mckmas8808 said:
Do you guys think the way CELL is made that its going to take a little bit longer for PCs to past consoles than in the past?
This is asked every generation (e.g. the EE had a bit of an advantage in FP and I think memory bandwidth) and every generation the PC proves to be flexible and surpasses.
I do think the PC is going to be tested this time around, and it will struggle imo. Beyond piracy, PCs are going to be seriously challenged by the consoles in online content and in resolution. Games that were not really feasible on consoles before due to the lack of resolution are now just waiting to be published. And having GOOD VoIP chat in games, mods/updates that are easy to get at, game messaging, video chat, etc... basically everything Live is offering, those features will really push the PC to normalize those features to a degree and make them more common and EASY to use. The casual user just is not using Xfire and TeamSpeak/Ventrillo. Having that service standard on the consoles will pull in a LOT of PC gamers who are clan oriented and the like. (This is one reason MS is bringing Live to the PC!)
But technologically, I already see the PC passing the PS3, Xbox 360, etc... quite quickly. It will be a few years (as in at least 2!) before we see games begin to even THINK about taking advantage of the extra power PCs will have, but I do see PCs coming along quickly. The technology MS and Sony is offering is not some private stash. Others can take similar concepts and bring them to market, and indeed, in PC gaming this very often happens.
We are at the beginning of dual core PCs right now, so on a top end PC CPU that would double the FP from mid-twenties to 50ish. We should see quad-core PCs in the next couple years I would guess. And nothing is stopping Intel/AMD from releasing yet another vector/FP intense unit(s) like MMX, SE, 3DNow!. And while it may be a while before PC CPUs pass a CELL in floating point, CPUs do more than just FP. The FP heavy design is the CELLs strength, whereas a P4/AMD64 is a much better general processor. And to go back to the EE example, while it took a while before the PCs past the EE in FP performance, they were by all means better processors before they past the EE in that single metric. Chips just do more than FP, and PCs are require to do more than just game.
The PCs flexiblity also has to do with it is expandible. This year we will see the Ageias PPU hit the market for $250-$300. That is a 130nm chip. Whether or not it survives is not a big issue but my guess is the concept will be around for a while (I could see NV/ATI picking up the concept, or Intel/AMD... Intel's roadmap does show specialized chips being incorperated into future designs... who knows, maybe a sound company will make it a combo sound/physics card?). Anyhow, a PPU with 90nm or even 65nm fabing in the next 12-18 months will be a lot cheaper, plus as GDDR3 memory will continue to drop in price. So a PPU could eventually become a relatively cheap chip.
Also, NV has already stated they will have a GPU faster than the RSX by the time the PS3 launches. If GPUs continue to follow the path of 2x performance every 18-24 months we will be looking at PC GPUs performing 2x as fast within 2 years of its launch. 4x in four years, and 8x by the time the PS4 is ready--and that is not really looking at the new features (e.g. look at how features like HDR, AA, programmable shaders, etc... can increase the IQ).
And of course PCs have advantages like free user created content. I love mods... and the great thing about mods is that they are FREE. And PCs are a pinnacle of innovation because there are no royalties. I write small scripts/apps and I pay no one. Sony, Nintendo, MS, etc... are not beating down my door asking for money. I can create anything I want and it is available to whoever I want, whenever I want, at whatever price I dictate.
PCs also have an advantage in input device. Mice and Keyboards have weathers the test of time. And PCs allow you to use controllers, etc... but also a host of other tools.
Actually, one of the worse things that could happen to consoles would be the death of PC gaming. If all those 3D video cards go away the year-to-year developments that push the industry forward would become stagnant imo. There would be progress, but nothing like we have seen. And the PC is in many ways a test market. When a feature underperforms in the way DEVELOPERS USE IT they go back and refine it to make it more usable. Losing PC gaming would be horrible for next gen consoles.