RUMOR: Xbox 360 20GB SKU to be replaced by 60GB SKU

[AzBat]

Not really. If you really think the PS3 is going to be cheaper than the standalone Blu-ray players, you're already wrong. I can get a BD player today for well under $400. The chipsets in the BD players are significantly cheaper to manufacture than the cell, they don't have to include a hard drive, and the cooling solution is much cheaper.
People _like_ standalones. The PS3 and Xbox are loud, unwieldy, and not really designed to fit nicely into an equipment rack.

Internal BD-ROM drives don't count. And the one that is cheaper is only cheaper by about $40. So for an extra $40 I can get a game console too. Yes, I understand that a PS3 costs more to manufacture, but I totally disagree with the idea that people like stand-alones over consoles solely because of things like noise, size and looks. People actually like products that are low cost and/or have high value. Comparing a stand-alone to the PS3, the PS3 will still win because of its high value and small relative price difference. Now, I'm talking about gaming crowd here. It's not such a clear cut issue for those people who are specifically looking for a HD movie player and don't want or need a game console.

BTW, thanks for completely dismissing my other questions. I'm no Sony fan. I don't have any Sony products and wasn't planning on getting the PS3, but Microsoft's lack of foresight on Blu-ray will force me to take a long second look. I'm sure I'm not the only Xbox 360 owner considering the same.

Tommy McClain

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

This is the new official line from Microsoft, but it may well be just an acceleration of the launch schedule of Xbox 720 if you think it has a Blu-ray. It's sooner or later.

I don't see how anyone can jump to that conclusion (and I think we had the conclusion jumping discussion in another thread) based off of this information.

If BR remains the most economical physical media to distribute gaming content when the next generation of consoles are released, then I would agree that MS would have to get on board.

But despite the frequent discussions, I see no solid evidence that this generation of console games are being restricted by the storage space of the DVD.

The only way that BR would accelerate the launch of the Xbox 720 is if BR moves from being a media player option into a game playing necessity.

It isn't happening now, and I don't see it becoming a factor before the 'natural birth' of the next generation of consoles so it certainly won't accelerate MS' time line.

The next generation of consoles will still certainly require a physical distribution method, regardless of the adoption rate of digital distribution. But at this point I'm not sure that BR has won that specific battle. Media content is different than gaming content.

The Xbox720 could go back to the good ole' days of cartridges for all I can predict at this point.

 

[bkilian]

Internal BD-ROM drives don't count. And the one that is cheaper is only cheaper by about $40. So for an extra $40 I can get a game console too. Yes, I understand that a PS3 costs more to manufacture, but I totally disagree with the idea that people like stand-alones over consoles solely because of things like noise, size and looks. People actually like products that are low cost and/or have high value. Comparing a stand-alone to the PS3, the PS3 will still win because of its high value and small relative price difference. Now, I'm talking about gaming crowd here. It's not such a clear cut issue for those people who are specifically looking for a HD movie player and don't want or need a game console.

BTW, thanks for completely dismissing my other questions. I'm no Sony fan. I don't have any Sony products and wasn't planning on getting the PS3, but Microsoft's lack of foresight on Blu-ray will force me to take a long second look. I'm sure I'm not the only Xbox 360 owner considering the same.

Tommy McClain

No one is going to stop you from buying a PS3, it's a really nice game machine, and arguably the best BD player out there, unless you want 5.1 analog out. Of course I haven't bothered, since the only games I would want to play on it are the RPG ones, and the 360 has a surfeit of JRPG and western RPG games at the moment. Far more than the PS3.
The decision not to use a next gen disc format in the 360 was pretty easy when they found out that neither of the formats would be even close to ready by the time they wanted to launch, and would cost significantly more in BOM.

We have more interesting things to concentrate on nowadays. I'm not yet convinced Blu-ray will ever manage to pull itself out of niche status.

 

[one]

I don't see how anyone can jump to that conclusion (and I think we had the conclusion jumping discussion in another thread) based off of this information.

If BR remains the most economical physical media to distribute gaming content when the next generation of consoles are released, then I would agree that MS would have to get on board.

But despite the frequent discussions, I see no solid evidence that this generation of console games are being restricted by the storage space of the DVD.

The only way that BR would accelerate the launch of the Xbox 720 is if BR moves from being a media player option into a game playing necessity.

It isn't happening now, and I don't see it becoming a factor before the 'natural birth' of the next generation of consoles so it certainly won't accelerate MS' time line.

The next generation of consoles will still certainly require a physical distribution method, regardless of the adoption rate of digital distribution. But at this point I'm not sure that BR has won that specific battle. Media content is different than gaming content.

The Xbox720 could go back to the good ole' days of cartridges for all I can predict at this point.

I don't see cartridges as viable distribution media for HD consoles with more than 2GB RAM in 2010 and after. NDS carts are under 256MB.

We have more interesting things to concentrate on nowadays. I'm not yet convinced Blu-ray will ever manage to pull itself out of niche status.

Unlike, eh, HD DVD that MS supported?

 

[Feces]

360 with BluRay is instabuy for me...

There is clearly not enough separation between premium and elite models. If the price drop is coming across the board there will be price room for a new elite with built in bluray. I would have no problem getting a $599 elite with built in bluray and a 200-300 Gig drive for example. Assuming all the proper connections are present this would be a nice media center box.

My current pro would just go up to the kids room so they can stop hogging the big tv. Side note someone needs to create an app to run netflix on demand stuff from the xbox so I can watch some movies directly. I know netflix is planning on releasing that stand alone box out in near future. I wish they would just do it though xbox network.

 

[Diamond.G]

I don't see cartridges as viable distribution media for HD consoles with more than 2GB RAM in 2010 and after. NDS carts are under 256MB.

Unlike, eh, HD DVD that MS supported?

64GB SSD carts could be relatively inexpensive (or maybe use the 16/32 GB variants and scale upwards) by then.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I don't see cartridges as viable distribution media for HD consoles with more than 2GB RAM in 2010 and after. NDS carts are under 256MB.

You haven't really looked at flash prices lately have you.

Current prices of MLC 8Gb and 16Gb are sold under cost, with the former closing at US$2.55 and the later at US$4.65 at the lowest on March 10, according to figures posted by DRAMeXchange.

 

[-tkf-]

digital distribution

It´s possible to buy movies for keeps now?

 

[Tap In]

It´s possible to buy movies for keeps now?

Some TV shows and other media, yes... movies, I hardly ever buy so it really never crossed my mind that it could be a drawback but I can see how it would be for some people. As I said, a foundation is in place. That means they have room to expand and configure it for the market over time.

 

[bkilian]

Unlike, eh, HD DVD that MS supported?

Absolutely. The BD folks are currently predicting they *may* hit the $200 mark at the end of *next year*. They're also refusing to license the technology to chinese manufacturers in an attempt to bolster up prices as long as possible.
Don't just take my word for it, you can read it for yourself

He talked of a slow steady decline in the prices of Blu-ray players, which Sony now sells for $399 and up. He said that prices will fall to $299 for this Christmas and may be under $200 by the end of 2009. Sony isn’t the only one that makes Blu-ray players; Sharp, Samsung and other big electronics companies also compete with Sony.
Mr. Glasgow expressed hope that price levels wouldn’t collapse the way they did for DVD players. To protect against this, he said the Blu-ray Association, the group that controls the Blu-ray standard, has not licensed it to any manufacturers in China. (Cheap players from China were a large part of the collapse of the DVD player market.)

High priced players + expensive discs == niche format.

 

[-tkf-]

Some TV shows and other media, yes... movies, I hardly ever buy so it really never crossed my mind that it could be a drawback but I can see how it would be for some people. As I said, a foundation is in place. That means they have room to expand and configure it for the market over time.

Ok thanks. And you can redownload you purchases?

The thing is that i always compare Digital Distribution with Rentals since you don´t own the movie, you just rent it. This isn´t the case with TV-Shows on XBOX Live that you buy.
I´m curious on how they are making sure the buyer "keeps" his purchase. You would either have to be able to back it up (unlikely) or be able to redownload it?.

 

[one]

You haven't really looked at flash prices lately have you.

So? If you devise the way to manufacture them cheaper than a plastic disc, you'll win a Nobel prize for sure.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

To be fair, though the price will always be higher, it won't necessarily be prohibitive. Aren't BRD discs currently something like >$2 to fabricate? Another $3 on top of that wouldn't be doom and disaster.

 

[-tkf-]

To be fair, though the price will always be higher, it won't necessarily be prohibitive. Aren't BRD discs currently something like >$2 to fabricate? Another $3 on top of that wouldn't be doom and disaster.

Well Fox just slashed 10$ from some of their titles, it´s going in the right direction.

 

[one]

To be fair, though the price will always be higher, it won't necessarily be prohibitive. Aren't BRD discs currently something like >$2 to fabricate? Another $3 on top of that wouldn't be doom and disaster.

A 512MB RAM console uses a 50GB disc now. With 2GB RAM (this is relatively conservative as a forecast), 200GB seems suitable. Then let's apply Moore's Law to today's flash price 2GB = 4.65$ in 2008. It's only 8GB in 2010, 16GB in 2011 and 32GB in 2012. Meanwhile Blu-ray will reach 8-layer, 200GB with similar cost.

I wrote before that Wii 2 can use BD. Winning the disc standard is very important for Sony not only because of movie-related sales but also securing the possibility that game console competitors use it. Of course we can envision a console that relies only on online distribution, but betting everything on it is a bit too early.

 

[Tim]

To be fair, though the price will always be higher, it won't necessarily be prohibitive. Aren't BRD discs currently something like >$2 to fabricate? Another $3 on top of that wouldn't be doom and disaster.

Actually BRD are below $1.5 now.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

A 512MB RAM console uses a 50GB disc now. With 2GB RAM (this is relatively conservative as a forecast)

As discussed in another thread, increases in performance can reduce the need for data-hungry assets. At the moment we use backed lightmaps because we can't get better. If we had the power, we'd be better off rendering ambient occlusion/GI in realtime. Next-gen that'll be an option. Likewise realtime geometry creation and displacement would allow for simpler meshes, and full advanced natural simulation would eliminate the need for a lot of mocap data. It's worth pointing out that where one 512 MB console has the capacity to use a 50 GB disc now, very few games are really hammering the capacity barriers on that console, and another 512 MB console is doing okay with an 8 GB disc. I'm pretty sure 50 GB will be fine next gen. A 64 GB cart would be perfectly adequate. I doubt we'd go back to solid state though, even though it'd be quite cool to have a little memory stick thing. Discs will be included for media functionality. Hmmm, that said, flash ports could be common too.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Actually BRD are below $1.5 now.

Does that include dual layer?

A 512MB RAM console uses a 50GB disc now. With 2GB RAM (this is relatively conservative as a forecast), 200GB seems suitable. Then let's apply Moore's Law to today's flash price 2GB = 4.65$ in 2008. It's only 8GB in 2010, 16GB in 2011 and 32GB in 2012. Meanwhile Blu-ray will reach 8-layer, 200GB with similar cost.

A 512MB ram console also uses an 8GB disc. A combination of DD and flash is a potential possibility depending on where costs goes. Content can't keep scaling up indefinitely because of prohibitive production costs.

I wrote before that Wii 2 can use BD. Winning the disc standard is very important for Sony not only because of movie-related sales but also securing the possibility that game console competitors use it. Of course we can envision a console that relies only on online distribution, but betting everything on it is a bit too early.

Sure they could, it doesn't mean they will.

 

[Zassk]

Meanwhile Blu-ray will reach 8-layer, 200GB with similar cost.

Let's apply some rational thought to this. No company is ever going to generate 200GB of art assets for a $60 (or even $120) game. Ever.

 

[bkilian]

As discussed in another thread, increases in performance can reduce the need for data-hungry assets. At the moment we use backed lightmaps because we can't get better. If we had the power, we'd be better off rendering ambient occlusion/GI in realtime. Next-gen that'll be an option. Likewise realtime geometry creation and displacement would allow for simpler meshes, and full advanced natural simulation would eliminate the need for a lot of mocap data. It's worth pointing out that where one 512 MB console has the capacity to use a 50 GB disc now, very few games are really hammering the capacity barriers on that console, and another 512 MB console is doing okay with an 8 GB disc. I'm pretty sure 50 GB will be fine next gen. A 64 GB cart would be perfectly adequate. I doubt we'd go back to solid state though, even though it'd be quite cool to have a little memory stick thing. Discs will be included for media functionality. Hmmm, that said, flash ports could be common too.

Who needs a physical distribution format at all? Let's say you buy a "game stick" in whatever size you want, then you go to the game store, ask for a copy of the game you want, and they put it on your gamestick. If you're broadband connected, you can download the game onto your gamestick yourself, in a similar manner to Xbox originals today. Store the fact that you bought the game on the cloud and you can always redownload it if you had to make space for another game.
Of course, it would destroy the second hand game market, but I doubt the console makers would shed any tears about that.