Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Love_In_Rio]

Not everyone, but some will. As the added value gets greater for a lesser premium, it will sway more to spend the extra on a new PC as opposed to a console. I'm not saying it will make a market changing difference, but its bound to have some impact. If for no other reason that people are buying new PC's for the sake of having a PC and then finding out its actually more powerful for gaming than the console they were considering getting.

I take your point about point of entry price though, as I said, PC's will never get to the $200 range, at least not something thats capable of playing games decently so to the masses that won't upgrade and who simply want a gaming machine at a low price, consoles will largely remain the first choice.

I agree here. It´s being a longer time with each new pc gpu generation. How long has last the G80 generation ?. And this trend will be worse in the future. If GT300 is a great performance leap with previous generation as rumoured it will be a huge chip for a long time and consoles will have to look to smaller versions to put into. So GT300 ( or ATI R800 or whatever ) will be in the PCs for long this time and this will avoid the problem that took me to pass from PC to consoles: i was fed up with updating my PC every six months. Many ex PC gamers will go back to their roots.

And this is probably the point in acquiring Larrabee for a next gen console, the possibility to have a smaller chip thanks to Intel processes that can compete better with the future PC big boys.

 

[silhouette]

Next generation happens only when there is no console package on the market with a price higher than 200$ for both MS and Sony. It is amazing that MS can still sell Elite at 400$ which is the launch price. It does not make sense economically to launch a next-gen console (which costs a lot more) while you can sell the currect tech (with profits) at the same price.

Btw, between xbox->360 and Ps2->Ps3, there is not only a nice bump in speed but also a nice bump in the feature set as well (full floating-point GPU pipelines as an example which improves quality significantly). Without DX11 picking up, I do not see a same feature bump going from 360 to next-box or Ps3 to Ps4.

However, even with both of points in mind, 2013 sounds too far though... I think end of 2011 is a more realistic time-frame for a next-gen launch.

 

[pc999]

So are you or pc999 suggesting console sales are going to decrease because as time rolls on, even though consoles get cheaper, the performance and value of PCs is increasing so much, everyone will want a PC instead?

Personally I didnt said that but once you make me think in that, yes.

Think about it, every person that bought a cheap PC with a Dual Core and a 4650 (so the last six months at least), had bought a cheap PC much more powerfull than a 360. Given how much litle exclusives there is and that you can play with a 360 controller on the PC, why should most people buy a 360? If you take in account that many will buy (upgrade in worst case) a new PC anyway.

Like I said currently I have no reason to have a 360/PS3 unless I really wanted on of the few exclusives (Halo/KZ/LBP, any other not timed?).

The wii is a bit diferent but really handicaped making one losing many good things from the HD gen.

You can play almost anything unless you buy a cheap laptop, plus a big bonus (performance/functionality and even online). Althought laptops and netbooks are most popular than ever (still the latter barely can do the basic productivity).

Also I said I do want a new console before 2013 because:

1- I dont think current gen is powerfull enought, but in 2011 it should be quite cheap to make a console that would be cheap and give me the performance I want.

2- Innovation in games are mostly bound by controls and the like and till today only wii had been sucefful with periphericals, meybe with motion+ we will see mass adoption, but I doubt that we could see as much interest from both gamers and dev to make such in 360/PS3.

But I do agree that none will be rushing a new gen console, like I said before, this gen is going better than any other (globaly) and there is much money to be made (Wii) or recuperated (XB+360/PS3). So this are mostly my hopes.

 

[Rangers]

Personally I didnt said that but once you make me think in that, yes.

Think about it, every person that bought a cheap PC with a Dual Core and a 4650 (so the last six months at least), had bought a cheap PC much more powerfull than a 360. Given how much litle exclusives there is and that you can play with a 360 controller on the PC, why should most people buy a 360? If you take in account that many will buy (upgrade in worst case) a new PC anyway.

Like I said currently I have no reason to have a 360/PS3 unless I really wanted on of the few exclusives (Halo/KZ/LBP, any other not timed?).

The wii is a bit diferent but really handicaped making one losing many good things from the HD gen.

You can play almost anything unless you buy a cheap laptop, plus a big bonus (performance/functionality and even online). Althought laptops and netbooks are most popular than ever (still the latter barely can do the basic productivity).

Also I said I do want a new console before 2013 because:

1- I dont think current gen is powerfull enought, but in 2011 it should be quite cheap to make a console that would be cheap and give me the performance I want.

2- Innovation in games are mostly bound by controls and the like and till today only wii had been sucefful with periphericals, meybe with motion+ we will see mass adoption, but I doubt that we could see as much interest from both gamers and dev to make such in 360/PS3.

But I do agree that none will be rushing a new gen console, like I said before, this gen is going better than any other (globaly) and there is much money to be made (Wii) or recuperated (XB+360/PS3). So this are mostly my hopes.

You're the minority, PC (packaged) gaming is become less and less popular, not moreso. That is why you see myriad former PC devs like Epic now focused on the console.

Also, very few retail PC's come with anything but integrated graphics..the PC's people buy from Wal Mart and Best Buy are integrated graphics, unless those people choose to buy a gfx card, the vast majority of PC's arent gaming capable. You mentioned the 4650, but it's an aftermarket card, not something Joe Average gets with his prebuilt PC. Especially when you get near the $400 range you are only getting IGP...

 

[Rangers]

Next generation happens only when there is no console package on the market with a price higher than 200$ for both MS and Sony. It is amazing that MS can still sell Elite at 400$ which is the launch price. It does not make sense economically to launch a next-gen console (which costs a lot more) while you can sell the currect tech (with profits) at the same price.

Btw, between xbox->360 and Ps2->Ps3, there is not only a nice bump in speed but also a nice bump in the feature set as well (full floating-point GPU pipelines as an example which improves quality significantly). Without DX11 picking up, I do not see a same feature bump going from 360 to next-box or Ps3 to Ps4.

However, even with both of points in mind, 2013 sounds too far though... I think end of 2011 is a more realistic time-frame for a next-gen launch.

2011 is my guess for MS. Sony is more of a wild card, their system is a year newer, and their thinking is harder to gauge.

I think it's clear 09 is out for MS next gen. So 010 would be absolute earliest, but doesnt make sense due to various factors. So I look at 010/011/012 with 011 being the sweet spot..

Personally I think MS should delay their next gen as long as possible though..

 

[liolio]

2011 is my guess for MS. Sony is more of a wild card, their system is a year newer, and their thinking is harder to gauge.

I think it's clear 09 is out for MS next gen. So 010 would be absolute earliest, but doesnt make sense due to various factors. So I look at 010/011/012 with 011 being the sweet spot..

Personally I think MS should delay their next gen as long as possible though..

I agree ith your figures, especially as I think that Ms has a lot of interest in keeping the 360/PC dynamic. No new xbox could put pressure on the take over of dx11 and thus the relevance of 7 in the gaming community.

 

[Squilliam]

I agree ith your figures, especially as I think that Ms has a lot of interest in keeping the 360/PC dynamic. No new xbox could put pressure on the take over of dx11 and thus the relevance of 7 in the gaming community.

But if the Xbox evolution is coming out say in 2011, wouldn't we be looking at DX12 or 12.5 type hardware?

 

[almighty]

But if the Xbox evolution is coming out say in 2011, wouldn't we be looking at DX12 or 12.5 type hardware?

Nope, very big chance we would be well into 2 or 3rd generation DX11 hardware

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Will there even be such a thing as DX12 hardware, or will it all be programmable FLOPS by then?

 

[Squilliam]

Nope, very big chance we would be well into 2 or 3rd generation DX11 hardware

Then it would be a custom design! Im sure they could spare the developer effort, especially if its kind of towards where Direct X 12 is going anyway.

 

[Squilliam]

I was wondering, since there was talk on the Larrabee thread about fixed function hardware vs generalised hardware, does that apply to the CPU/GPU mix here? Would it be better to have one type of hardware say a multi-purpose hardware configuration than having a seperate CPU and GPU?

 

[Tahir2]

Would it be better to have one type of hardware say a multi-purpose hardware configuration than having a seperate CPU and GPU?

Answer it depends on what your priority is. For a console the major priority is going to cost/performance.

If it takes double the cost to get the same performance as a separate CPU and GPU design (by separate we are talking about two different sets of tools/languages) then it is better to have the kind of console design we have now.

Moving to multi-purpose hardware will happen as GPU's become more "CPU-like" (just like audio is now a function of the host CPU rather than a discrete chip) but I am not sure if that will be feasible cost/performance in 2011/2012.

 

[Rendszer]

Well, my thoughts in this is that the next jump perhaps is not so so much needed techwise.
The problem is of course the increase of development cost. This gen, it is alreadyvery expensive and not all publishers/devs make profit.

So business wise, perhaps it does not make so much sense to create an over the top expensive machine, that is expensive to develop for, but also is sold at a loss from the get go.

So perhaps the tech-jump for 360 and PS3 to next is perhaps enough it is only 2-3 times more powerful but also, the tech has to be easy to work with.

I was thinking something along the lines of the latest Phenom x4 core with the help from a dual core GPU of today for a 2011 console. (that kind of power, more or less)

If you want to reach so many people as possible you have to begin with something cheap but also something different, which is what Nintendo did. This can be taken to the next step and the machine has to be flexible and "open" for new ways of interactions.

But yeah, perhaps the jump should not be as high, and to try and release a machine as cheap but still powerful as possible. If it can offer different ways of interacting with the software, ways that are fun and make sense.. then it is even better...

 

[liolio]

Well, my thoughts in this is that the next jump perhaps is not so so much needed techwise.
The problem is of course the increase of development cost. This gen, it is alreadyvery expensive and not all publishers/devs make profit.

So business wise, perhaps it does not make so much sense to create an over the top expensive machine, that is expensive to develop for, but also is sold at a loss from the get go.

So perhaps the tech-jump for 360 and PS3 to next is perhaps enough it is only 2-3 times more powerful but also, the tech has to be easy to work with.

I was thinking something along the lines of the latest Phenom x4 core with the help from a dual core GPU of today for a 2011 console. (that kind of power, more or less)

If you want to reach so many people as possible you have to begin with something cheap but also something different, which is what Nintendo did. This can be taken to the next step and the machine has to be flexible and "open" for new ways of interactions.

But yeah, perhaps the jump should not be as high, and to try and release a machine as cheap but still powerful as possible. If it can offer different ways of interacting with the software, ways that are fun and make sense.. then it is even better...

Actually a single RV740 would easily fit the bill for the figures you give
It's at least three time more powerful/efficient at his job than xenos (if you pass on extra bandwidth granted by the edram).
Anyway I think that manufacturers will come with something better even if they plan for something cheap.

 

[Squilliam]

Actually a single RV740 would easily fit the bill for the figures you give
It's at least three time more powerful/efficient at his job than xenos (if you pass on extra bandwidth granted by the edram).
Anyway I think that manufacturers will come with something better even if they plan for something cheap.

The Jasper Xbox 360 has a 121mm^2 GPU @65nm, so im sure they could easily squeeze something like the RV740 into a new design built as of now. It fits the thermal profile one would want from a console as well.

 

[liolio]

The Jasper Xbox 360 has a 121mm^2 GPU @65nm, so im sure they could easily squeeze something like the RV740 into a new design built as of now. It fits the thermal profile one would want from a console as well.

Yes if somebody were to enter the market now a rv740 would easily find its place in the design . I suspect they would use a downclocked version of the chip as the chip is still a bit too power hungry and warm to find its place in a tiny box.
A system consisting of a downclocked/custom version of a rv740 say a random PPC quadcore and 2 giga of ram would have really significant performance advantage over actual system and it could be reasonably priced (~ps3 price). I wouldn't discuss of its possible success tho but it would be a very potent system. 720p is ~30% less pixel than the really standard 1280*1024 used by quiet some PC gamer and that games would be likely to be meant to run at 30fps I think that quiet some devs team would amazed us.
It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

 

[Rangers]

Yes if somebody were to enter the market now a rv740 would easily find its place in the design . I suspect they would use a downclocked version of the chip as the chip is still a bit too power hungry and warm to find its place in a tiny box.
A system consisting of a downclocked/custom version of a rv740 say a random PPC quadcore and 2 giga of ram would have really significant performance advantage over actual system and it could be reasonably priced (~ps3 price). I wouldn't discuss of its possible success tho but it would be a very potent system. 720p is ~30% less pixel than the really standard 1280*1024 used by quiet some PC gamer and that games would be likely to be meant to run at 30fps I think that quiet some devs team would amazed us.
It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

The problem is it would be a tweener system. It would be powerful now, but in 2-3 years when it's just started gaining momentum, the Xbox 3 and PS4 would be ramping up with multiple times more powerful hardware than a Rv740.

These are some of the things ( along with many others) that plagued 3D0, Jaguar, and to an extent even Dreamcast. Sure 3D0 was a lot more powerful than a SNES, making it viable for a time, but it was a lot LESS powerful than a Playstation 1, making it pointless once that came along (beside far inferior software support etc).

 

[Squilliam]

Yes if somebody were to enter the market now a rv740 would easily find its place in the design . I suspect they would use a downclocked version of the chip as the chip is still a bit too power hungry and warm to find its place in a tiny box.
A system consisting of a downclocked/custom version of a rv740 say a random PPC quadcore and 2 giga of ram would have really significant performance advantage over actual system and it could be reasonably priced (~ps3 price). I wouldn't discuss of its possible success tho but it would be a very potent system. 720p is ~30% less pixel than the really standard 1280*1024 used by quiet some PC gamer and that games would be likely to be meant to run at 30fps I think that quiet some devs team would amazed us.
It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

Ahh, some developers would probably cut off their pinky finger for more memory in the current generation consoles!

Hmm while we are predicting the next generation tech, its funny really but its tempting to think that the current generation Xbox 360 might get a mid cycle refresh when they go to the slim model to give it some extra life. Say, GDDR5 on a 64bit bus and a slight clock bump to Xenon and Xenos to make every single game thats currently available just play at 30FPS and nothing more.

 

[pjbliverpool]

It would be interesting to run some benches of RV740 running some popular games in 720p (if the drivers allow obviously).

Definatly. In fact I would like to see that done in all PC benchmarks regardless of GPU. Basically, how does the game run at equivilent console settings.

Its nice to know what your getting extra for the money you paid!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Ahh, some developers would probably cut off their pinky finger for more memory in the current generation consoles!

Hmm while we are predicting the next generation tech, its funny really but its tempting to think that the current generation Xbox 360 might get a mid cycle refresh when they go to the slim model to give it some extra life. Say, GDDR5 on a 64bit bus and a slight clock bump to Xenon and Xenos to make every single game thats currently available just play at 30FPS and nothing more.

Interesting thought but could play havok if there was a lazy dev that just relied on the fix speed of the console to do their timing for them. Not that I imagine any dev in this day and age would do something like that.

Added to that, it's not like that would really benefit MS or gamer's really. It isn't like it would be cheaper for MS. And it isn't as if dev's would be able to take advantage of any increase in capability as they still have to consider existing consoles.

I really wouldn't expect MS to do any changes with the X360 that weren't related solely to the UI, reliability or cost of the machine.

As to predicting the future. I'm currently not expecting anything new from anyone except possibly Nintendo before 2012 at the very very earliest. And most probably not for a few years after that.

And thus the only thing I can think of would be more programmable general purpose GPUs that are more like Larrabe.

Possibly with Sony/MS both looking at a CPU/GPU integrated on the same chip.

Regards,
SB