PS3 predictionS now that it launched in all territories

[Nesh]

This thread is NOT to start a flame war, or to offer an opportunity to different camps to blindly support what they wish it will happen to the console they like or hate.

This thread is made only to post information on the latest launch and what we can predict out of the information.

I made this thread to be a place where various info will be posted that define the course.

Currently I ll post a summary of what I can conclude from current observations.

Now my prediction (starting from my past predictions):

I havent heard much about the PS3 launch in EU, but the limited info I ve seen isnt very promising. It doesnt seem to perform as well as expected.

So how I see things now is that Sony is probably in a vary distasteful and dangerous position. A very unexpected one if we were told 2 years ago how things are today for the console.

The current announcements of exclusives going multiplatform, and the increasing support on the 360 may hurt the future of the PS3. I dont know if Sony can get out of it. It reminds me of Sega during the Saturn days. I expresed worries about it before PS3 was first announced during E3 2005. Reasons for this were:
1) I was expecting Sony to go for a very expensive more powerful and complicated hardware, while MS was going for a cheaper one easier to develop for. Similar to the Saturn vs PS1 times.

2) Because MS was going to release 360 first I was expecting that MS would be able to jump to price cuts sooner. Also they can do it easier than Sony because they are financially in a less riskier position. Sony on the other hand cant jump to huge price drops, and in case MS decides for a price drop, Sony would have been forced to drop the price to compete but at the same time increase risk. Again a similar case to the 32 bit era. Sony announced a price cut for PS1 during E3, SEGA was forced to reduce price which digged up a very dangerous hole of losses. Still sales couldnt improve well

3) Sega made great titles, but lacked third party support. Libraries were unfinished, it used a completely different way of programming, two risk processors that were hard to balance, used quads instead of polygons, and wasnt very firendly to c++ language. Similarly PS3 was going for a multi thread processor.( PS3 lacks the appropriate support as well. It also gets worse versions of multiplatform released games in most cases similar to the Saturn.)

What change this pessimism later into a more optimistic perspective:

1) The expected exclusives remained exclusives and were announced for the PS3. Third party support seemed to be existent greatly

2) Sony announces features such as Linux support, HDD included and Motion Sensing. The last two are very promising features for games and online play. Great decisions

3) Some AAA titles are announced and shown. They are superb looking running real time. 360 didnt show anything similar then except froma title or two.

4) Some target renders raised expectations

5) very positive commenst and support from Japanese developers

6) PS2 reputation increase chances fo success for the PS3

7) Probably there are a few others I cant remember right now

What changed the optimistic to the gradually pessimistic

1) Sony has unexpected production issues

2) Media attacks it continuously (most of the times inexcusably) ruining the image

3) VF5 announced for 360. One game but then rumors emerge for more to come

4) DMC3 announced for 360. Rumors increase for more to follow the same treatment

5) 360 is used as the lead platform. PS3 gets rushed ports

6) Sony cant exploit the xmass period as well as they could have. Lack of titles also makes gamers prefer to wait

7) EU launch. PS3 doesnt sell as well as expected

8)360 gets titles that are mindblowing. Games like Mass Effect reduce the previously expected visual edge differences of the PS3 against the 360. They seem equal

Sony reminds me again of Sega

What might change things:

1)There are still extremely promising titles coming. PS3 still has games such as GT.

2) Some of the rumored exclusives to become multiplatform are still questionable. If they remain esclusives Sony wont be hurt much

3) Sony unlike Sega puts lots of dedication towards creating and improving libraries that will help development

4)Sony';s worldwide studios is a very big 1st party origanisation. Their continuous work and dedication are expected to show games that might keep PS3 high in people's minds.

5) BR-rom production seems to be seeing cost reductions soon. A price drop may come soon

6) Home may bring new opportunities in online sharing and online gaming. It is free and it might draw more people into it.

7) E3 might make a difference if Sony shows the appropriate game library. Killzone, WIpeout, GT and the likes are very important factors if they show a strong image. Other 1st and 2nd party games may help as well. Perhaps anounounced games may surprise just as LBP did

8) Sequels to 360 exclusives released on PS3 may also give PS3 an edge

With all things said I am very uncertain about the console's future currently

 

[Mintmaster]

PS3 isn't going to die or fare anywhere near as badly as Sega Saturn. The only prediciton I will make is the same (obvious) one I made a little while ago:

PS3 will definately not dominate this gen like it did last gen or the one before that. It may squeeze into first place if everything goes Sony's way, but it won't have anywhere near a 60-70% share.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

PS3 didnt have the best day today in europe (meaning it was far from sold out in most countries), so... my PS3 prediction is that unless Sony starts bringing out the big guns (Grand Turismo, MGS, FF, etc) and get a serious price cut, it will die a slow death.

 

[Nesh]

PS3 isn't going to die or fare anywhere near as badly as Sega Saturn. The only prediciton I will make is the same (obvious) one I made a little while ago:

PS3 will definately not dominate this gen like it did last gen or the one before that. It may squeeze into first place if everything goes Sony's way, but it won't have anywhere near a 60-70% share.

Well I was expecting around a similar market share between 360 and PS3 (around 35% for each) in the past. But I am not sure now. It may do worse.

A month or two afterwards may be a better indication.

One thing;s for sure this is the only time in a generation I am considering to buy two consoles. I ll wait a bit more though to decide which I ll get first. If 360 gets FF13 and MGS4 I might get a 360 first. Who knows I might get stuck to that one only too at the end

 

[RobertR1]

You'll see a strong market correction this generation meaning the PS3 will not pick up where the PS2 left off.

Lack of quality games along with a high price tag will have the PS3 losing ground all throughout 2007. Dropping the price now or soon might send a ripple effect that could really mess up the PS3's economics for Sony. While for consumers, a quick price drop might be the fix, it might not be worth it for Sony. The PS brand name should keep that moving along until enough titles come out and pre-planned price drops occur during the life cycle. At this point the PS3 should be clawing back but I hesitate to say that it'll come out ahead by the end of 2010.

 

[speng]

PS3 will begin to gain ground rapidly in late 2008 when the great games have appeared in abundance and a price drop has happened. It will begin to catch MS in late 2008 due to the overall worldwide support.

The advantages that the PS3 has on the X360 will become less apparent as MS introduces a blu-ray add-on for the X360 in mid-2008 after blu-ray is determined as the winner of the next-gen war. Games will still not utilize blu-ray however.

Sony will continue to lose exclusives, no third-party publisher will give up the opportunity to sell to 30 million+ other people. Sony however has mitigated that by buying several companies and making them first and second party and the creation of the Sony WW Studios.

Sony will still sell over 75 million PS3 by 2012 still leading this generation but the lead percent-wise will be much less than in the past. This will be due to both the Wii and X360 growing the market.

Sony will make more profit on the PS3 than the other 2 consoles combined through premuim services, movies, licensing and advertisements. The massive multi-player online games will grow on the PS3 dramatically when the PS3 becomes more affordable.

Speng.

 

[Arwin]

People underestimate the European launch ... the 360 never did very well in Europe. If the initial reports are true, then at launch the PS3 caught up as much as 25% to the 360. I finally have the machine, so I can see for myself that things are really coming together. In fact, I'd venture to say that they got everything together just about right for the PS3 launch. Very nice!

I agree that competition is much better this generation though, for sure. It will be interesting to see how turns out. But this is one mean, lean machine, and I like it a lot. Things are looking ood.

 

[Mintmaster]

Lack of quality games along with a high price tag will have the PS3 losing ground all throughout 2007. Dropping the price now or soon might send a ripple effect that could really mess up the PS3's economics for Sony. While for consumers, a quick price drop might be the fix, it might not be worth it for Sony.

This is definately something that people don't consider enough when talking about a PS3 price drop. Yeah, price is holding it back, but is $400/$500 really that much cheaper than $500/$600?

If Sony sells 8M at the current price and could have sold 10M at the reduced price, they're basically spending $1 billion just to get 2M more consoles out there. Not very cost effective when your target is over 50M!

 

[Cheezdoodles]

This is definately something that people don't consider enough when talking about a PS3 price drop. Yeah, price is holding it back, but is $400/$500 really that much cheaper than $500/$600?

If Sony sells 8M at the current price and could have sold 10M at the reduced price, they're basically spending $1 billion just to get 2M more consoles out there. Not very cost effective when your target is over 50M!

Where did you take you math lessons?

If you drop price by $100, and sell 2 million more consoles, your loosing 2 000 000 * $100 = $200 000 000 more. Which is 200 million.

To get a 1 billion loss, sony could take a $300 price cut for 3.333 million consoles. Or, give away 1.667 million PS3's for free.

 

[Inquisitive_Idiot]

While I wont make any predictions about the future of the PlayStation 3, I would like to know how Sony expects to attract customers with what they are currently offering? The 60GB model costs $699, $200 more than the Xbox 360 does, and $300 when looking at the "Core" system. How exactly does Sony justify a $200 price gap to a consumer when Microsoft offers a seemingly equal product for less money. I know Sony has the next-generation optical medium, Cell, RSX, a bigger hard drive, Linux support and a media card reader, but what do these features do to improve the games on the system?

From day one Sony has been trumpeting the technological superiority of the PlayStation 3 over the Xbox 360, talking about Blu-Ray, Cell, RSX and how these features would allow PlayStaion 3 developers to produce games not possible on the competitor's machines. Blu-ray has the ability to allow developers to store much more content on one disc, and in theory, allow them to create vast and detailed worlds that would not be possible on a single DVD. This is a great feature, with the potential to give PlayStation 3 games the leg up over Xbox 360 ones, however, will we ever see the benefits of this extra space when the majority of multiplatform developers are using the Xbox 360 as the lead platform? So far, Gears of War is the best looking next-generation console game out bar none, furthermore, some multiplatform titles run better on the 360! Even when looking at future PlayStation 3 titles like Ratchet and Clank, Drake and MGS4 we can see that future Xbox 360 titles like Mass Effect and Halo 3 offer comparable visuals. More importantly, we have yet to see how any of this supposed power will relate to making a meaningful effect on gameplay. I am not saying it wont, just that Sony has not demonstrated how paying $200 more is going to give you a better experience than the guy paying $499 for an Xbox 360.

Another loss for Sony is that recently some franchises have been making their way over to the Xbox after being exclusively for the PlayStation last generation. Virtua Fighter, Devil May Cry and Ace Combat are recent ones, with MGS 4 and FF XIII rumored to be coming to the Xbox 360 as well! If a big hitter like Metal Gear Solid is released for the Xbox 360, then that would be a significant blow to Sony's catalog of exclusive games for the system. While I think that the recent talk about Sony loosing games like Ace Combat to the competitor has been overstated, and that it probably is not very likely that Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy XIII will be released for the Xbox, I do find it important to note that Sony must be loosing mind share among the mass market and developers.

On line play is another area that Sony needs to buck up with in order to start providing a comparable alternative to Xbox Live!. They have a free system, but from what I understand is that it is not fully integrated to the core of the console. What I mean is that Xbox Live! is ubiquitous throughout the entire system! When I turn on my Xbox 360, I am logged in as Inquisitive, and can view my recent achievements, who I have played with, friends, etc. I can go and play a game and still have my name with all of my information, and people can send me invites to play a different game with them without interrupting what I am currently doing. Sony needs a standardized system that extends throughout the entire console, without it, the current setup looks rushed and is an inadequate answer to Xbox Live!

In conclusion, Sony has not provided an adequate reason for their system to cost $200 more than Microsoft's, furthermore, they are lacking in severals key areas such as software and online functionality. In all, it makes the product looked rushed and inferior despite being released a year later and costing $200 dollars more.

 

[RobertR1]

Where did you take you math lessons?

If you drop price by $100, and sell 2 million more consoles, your loosing 2 000 000 * $100 = $200 000 000 more. Which is 200 million.

To get a 1 billion loss, sony could take a $300 price cut for 3.333 million consoles. Or, give away 1.667 million PS3's for free.

He's stating that if you drop the price now and sell 10 mil with the new price vs 8mil with the exisiting price your overall loss = 1billion.

 

[Mintmaster]

To get a 1 billion loss, sony could take a $300 price cut for 3.333 million consoles. Or, give away 1.667 million PS3's for free.

Or a $100 price drop on 10 million consoles

(Thank you, RobertR1, for putting in an iota of thought when reading my post.)

 

[Mintmaster]

While I wont make any predictions about the future of the PlayStation 3, I would like to know how Sony expects to attract customers with what they are currently offering?

I dunno, by hoping people are willing to shell out that kind of cash without considering any one of the points you made in that post? The funny thing is that I used to think Sony was right in that assumption.

 

[Carl B]

A price cut right now would be too risky a move for a division that is trying to get back to a neutral income level by the end of this coming fiscal year. Better to wait for the cost of the console to have come down a bit, and for more software to be on shelves. Besides, they have time to wait - the worst that happens for not having a comparable install base to 360 is that 3rd party developers go non-exclusive. Aaand... since that's already basically come to pass, no need to go into panic-price-install base mode when the efforts would basically be wasted in trying to prevent a 3rd party sea-change that has already occured. Their efforts are better spent now on a more cautious/conservative approach emphasizing their own tools and software offerings.

 

[speng]

If you think about it for a minute. Who are the people buying PS3 and X360s now?

- Hard core gamers
- Affluent folks, or middle class that can afford it
- A/V Enthusiasts for the PS3 (blu-ray)

The average gamer is not going to shell out $400+ for a game machine.

Most people who get the system also want to play it on an HDTV.

Dropping the price without enough of the type of games for the average gamer and stellar games does not help Sony. I can see people bringing up a large console installed base, but this is not a sprint it's a marathon. Those gamers 15-18 who have PS2s now, will be converting to PS3 in 2-3 years when they start making their own money, just based on Sony loyalty.

Reasonable installed base which covers the entire world and the profits from other parts of the division can keep things going well for a while until the games come about.

Another thing to keep in mind is that, unlike last generation where most of the money came from game sales and licensing, there are other means of getting money. Almost on par or more than previous generations, the micro-transactions, advertisement and premium services will be huge this generation in 12-18 months. The PS3 has absolutely everything it needs to take advantage of all this built in.

Speng.

 

[Inquisitive_Idiot]

Dropping the price without enough of the type of games for the average gamer and stellar games does not help Sony.

To an extent I agree, the price of the Playstation 3 is a major problem when looking at the mass market. What I think Sony failed to do was justify the $600 price to the people who are currently buying the Xbox 360's. As I mentioned earlier, Sony did not launch with a complete answer to the Xbox 360 in terms of software or functionality. They added cool features like Linux and web browsing, but forgot about the more important things like a standardized internet service and dashboard functionality.

Those gamers 15-18 who have PS2s now, will be converting to PS3 in 2-3 years when they start making their own money, just based on Sony loyalty.

I doubt this! With the way the Wii is selling around the world, one must assume that it has already begun to eat away at current PlayStation 2 users. In two to three years time, I imagine Wii will have a dominant lead in the console market if the current trends continue, not to forget that Xbox 360 will probably still be cheaper than the PlayStation 3.

 

[Jesus2006]

PS3 didnt have the best day today in europe (meaning it was far from sold out in most countries), so... my PS3 prediction is that unless Sony starts bringing out the big guns (Grand Turismo, MGS, FF, etc) and get a serious price cut, it will die a slow death.

Does it need to be sold out on day one?

The Xbox 360 wasn't outsold for a whole two weeks despite extreme supply shortages. I could have bought one 2 weeks after its release (however only Core since everyone wanted a premium, that's why i got mine from ebay + 100€ more expensive ...).

In contrast to the 360 launch, the supply for the PS3 is not limited right now - there are more than enough consoles out there. And many were preordered long before the launch date (also from last years preorder leftover).

It would just not be realistic to expect everything getting sold out.

 

[-tkf-]

Since i got my little PS3 3 days ago i may have sold another 2 of them. First one was a racing fan, 5 minutes of the F1 demo and he was asking where to get (he called me again last night and asked where to buy it).

Second one was a never ever owning Console man that i played a few HiDef clips for, showed him how to import CD´s and... a little bit of GT:HD. He could see this console playing his movies, holding his pictures and be the one unit that was connected to the TV.

I think sony has something to prove (not to me i think it dwarfs the competition out there in everything) but maybe the word of mouth more good games and a slight pricedrop will help it. Xmas 2007 will be very very important for the future of gaming.

Ohh and the 3rd one that might end up picking one up asked the same question as the other 2 "does it play PS2 games"..

 

[speng]

I doubt this! With the way the Wii is selling around the world, one must assume that it has already begun to eat away at current PlayStation 2 users. In two to three years time, I imagine Wii will have a dominant lead in the console market if the current trends continue, not to forget that Xbox 360 will probably still be cheaper than the PlayStation 3.

Wii and PS3 in my opinion are not competing. Wii to me is not next-gen, it's a different way to play games (this is not a bash on Wii).

Wii does not offer the generational leap in graphics and physics, nor does it have the same micro-transaction capabilities.

People buying Wii today, will buy either PS3 or X360 in a couple of years. They get vastly different visual and audio experiences from PS3 and somewhat for the X360.

It will not be an easy road for PS3 but they have all the cards, they just have to play them right.

Speng.

 

[Platon]

I still think that the Playstation brand is huge with the biggest problem for Sony right now being its price. With a price cut things will get for sure better because at the current price it is out of reach even for hardcore gamers. Remember that previously hardcore gamers were paying $300 to get a console at launch so even for them this is a steep step up.

The problem of course could be the too little too late, but for now they indeed have time. In the US the xbox might actually take the lead and keep it, however, Europe is Sonyland, despite the not so impressive launch and with a price cut and great games they should be able to recover and outsell the 360, unless it picks up significantly in the near future...