Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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It's a long shot, but Apple is well ahead of the competition when it comes to digital distribution. If they intend to get into the home gaming market, surely it will be through iTunes.
Apple has a preference for not strolling into a competitive firestorm. Perhaps all the easy opportunities have been exhausted, but the level of competition in the console market is pretty high.
I'm waiting on solid news on Charlie's last news bombshell concerning a Larrabee in PS4 before buying into a speculation piece where he doesn't have a source other than himself.
I'm waiting on solid news on Charlie's last news bombshell concerning a Larrabee in PS4 before buying into a speculation piece where he doesn't have a source other than himself.
Personally, I'm going to hold out on buying into Charlie's speculation until the Google buyout of Valve is completed.
I'll beleive it as soon as anyone other than Charlie says it. Pretty much everything he says is bull.
That was a rumor started at, if I remember correctly Austin GDC, by some colleagues of mine who were intentionally trying to spread a false, but maybe semi-believable rumor. I was surprised to see Charlie repeat it, and I posted that it was false here.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multim...n_Video_Game_Consoles_Till_2013__Analyst.html
Personally I hope not because of two things:
1- Raw performance, personally I think 360/PS3 are almost there but not yet. Still a 400$/euro PC (with al the tech disvantages and proffit for the companys it give) already give you much more than one of those, in two year it should beat them to death at even lower prices. For Wii it is in desperate need IMO.
2- I do belive that inovation in gaming is now mostly dependent on periphericals and it mass introduction would need very agressive manuvers from both companys, so it is very hard to belive it will happen easly.
What tech does a $200 PC get you? Because that's the price-point here.
I agree with 2013. It's been a long and slow console transition and many publishers haven't yet made their costs back. The two or three way split, depending on how you look at it, between PS3, 360, and Wii hasn't helped any. Furthermore, with consoles still in the $200+ price bracket, there's still a substantial market waiting to buy in at lower prices.
Thanks to robust online connectivity, these consoles have seen substantial software upgrades and we'll certainly see more hardware revisions down the line. Think slim versions of the PS3 and 360.
Personally, I have no interest in buying a new console for a few more years and it would be perilous for any manufacturer to introduce a new platform before the major publishers are ready.
Thanks to robust online connectivity, these consoles have seen substantial software upgrades and we'll certainly see more hardware revisions down the line. Think slim versions of the PS3 and 360.
Personally, I have no interest in buying a new console for a few more years and it would be perilous for any manufacturer to introduce a new platform before the major publishers are ready.
I agree with all of this.
The Wii has certainly shown that graphics fidelity isn´t the key to success within the home console space and still the 360 and the PS3 are miles ahead of the Wii in that field, so why would they hurry to upgrade the graphics. Upgrading the controller should be more of a concern and there are plenty of rumours in that department.
A true technology transition like Xbox->360 or PS2 -> PS3 will not happen before 2013, maybe even later IMO. Some minor cheap upgrades such as added memory may also help extend the life of the current generation consoles, I don´t expect it to follow the path of previous generations.
When that transition eventually happens I expect those new consoles to contain a unified CPU/GPU. All the post-processing already done on the Cell and all the new rumoured features of Larrabee and Nvidias and ATIs new GPUs point in that direction. The CPU/GPU terminology will be part of the past by the time the next generation consoles is released (not counting the Wii HD
).I believe it will happen around 2012. I also believe graphical updating is still extremely important to both the xbox and playstation. The Wii has sold many consoles yes, but most of them either supplementary to gamers who have a 360 or PS3 (or all 3); or to non-traditional gamers who use it as a form of a board game to take out once in a while. In that market segment it has no competition, therefore it's numbers are large comparatively but not wholly.The Wii has certainly shown that graphics fidelity isn´t the key to success within the home console space and still the 360 and the PS3 are miles ahead of the Wii in that field, so why would they hurry to upgrade the graphics. Upgrading the controller should be more of a concern and there are plenty of rumours in that department.
A true technology transition like Xbox->360 or PS2 -> PS3 will not happen before 2013, maybe even later IMO. Some minor cheap upgrades such as added memory may also help extend the life of the current generation consoles, I don´t expect it to follow the path of previous generations.
When that transition eventually happens I expect those new consoles to contain a unified CPU/GPU. All the post-processing already done on the Cell and all the new rumoured features of Larrabee and Nvidias and ATIs new GPUs point in that direction. The CPU/GPU terminology will be part of the past by the time the next generation consoles is released (not counting the Wii HD
The next gen consoles should be able to output 1080p w/o any compromises to fidelity, textures, lighting & aliasing. the next nintendo should be at least 720p, or equal to the current gen 360/PS3. If they don't do this, and they attempt to go after the Wii's market share they will most likely see less sales. People wont buy a Nintendo & other casual console; as usually only hardcore gamers own multiple consoles. & Nintendo has already established brand dominance in that genre.
Well I think that isnt really the price point, but somehere in between 250-400 (unless you want to include the 360 Arcade that dont even run all the games that need a HDD, or if I can make a PC without HDD to have a fair comparition). On the 360 many should add the price of Live...
First you should take in account that if a 400$ PC had the same business model of a console (eg next to 0 proffit) a 400$ PC would cost somehere between 200-250$, plus there is many things on a PC that would be redundant on a console, making it more expensive. More so at those price point things like the box, DVD burner, power suply etc... are what make a PC expensive (much more expensive than their console counter parts, not that their are expensive in bulk/mass product). That is why with 150% of the price you can get more than 200%, when you talk about inexpensive PCs.
Also the more inexpensive parts (eg X2 7xxx/P C2D-4650/9500) are still made using 65nm
If you look at the sale threads around here you will see that this gen is actually selling very well, at least as good any other. But it still true that probably none of them would want to get a new console anytime soon.
Plus I am interested in a new console because:
1- On the HD consoles I am tired of looking always at the same kind of games, there is almost no inovation since HL2 and FC1. Sure there is some good games and even some inovation, but it isnt enought, my (almost 1 year old 450$) PC that gives me as much (or more) performance and almost all the same games. Plus a PC is usefull for so many more things. There is no reason for me to buy a HD console.
2- Wii is quite handicaped, both in market (althought it seems to be changing) and in performance that will keep many good things from the HD gen from coming true. Still WiiMotion+ is the things that exites me more these days (and a few rumors).
Were you really? Given Charlie's low journalistic standards, I'd have been surprised if he had managed to somehow stop himself from repeating it
PC's will never exist at the $200 price point so there is never going to be a straight comparison on that basis but i'm not sure its a valid comparison anyway due to the much greater functionality you would get with a PC. A bit like comparing an iphone at £200 to a basic mobile phone with no extra's at £50. They can't be compared on price alone.
It becomes more complicated when you consider that in general, people need a PC anyway and so you ask how much of that $400 that is purely for the "PC stuff" and how much of it is comparable to the consoles for the "gaming stuff". And of course if the person already has a PC for the "PC stuff" then you could be looking at an upgrade rather than a full system.
A $200 upgrade could look something like this:
Phenon II X3 8450: $76
AM2+ Mobo: $48
OCZ 2GB DDR2 667: $21
VisionTek HD 3850 512MB OC: $60
TOTAL: $205
Thats a hell of a lot of power for such a small price.
You also have to account for profit also in PC, where as consoles there is none or very little.
If you account for store profit, you can swap the Graphics with 4850 and include a case and PSU for $205. Add another $40 for hard disk and DVD drive.
Obviouly this doesn't include assembly cost and other associated costs like controller, etc.
The thing is I don't think 4850 is enough graphical leap over the current gen consoles, for most gamers to upgrade.
If you account for store profit, you can swap the Graphics with 4850 and include a case and PSU for $205. Add another $40 for hard disk and DVD drive.
Obviouly this doesn't include assembly cost and other associated costs like controller, etc.
The thing is I don't think 4850 is enough graphical leap over the current gen consoles, for most gamers to upgrade.
Exactly. Price vs perfomance/functionality ratio. Here the consoles gets beaten real bad and I'll bet you're all are typing from a PC to. The uppgrade for it would then cost like a console but deliver way more on all fronts.
I think most gamers would not aim lower than 8800/4850 type GPUs considering prices and that that they are massively more powerful paired with a decent CPU which most systems have. Like comparing 360/PS3 to Wii. Resolution, framerate, capabilities, all proven.
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Still the Wii would outsell it. The world is strange isn´t it?
So are you or pc999 suggesting console sales are going to decrease because as time rolls on, even though consoles get cheaper, the performance and value of PCs is increasing so much, everyone will want a PC instead?
I don't think the people who buy Wiis and PS2's en masse are into the whole upgrade scene.
But let's just be sure we don't go off on a PC versus console argument here. pc999 said he hopes new consoles come out sooner than 2013 because the PC surpasses their performance, and he points to even cheap $400 PCs as being more powerful than the consoles. My point is you can't get console-like gaming at a console-like price on a PC, $200 and less going forwards (we're talking up to 2013 here). You can advertise added value all you like, but the price tag is the principle determining factor for whether someone buys your sytstem or not. If they can't afford it, no matter how desirable it is, you miss the sale. Just ask Sony about this one
If you put a very powerful 3DO next to a cheap-and-cheerful SNES, which one is going to sell lots?As time pushes on, although the consoles start to look increasingly long in the tooth, the lower price of entry means they sell to the lower tiers of consumers with a smaller budget to spend on gaming. Those who bought early on and are willing to pays lots for their games will just suffer outdated tech. If performance is that important to you, get a PC and upgrade it! The consoles need a long life to be profitable and fund all those gaming developments. If the reason for releasing a console was to match the current PC performance, you'd need new hardware every couple of years!
Not everyone, but some will. As the added value gets greater for a lesser premium, it will sway more to spend the extra on a new PC as opposed to a console. I'm not saying it will make a market changing difference, but its bound to have some impact. If for no other reason that people are buying new PC's for the sake of having a PC and then finding out its actually more powerful for gaming than the console they were considering getting.
I take your point about point of entry price though, as I said, PC's will never get to the $200 range, at least not something thats capable of playing games decently so to the masses that won't upgrade and who simply want a gaming machine at a low price, consoles will largely remain the first choice.
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