Report: Developers are steering away from PS3

[CountZeroInt]

Developers have both Wii and PS3 dev kits, some problems still exist with the # of kits available, but for the most part that's not the blocking issue.

I think Nintendo is probably ahead of the game with documentation and tools. Sony is still in last place there and not showing signs of improving (especially with DeLoura's departure).

Developers are keeping PS3 SKUs in the mix because it's perceived as the better investment. Art and design costs way more than the effort required to make games multi-platform. As soon as people figure out that it's not really making money to have a PS3 SKU in 2007 they will probably cancel even more games or at least push them out to 2008. As for 2006 that's all pretty much up to the publisher and how badly they want to try to grab a slice of a very small pie. If they look at the example of 360 launch and games like Gun bombing, they should probably stay far, far away and let 8 or 9 focused titles do the initial pulling...just won't be the user base to support all the games they're talking about, there's no way.

 

[Acert93]

And the lowest PS3 is equipped with more features than the top 360, so what´s really the point??

I think his point is pretty clear: Consumers don't always pay more for 'more'. There are base models that serve their purpose, and then there is fully loaded. Depending on the perceived value, target market's purchasing power and demand (do the extra features appeal to the average consumer to justify a higher price?), and market competition this will fluctuate. The answer to these questions will vary obviously on an individual basis, but will shift as time progresses and factors change and adjust. MS runs some of the same risks with Wii, especially if they come in at $199 or lower and MS stays put well into 2007.

I agree with Skyring on one thing: Price is a valid issue. It is something that is nearly impossible to express to early adopters, enthusiests, etc but you guys are not 95% of the market, nor do you live in some of the poorer countries where even a couple hundred dollars is very expensive.

Features are great but only if you can afford them. With the market shifting more toward cross platform development with a limited number of exclusives price does become a factor. I don't think Sony is in danger of losing their number one position (see: Japan and Europe), but this fact speaks volumes alone: The biggest PS2 franchise, and virtual exclusive, is now multiplatform. Software is a major driver of hardware sales, and when the "GTA fan" goes to the store in October 2007 to pick up GTA4 he will quite possibly be faced with a $199 Xbox 360 and a $299 PS3. For many consumers, especially parents, the question is, "How cheap can I get the experience?" Last gen the answer was clear: To get GTA you need a PS2. So the cost was fixed. Not so this time around.

This is true of a lot of cross platform titles. This dovetails with the OP in that we have already seen a lot of developers steer away from the PS3 simply by going multi-platform specific. This is not merely a PS3 issue (rising dev costs being one reason, this the need to make more money), but MS's early install base head start and the PS3 cost are also factors. I would venture a guess that if Sony had been a little more conservative with the PS3 hardware (and thus 360 price parity) and didn't milk 2005 we would be seeing a situation where Sony had hefty amount of exclusives because the writing would have been on the wall: Sony was going to easily sell another 100M units.

As it is the cost model of the PS3 will make 100M units in 5 years very difficult. With uncertaintly publishers look to hedge their bets, which means more multiplatform title. I don't think we are at the "wave" part of the side effect where the glut of titles on all platforms makes the platforms nearly indistinguishable, and may never see it, but there is no denying the shift in the industry in regards to platform publishing.

The few titles steering away from the PS3 (the very few there truly are) seem to be the more result of difficulty adjusting to the platform by smaller devs or crunch issues with annual titles that need to hit a specific date so they can begin next years editions and delays are not feasible financially or pragmatically.

The real console war starts in 2007 and into 2008. If Sony is having those issues in that time frame we can talk. Until then it is mainly small developers having the typical issues launches face: too many hurdles, not enough time.

These are the same factors that hit the 360 launch (Oblivion, GRAW) and most sane people never questioned whether people were steering away from the platform or that it sucked. New platforms take time to adjust to. The PS3 is having some growing pains, it is normal. Actually the PS3 seems to be having fewer than the PS2 did, and that is nice to hear.

 

[Skrying]

And the lowest PS3 is equipped with more features than the top 360, so what´s really the point??

That the lowest point of entry for the PS3 is higher than that of the highest Xbox 360? That maybe, JUST maybe most people dont care about all of the extra features and just want to play games? In that case there's a $200 difference.

 

[Acert93]

If they look at the example of 360 launch and games like Gun bombing, they should probably stay far, far away and let 8 or 9 focused titles do the initial pulling...just won't be the user base to support all the games they're talking about, there's no way.

True, but everyone wants to be the big fish in the small pond. The Xbox 360 already has 15 titles that broke 200k in sales in the US alone and there are about 8 that have broken ~500k world wide. With the "word of mouth" good launch titles get to foster future titles it can be a pretty good investment, especially when the game moves down the bargin bin. Interestingly 6 of the top 15 titles were available on the PC and 7 were console cross platform of some sort. I don't think Sony (or any console maker) would want to be in the "Year 2" of "next gen" and have a lineup like that. It works for the first guy out because people are demanding next gen features, but by year 2 people are a little more demanding, if only because the general level of software has improved and a few core titles have shown what consumers should expect. And with a larger general library the few early hits begin to join the pack of a general stream of quality software.

 

[patsu]

Developers are keeping PS3 SKUs in the mix because it's perceived as the better investment. Art and design costs way more than the effort required to make games multi-platform. As soon as people figure out that it's not really making money to have a PS3 SKU in 2007 they will probably cancel even more games or at least push them out to 2008. As for 2006 that's all pretty much up to the publisher and how badly they want to try to grab a slice of a very small pie. If they look at the example of 360 launch and games like Gun bombing, they should probably stay far, far away and let 8 or 9 focused titles do the initial pulling...just won't be the user base to support all the games they're talking about, there's no way.

*Nod* *nod* actually I share your view and am somewhat surprised there was no/little partner backlash earlier due to the high pricing. It seems that the picture is still evolving.

PS3 sales will likely suffer more than Sony wants to because of its high price (and if the trend continues into fall 2007), although I'm delaying the judgement to see how different/unique the new Playstation packaging/experience is, and how far Sony is willing to go to establish PS3 as a platform.

The other comments on "unwanted features" are also valid (It's all relative to the price and the attractiveness of the total package). Will have to see the real thing to know for sure.

Technically speaking, there are still moves that Sony can make to curb their initial PS3 losses, or make more money out of the combined Playstation userbase (PS2, PSP and PS3). But with the recent Sony execution problems, I'm not sure whether they still have the resources to do them (or may be they are doing it behind the scene already). We'll soon see how deep in trouble (or how far ahead) Sony is since TGS is around the corner and launch is only 3 months away.

 

[NavNucST3]

True, but everyone wants to be the big fish in the small pond. The Xbox 360 already has 15 titles that broke 200k in sales in the US alone and there are about 8 that have broken ~500k world wide. With the "word of mouth" good launch titles get to foster future titles it can be a pretty good investment, especially when the game moves down the bargin bin. Interestingly 6 of the top 15 titles were available on the PC and 7 were console cross platform of some sort. I don't think Sony (or any console maker) would want to be in the "Year 2" of "next gen" and have a lineup like that. It works for the first guy out because people are demanding next gen features, but by year 2 people are a little more demanding, if only because the general level of software has improved and a few core titles have shown what consumers should expect. And with a larger general library the few early hits begin to join the pack of a general stream of quality software.

Sent in PM so as not to incur the wrath of, Vysez

 

[mckmas8808]

These are the same factors that hit the 360 launch (Oblivion, GRAW) and most sane people never questioned whether people were steering away from the platform or that it sucked. New platforms take time to adjust to. The PS3 is having some growing pains, it is normal. Actually the PS3 seems to be having fewer than the PS2 did, and that is nice to hear.

Why is it that nobody seems to understand this point that you made, and that I bolded. And like you said the PS3 is having less problems than what the PS2 had.

 

[Kanyamagufa]

Why is it that nobody seems to understand this point that you made, and that I bolded. And like you said the PS3 is having less problems than what the PS2 had.

Just like news in general, people have a tendency to focus on the negatives without paying due respect to that which is actually going well.