Pioneer: 4-7million PS3 units to ship this year?

[Bobbler]

I'd say most, if not all, developers/publishers have already chosen their primary platform. They may not state it publically, but you have to make predictions when you're dealing with 2+ year projects. And it often ends up being one of those self fulfilling prophecy situations.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

According to this, 7 months after the japanese launch sony had sold just over 3 millon units.

Which about ties in with one's previous figures...
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=676138&postcount=10
...of >6 million in 9 months.

BR is much more cutting edge than DVD at the time, I dunno, 4million seems high for this year 7 million seems way to optimistic for just 6-7 months after launch.

PS2 was production limited. *IF* Sony can produce PS3's faster, greater than PS2 sales is surely possible (unless it costs $many hundreds!). Also sales period between launch and end of the year might be as high as 9 months with a March release.

The performance range is thus from 4 million in 9 months to 7 million in 6 months, which covers all the bases . Do these figures point towards a similar PS2 release schedule? An early release to get the same degree of sales in the same timeframe?

 

[scooby_dooby]

I'd say most, if not all, developers/publishers have already chosen their primary platform. They may not state it publically, but you have to make predictions when you're dealing with 2+ year projects. And it often ends up being one of those self fulfilling prophecy situations.

It would be interesting to know which developers stuck with the play it safe PS3 sure-bet, and how many have decided to take advantage of the better development environment, and greater initial installed base of xbox 360...

 

[scooby_dooby]

Which about ties in with one's previous figures...
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=676138&postcount=10
...of >6 million in 9 months.

Well, this year means 6-7 months assuming an April or june launch, not 9. In that timeframe they were only able to manufacture 3million units, I don't see how they can make 7million PS3's in the same timeframe this time around.

As far as whether they can produce PS3 faster than PS2, what reason is there to think this will be the case? All signs point to the opposite. They are relying on IBM for their CPU which has become MS's biggest bottleneck, and they are using a very cutting edge technology with BR.

I just can't see one good reason why we would think there's much of a chance of PS3 being less production limited than PS2 was...

 

[avaya]

They should easily make the 4m target if they can get enough components for the BD drive. The demand for blue diodes is intense. Sony and Nichia make the only diodes so I think it will be a balancing act for Sony to get enough for PS3 while serving their BDA counterparts.

I am assuming they will launch in spring for Japan, the festival dates for February should be announced soon.

 

[Synergy34]

They are relying on IBM for their CPU which has become MS's biggest bottleneck, and they are using a very cutting edge technology with BR.

Is there any evidence that IBM is the only supplier of the CELL chip? You are pretty much implying that. I see no reason why Sony wouldn't be involved in producing them, wasn't that part of the 4Billion they spent on CELL R&D?

 

[Titanio]

According to this, 7 months after the japanese launch sony had sold just over 3 millon units.
http://www.gaming-age.com/cgi-bin/specials/special.pl?spec=ps2launch2&pagenum=1

I don't know what figures GA is referring to. The figure is 6.4m worldwide between march and december 2000.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html

Well, this year means 6-7 months assuming an April or june launch, not 9. In that timeframe they were only able to manufacture 3million units, I don't see how they can make 7million PS3's in the same timeframe this time around.

See above, it was 6.4m. And they did have trouble initially, with PS2 manufacturing (with GS, specifically).

They are relying on IBM for their CPU which has become MS's biggest bottleneck

No they're not, they manufacture Cell themselves. They're also taking volumes from IBM, but most of the manufacturing is internal I think.

 

[Synergy34]

I don't know what figures GA is referring to. The figure is 6.4m worldwide between march and december 2000.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html



See above, it was 6.4m. And they did have trouble initially, with PS2 manufacturing (with GS, specifically).



No they're not, they manufacture Cell themselves. They're also taking volumes from IBM, but most of the manufacturing is internal I think.

Seems like they are talking about the Japan launch

Now, just seven months after the Japanese release, over three million units have been sold.

 

[Titanio]

Seems like they are talking about the Japan launch

Perhaps, but they were actually a lot closer to 4m in Japan alone.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well, this year means 6-7 months assuming an April or june launch, not 9.

6 months is from beginning of July. Whereas if we assume a Spring launch by the beginning of April, that's 9 months. As yet, without a confirmed release date, the period needed for production ranges from 6 to 9 months. Well, 0 to 9 months in the case PS3 launches after December 1st!

As far as whether they can produce PS3 faster than PS2, what reason is there to think this will be the case?

None really, but PS2 managed >6 million in 9 months. Hence if PS3 launches in Spring (early to mid spring) Sony will have just as long as PS2. Plus where PS2 had the trouble with processor production, Sony are using a very well established 90nm process for Cell and RSX. The most obvious limiting component seems to be the BRD, which is blue laser bound.

 

[hongcho]

I don't understand why people are so worked up about a comment from an execute at a company (Pioneer) about a product from another company (Sony). It's not like he is running Sony. Shouldn't it be similar to an analyst talking about another company?

Hong.

 

[Nicked]

Sony could've provided other BDA members with estimates of what installed base they would contribute to BR this year? Seems likely to me.

 

[Ben-Nice]

It would be interesting to know which developers stuck with the play it safe PS3 sure-bet, and how many have decided to take advantage of the better development environment, and greater initial installed base of xbox 360...

I would think it simply comes down to the install base of each console for any developer that makes games on more than one platform. Your going to allocate your better resources to the console you believe is going to sell the most, because ultimitely, it all comes down to making money. Hypothetically if you believed the marketshare was going to be 50% PS3 30% 360 and 20% Revolution. My guess is the majority would put the more emphasis on the PS3 developement than the other two.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I don't know...I think once the market shares reach a certain equilibrium, like your example of 30/50 that most publishers will have to make their games cross-platform to reach the majority of gamers, no longer does it makes any sense to be exclusive.

So then it comes down to choosing the the base platform, I think that ease of development would be the deciding factor in that case, I wouldn't be surprised to see many use 360 as base platform since it's installed base can be counted on to be a very large percentage of the market, and the development tools are reportedly extremely good.

 

[dubyateeeff]

if Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between 4 and 7 million units could ship.

This is bad news. To few units are being produced this year and with those kind of numbers the shortage that the x-box2 was plagued by will look like nothing. Had they launched with 4 million units (world wide) I would still have said that demand would far outweigh the supplies. Had I been Sony I would have slapped a 475$ price tag on the PS3 (I expect 400 but...) to keep the demand lower. Then quickly lower the price down to 400$ to match the rapidly changing demand.

EDIT: 4 million is that the worst case scenario while 7 being the best case? probably...

 

[Nicked]

I don't know...I think once the market shares reach a certain equilibrium, like your example of 30/50 that most publishers will have to make their games cross-platform to reach the majority of gamers, no longer does it makes any sense to be exclusive.

I agree, in some cases.
But for a game like DoA, it obviously benefits from being Xbox exclusive where it would've continued to be a relatively small fighting franchise amongst Tekken/VF et. al if it had've been on PS2 as well as Xbox. Its exclusivity is one of its major reasons for success IMO. Likewise I think SC could do better as an Xbox exclusive (since the original new versions have struggled to hit 500k in NA on any platform - combined less than just the Xbox version of SC).

Iit's installed base can be counted on to be a very large percentage of the market

Not really a case for making it your primary platform when the PS platform will be ahead in 1-2years.

and the development tools are reportedly extremely good.

Do you want to go through the hassle of porting an X360 engine to PS3 or a PS3 engine to X360? Both ways are going to be bitches to pull off. Middleware FTW PC development

 

[scooby_dooby]

This is bad news. To few units are being produced this year and with those kind of numbers the shortage that the x-box2 was plagued by will look like nothing. Had they launched with 4 million units (world wide) I would still have said that demand would far outweigh the supplies. Had I been Sony I would have slapped a 475$ price tag on the PS3 (I expect 400 but...) to keep the demand lower. Then quickly lower the price down to 400$ to match the rapidly changing demand.

EDIT: 4 million is that the worst case scenario while 7 being the best case? probably...

I tend to think this is more corporate posturing in the BR vs HD-DVD battle, rather than any insight into the actual shipment #'s.

 

[Ben-Nice]

I don't know...I think once the market shares reach a certain equilibrium, like your example of 30/50 that most publishers will have to make their games cross-platform to reach the majority of gamers, no longer does it makes any sense to be exclusive.

So then it comes down to choosing the the base platform, I think that ease of development would be the deciding factor in that case, I wouldn't be surprised to see many use 360 as base platform since it's installed base can be counted on to be a very large percentage of the market, and the development tools are reportedly extremely good.

Well the numbers I got were from the new Edge magazine article

Consider the words of one publishing representative: “We have commitments to all formats and it’s still early days, but right now our publishing plan hasn’t changed much from last-gen. We’re committed about 50 per cent to PS3, 30 per cent to 360 and 20 per cent to Revolution. This could change – depending on what happens with Revolution, we could ramp up our Nintendo activity and there may be some opportunities in the online 360 space that could change our activities there – but our projections are built around PS3 as the next generation cornerstone."

Consider the biggest third-party outifit in existence, Electronic Arts, which has no less than 20 360 games in the works - but is happy to confirm that it's working on a larger number for PS3.

Consider another publishing representative’s take on it: “The truth is, most developers we’re working with who have console backgrounds want to be working on the PlayStation 3. We’ll be bringing more PC content on to the Xbox 360 and often releasing dual PC/360 versions at around the same time, but our dedicated console properties will be leading on the PlayStation 3 in almost every instance."

 

[scooby_dooby]

Don't believe everything you read is all I have to say. Is Edge owned by Sony? Cause it seems basically like PSM with the trash they report.

 

[Qroach]

Don't believe everything you read is all I have to say. Is Edge owned by Sony? Cause it seems basically like PSM with the trash they report.

it's a european mag interviewing who exactly? European publishers I bet. Anyway, you can't beleive everythign you hear, and I wouldn't beleive this. EA isn't goign to spend millions to develop a PS3 game and not make it multi platform. That's simply too risky.