Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[eastmen]

Why they need to be "duct-taped, enhanced versions of the current hardware"?

Unless one is using a very lossy version of the term, they dont need to be just that, I mean, IBM is still making new PPC CPUs, Cell (like?) is still evolving, ATI and Nvidea are both making GPUs that are BC... (althought some aditional work may be needed to match the costum specs of 360/PS3).

They should be able to deliver a BC console tthat is both significant more powerfull, yet can be released at a significantly lower price/consumption point, low-mid end ATI/NVIDEA GPUs (4650/9600s) already have much more power and performance/power ration than xenus/RSX and are much cheaper than those (original price) (evan the low end, 4350/9400s, should be near that).

They may not be the equivalent to a high end PC, meybe not even to a mid-high end (more mid than high end) one, but that is very diferent from "duct-taped, enhanced versions of the current hardware".

Thats how I feel.

There is no reason why MS can't just take waternoose and enhance and expand it. Faster clocks , mabye double the cores , ooe and perhaps more cache. Still have a tiny chip on 40nm or even 32nm and keep the bc with the original waternoose.

Then they can take a gpu with a target of 40nm instead of 90nm. Base it on the xenos but update it for dx 11 functions and push it out the door.

You'd most likely have a very small cpu (the xenos was already small ) and a relatively large gpu. They can then add in lots of ram which would really make a diffrence in the graphics. I think 8 gigs would put it on par with high end computers of 2009/10. make one model at $300 with no hardrive and perhaps 64 gigs of ssd memory for saves and dlc and what not. One model at $400 with a 320 gig drive (should be cheap by 2010/2011). We already saw with the 360 that if you hit first and offer enhancments from the last gen gamers will flock to it and gamers buy alot of games. If MS launches early again they can most likely gain alot of that group again and that would help them stay a float for the first year or so. I'm not sure how Sony would fair as they jumped in a year later at a $100/$200 higher price point , some of their hardcore gamers may be put off by it.

I don't know how much a system like that would cost , but it may be cheaper than the original xbox 360. If they aim for 40nm they'd have 40/32/22 most likely like so far this gen has 90nm /65nm and most likely 40nm. I don't know what comes after 22nm. But i'm sure there will be something .

If then during the next generation the advanment of micron processes drop off and don't budge we may see smaller leaps in future generation and most likely a lengthening of the generations. But I think we have one more left with a sizable jump.

 

[Urian]

The only reason why Nintendo has made a non-HD console is related to their current strategy, they are doing the same one that the transistor radios made to the furniture radios 60 years ago, at the beginning transistor radios had less sound quality than the furnitures ones but they were targeted to non-consumers.

I am sure that Nintendo has enough money for develop a new technology console that can compete in the future, the cost of developing a console if I am not wrong is arond $1b and Nintendo has several times this money in the bank for starting a new development instead of the duck tape.

 

[grandmaster]

I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. Wii is referred to as a 'duct-taped' console as it is essentially a GameCube with faster GPU and CPU. This is what I mean with regards to 360 and PS3 - same basic architecture, but with more computational and graphical grunt. Whether that's enhanced versions of the same chips, or backwards-compatible newer chips isn't really the point.

My question is simply down to the impact, advantages and likelihood of enhancing previous generation games using newer hardware. I mean, I love to play Black on my Xbox 360 via BC - but I look at the bullshots and I'd kill to be playing the game at 720p.

 

[Blackraven]

Has RSX hit 65nm already (or not yet)???

Anyways, for the upcoming PS4, it would be better IMHO if they stick with Cell and Nvidia. I say this because it would be easier for devs to make games (with a setup that they can easily adjust with) and that this would be beneficial for B.C.

My predictions:
-Cell2 (the famed 2 PPE/32 SPE processor scheduled to launch starting 2010)
I'm thinking that this will be at 32nm process node by 2011/2012 which is the supposed launch date for the PS4 (since Sony and the consortium have stated that they will start producing 45nm Cell units for the PS3 starting this year).
-New Graphics Card from NVIDIA
I don't know how fast NVIDIA improves on their process node technology (I'm guessing every year perhaps) but if there is any indication, the GPU that will be used for the PS4 would have a process node that will follow the card that it is based on (ie. like how RSX was based on the 7800 which used 90nm process node at that time in year 2006). Hopefully, since NVIDIA is now at 55 nm (based on Geforce GTX 295 timetable) and if they adhere to upgrade to a new process node every year, then we can obviously expect it to begin at 40 nm

That's all I can imagine atm. Now as for stuff such as RAM, optical drive, physical storage and other stuff, well I can't make a guess so I'll leave it up to you guys (and to Sony) regarding those things

 

[Squilliam]

I was wondering how the latest CoreI7's stack up in terms of performance per watt compared to the Power PC, Cell and AMD cores? I believe that the next generation hardware is more likely to be limited by their TDPs and not their die sizes. What are the most power efficient architectures the Big 3 could choose.

The current Xbox 360/PS3 CPUs are a little raw. They don't seem to have much in the way of power management and they are downright dirty when compared to your standard computer equipment for wasting power in idle/semi idle states and noisey to boot. Surely in the next generation we will see some form of power management?

 

[Urian]

I was wondering how the latest CoreI7's stack up in terms of performance per watt compared to the Power PC, Cell and AMD cores? I believe that the next generation hardware is more likely to be limited by their TDPs and not their die sizes. What are the most power efficient architectures the Big 3 could choose.

The current Xbox 360/PS3 CPUs are a little raw. They don't seem to have much in the way of power management and they are downright dirty when compared to your standard computer equipment for wasting power in idle/semi idle states and noisey to boot. Surely in the next generation we will see some form of power management?

Aren´t Core I7s around 110W in power consumption?

 

[Squilliam]

Aren´t Core I7s around 110W in power consumption?

Thats an early example, when the process matures the power consumption will be much lower. The other important part is the inbuilt power management which next generation must have if they aren't to be labeled power hogs. Using ~80W idle and 105W whilst in use is unacceptable in todays environment and incredibly wasteful of power.

 

[shiznit]

Thats an early example, when the process matures the power consumption will be much lower. The other important part is the inbuilt power management which next generation must have if they aren't to be labeled power hogs. Using ~80W idle and 105W whilst in use is unacceptable in todays environment and incredibly wasteful of power.

says who? you think the average 360 owner gives a crap about how many watts his xbox uses? he just wants to play his games and not get the RROD, as long as the machine is cooled effectively this whole power consumption business is overblown imo (obviously the two are related but 100w isn't gonna kill any consoles). Transistor budget is going to be a much bigger deal, that will effect the bottom line directly.

 

[tuna]

says who? you think the average 360 owner gives a crap about how many watts his xbox uses? he just wants to play his games and not get the RROD, as long as the machine is cooled effectively this whole power consumption business is overblown imo (obviously the two are related but 100w isn't gonna kill any consoles). Transistor budget is going to be a much bigger deal, that will effect the bottom line directly.

I think power consumption is more important from a cooling perspective. If you have a processor that draws 100 watts constantly you need some pretty efficient cooling system that cost a lot of money and might have other drawbacks (such as noice).

 

[Squilliam]

I think power consumption is more important from a cooling perspective. If you have a processor that draws 100 watts constantly you need some pretty efficient cooling system that cost a lot of money and might have other drawbacks (such as noice).

Its doubtful that the E.U. government would tolerate such inefficency from a console, especially with the environmental concerns which they take very seriously.

 

[obonicus]

Its doubtful that the E.U. government would tolerate such inefficency from a console, especially with the environmental concerns which they take very seriously.

I'm not sure what you're saying. Are you suggesting that the EU is going to ban electronics that consume over 100W? Or electronics that consume a lot of power while in 'idle state', however you define it?

 

[Squilliam]

I'm not sure what you're saying. Are you suggesting that the EU is going to ban electronics that consume over 100W? Or electronics that consume a lot of power while in 'idle state', however you define it?

Im not saying they are definately going to ban the sale of electronics but they wouldn't look upon it too favourably. Out of all your home entertainment electronics the PS3 and Xbox 360 stand out as devices which use a LOT of energy when they remain idle.

 

[obonicus]

Im not saying they are definately going to ban the sale of electronics but they wouldn't look upon it too favourably. Out of all your home entertainment electronics the PS3 and Xbox 360 stand out as devices which use a LOT of energy when they remain idle.

I'm genuinely curious: how much does an HTPC consume when it's on but not playing anything, aka 'idle'? Because I assume that's what you're talking about, not standby. Most other electronics, such as TVs don't even have an equivalent 'idle' state, do they?

 

[Blazkowicz]

I imagine the EU could regulate an actual 0/1 power switch.
If you had to ban wasteful devices, why not ban HDTV and consoles altogether

 

[obonicus]

I imagine the EU could regulate an actual 0/1 power switch.
If you had to ban wasteful devices, why not ban HDTV and consoles altogether

That's what I was thinking. And my 60Gb US PS3 has a 1/0 switch.

 

[Sound_Card]

And what would stop MS other than MS from using Cell 2?

 

[holsty101]

Sony?

 

[Sound_Card]

Sony?

And IBM can't let them use it?

 

[fehu]

Sony?

the same Sony tha stopped MS from using cell's R&D to build the xenon?

in my opinion will be simply the common sense that will stop them

 

[grandmaster]

And what would stop MS other than MS from using Cell 2?

The question is maybe, why would they want to? They've got an acknowledged advantage in terms of development tools that would surely need a massive amount of re-engineering to work with Cell.