*Rumors Spin-off* 360 & Blu Ray

[patsu]

Older movies as in titles released for some time ago or older movies just now making the transition to BD??

In Fox's case, I believe it's for older Blu-ray releases (not older movies).

In Sony Pictures and Warner Bro's case, I think it's more broad-base. Don't have the links. You might have to search them yourself

 

[patsu]

I can only point you to here to suggest that while you may personally see this "large disparity in picture quality", that I have to agree with expletive, without things being split screen on a set I would wager a hefty amount of my own money suggesting that many people would not see the difference between an HD download and BD given how many people (anecdotal) barely distinguish between DVD and BD and then there is that whole viewing distance v set size v resolution debate edit: v good/bad encodes.

Yes, most people have not gotten used to HD movie content yet. So it's hard for them to tell the difference without an AB comparison. I believe HD products are sold better via word of mouth and actual viewing experiences in a friend's place. This is why BDA must absolutely fix the player incompatibility issues so that they will never happen again.

The AB comparisons in stores are rather effective in showing the differences (at least it caught my wife's attention immediately), but many of my friends are still waiting for the like of Bravias to drop further. They are not too keen on lesser brands even though they may be affordable now.

I believe BD-J and BD-Live are also not used "correctly" today. The best and most useful examples I have seen are Portable Copy, Sony Picture's Blu-reward loyalty program, and NetBlender (integration with iPod + iPhone). However, they are pretty obscure and inconsistent to access. Most people would not know how to activate them. These features should be promoted and accessible right at the beginning of the movie (or in the main menu very clearly).

Many owners think that iPhone has the most cellphone features because they can use them easily and effectively. Blu-ray products need to get there.

patsu, in retail stores I have not seen many price reductions unless the "Price Cut" signs I see at Target are the new reduced prices and not a sale.

I have no idea what the exact mechanisms are. It was a mark down, so "price cut" might be it (instead of sales). Then again, the retailers may throw their own promotion to attract holiday buyers.

 

[Vic]

Actually, they have started to. Fox, Sony Pictures and Warner have announced that they will lower their price (in some cases for older movies only) this fall.

Yeah I've noticed this in the UK. £15 is the average online, but high street prices are still too high.

Market penetration will take time. People have been far too quick to write off Blu-ray. The next Xbox will have it, and the one advantage it does have of course is that its backwardly compatible with DVD. But I dont think MS will want to back it now, as it will represent a u-turn on their previous assertions.

EDIT: I worry for those people that cant seen the difference, but I thinks its one of those urban myths that 'average Joe wont tell the difference.' For those that really cant, they will stay with SD and illegal downloads. Look at the pricing of downloads on Live! Its a rip-off when you consider the quality and the format of the films.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Differences are hit and miss. There is a degree of blur in the actual movie footage, both motion blur and DOF. In 'Casino Royale', during the action scenes it makes no difference whether you were watching HD or SD (other than compression perhaps artefacts), whereas I remember one long-view scene with clear traffic cones that I mentioned at the time were 'clearly HD'. Animations and CG (and computer games!) are likely to benefit much more from HD, or very artistically photographed films like Heroes perhaps. The difference otherwise just isn't that great to strike absolutely everyone between the eyes.

 

[fehu]

EDIT: I worry for those people that cant seen the difference, but I thinks its one of those urban myths that 'average Joe wont tell the difference.' For those that really cant, they will stay with SD and illegal downloads. Look at the pricing of downloads on Live! Its a rip-off when you consider the quality and the format of the films.

I'm one that on a normal screen can't tell the difference between hd and sd movie.
On bigger screen and with true hd content i see the many more details, but in that case i don't really care...
*For me* a generically hd coded movie on a normal screen is yet overkill.

 

[patsu]

Animations and CG (and computer games!) are likely to benefit much more from HD, or very artistically photographed films like Heroes perhaps.

This is true. I guess that's why the Simpson's movie above was encoded to an exceptionally high spec. I believe HD Anime is rather popular too.

My personal favorites are films and documentaries about wildlife and nature. The (individual !) furs, whiskers, and feathers are rather stunning and discernible in HD (You can tell right away it's not DVD even without AB comparison). On a big screen, it's like watching a leopard up close.

Panomaric views like the "birds" opening scene of Planet Earth is breathtaking too because you can see more scenery and more details at the same time.

 

[-tkf-]

BD players prices are dropping but I very seldom see titles dropping in prices on the average. Titles bought in stores havent changed price for main releases as of yet.

In Denmark i am finally starting to see Blu-Ray dics closer to DVD prices and some even are on "sale", usually older titles or smaller titles. Everything used to be +50%

 

[woundingchaney]

In Denmark i am finally starting to see Blu-Ray dics closer to DVD prices and some even are on "sale", usually older titles or smaller titles. Everything used to be +50%

Here in the US a similar trend is occurring. Of course it is considerably more common with lower profile players, but it is occurring none the less. Rumors/reports are circulating that we (here in my territory) can expect BD player prices to be around 150usd this holiday season.

Now for that damn pesky overpriced media.


As far as on topic I personally dont see the incentive for MS to release a BD player add on at this time. BD represents such a small fraction of the market the cost-reward ratio (on top of other issues mentioned) simply doesnt seem to be overly positive for MS at this point and ultimately at least until the successor to the 360 comes to fruition.

 

[-tkf-]

Here in the US a similar trend is occurring. Of course it is considerably more common with lower profile players, but it is occurring none the less. Rumors/reports are circulating that we (here in my territory) can expect BD player prices to be around 150usd this holiday season.

Now for that damn pesky overpriced media.


As far as on topic I personally dont see the incentive for MS to release a BD player add on at this time. BD represents such a small fraction of the market the cost-reward ratio (on top of other issues mentioned) simply doesnt seem to be overly positive for MS at this point and ultimately at least until the successor to the 360 comes to fruition.

Question if how much market would be needed for it to be a "must", i think there is a long way to go for a real need. But we know how this works, at some point it may become a perceived needed feature.

 

[woundingchaney]

Question if how much market would be needed for it to be a "must", i think there is a long way to go for a real need. But we know how this works, at some point it may become a perceived needed feature.

The "must" figure would of course be subjective, but I think we can all agree that around 7% is not the one we are looking for. The optical movie market is as a whole down so a turnaround doesnt look to be in the books anytime soon. I think it is safe to say by the time BD starts looking like anything near mainstream adoption then the concept of an addon drive for the 360 will be long forgotten.

There is simply at this time littile to no real incentive and only dramatic hurdles for MS to release a competitive add on drive/player.

 

[-tkf-]

The "must" figure would of course be subjective, but I think we can all agree that around 7% is not the one we are looking for. The optical movie market is as a whole down so a turnaround doesnt look to be in the books anytime soon. I think it is safe to say by the time BD starts looking like anything near mainstream adoption then the concept of an addon drive for the 360 will be long forgotten.

There is simply at this time littile to no real incentive and only dramatic hurdles for MS to release a competitive add on drive/player.

If they wanted to compete they would need to redesign the hardware and make it a build in drive. And they would have a hard time since they would be compared to the PS3 all the time.

 

[one]

I think you nailed the bulk of the problem right there. Even if Microsoft did make a bluray add-on and executed/priced it perfectly, they would still be:

1) helping perception that ps3 was justified in having blu-ray standard
2) supporting java, a mortal enemy
3) financially supporting numerous competitor organizations/standards
4) looking gimped since it can't be used for games
5) looking more clunky or less elegant with the add-on compare to the ps3
6) looking less competitively priced when people automatically start including the cost of the blu-ray add-on when comparing to the ps3, whether they need it or not
7) competing against their own download store
8) adding support costs

...and so on. I really can't see the point in them going with blu-ray on the 360. The small money they would make off the add-on is a pittance for Microsoft in the grand scheme of things. They would be better off selling a $99 320gb hdd that can be used to download movies, buy stuff of live, etc, rather than a $99 blu-ray add-on that nets them no cash after it's purchased.

Most of those concern may not apply if a third party releases an add-on by their own intent. If there's a chance to make a profit purely out of selling the hardware, a third party can be interested to release a product under their own brand with some or little help from Microsoft.

In any case, it's hard not to imagine Xbox 720 doesn't have a Blu-ray drive in it, the broadband future is a bit too far to make it in 2011. Some of the concerns above are minor issues in a long-term view.

But there's another possibility. It looks like this:
1) Microsoft releases a new Xbox 360 model with an internal BD drive, plus a motion controller or other enhancements. (It can even be more powerful hardware-wise than the current 360, but it's another rumor)
2) Microsoft also starts to release games on BD, such as Halo 4.
3) Those same games become available on multiple DVD sets too, but those require HDD installation.

If it's Halo 4, Core/Arcade users will be compelled to buy an HDD drive. After the platform holder shows the new scheme can actually work, third parties can follow.

All those things depend on how Microsoft thinks of the Xbox 360 plan these days, the console architecture which was supposed to last a lot longer than the first Xbox to recoup their investment.

 

[woundingchaney]

Most of those concern may not apply if a third party releases an add-on by their own intent. If there's a chance to make a profit purely out of selling the hardware, a third party can be interested to release a product under their own brand with some or little help from Microsoft.

In any case, it's hard not to imagine Xbox 720 doesn't have a Blu-ray drive in it, the broadband future is a bit too far to make it in 2011. Some of the concerns above are minor issues in a long-term view.

But there's another possibility. It looks like this:
1) Microsoft releases a new Xbox 360 model with an internal BD drive, plus a motion controller or other enhancements. (It can even be more powerful hardware-wise than the current 360, but it's another rumor)
2) Microsoft also starts to release games on BD, such as Halo 4.
3) Those same games become available on multiple DVD sets too, but those require HDD installation.

If it's Halo 4, Core/Arcade users will be compelled to buy an HDD drive. After the platform holder shows the new scheme can actually work, third parties can follow.

All those things depend on how Microsoft thinks of the Xbox 360 plan these days, the console architecture which was supposed to last a lot longer than the first Xbox to recoup their investment.

I really cant see this happening. Outside of the forum life it is becoming evident that the mainstream consumers arent overly concerned with a BD drive in their consoles. If it is a future perceptions it is not as if dvd games are going the way of the dodo anytime soon. By incorporating a BD drive into the 360 MS will see considerably higher manufacturing costs along with considerable royalties. This would only raise the cost of their already wallet breaking Elite sku. With the Elite sku most likely the most profit generating configuration I cannot see MS tampering too much with its offerings. Producing 2 separate versions of the same game is only going to cause consumer backlash and lead to consumer confusion along with once again higher manufacturing, distribution, and packaging costs.

The concept of mandatory HDD installs is another topic altogether. I would imagine that "some" titles in the future will require a hdd install (much like they do now) though it becoming prevalent is unlikely. This is particularly due to the high sale percentage the Core sku is receiving as of late and its sku sales percentage in the future. Additionally publishers are not interested in splitting their potential user-base anymore than necessary.

Xbox 720 (or whatever) will most likely incorporate a BD drive (imo).

If they wanted to compete they would need to redesign the hardware and make it a build in drive. And they would have a hard time since they would be compared to the PS3 all the time.

They are effectively competing now without a BD drive. I dont see the necessity of incorporating one in the hardware. The add-on would of course coincide with the MS mantra of "consumer choice", but ultimately I dont see the need it for the 360 to hold a viable competitive stance in the market.

 

[one]

They are effectively competing now without a BD drive.

Basically an internal BD drive is just one of enhancements in the new Xbox 360 model I described. Microsoft is not so stupid as to think just slapping a BD drive in it makes it more appealing to consumers. A BD drive is already cheap, but it will be cheaper in 2010. Also, they are competing for now but the sales figures don't look that good if you consider it's at the peak year in a console cycle. If Microsoft thinks it needs a new brand, this new Xbox 360 model may get some CPU/GPU enhancements to be christened as Xbox 720 in 2010. Anyway Microsoft is testing the waters for something with HDD install in the NXE firmware.

 

[assen]

Also, they are competing for now but the sales figures don't look that good if you consider it's at the peak year in a console cycle.

It's at the peak year in a console cycle if you count "years since the launch"; however, it may make just as much sense to count "years since it's $200", where the peak year is the second, and the Xbox 360 has much life in it.

 

[-tkf-]

They are effectively competing now without a BD drive. I dont see the necessity of incorporating one in the hardware. The add-on would of course coincide with the MS mantra of "consumer choice", but ultimately I dont see the need it for the 360 to hold a viable competitive stance in the market.

I meant compared on the BluRay playback. Since the PS3 is the best BluRay player the 360 would have to be just as good.

 

[eastmen]

I don't see why it can't be every bit as good as the ps3 at playback. The hd dvd add on for the 360 was the best hd dvd player on the market and a xbox 360 sku with bluray built in can very well be the best bluray player out there and at the very least tie for the ps3.

Actually if you think about it the ps3 has what a 2x or 4 x bluray drive ? The 360 could come with a faster drive and can reduce load times over the ps3 and other players just due to the fact that its newer.

 

[patsu]

It's moot to speculate either way. Better drives can be used in future PS3 too (It will become cheaper to include them).

 

[-tkf-]

I don't see why it can't be every bit as good as the ps3 at playback. The hd dvd add on for the 360 was the best hd dvd player on the market and a xbox 360 sku with bluray built in can very well be the best bluray player out there and at the very least tie for the ps3.

Actually if you think about it the ps3 has what a 2x or 4 x bluray drive ? The 360 could come with a faster drive and can reduce load times over the ps3 and other players just due to the fact that its newer.

The HD-DVD addon for the 360 was nice, at the price, but it had to many flaws to be called "the best". And unless they change the actual hardware in the 360 it can never compete with the PS3.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And unless they change the actual hardware in the 360 it can never compete with the PS3.

Can you please qualify such statements. What exactly needs to be changed and why?