PS3 sales

OK here is an utterly random thought I just had. Sortof related to launch numbers...

I was just thinking...

I wonder how many HD-DVD drives are microsoft shipping right now? I'm guessing it's actually rather large number? Quite possibly larger than the number of PS3s being sold?

See I was thinking 'hmm, I wonder if microsoft ordered a ginormous batch of blue laser diodes early in the year and mucked up sonys plans by causing a diode shortage'.

That would be the ultimate in 'ha ha! got you' corporate megagiant backstabbing, and if so, awesome!

Anyway back to serious discussion.....

 

I think Microsoft would do well to sell 100,000 external HD-DVD drives by the end of this year, actually. Toshiba hasn't sold that many HD-DVD players in the US yet, and the blue diode issue would only be worse for Toshiba with Sony having pre-empted so much of the production (the opposite of your suggestion).

Most importantly, I just don't see that many XBox360 fans picking it up, when it can't contribute anything to game playing, and when they could get a component HD-DVD player for only a few hundred more.

 

Then why does it keep selling out everywhere before I can get to the store? Futureshop had a pile in on Friday according to the sales guy but he was surprised to discover they'd all gone when I went in, they had more in over the weekend but were all out again when I went in today. Someone else at work who'd been hunting for one said HMV had some but they were gone by the time I got there. I think it's actually selling better than anyone really expected. And I still can't find one

 

I've been amazed at this. I fully expected to just walk in anywhere and pick one up. But no, multiple shipments at two local Targets (4-6 each time, each target) sold out before I got there. WTH. I'm still not sure if I relly want one, but I at least want the chance to drop my cash and experience buyer's remorse. Apparently, I'm not alone.

 

I actually managed to find one on my way home from work this evening. Only just got it set up so don't have detailed impressions yet, can say it's making me want to upgrade my TV though.

 

So apparently XB fans do want next gen format.

 

Laa-Yosh is right IMO. Taking NDP x 1.25 is reasonably accurate.

 

For $200 with a bundled King Kong, and remote control is pretty damn hard to pass up.

 

Toshiba sold their entire run of HD-A1(xa1's) of about 70,000 (probably a few thousand scattered through out still though). The 360 HD DVD add-on is selling quite well also. Sony's diode problem does not affect MS and Toshiba in any way. They have their own supplier.

Now how pissed are the Blu Ray CE supporters that Sony slapped on the wrist and said "no diodes for you!!! PS3 only!" I'll let you decide

 

There's only two companies making these diodes AFAIK, and they're cooperating companies, and the limits one has in production also affects the other, because they're using the same tech. I would say the diode problem doesn't affect Toshiba and MS so much, because demand for their systems is far less. sony needs a million diodes a month or so. MS and Toshiba could get away with a few tens of thousands probably. Compare your figure for 70,000 HD-A1's in 6 months versus PS3's 250k in a week, and that's supply bound!

 

IIRC Sony and Nichia are the only two companies making the blue laser diodes. Sony had a deal with Nichia to cross-license the tech for production.

Sharp announced it would be getting into production a little while ago too. That should help.

Why are there no numbers on the HD-DVD add-on if it's "selling well"?

 

What I find amazing is that people think in NDP numbers trump MS numbers. NDP numbers are useful when MS numbers are absent (MS doesn't release monthly numbers), but I've never seen anyone quote or produce documents that states NPD thinks their numbers are more accurate.

 

The multiplication factor is just a guess - why have one just for the sake of it? If their data collection is consistent for all systems, it should provide a rough comparison between the consoles (but not accurate info on absolute sales of each system).

 

No it's based on a comparison of Sony's official shipped numbers, and the NPD reported numbers.

If you are doing comparisons of sales trends NPD is fine, if you want to look at TOTAL sales, then NPD x 1.25 is a very good bet.

 

NPD numbers are still useful when comparing systems, even in the presence of official numbers (provided that it has consistent data collection for all systems). It's not good for absolute numbers. It's also not useful to compare MS's own 360 numbers with NPD's numbers for the other two systems.

 

What about that the specs or the HD-DVD is easier to hit? Meaning while you might be having issue making the blue laser for Bluerays specs, then the fall out of those may be good enough for HD-DVD?

 

So we already have Sony's official shipped numbers - why do we need to calculate it? Knowing that it is a 1.25 multiplication factor is a rather trivial point. My point it, for the purpose of comparing two consoles, the ratios:
A to B
(1.25 x A) to (1.25 x B)
are still the same.

 

Is there any indication that HD-DVD optics have a lower technical requirement than BLu-ray's?