Agreed - my take though on marketshare by the end of 2010 is:
Wii 35%
xb360 35%
ps3 30%
PS3 predictionS now that it launched in all territories
- Thread starter Nesh
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Agreed - my take though on marketshare by the end of 2010 is:
Wii 35%
xb360 35%
ps3 30%
I am fairly certain:
1) PS3 will be more successful than any failed console by any definitions of success/failure
2) If it were me, I'd have done the same regarding inclusion of Blu-ray and resulting price point even if it meant death by blue ray.
3) It's only natural for Sony to go after cinematic games (interactive movies) as they have motive, means and opportunity. I see Lair, HS, UF and recently announced Namco/Sony games as evidence of that evolution. Though expensive certainly safe bet for a company who knows gamers and big screen. Along with large scale sandbox games and MMRPGs there is still hope for them to convince classical gamers regarding value of Blu-ray. Of course there will be user generated content stuff as well.
4) Overall their business model will be much more interesting than both Microsoft and Nintendo.
I am positive:
1) While price point is important, the immediate issue is HDTV adaptation.
2) PS3 will not be PS2 (duh), and will be behind 360 for long time.
3) We will see a price cut before holiday season, and they will cite lower production costs as oppose to lower sales. Some anti-Sony fanboys will bash their PR as usual, because of 2-year-no-cut announcement.
4) Unlike previous gen, cyclic discussions of console wars will continue long after war is over.
my 2 cents...
1) PS3 will be more successful than any failed console by any definitions of success/failure
2) If it were me, I'd have done the same regarding inclusion of Blu-ray and resulting price point even if it meant death by blue ray.
3) It's only natural for Sony to go after cinematic games (interactive movies) as they have motive, means and opportunity. I see Lair, HS, U
F and recently announced Namco/Sony games as evidence of that evolution. Though expensive certainly safe bet for a company who knows gamers and big screen. Along with large scale sandbox games and MMRPGs there is still hope for them to convince classical gamers regarding value of Blu-ray. Of course there will be user generated content stuff as well. 4) Overall their business model will be much more interesting than both Microsoft and Nintendo.
I am positive:
1) While price point is important, the immediate issue is HDTV adaptation.
2) PS3 will not be PS2 (duh), and will be behind 360 for long time.
3) We will see a price cut before holiday season, and they will cite lower production costs as oppose to lower sales. Some anti-Sony fanboys will bash their PR as usual, because of 2-year-no-cut announcement.
4) Unlike previous gen, cyclic discussions of console wars will continue long after war is over.
my 2 cents...
djskribbles
Legend
There isn't any easy way to tell if it was a bad launch or not, because there are no numbers for each of the consoles in Europe. Ideally, what you'd do is add up all the sales until units started being readily available on the shop shelves. In a crude way, that would be what you could call the launch demand. It would be the number that, had there been unlimited consoles on sale, would have been sold in the first week or so after launch (not perfect I know, but it's better than nothing). We now know that in the PS3's case, demand was at least 500K across Europe, but what Xbox 360 and Wii would have sold?
To further complicate things, Sony are doing a very good job resupplying, at least according to a source at Game in the UK that spoke to Kotaku. It is therefore hard when they are replenishing so often to get an idea of when that launch allocation has gone.
I don't know the official numbers but PS3 sold out in Turkey ... I've asked one store yesterday that how many PS3s they got and they told me they got 15 and sold out @ launch ...
You can find PS3s at grey market for a long time but if you want to buy PS3s with 2 year warranty you have to wait second shipment , 10th April ... BTW PS3 priced $1050-$1080 inc. taxes in Turkey ...
You can find PS3s at grey market for a long time but if you want to buy PS3s with 2 year warranty you have to wait second shipment , 10th April ... BTW PS3 priced $1050-$1080 inc. taxes in Turkey ...
scooby_dooby
Legend
I don't see how this is possible. It seems at this point that the 360 will continue to outsell PS3 for the remainder of 2007, if we buy that assumption you're looking at a lead of 9-10million going into 2008.
There's no way that could make that up by the end of 2008, to cut that lead in half would be a huge feat.
I do agree with you that PS3 will begin to pick up steam in 2008, but I think it's somewhere around 2009/2010 that the install bases will finally become equal, and going forward PS3 will possibly retake the #1 position by a slim margin.
Of course alot hinges on the success of PS3 in Europe & Japan over the next 2-3 years, and with respects to Japan specifically, how will the Wii throw a wrench into their plans...
scooby_dooby
Legend
Well, Sony will drop the price if they are forced to.
Basically in order for the PS3 to catch the 360 within 18 months it would have to outsell the 360 by around 500,000 units each month. The PS3 is not even selling 400,000 units a month by itself, do any of you expect the PS3 to start outselling the 360 by that many units each and every month just to break even in 18 months which would be almost 2009?
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My guess prediction based on absolutely nothing:
Wii : 50%
PS3: 25%
360: 25%
Why? I am convinced that the Wii has entered, or will be entering consumer consciousness as a toy and not tech. People will buy the Wii regardless of whether they play videogames. People who are hardcore into videogames will buy favorite console x and a Wii. How do I know this? My mother says I'm smart and handsome.
Wii : 50%
PS3: 25%
360: 25%
Why? I am convinced that the Wii has entered, or will be entering consumer consciousness as a toy and not tech. People will buy the Wii regardless of whether they play videogames. People who are hardcore into videogames will buy favorite console x and a Wii. How do I know this? My mother says I'm smart and handsome.
DUALDISASTER
Newcomer
I thought i had a thread like this... . Anyway, it seems you guys forget that if something is great people will drop things to get it. Just look at the wii. I don't think XBOX360 will retain their sells once all cards are on the table. Halo 3 only means things to people that had an xbox before and wii needs more 1st, 2nd, and 3rd party games to keep the steam. By then who knows? IMO i think people will start to see the greener grass and ditch the old tech.
. Anyway, it seems you guys forget that if something is great people will drop things to get it. Just look at the wii. I don't think XBOX360 will retain their sells once all cards are on the table. Halo 3 only means things to people that had an xbox before and wii needs more 1st, 2nd, and 3rd party games to keep the steam. By then who knows? IMO i think people will start to see the greener grass and ditch the old tech.Indeed!
{signed RSX}
Seriously nothing has been shown on ps3 yet which could not be done on as well xb360. In fact, current evidence has been shown which paints the opposite picture. What title do you think will prove this thought process of (ps3> xb360) ?
DUALDISASTER
Newcomer
Indeed!
{signed RSX}
Seriously nothing has been shown on ps3 yet which could not be done on as well xb360. In fact, current evidence has been shown which paints the opposite picture. What title do you think will prove this thought process of (ps3> xb360) ?
I was refering to wii. btw... http://www.diggingtheweb.com/325070950.html
Apologies then.
It seemed your post was describing something quite different.
archangelmorph
Veteran
In the end the point of which console is better than the other is irrelevant...
PS2 proved that by trumping its competitors in sales even though it wasn't the most technologically advanced machine..
Now Sony have a beast of a system which granted may not provide the eye-candy that can truely stand alone as "unrivalled" on any other platform, it does have a legendary brand name in its favour and hardware and services which alone will provide the user with a truely "legendary" experience in its own right..
Whether this experience could be equalled on the 360 I assume only matters to those who familiar enough or care about the console enough to look past the skewed pre-conceptions of the xbox brand (console for PC gamers & FPS lovers) and care to investigate into exactly what the console has to offer, a task made easier by the huge price difference between the platforms but not necessarily a given with regards to all consumers given the vast number of individuals, who's knowledge of the gaming world encompasses only their experience with the PS2 and the word-of-mouth interpretations of all things next-gen from their peers..
The PS3 doesn't have to PROVE that it's better than the Xbox360.. It only has to prove that it's capabilities and potential will be fully untilised throughout the duration of its life-cycle AND it can maintain a steady stream of quality titles, the likes of which are consistent with what made the PS2 so popular in the 1st place..
If it does this, the console will sell well.. How well depends entirely on the successes of their competitors, the evolutions of each platform and how each cater to the diverse needs of the vast multitudes of consumer types who purchase the said hardware..
(My oppinion btw.. )
So my predictions...
Sony will do worse than expect.
In France things don't looks good at all.
From reports situation is better in UK and Spain but it's far from great, I don't know for Germany.
My expectation :
In US BigN and Ms will be close Sony is in a really tough situation here.
In Europe, the situation will be more balanced.
But a lot of player seem to have waited till the ps3 launch to make their choice.
If Ms make a clever price cut I see sony loss a lot of ground...
Wii will have an healthy share of the market, Sony should do better than MS but If MS is agressive with the pricing...
In Japan The market will be shared between Sony and Nintendo.
Wii will keep its lead but in the end the ps3 can gain a slim lead depending of witch games Sony will manage to keep exclusive.
shortly I saw europe as the main battle field and launch is behind us now and I can't see Sony perform anywhere near as well as they did with the ps2.
Sony will do worse than expect.
In France things don't looks good at all.
From reports situation is better in UK and Spain but it's far from great, I don't know for Germany.
My expectation :
In US BigN and Ms will be close Sony is in a really tough situation here.
In Europe, the situation will be more balanced.
But a lot of player seem to have waited till the ps3 launch to make their choice.
If Ms make a clever price cut I see sony loss a lot of ground...
Wii will have an healthy share of the market, Sony should do better than MS but If MS is agressive with the pricing...
In Japan The market will be shared between Sony and Nintendo.
Wii will keep its lead but in the end the ps3 can gain a slim lead depending of witch games Sony will manage to keep exclusive.
shortly I saw europe as the main battle field and launch is behind us now and I can't see Sony perform anywhere near as well as they did with the ps2.
Do we have any information on online sales in France?
edit: 60k it seems
edit: 60k it seems
http://www.zdnet.fr/actualites/informatique/0,39040745,39368135,00.htm?xtor=RSS-1
PS3 predictionS now that it launched in all territories
"... And in unrelated news... In an amazing turn of events, Nintendo buys Sony!! From now on, Sony HDTVs will be Nintony HDTVs and the remote control will be a Wii-like interface. Only 2 buttons, you change channels by moving the remote around. We are unsure whether Nintony HDTVs will come with Mario pre-loaded"
"... And in unrelated news... In an amazing turn of events, Nintendo buys Sony!! From now on, Sony HDTVs will be Nintony HDTVs and the remote control will be a Wii-like interface. Only 2 buttons, you change channels by moving the remote around. We are unsure whether Nintony HDTVs will come with Mario pre-loaded"
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