Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Developer complexity is going to be an Achille's Heel going forwards, and hardware becomes powerful enough to allow for good abstraction without crippling the hardware.

You want to sell a gaming console to the customers,and not to the devs.
The xb/ps3 are failure because of the sales,not because the complexity of the development.
if the leading machine has to programmed in assembly it will be supported by everyone,because it make money.

The complexity of the development has to be on a very low priority level.The first is the price.
 
You want to sell a gaming console to the customers,and not to the devs.
The xb/ps3 are failure because of the sales,not because the complexity of the development.
if the leading machine has to programmed in assembly it will be supported by everyone,because it make money.

The complexity of the development has to be on a very low priority level.The first is the price.
Not always true. There's a chicken and egg situation. The console launches with whatever launch software you have. Gamers won't buy your console without good games. If the developres can't extract decent performance from your console, it's going to look naff. If you have the market to yourself, or are riding a wave of popularity from a previous generation (like PS2, which launched off the back of PS1, which got where it was because it was easy to develop for) then you can wait until the developers learn the ropes. But if your rival appears looking so much better just because it has easy-access devtools, gamers aren't going to care what your specs under the hood are. They'll buy the machine that plays the better games, all other things being equal. And if you drop the price of your console, you risk making it look like the cheap, less capable version. Doesn't look as good (because it's hard to extract performance from) and it costs less, so it's the cheap console for those who can't afford the proper one. From there it spirals downwards.

It's a balancing act, with gamers buying into the experiences on offer, and very few buying into the specs alone. With current competition ease of development is a key factor, such that everyone recognises this and is promoting ease of development. Who in the industry is saying horsepower is most important and they'd happily increase development times and complexity in order to get more performance?
 
Do we really need so much ram? As today, no game or engine uses more than 3 Gb total (video+main ram), without even much optimization. Eventually we will reach 8 GB, but i think that's so far away in the future that it's better to invest that power/money to improve other aspect of the console.
4 GB of assets, with virtual streaming, are a lot and they will be expensive.
 
Do we really need so much ram? As today, no game or engine uses more than 3 Gb total (video+main ram), without even much optimization.

That's really only the case because developers are being held back by 32 bit Windows users. If PC developers didn't have to worry about all their potential customers who haven't upgraded to a 64bit version of Windows they would certainly use more RAM. You're confusing a technical limitation with a developer choice.
 
IBM re-engineered Cell memory controller for DDR2, Sony could do the same go with 8 GB DDR3. It should matched the current XDR implementation in terms of bandwidth.

If they go with PVR TBDR, maybe they can get away with using DDR3 too for video memory, another 8 GB DDR3 there wouldn't be too expensive in 2013-14 time frame.


we don't need slow backward ass ram in here. Only XDR RAM will do. 8GB of it split between main and video memory, a 32 spu cell 4ppe, 16x blu ray drive with 100 GB storage capacity and the lastest tip top Nvidia card.

get on with sony.
 
What a truly random demand! Why exactly do we need 4GBs system RAM and 4GBs VRAM? What's your technical justification?
 
because the ps4 is meant to last another 10 years. PCs would have 8 gb ram within 10 years too.

Uhh... PCs will have a little more than 8GB of RAM in 10 years... :oops:

Actually 8GB is fairly standard already. By 2021 I'd say we'll be looking at 64-128GB as the norm.
 
I can see a justification for more RAM to run non-gaming applications and services, even multitask them.

Probably won't happen but the war for the living room is very much on, with all kinds of streaming services and set top boxes and now a new entrant, tablets.

When this generation started, nobody anticipated how important Netflix and other video streaming services were going to be. There may be new features and services that arise after the next-gen launches. More RAM would provide the flexibility to support these new things as well as better performance for gaming and all existing non-gaming functions.
 
because the ps4 is meant to last another 10 years. PCs would have 8 gb ram within 10 years too.
Disproven by the past 2 generations at least, which have had grossly under the RAM standards of PCs for most of their lives. You also don't explain why the 4/4GB split. Why is 4GB of VRAM needed, especially when your requesting XDR2.
 
Not always true. There's a chicken and egg situation. The console launches with whatever launch software you have. Gamers won't buy your console without good games. If the developres can't extract decent performance from your console, it's going to look naff.

That is the point when you need few internal developer team.
And anyway, the starting library of a console is small,because there is no user base-so you can count only with the internal teams and with a few external ones.
From the other side,you can not count with the multi-platform games to define your platform -you need genuine ones (like the LBP on the ps3) to be able to sell YOUR console-and not just to be a cheap alternative to run the new COD.

And the cheap is not just the sticker price-the WII has been sold with huge profit,tha xb/ps3 with huge loss on each unit.
 
Why only 8 SPUs? Why not 16 or 32 or 64? And I think you have an exaggerated sense of ARM cpu performance here.

If going with 8 cores A15 3.5GHz(almost same performance 4 cores intell at same clock except Sandy Bridge) + 8 SPUs for BC? ;)

See some pages ago almost talk to death about.
 
But if COd looks worse on your platform because the devs can't use the hardware, you are a disadvantage. The cross-platform titles are the bread and butter of a platform.

As I said before, what industry people are there out there saying they'd take a harder to work with hardware over easy development? Even the old-skool hardcore coders like ERP recognise the business logistics of game development and how esoteric hardware is an unnecessary cost with no particular advantage beyond the coder's hobby interest.
 
For the ram there is a 30 years old rule:you has to be able to read/process each byte from the ram on each frame.
So,with 8 gigs of ram the min bandwith is 400 gigs/sec.
It needs a 256 bit wide XDR2 memory interface.
 
You want to sell a gaming console to the customers,and not to the devs.
The xb/ps3 are failure because of the sales,not because the complexity of the development.
if the leading machine has to programmed in assembly it will be supported by everyone,because it make money.

The complexity of the development has to be on a very low priority level.The first is the price.


We have an interesting point here, because PS2 is known and notorious that it was a nightmare to work at the beginning and the developers did not shy away from investing heavily due to the great acceptance by gamers.

I think there should be a balance between the two paradigms for win-win model and maybe the PSOne(psvita too?) was the most conciliatory of all, combining ease of work for developers with strong appeal for his proposal to pretty well accepted by consumers (performance, innovation, great marketing plan, ported games etc.).
 
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The point had nothing to do with latency or framerate.
I was simply saying having a large number of flops does not a good CPU for games make.
A good CPU for games should efficiently run game code, without placing an undue burden on development. Because any thing that makes it difficult to produce good code, cuts down on the amount of iteration that can take place in a game, and indirectly impacts quality. If a processor is esoteric in design there had better be a big payoff to justify it.

The meta point is more at the level of you can't look at parts of a game in isolation, a game isn't a collection of technologies and assets, it's a whole. And you have to understand the development process when your looking at designing "good" hardware, as much as the pure technology. Increasing the burden on engineering has to have a payoff of it' simply not worthwhile. You have to be somewhat pragmatic when it comes to development on large teams.

... (More interesting points) ...

I see what you're getting at however I'd have to argue the point that the hardware architectural design in many ways runs orthogonal to the development work done by the vast majority of your programming team.

In your average game company you'll be looking at say ~10-30% of your code team being the super-elite low-level-headed coders with the rest made up of a range of talented high-level system/gameplay-authors.
Now if you're licensing your engine (UE3, CryENGINE 3 etc...) your low-level guys will be gutting & refitting the engine code, optimising for the specifics of your game as well as laying the foundations of additional systems required; SPU'ifying them, writing core library modules for heavy-lifting processes etc. that all need to be fast. These are all areas of your code where bottlenecks are expected to appear & they're all handled by the kind of coder whom, whether given an esoteric Cell or a generic Xenon, will be able to tame the beast & make it sing.

Granted iteration in games development is a massively important factor towards overall game quality however I'd argue that it's generally the flexibility and expressive-power of your high-level tools and technology that make up the lion's share of priority in this area & code iteration on improving and developing the high-level systems (such as kismet/FlowGraph-style visual scripting systems for example) has very little relevance IMO towards the specifics of the lower-level engine system/module implementations with respect to the choice of target hardware.

This will be even more evident next-gen IMO as I fully expect the proliferation of middle-ware engine technology to explode and the traditional focus of many development studios on proprietary solutions to all but disappear.

So in this light I don't particularly agree that their will be an impetus on hardware vendors to target best-case performance for worst-case code in their designs as ultimately, it'll probably be that 10-30% of your run-time code, written by your core engine & rendering guys, that makes up the ~70-90% of your processing load at run-time.

& with companies like Epic & Crytek having large-scale teams of dedicated veteran low-level coders serving your needs in this area, they'll be looking to maximise the potential of the hardware provided in order to supply the most competitive engine solutions to market & not specifically target average-case performance trade-offs due to the kinds of production restrictions imposed on developments teams with time-limited schedules and finance-limited budgets.

This is how I see things at least...
 
I think smaller discs would be viable. It'll mean that if they want to produce a small sized console right from the start they don't have to fit it around a larger optical disc drive and it'd help with piracy concerns if no media is available at that size. If they don't start with a smaller sized drive they could easily transition to it if they desire at some point in the consoles life cycle and drop backwards compatibility support.

I don't really see many games needing 50GB of space, I think 24GB ought to be more than enough space for anyone.
 
I see what you're getting at however I'd have to argue the point that the hardware architectural design in many ways runs orthogonal to the development work done by the vast majority of your programming team.

In your average game company you'll be looking at say ~10-30% of your code team being the super-elite low-level-headed coders with the rest made up of a range of talented high-level system/gameplay-authors.
Now if you're licensing your engine (UE3, CryENGINE 3 etc...) your low-level guys will be gutting & refitting the engine code, optimising for the specifics of your game as well as laying the foundations of additional systems required; SPU'ifying them, writing core library modules for heavy-lifting processes etc. that all need to be fast. These are all areas of your code where bottlenecks are expected to appear & they're all handled by the kind of coder whom, whether given an esoteric Cell or a generic Xenon, will be able to tame the beast & make it sing.

Granted iteration in games development is a massively important factor towards overall game quality however I'd argue that it's generally the flexibility and expressive-power of your high-level tools and technology that make up the lion's share of priority in this area & code iteration on improving and developing the high-level systems (such as kismet/FlowGraph-style visual scripting systems for example) has very little relevance IMO towards the specifics of the lower-level engine system/module implementations with respect to the choice of target hardware.

This will be even more evident next-gen IMO as I fully expect the proliferation of middle-ware engine technology to explode and the traditional focus of many development studios on proprietary solutions to all but disappear.

So in this light I don't particularly agree that their will be an impetus on hardware vendors to target best-case performance for worst-case code in their designs as ultimately, it'll probably be that 10-30% of your run-time code, written by your core engine & rendering guys, that makes up the ~70-90% of your processing load at run-time.

& with companies like Epic & Crytek having large-scale teams of dedicated veteran low-level coders serving your needs in this area, they'll be looking to maximise the potential of the hardware provided in order to supply the most competitive engine solutions to market & not specifically target average-case performance trade-offs due to the kinds of production restrictions imposed on developments teams with time-limited schedules and finance-limited budgets.

This is how I see things at least...


Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I am tiny to understand the dimensions of the issues you are addressing,I presume you are talking about third developers engines,but would be a not desirable standardization of engines when they offer easily workable/user-friendly/a high-level thing that will take off some innovation in engines with certain specificities and differential we see today (Uncharted, Killzone, God of War 3 ... deferred rendering...imagine if they going at same aproach/standartization in UE3 engine?)?

If such standardization occurs (absolutely) Im pray here that occurs something like (i know many things evolved since that) game Half Life 1 in 1998 that was based on the Quake engine but rewritten in more than 70% (I read it in computergameworld) to provide differential over the "mainstream" games engines.
 
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Considering the impact of the iPad, the direction of the WiiU, comments stating that the Sony and MS will try to approach a larger market, and the number of development houses being shut down due to the high cost of developing games, I just don't a traditional console in the future.

As a matter of fact, the WiiU might be the last traditional console we will see.

I see MS going for some type of hybrid console/tablet. Which will end up being about two to maybe four times more powerful than the 360 and will employ cloud gaming.

And Sony? A company with no ideas. They have the VITA, they are coming out with a tablet, so where does that leave their next console? What technology can they add to it to make games exciting? A system like the WiiU or some type of console/portable hybrid would confuse customers. So Sony might be forced to come out with something more traditional. But at the same time, whatever they offer would have to be affordable. I just dont see Sony doing a powerful PS4. They might just make box for cloud gaming and streaming their content.
 
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