PS3 sales

[Laa-Yosh]

I think it'd be interesting to keep track of the sales of the PS3, in light of both the X360's progress and Sony's promises.

So far all we know is that it has sold about 88.000 units in Japan. But are there any reports about the US sales, and about what kind of supplies have arrived in Japan? Rumors indicated 150-200 thousand units for the US launch and a japanese shipment larger then previously promised, but I haven't heard anything since the weekend.
It's also interesting to see that we do know that Wii has sold out.

 

[22psi]

I think it'd be interesting to keep track of the sales of the PS3, in light of both the X360's progress and Sony's promises.

So far all we know is that it has sold about 88.000 units in Japan. But are there any reports about the US sales, and about what kind of supplies have arrived in Japan? Rumors indicated 150-200 thousand units for the US launch and a japanese shipment larger then previously promised, but I haven't heard anything since the weekend.
It's also interesting to see that we do know that Wii has sold out.

yeah, NPD numbers will be very interesting. I doubt PS3 will hit 350k in NA due to massive shortages in November. I am thinking 1 million units by EOY for PS3, Wii around 3 million, and 360 around 8.5 million. Of course these are shipped numbers. I am an analyst too!

 

[Slay]

So far all we know is that it has sold about 88.000 units in Japan.

i would prefer to go with the Media Create numbers

PS3 hardware 81,639 of which:
60GB version: 45,774
20GB version: 35,865

But are there any reports about the US sales

we'll have the NPD data in the first 10 days of December

and 360 around 8.5 million

are you expecting 360 to sell 5,5M in 2 months?

 

[wco81]

Check out nextgenwars.com

PS3 is doomed!

 

[22psi]

i would prefer to go with the Media Create numbers

PS3 hardware 81,639 of which:
60GB version: 45,774
20GB version: 35,865

we'll have the NPD data in the first 10 days of December

are you expecting 360 to sell 5,5M in 2 months?

The numbers I am GUESSing at are shipped numbers. As of Sept, I believe MS said they shipped 6-6.5m units.

 

[Slay]

Check out nextgenwars.com

PS3 is doomed!

aahhhhh the random numbers scripted counter,

 

[Laa-Yosh]

are you expecting 360 to sell 5,5M in 2 months?

It has already sold more than 3 million in the US, NDP is not reliable for full sales data. Not that it maters as he has not been talking about US sales, I guess.

But let's keep the Xbox out of this, and predictions too, OK? I'd like to see some real numbers instead.

 

[Slay]

The numbers I am GUESSing at are shipped numbers. As of Sept, I believe MS said they shipped 6-6.5m units.

as of september, according to their own documents, they've shipped 5M units.

It has already sold more than 3 million in the US, NDP is not reliable for full sales data

do you have a more reliable source? if not then i think we should stick with NPD for our data, for all consoles.

 

[22psi]

as of september, according to their own documents, they've shipped 5M units.

Can you show that to me? What they said at E3 was 5-5.5m by end of June but of course I didn't believe that.

 

[Slay]

Can you show that to me? What they said at E3 was 5-5.5m by end of June but of course I didn't believe that.

sorry i was wrong, is 5M shiped as of June 30, not September 30,
http://209.85.129.104/search?q=cach...+5M+units&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&client=firefox-a

however their shipment numbers for that quarter are a bit low for europe i think, anyway let's focus on ps3 from now on.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

do you have a more reliable source? if not then i think we should stick with NPD for our data, for all consoles.

We've been through this discussion here several times. NDP reports about 80% of PS2 units shipped to the US - according to Sony itself - as actual sales, so it is perfectly reasonable to assume that we can calculate with this number for other consoles, too.
And MS has already reported 6 million shipped X360s in October.

But let me say it again: keep the Xbox out of this thread, please!

 

[Farid]

For those interested by statitics

We've been through this discussion here several times. NDP reports about 80% of PS2 units shipped to the US - according to Sony itself - as actual sales, so it is perfectly reasonable to assume that we can calculate with this number for other consoles, too

No, it's not perfectly reasonable to do so, Laa-Yosh.

You have to take into consideration the demand, the supply rate and the number of units the distribution channels can, or are willing to, absorb. These variables are different for each and every product.

In any case you can't take the supplied/sold ratio of a product and apply it to another. It's not as simple.

By the way, the NPD group is a respected company in the market research industry.
And, I'm not saying this just because marketing research is a field I happen to know very well. Or do I?

 

[London Geezer]

Agreed with Vysez, you can't just use 80% across the board just "cause it's fair". The 80% figure for PS2 was based on lots of research according to a lot of variables, which would be different for each other console as each console has different variables.

Or, in layman terms, stick to CGI Laa-Yosh j/k

 

[Laa-Yosh]

NDP reports add up to 35 million PS2s in October 60, and Sony reports a shipment of 44,3 million units by the end of September. They have 8 million units lying around in warehouses?

And we do know that their numbers are not accurate, they report less then the actual data. We need something better and so far, noone has managed to provide any other alternative.

By the way, give your advice to Dave too, when you see him...

 

[RobertR1]

The PS3 demand will quadrouple when this hits the streets. MS and Nintendo are done

http://www.techeblog.com/index.php/tech-gadget/playstation-3-grill

 

[wco81]

There was an article about NPD, their methods especially.

They can secure relationships with certain retail outlets which feed them almost real-time data. Some chains would consider it proprietary info. so the notable exception is Walmart.

But the fact that they stay in business even with incomplete coverage of the retail channel is a testament that their work is respected. It would have to be, or else people would stop paying for the data.

Companies often cite NPD data to extrapolate their share. They also won't give out their own figures of actual sales so NPD is a good, impartial baseline for comparing sales.

 

[22psi]

Anyone say 3 million by end of March?

 

[Rockster]

Console Sales Tracker

Probably wrong but interesting none the less.

 

[Mmmkay]

NDP reports add up to 35 million PS2s in October 60, and Sony reports a shipment of 44,3 million units by the end of September. They have 8 million units lying around in warehouses?

I'm sure Canada, Mexico, and South America have a few of them (that 35m NPD figure is for the United States only). Some more will be lying in warehouses and even still on production lines thanks to the 'unique' way Sony counts its shipments, with others clogging up the various shipping channels. Do we know if Sony includes replacement (not refurbished) units in their shipped figures? What about promotional or general non-retail-sold units? Plenty of those will have gone unrecorded (and rightfully so) by the NPD over the years. A discrepancy will still be there, for sure - just not quite as severe as 8 million.

If you want to include those additional territories with the 360 LTD in the US then sure, it'll very likely have sold over 3 million. But pointing blame towards NPD, when it is reporting US only sales data, I think is mislaid.

 

[Farid]

NDP reports add up to 35 million PS2s in October 60, and Sony reports a shipment of 44,3 million units by the end of September. They have 8 million units lying around in warehouses?

So, given that you're being so dismissive about this, I guess you can tell us how many units the north american distribution channels can absorb?
It will be a feat, though, if you could do that. ;p

And we do know that their numbers are not accurate, they report less then the actual data.

They're sale estimation data extrapolated from a information collected from a panel of retailers. Saying that sale estimations aren't perfectly accurate is stating the obvious.
With that said, where did you get your actual, as in correct, retail sale data?

We need something better and so far, noone has managed to provide any other alternative.)

It's virtually impossible to get something better. Not until we reach a point in our civilisation where every transactions would be centralised into a single database.
Until this orwellian situation happens the only way to get some accurate numbers is to use tracking systems (for the distribution channels that use them and/or make them available), but that wouldn't give you an overview of the sale situation, hence the use of mathematical statistics' formulas to get an approximation of the whole picture.

At this point in time, without the use of a statistical model you can't get any overall data for all the sales on the videogaming market.

In other words, it's pretty much fruitless to criticise the way the data collection methodology actually works. It's that, a not perfectly accurate representation of the market sales at a specific point in time, or, well, nothing.

By the way, give your advice to Dave too, when you see him...

I guess you're talking about Dave Baumann. In which case, I have to ask you what Wavey has to do with this topic of discussion.
I don't know, If you have something to tell him, he's online, right now, on IM...