Predict: Next gen console tech (10th generation edition) [2028+]

Bear in mind Surface got a big shake-up recently with Panoy's ouster. Frankly I was never impressed with Surface as a product line, far too expensive and slow to update.

Surface was amazing... around the Surface Pro 3, so a decade ago. Such cool new form factors, good specs for the price, etc.

There's still good people there, I'm typing on a Surface Laptop right now, I love the super fast face login (why doesn't Apple put this on their laptops, they have a bloody notch) and the magnetic charger.

Regardless I'm going to say: It's just a console. The hype over "It's a PC now!" is just that, more internet self hype based off a molehill. Just like the "exclusives" coming to other platforms are like, Pentiment, Hi-Fi Rush, and maybe Sea of Thieves at some point rather than "OMG Halo n Forza!!", the hype over the "new business!" will almost certainly be 10x less than the dreams the internet has come up with.
 
Well I could imagine that they now go for an open PC platform with min requirements for the hardware and everyone (certified) can bring out such a console with the Xbox os.
It worked so bad for Valve that they wanted to give it a fail too
 
It worked so bad for Valve that they wanted to give it a fail too

Valve (and 3DO) crash and burned with that model since OEMs weren't subsidized. Offer a revenue split and it might change it.

You have MS defining the baseline every 3-4 years with a refresh and the OEM pro versions filling in gaps of high price for slightly better performance (or better screen etc for the portable offerings).
 
I think it bodes well if the Surface team are responsible for the next XBox hardware.

A tablet/laptop kind of form factor may be achievable by the time of 3nm. Going by MS's own figures, the Series S tends to hover in the 72W range (although loading screens and in-engine cutscenes are ~150W for some reason) which would place a 3nm Series S equivalent at (72*.7*.7=) 35.28W for typical usage: too high for a Switch/Steamdeck style portable, but feasible for the aforementioned form factor.

Yeah, I don't think the Series S as it stands would ever make a good handheld - it's not designed for ultra low power, plus the memory for instance won't scale down well in power consumption even if the SoC does fairly well.

A new device designed with mobility in mind and intended to run Series S games (and all previous back compat games too) might be goer though. I think MS would need to kick off with a strong software library to make a go of a handheld device.

A Zen 5 / RDNA 5 based mobile chip would naturally have far better efficiency than the Series S, and a back compat mode for Series S might be able to get away with lower CPU clocks too. LPDDR6 would also save a lot of power over GDDR6 . Getting up towards 224 GB/s should be possible on a 128-bit bus with LPDDR6, plus new larger caches would help too. 16GB of ram for this hypothetical system would be plenty, and maybe double what Switch 2 will have.

Outside of Series S back-compat mode, the system could use a deterministic turbo system to boost performance and/or lower power consumption.
 
Last gen and this, Xbox haven't exactly done an amazing job vs Sony with regards to cost reduction.
This is something pretty critical I dont see many people ever talk about(here or elsewhere). Ignoring the nonsense that MS were taking a $200 loss per console, there's still the undeniable fact that MS used a 360mm² die with obviously worse chips-per-wafer than PS5, and they never made any effort to port to 6nm to help with this, nor done any notable cost cutting revisions for the system as a whole. And their SSD setup was much slower, but instead of having that be an advantage in terms of cost, it's likely offset a fair bit by being 2230 form factor.

Really seemed like they were just taking the punches of not just having worse sales, but also having worse profitability, and doing nothing about it. I know Series X and S are both quite well designed consoles already without a ton of room for internal packaging improvements, but surely there's room to do something. Anything.

At least it's not as bad as last gen where they used a 360mm² die while also having a substantially weaker processor at the same time. Just a disastrously bone-headed design choice. Not to mention using 8GB of DDR3 instead of GDDR5 which likely didn't save them that much money, all while crippling high res performance capabilities even further.
 
This is something pretty critical I dont see many people ever talk about(here or elsewhere). Ignoring the nonsense that MS were taking a $200 loss per console, there's still the undeniable fact that MS used a 360mm² die with obviously worse chips-per-wafer than PS5, and they never made any effort to port to 6nm to help with this, nor done any notable cost cutting revisions for the system as a whole. And their SSD setup was much slower, but instead of having that be an advantage in terms of cost, it's likely offset a fair bit by being 2230 form factor.

Really seemed like they were just taking the punches of not just having worse sales, but also having worse profitability, and doing nothing about it. I know Series X and S are both quite well designed consoles already without a ton of room for internal packaging improvements, but surely there's room to do something. Anything.

A few of us here have talked about way to possible cost reduce the Series consoles, particularly the X.

For example, moving to a 256-bit bus with 18 Gbps per pin memory. This would reduce the die area needed for 64-bit of PHYs and for two of the ten memory controllers (along with 1/5 of the L3), and physically remove two of the memory chips. This would allow a smidge more BW, free up die area and allow a smaller and possibly less complex / expensive mobo with fewer metal layers. (Part of the reason for a split board might have been to balance a more expensive board for the main chip with a cheaper one for the SSD etc - MS spoke of challenges around ensiuring signal integrity for the 320-bit bus).

On the down side, the faster GDDR6 would need more power per chip and be a little hotter, and the loss of 1MB (or 1/5th) of the L3 L2 might not be compensated for by a few percent more main memory BW. Perhaps larger L3 L2 blocks with the other controllers would be needed?

The current Series X die has GDDR6 PHYs along 3 edges of the chip, and these don't shrink nicely along with transistor density on smaller nodes. So maybe the current memory arrangement doesn't allow MS to take full advantage of a move to 6nm without a more extensive and expensive redsign of the chip than is deemed cost effective. Maybe that's been part of the holdup.

If MS could get down to a 256-bit bus on a 6 or even 5nm chip this might allow them to save on SoC cost, mobo cost, memory cost, cooler and psu cost, and the cost of the chassis (going to a single mobo instead of split).

Even a budget card like the RX 7600 (non XT) with a cheapo cooler uses 18 Gbpp memory now. I think it could really help MS across the board if they could move down to a 256-bit bus.
 
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The current Series X die has GDDR6 PHYs along 3 edges of the chip, and these don't shrink nicely along with transistor density on smaller nodes. So maybe the current memory arrangement doesn't allow MS to take full advantage of a move to 6nm without a more extensive and expensive redsign of the chip than is deemed cost effective. Maybe that's been part of the holdup.
This is an important part of the calculations. What cost savings can be found and how would that impact sales? If Ms think a lower price will have zero difference (fairly good evidence for this) then it's just not worthwhile. I dare say MS have looked at the XB platform and gone "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ - whatever" and just left it as it is, because no amount of re-engineering and new form factor and price reduction is going to win anyone to the platform who won't already buy XB with its current offerings.

It's not that they can't, but they they can't be arsed, because as far as they are concerned the market can't be arsed for XB.
 
This is an important part of the calculations. What cost savings can be found and how would that impact sales? If Ms think a lower price will have zero difference (fairly good evidence for this) then it's just not worthwhile. I dare say MS have looked at the XB platform and gone "¯\_(ツ)_/¯ - whatever" and just left it as it is, because no amount of re-engineering and new form factor and price reduction is going to win anyone to the platform who won't already buy XB with its current offerings.

It's not that they can't, but they they can't be arsed, because as far as they are concerned the market can't be arsed for XB.
A loser attitude, if that's the case.

The market has shown to be receptive towards Xbox in the past when they were doing things well. Again, assuming your thoughts have any validity, it would suggest that Xbox are just trying to act like they are just victims of circumstance rather than looking at the actual reasons that more people aren't flocking to Xbox and trying to address them.
 
A loser attitude, if that's the case.

The market has shown to be receptive towards Xbox in the past when they were doing things well. Again, assuming your thoughts have any validity, it would suggest that Xbox are just trying to act like they are just victims of circumstance rather than looking at the actual reasons that more people aren't flocking to Xbox and trying to address them.
I think the argument is in the past, XB could compete. However, too much has gone wrong since then erode value in the brand and MS can't compete this gen no matter what they do. XBS|X is cheaper than PS5 with by and large the same games, but it's not shifting comparable units even on the home turf. MS would be looking to sell to existing XB fans, who are limited in number and not worth the cost reduction methods. Perhaps not a loser attitude as much as a pragmatic, business focussed one.

/theory
 
Regarding the next cycle, known AMD leaker had this to say about it.

"Cost per transistor remained flat through FinFETs and is set to go up with the transition to GAAFETs/CFETs, essentially signaling the end of free cost savings with simple die shrinks. As such, future consoles will either have increasingly smaller performance gains to keep costs down or significantly higher prices"

 
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I'd like to see.
Nintendo - Arm Nvidia based (obviously happening soon)
PlayStation - AMD as is, they have no reason to change.
Xbox - ARM & Arc (celestial?) based

As long as its at worst ballpark performance & price, but possibly lot better as Intel would need to eat any yield issues.
Intel benefits from being first class citizen for for games.
Xbox benefits with feature set & cost.

Especially if they make a portable console also. Next gen maybe mid, RT can't just be switched off it will be key component.
Using compute in bigger chips may be ok but not for smaller chip. XeSS will also do better reconstruction from low resolutions etc.
MS should have decent idea how battlemage is doing, so would know if worth the risk, although not sure they would go there even if it was shaping up well.
 
Sarah Bond said this about the next gen Xbox hardware:

"We’re also invested in the next-generation roadmap. What we’re really focused on there is delivering the largest technical leap you will have ever seen in a hardware generation, which makes it better for players and better for creators and the visions that they’re building."

Not really much more than PR blurb, but at least they're being modest in their approach.
 
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Regarding the next cycle, known AMD leaker had this to say about it.

"Cost per transistor remained flat through FinFETs and is set to go up with the transition to GAAFETs/CFETs, essentially signaling the end of free cost savings with simple die shrinks. As such, future consoles will either have increasingly smaller performance gains to keep costs down or significantly higher prices"


Excludes chiplets and only counts TSMC, eh

Anyway MS just said they'll have "unique hardware" as well as that "the biggest technical leap!" I guess the dual strategy I suggested is exactly what they're going for. Series S BC mobile and some ludicrous dedicated chiplet thing.

A bit disappointing really, kinda wanted them to go all in on a mobile. Pack enough next gen solid state air coolers into a mobile and you can crank the watts up to 65+, go from mobile 5tf (or 10 w/dual fp) to 20tf (40) and shift from about 50% faster than Series S @1080p to a PS5 Pro w/better RT docked. That sounds really cool for $499.

But then I guess that'd be $100 more than they want for the low end. Ohwell, business will business.
 
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It's all just speculation still on the new hardware that's coming.

Though MS were right about there not being meaningful cost reductions this gen and Sony just admitted it. MS isn't defeatist for being right.
 
I wonder if because MS have so many studios now, that they can mandate an Xbox first policy, and put some really niche hardware in there, that makes it
tricky to port the same game to PS5?
This would open up the option for more customized hardware in the next Xbox console?

Custom TAA hardware?
Maybe a big chunk of very close to APU ram, ala ryzen 3D? also similar to the 360.
I know the 10Mb onboard edram was very effective for the titles that went the effort to make good use of it,
could something similar be in the works for the next xbox?
 
I suspect the "biggest technical leap" wont mean performance, but some feature they think is marketable.

Given where things are heading, the most powerful 'neural processing' gives them a talking point? They can't be the first, as the Switch 2 will beat them to it.
 
What we’re really focused on there is delivering the largest technical leap you will have ever seen in a hardware generation,
That should mean most 'power', as that's the language we use. A technological leap between consoles is the technical difference, between PS1 and PS2, and PS2 and PS3. Which, let's be honest, is nonsense, unless the next-gen console is 1) coming out in 2036 or 2) is going to cost $2000 :p

Which makes it PR weasling. Although even there they are limited in options. AI processor? That'd be a potential large technological leap, but XBSX took that tech from zero to some, so from some to lots won't be as large a leap. Most generous validation would be what's on screen. Actually there's no way that could be the largest leap ever. From XBSX to genuinely photorealistic, that's less of a leap than SNES to N64.

That comment just isn't going to pan out.

Unless...it's some headset disruptive something something nanobot...

 
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