Shifty Geezer said:
I'm not just thinking as me, but looking at the statistics. 10% of XB owners play Live! Halo 2 sold at least 6 million copies with a free 3 months IIRC Live! and the majority didn't continue this subscription. Online just isn't big. It doesn't appeal to people in the same way playing alone or with known friends apparently does.
Live had a couple major hurdles this gen:
1. It did not deploy with the console at launch.
2. It was not included with the console at launch.
3. Early game support was weak. First gen games and a lot of games in development when Live deployed did NOT use the features.
4. Broadband access has ballooned over the last couple years and at approaching 40M US (215M world wide) at the end of 2005 is finally hitting mass market penetration.
Chicken & Egg scenario.
If the hardware does not ship with it people don't have it.
And if the hardware was lacking the software wont support it.
So MS has changed that.
1. Xbox Live 360 is a central pillar to the 360 platform and will be deployed on Day 1.
2. Live Silver is included with EVERY console; 30 day trial of Gold free.
3. Every game MUST be Xbox Live aware. Further, since Live has a 2M player following on Xbox1 and the feature is being pushed a lot of games are going to use the features out of the box.
4. Broadband access worldwide in fall 2005, compared to fall 2000, is
With microtransactions, level updates, more emphasis on COOP, more games using the features, etc... and most importantly being part of the platfrom from DAY 1 and part of the software paradigm from conception it will do a lot better.
MS is projected to get 35% of the market. With a projection of 160M total console sales, that would give MS about 56M consoles this gen.
Based on their goal of 50% Live activity, that would bring that number to ~28M Live users.
Even if MS falls substantially short (lets say 35% Live users) that as many 360 Live users as total Xbox1 sales
(20M).
Personally I do not see 50%. But 30-35% seems reasonable long term (higher at launch... maybe 70% in the first year... decreasing as the number of casuals join).
I agree that there needs to be more options online though. We love FPS/competitive games like Madden and racers and MMOs, but to pull in more casual gamers you need other stuff... like Sims! And COOP (which MS is really pushing).
So there is a LOT of work to be done in online game to pull casual console gamers in.
But the reverse is also true: Online gaming pulls in non-typical gamers. I HATE SP gaming for the most part (for a host of reasons). I like to interact with PEOPLE. Either in person or online. More personable, more challenging, more rewarding--and less anti-social. My friends are the same way (in my narrow/personal observation none of my real life friends play games alone--only in groups/online--and I am venturing an estimate of 90% of my online gaming friends never play non-online games). So there is a demographic to appeal to and grow--one that would not typically be too interested in an offline game.
Just one of those areas to expand gaming. But there is still the need of the "killer app" that pulls a LOT of casuals in. A game more like Animal Crossing or Spore and less like Halo and Madden.
Anyhow I think it
will be a big deal this gen. The market is different, hardcore gamers want it, and it is expanding with features (like COOP) and gametypes that appeal to new audiances.
It wont match non-online gaming but it will be one way the market expands and appeals to new gamers and adds value/longevity to gaming. And if MS/Sony get 35% of gamers online this gen (~140M projected consoles between them) that is 50M people online. That number far outreaches other features tooted this gen (like HD support).
Edit: had 215M NA next to 40M US... 215M is projected 2005 worldwide penetration.