First post btw, hope everyone thinks its a good one...
I think this is not so much of a PSP vs GBA as a PSP vs N-gage.
Couple reasons:
Price:
While it would be nice if Sony could pack all that into a $99 dollar handheld, this is more like a mid/high-level CLIE, that's like $299, $399. Of course, Sony sells 100,000 CLIEs, but we can expect millions of PSPs, so with economies of scale, lets drop the price to $199-ish, or even $149.
Maybe I'm totally wrong here, but IMO the GBA market is still mostly the under-15 crowd - and $199 is not something Mom and Dad is willing to spend for something Junior could lose/get stolen/spill juice on at school.
Like the N-gage, I'm guessing this is for the older kids, and adults - so while this will significantly effect GBA sales, this isn't the end for Nintendo at all. It will push the GBA more into kid territory. (The N-gage will be $299 - a price that I think will drop fast
)
Timing:
If Sony wanted to beat the GBA, they wouldn't have waited for GBA to sell by the tens of millions before annoucing their PSP. Let's look at the timing - N-gage is scheduled to be out Oct. 7. By announcing PSP now, they cast a big shadow on N-gage. How many developers are thinking twice now? How many potential customers are thinking twice now?
By announcing PSP now, Sony is effectively saying, "N-gage is gonna get Dreamcasted" (Rest in Peace, DC...the world is unfair)
So what's ahead...?(going into super-speculation mode)
If we assume that Sony is in fact gunning for the N-gage, which launches 5 months from now, we should expect to hear some news coming from Sony's "backyard" developers - Konami, Square/Enix - right around the N-gage launch. Maybe a FF, or a MGS spin-off. Who knows, with 5 months, some of Sony's in-house developers might even have early screenshots, if the PSP hardware is similar enough to the PS1 or PS2. If all goes as planned, Sony will take a lot of the wind out of the Nokia launch.
Now continuing on into 2004, we get more screenshots, more games, etc.
By the PSP launch, in Q4 2004 - PS3 hype should be starting up (assuming a PS3 launch in 2005, which Panajev and Vince have guessed). A lot of that hype will feed into the PSP - and of course, if we get games that use that USB2 port to link PSP to PS3, that would defintely help sales. Perhaps a FF game with optional mini-games on the PSP, perhaps with items that could go back to the main game, that kind of thing.
For Sony, the PSP would absorb a great deal of the "gaming dollars" that might otherwise go to the Xbox or GC in 2004, as people round out their PS2 collections. It would also serve good competition if MS or Nintendo want to launch early.
Then in 2005, PS3 rolls in.
Of course, this is one hell of a rosy picture, plenty of things could go wrong. For one, MS can cook up a handheld easily - take a Pocket PC, jazz it up, and subsidize to keep the price down. But I think this is the Sony strategy, for why now, why these specs.