q3 2008 2,2 2,4
Q4 2008 6 +172,73% 4,5 +87,50%
Q3 2009 2,1 3,2
Q4 2009 5,2 +147,62% 6,5 +103,13%
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corduroygt
Banned
Almost half the people in the world are in 2 countries, China and India, and their economy has been improving a lot better than the first-world countries. Maybe now they have a significant number of wealthy and middle-class people, who overwhelmingly prefer PS3 over 360. I really don't know. It's either that or Sony overshipped.
I'm going to say that sony over shipped. The question is how much and if it will affect thier holiday numbers or if they will over ship again.
3 months from now, you will see that they weren't overshipping in Q2
I don't know of a single person that would be upset that the PS3 is selling well but if you keep saying it then maybe it will come to fruition. Maybe you could, I don't know, add some analysis to these numbers be it refutation, explanation, or confirmation besides ":smile:"
Most of us questioned MSFTs magical "10M" as well. It isn't inherently BAD to "overship" in the quarter prior to the holiday months since I have to ship something before it can be sold-through. Shipped numbers always suck because you never know when or IF they will be sold (see: XBOX and PSPgo in Japan)
corduroygt
Banned
Maybe they overshipped due to their survey results saying that a ton of people were waiting for GT5 to buy a PS3, and all those overshipped PS3's will indeed get sold when (if) GT5 comes out in the holiday season.
In either case, they can't keep overshipping, and we'll see that in the following quarterly reports.
The only time it looked like a loser was when it did sub-100k numbers in NPD and that was only, what once? twice?
They can continue to overship. it really depends on how much they are overshipping. Is it af ew hundred thousand. A million ? The lower the overship the easier it is to fudge and even out later on. I also suspect that we will only ever get shipped numbers from sony from now on.
As for GT5 . I don't know how many people who want GT5 haven't bought a ps3 already.... isn't that how the line goes ?
Anyway we are now very far into the life span of these consoles.I doubt any single game will move enough new systems to change anything for teh companys. No new halo will , no new GT will ...
corduroygt
Banned
Every manufacturer reports "shipped" numbers. "Shipped" in this case means actually sold to retailers. So no, they cannot continue to overship, retailers will not buy any more.
A few hundred thousand would be irrelevant to the conversation, which is trying to identify how many PS3's have been sold to people, cmpared to how much stock has been released and is sitting in warehouses. If it's a few hundred thousand, who cares? If it's 4 or 5 million, then the numbers are inaccurate and paint a false picture.
You can also only overship what retailers are willing to stock. Once those channels are full and they don't want any more, there's nowhere else to go. The only way to inflate numbers then is dumping stock or flat out lying. If Sony have overshipped figure-changing amounts (millions) then at some point they'll reach saturation and will have to cut back which will be reflected in later figures. If they still have lots of room to overship more product, then retailers aren't hording stock and the current figures must be fairly close to actual sold amounts.
corduroygt
Banned
For Sony, Asia Pacific is just as big a market as US and EU, and other areas are about half that. Now this includes all Sony products, they don't break it down by division, but it's safe to assume that PS3 presence in those regions would be far stronger than Xbox or the Wii.
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