Sony Posts its numbers

[patsu]

Without understanding their worldwide channel structure, it's hard to conclude Sony overshipped. Afterall, Sony has a much more elaborate hardware distribution channel than Microsoft. They are a consumer electronics company.

There is also no point in overshipping because Sony is looking for real $$$. Overshipping is a huge risk, especially right now.

If they can continue to "overship", then it means the consumers are buying them up. Otherwise, the distis will return the goods in large quantity when they stock balance. They are a public company. Their auditors will cry foul. Under SOX regulations, the CEO and CFO in that organization may/will go to jail if proven that they manipulate numbers.

 

[goonergaz]

You can also only overship what retailers are willing to stock. Once those channels are full and they don't want any more, there's nowhere else to go.

Indeed, to suggest Sony can just keep overshipping is (frankly) rediculous.

I know VGChartz is a swear-word around here, but since Move has come out WW sales have increased around 70k p/w! I do think some of this so-called over-shipment is down to pre-xmas stock and Move bundles...

 

[eastmen]

A few hundred thousand would be irrelevant to the conversation, which is trying to identify how many PS3's have been sold to people, cmpared to how much stock has been released and is sitting in warehouses. If it's a few hundred thousand, who cares? If it's 4 or 5 million, then the numbers are inaccurate and paint a false picture.

You can also only overship what retailers are willing to stock. Once those channels are full and they don't want any more, there's nowhere else to go. The only way to inflate numbers then is dumping stock or flat out lying. If Sony have overshipped figure-changing amounts (millions) then at some point they'll reach saturation and will have to cut back which will be reflected in later figures. If they still have lots of room to overship more product, then retailers aren't hording stock and the current figures must be fairly close to actual sold amounts.

You assume that these items are being shiped to stores.

I know bestbuy has distrubution centers in which the product is first sent to and then its sent to individual stores from there. Every region has one .

It also isn't un heard of that upon arriving in a country a company like sony first sends product to their own warehouses before distrubition to retail chains.

So the question is , does sony count ps3's as shipped once they leave the factory , when they hit sony distrubition centers. When they leave those centers , when they hit retail's distrubition centers or when they hit retail shelves. I think we can agree that all those numbers would be diffrent

This goes for all 3 companys btw , not just sony

 

[-tkf-]

They can continue to overship. it really depends on how much they are overshipping. Is it af ew hundred thousand. A million ? The lower the overship the easier it is to fudge and even out later on. I also suspect that we will only ever get shipped numbers from sony from now on.
As for GT5 . I don't know how many people who want GT5 haven't bought a ps3 already.... isn't that how the line goes ?

Anyway we are now very far into the life span of these consoles.I doubt any single game will move enough new systems to change anything for teh companys. No new halo will , no new GT will ...

The point now is primarily to keep the momentum up for the PS3 and if possible maybe speed it up. GT5 is one of the important parts of that puzzle. Just like the other exclusive games are.

All the extras like vidzone, home, picture gallery, 3D movie support and whatever else Sony keeps coming up with also adds to the momentum.

If the fight is long enough Sony might end up on top (and then be ready to fail from the start when a new one starts )

 

[corduroygt]

So the question is , does sony count ps3's as shipped once they leave the factory , when they hit sony distrubition centers.

They did that at PS3 launch. Investors cried foul and and they've changed it to "sold to retail stores". So Sony got paid for all those PS3's they shipped, and they're not in Sony warehouses, they're in Best Buy/Walmart warehouses.

All 3 console makers report the same way.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You assume that these items are being shiped to stores.

No, it doesn't matter where they are. They have been bought by retailers, who won't buy any more beyond what they are willing to have in stock (or on order), whether those PS3's paid for are in GameStop's warehouse, Sony's, on a ship, or wherever.

 

[eastmen]

The point now is primarily to keep the momentum up for the PS3 and if possible maybe speed it up. GT5 is one of the important parts of that puzzle. Just like the other exclusive games are.

All the extras like vidzone, home, picture gallery, 3D movie support and whatever else Sony keeps coming up with also adds to the momentum.

If the fight is long enough Sony might end up on top (and then be ready to fail from the start when a new one starts )

I don't see a way for sony to top the wii now unless they continue to sell the ps3 till 2020. They might top the xbox 360 and most likely will unless kinect makes the 360 a runaway hit in europe. However the xbox only did 24m sales and the 360 is most likely going to hit double that by the end of this holiday. The gamecube sold even less than the 360 and is now at over 70m world wide. Its really sony that has had the huge reversal of fortunes this gen shipping over 120m ps2s and is now struggling out of 3rd place with the ps3.

its a really interesting case study and while many may lament it , i think sony will come out of it as a much better game company for the consumer . This gen they were really forced to look at thier weaknesses and they have come up with competent if not good fps games and finally fully entered the online space. Like nintendo's current direction or not , but they are certianly a much better company for the consumer than they were during the n64 days

I also think it shows that market can support 3 players very well. Looking back the market could only support the nes at the expense of everything else. The genesis redefined this and allowed two players to propser. But with the addition of the playstation the market once again showed it was stuck at two systems as the failing of the saturn showed. during the ps2 era sony had far and away the largest market share and if it wasn't for ms's deep pockets they wouldn't have been able to stay in the market. This gen clearly shows that as long as one isn't a ps2 run away sucess for a company that 3 companys can exist in the space. I think next gen will expand on that even more so. This is a great thing for all of us also. More choices mean more gamers will be represented better than previously.

 

[dobwal]

For Sony, Asia Pacific is just as big a market as US and EU, and other areas are about half that. Now this includes all Sony products, they don't break it down by division, but it's safe to assume that PS3 presence in those regions would be far stronger than Xbox or the Wii.

No it doesn't. The biggest market in terms of overall revenue generation for Sony is Japan. But Sony doesn't have a stronger presence in Japan than Nintendo just because Nintendo biggest market is the US or Europe.

There is nothing that says that PS3 sales correlates well with the overall sales of Sony products in any given market. Just because Sony's revenue is roughly even now in Europe, US and its Asian market, doesn't mean the mixture for low price items to high priced items is the same across all markets.

 

[dobwal]

No, it doesn't matter where they are. They have been bought by retailers, who won't buy any more beyond what they are willing to have in stock (or on order), whether those PS3's paid for are in GameStop's warehouse, Sony's, on a ship, or wherever.

Then their previous method of reporting of shipped wasn't problematic. All the consoles ended up on stores shelves eventually and there was nothing to says that the shipped figures ultimately determined how Sony recorded sales.

Sony simply could've changed how they record sales by getting early commitments for allocations in advance for each console coming off the line and basically use the same methodology of counting consoles they have been using for years.

Recording sales vastly different from how competitors record sales is as problematic as recording shipments vastly different from how competitors record shipments. "Recorded sales" is not strictly defined and therefore we can't determine if Sony, MS and Nintendo methodology for reporting quarterly shipments are the same.

Ultimately in the end it doesn't matter, Sony isn't going to end up in first, second or third simply based on how it reports quarterly shipment or recorded sales.

 

[joker454]

I really like how the PS3 is turning out to be the comeback kid it looks like it will take 2nd place after looking like a sure loser.

I wonder if blu-ray movie playback is starting to matter. Initially when it was thought this was going to be a 5 to 6 year gen I didn't think it would have any effect. But now that they want to stretch it to an 8 year gen, looks like supporting blu-ray movie playback right out of the box could be a factor.

 

[patsu]

The web... it may matter more now/soon... [Point in far away direction... Over the green hills, I see Orcs, UI problems and currency issues]

 

[dobwal]

I wonder if blu-ray movie playback is starting to matter. Initially when it was thought this was going to be a 5 to 6 year gen I didn't think it would have any effect. But now that they want to stretch it to an 8 year gen, looks like supporting blu-ray movie playback right out of the box could be a factor.

I thinks its more about Sony having a compelling product and the big 3 relinquishing the "first or broke" mantra of last gen. It would probably still have been problematic for Sony with substantial losses if all three had maintain the aggressive strategies used last generation.

All three consoles have been able to thrive and see at least some returns while creating a more stable ecosystem, instead of all pushing lower and lower retail sales prices while bleeding losses year after year.

 

[-tkf-]

I don't see a way for sony to top the wii now unless they continue to sell the ps3 till 2020. They might top the xbox 360 and most likely will unless kinect makes the 360 a runaway hit in europe. However the xbox only did 24m sales and the 360 is most likely going to hit double that by the end of this holiday. The gamecube sold even less than the 360 and is now at over 70m world wide. Its really sony that has had the huge reversal of fortunes this gen shipping over 120m ps2s and is now struggling out of 3rd place with the ps3.

its a really interesting case study and while many may lament it , i think sony will come out of it as a much better game company for the consumer . This gen they were really forced to look at thier weaknesses and they have come up with competent if not good fps games and finally fully entered the online space. Like nintendo's current direction or not , but they are certianly a much better company for the consumer than they were during the n64 days

I also think it shows that market can support 3 players very well. Looking back the market could only support the nes at the expense of everything else. The genesis redefined this and allowed two players to propser. But with the addition of the playstation the market once again showed it was stuck at two systems as the failing of the saturn showed. during the ps2 era sony had far and away the largest market share and if it wasn't for ms's deep pockets they wouldn't have been able to stay in the market. This gen clearly shows that as long as one isn't a ps2 run away sucess for a company that 3 companys can exist in the space. I think next gen will expand on that even more so. This is a great thing for all of us also. More choices mean more gamers will be represented better than previously.

The PS2 kept selling for a long time, don´t know the numbers, but i recall being somewhat surprised that it just kept going on and on. Sony had an interest in keeping it going (Cue the BC removal) and i think they will repeat that one with the PS3, while Microsoft couldn´t kill the XBOX fast enough and Nintendo basicly replaces their consoles with a new version.

I am in doubt about the Move and Kinect addons, i find Kinect to be awesome technology, but i think they took it one step to far with the arm and leg kicking. Move seems more like an advanced version of Wii and maybe it´s just to conservative and will just be "Wii PS3". But i am not the majority, they bought a Wii and i don´t owe one yet. My kid plays on my N64 and my GameCube and Wii when he visits friends (he is 5). His dad finds wii to be cool for drinking games, but i prefer Guitar Hero in those instances

I wonder if blu-ray movie playback is starting to matter. Initially when it was thought this was going to be a 5 to 6 year gen I didn't think it would have any effect. But now that they want to stretch it to an 8 year gen, looks like supporting blu-ray movie playback right out of the box could be a factor.

I think it always mattered (o rly! ), but i mayebe there is something about 360 and Wii being left in the cold for those that just "look for a console", because they lack Blu-Ray which is becoming the norm. I didn´t really think about that.

 

[Tchock]

For Sony, Asia Pacific is just as big a market as US and EU, and other areas are about half that. Now this includes all Sony products, they don't break it down by division, but it's safe to assume that PS3 presence in those regions would be far stronger than Xbox or the Wii.

Diminishing real fast in AP. The Xbox really caught on thanks to this thing called backups (!!!)
For the people that could afford, the PS3 wasn't the ideal solution either with region games not being subsidized- costing $5-15 more per title.

This is alarming considering that the GC and XB1 actually gained a foothold in other markets yet in APAC they were literally nonstarters. Wii60 turned that around.

On the contrary the PSP/DS situation here is much more balanced. Counted in Japan numbers though.

 

[NathansFortune]

Great numbers from Sony. 3.5m this Q means around 6.5m next Q matching last year's performance!

I still see there are people doubting these numbers, oh dear. Rangers et al, give up already. The reality of the situation is that the PS3 sells a lot more outside of the USA than 360. The USA as a market accounts for more than 50% of 360 sales and around a third of PS3 sales. That's not new information though. It's been known for a long time that the market shares for each region for PS3 are USA 35%, PAL 45%, JPN 15%, RoW 5%, 360 is more like USA 50%, PAL 40%, JPN <5%, RoW ~ 5%.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Great numbers from Sony. 3.5m this Q means around 6.5m next Q matching last year's performance!

I still see there are people doubting these numbers, oh dear. Rangers et al, give up already.

Telling people to give up is not constructive debate. They present valid questions, which if wrong can be proven wrong with valid evidence. Present real numbers or information, not just "everyone knows" arguments founded on nothing but bar room banter and water-cooler gossip.

In your case, present the facts that support your distribution figures and the arguments that suggest this quarter hasn't seen any change in sales.

 

[Brad Grenz]

It's not like the doubters have presented any evidence that Sony has misreported. They are the ones claiming something is amiss. Perhaps they should offer some proof beyond their personal misgivings. Given what we've known about the relative sales trajectories of each console for some time now, there's really nothing that suspicious about Sony's reported numbers. Xbox can't spend the last year losing ground in Japan and Europe and barely holding off the PS3 in North America without seeing their lead shrink. We also have some pretty clear indication that Wii is losing steam in all three territories. There's not much point in the insinuation that Sony's reported numbers must somehow be wrong when there's nothing to back that up beyond certain individuals' cognitive dissonance.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

It's not like the doubters have presented any evidence that Sony has misreported. They are the ones claiming something is amiss. Perhaps they should offer some proof beyond their personal misgivings. Given what we've known about the relative sales trajectories of each console for some time now, there's really nothing that suspicious about Sony's reported numbers. Xbox can't spend the last year losing ground in Japan and Europe and barely holding off the PS3 in North America without seeing their lead shrink. We also have some pretty clear indication that Wii is losing steam in all three territories. There's not much point in the insinuation that Sony's reported numbers must somehow be wrong when there's nothing to back that up beyond certain individuals' cognitive dissonance.

They have provided data to back up their concerns in the form of retail sales data from NPD for NA/US and Japan. Which would imply that PS3 must be selling greater than 2:1 versus X360 in Europe and other territories.

Nintendo's sales charts for the EU seems to indicate that PS3 is relatively equal to X360 this past quarter. So where are all these other PS3's going to?

One obvious answer would be possibly stuffing the channel in anticipation for higher volumes following the introduction of the Move controller. Either because Sony anticipated higher sales or retailers anticipated higher sales. I'm not sure that could account for all units, but it's always a possibility. The difficulty of getting reliable retail sales numbers from most of the EU makes this a guessing game at best.

Note - I'm not saying Sony has fudged any numbers. But people shouldn't just dismiss potential oddities just because the company in question says it's OK.

IMO, MS numbers tend to be fairly representative just due to the fact that they are constantly under the microscope with everyone and anyone waiting for the chance to slap a lawsuit on them. But even with that, it doesn't mean they can't make a mistake.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's not like the doubters have presented any evidence that Sony has misreported.

What was this post then? Or this one? Agree or not with Rangers et al, at least their arguments are following the information as it's being presented and looking at corrolations between sets of figures. A lot of the counterarguments are ignoring this and either saying, "Sony wouldn't do that," without checking to see that the numbers work, or saying, "drop it," as if no-one should ever question the general viewpoint and should accept everything at face value.

 

[Brad Grenz]

What was this post then? Or this one? Agree or not with Rangers et al, at least their arguments are following the information as it's being presented and looking at corrolations between sets of figures. A lot of the counterarguments are ignoring this and either saying, "Sony wouldn't do that," without checking to see that the numbers work, or saying, "drop it," as if no-one should ever question the general viewpoint and should accept everything at face value.

Well, there's the legitimate question as to how complete those tracking numbers are. I don't know what countries Nintendo's "European" numbers represent. In Nintendo's other graphs for Europe, they only seem to cite the UK, France, Germany and Spain. Sony Europe sells in a lot more countries than that in the EU, plus I believe they are responsible for Australia and the Middle East as well. We also know Sony sells PS3s in East Asia and South America, Russia, I'm sure, for which we have no tracking data, and as we all know, even NPD's numbers are incomplete and estimate figures for retailers they don't have an agreement with. Hell, I don't even know how complete the Japanese sales figures are. I think these tracking services do a decent job of telling us how each platform is doing relative to the others, but don't give us a complete enough picture for us to draw any conclusions when their scatter-shot aggregate sum differs from a corporate financial statement.