Peter Moore on a worldwide launch

[Gholbine]

Well it's hardly "no different from DVD". Just the precision is MUCH higher, for obvious reasons. That's what creates problems. Then the laser, and making parts that are cheap but will work.

It's a matter of cost and manufacturability ratio. You can get drives now no problem, but at what price?

It's not a "just like a DVD drive". If it were, we would have had Bluray and HDDVD drives for a long time already.

I'm not so sure that's true.

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have only become neccessary recently, because of the advent of HDTV's. Before this, neither format had any real mass-market appeal, until now. Since the Sony (any many others) will have been producing Blu-Ray lasers for 4 years by the time the PS3 hits, I imagine that's ample time to crank out the technology at a fair rate and price.

 

[mckmas8808]

I can only hope Gholbine you are right.

 

[London Geezer]

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have only become neccessary recently, because of the advent of HDTV's.

Well Bluray and HDDVD are not only for movies you know. We have had the "need" for higher capacity discs for quite a while now.

Before this, neither format had any real mass-market appeal, until now.

Market appeal doesn't mean that it's not needed. In the end, if BDROM/HDDVD drives were cheap enough to be released today at a decent price, they'd be out.

Since the Sony (any many others) will have been producing Blu-Ray lasers for 4 years by the time the PS3 hits, I imagine that's ample time to crank out the technology at a fair rate and price.

Well yes obviously the cost for manufacturability will come down. I was only saying that between today and PS3 release (6 months or so?), Bluray drives will be a bitch to get right at the price Sony wish to pay for them.

There's always a compromise between cost and technology and finding the right balance is tough.

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

Indeed, xbd, that's part of the reason I've been wondering why I'm wondering about the blu-ray troubles. If there's really that much trouble with the bds, they wouldn't have moved on to attempting laptop drives. As to the head, I was not aware they were so huge, I imagine the extra precision needed to read the data lines? Or is it the laser itself? Oh, perhaps it's that hueristics chip or whatever... the spin causes deformation on the disc so inorder to keep data from corrupting they developed a more advanced algorith for more accurately reading 0/1s or something like that... dunno if it's still necessary for the BDs with the tdk coating.

ANYWAY, physically, outside of the laser head though the blu-ray drive shouldn't deviate that much from the standard DVD drive... not enough to cause a huge spike in prices or drop in yeilds. I can only imagine it's the laser that's the trouble, and I don't see why they can't start building the laser heads now? Is the spec for the laser head still not settled? I imagine it would be since there are the non-coated BD burners out there now. Obviously, you were hinting at the opposite of this thinking, l-b, but I really don't see it. Could you walk me through it a bit?

 

[London Geezer]

Indeed, xbd, that's part of the reason I've been wondering why I'm wondering about the blu-ray troubles. If there's really that much trouble with the bds, they wouldn't have moved on to attempting laptop drives. As to the head, I was not aware they were so huge, I imagine the extra precision needed to read the data lines? Or is it the laser itself? Oh, perhaps it's that hueristics chip or whatever... the spin causes deformation on the disc so inorder to keep data from corrupting they developed a more advanced algorith for more accurately reading 0/1s or something like that... dunno if it's still necessary for the BDs with the tdk coating.

ANYWAY, physically, outside of the laser head though the blu-ray drive shouldn't deviate that much from the standard DVD drive... not enough to cause a huge spike in prices or drop in yeilds. I can only imagine it's the laser that's the trouble, and I don't see why they can't start building the laser heads now? Is the spec for the laser head still not settled? I imagine it would be since there are the non-coated BD burners out there now. Obviously, you were hinting at the opposite of this thinking, l-b, but I really don't see it. Could you walk me through it a bit?

As i said, it's all about the compromise between cost and tech. Sony have BDROM drives working already, in the labs or outside, but that doesn't mean it's just easy to release PS3 with a fully functional BDROM drive at a decent cost.
Precision, Laser, error correction, all these things are hard to get right, and need PROPER parts, which still cost a little bit, definately much more than DVD drives.
Just thing that in the same area of a DVD, BDROMs have 6 times the amount of "grooves and holes" (so to speak) to achieve the higher capacity. That requires high precision.
The laser, well i'm not sure what the problems with that could be to be honest, but i'm sure there are always little things that can go wrong.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think the jumbo heads are due to red-laser support (DVD and CD). Basically they need two heads in one to be backwardly compatible with the older formats. There's nothing else intrinsically needed to be bigger AFAIK.

 

[Carl B]

I think the jumbo heads are due to red-laser support (DVD and CD). Basically they need two heads in one to be backwardly compatible with the older formats. There's nothing else intrinsically needed to be bigger AFAIK.

The jumbo heads are definitely the 'tri-wavelength' ones, but their size relative to the standard DVD read head is definitely more than triple (at least that was the case last year). Still with Panasonic and their laptop drive being tri-wavelength as well, there have clearly been strides made. Hopefully the drive we get is a good combination of size, speed, and cost.

 

[Acert93]

Oh yeah then maybe it was "a week"...

Well 150k units a week is quite a lot, everything considered....

150k/mo = 1.8M / yr

150k/week = 7.8M / yr

6M difference L-B! I was sitting here thinking, "MS is teh idiots!11" Even if they started production 6 months before launch (they didn't) that would not even be 1M units for a world wide launch We would be looking at an install base of LESS than 3M come fall 2006!

If it is "month" then stick a fork in them

 

[expletive]

I think these comments are clearly posturing of some sort whether to set expectations of failure, or reap additional kudos upon success. I don't think theres any other reason for Moore to discuss how they possibly made a bad decision by going worldwide with the press.

J

 

[Acert93]

I think these comments are clearly posturing of some sort whether to set expectations of failure, or reap additional kudos upon success. I don't think theres any other reason for Moore to discuss how they possibly made a bad decision by going worldwide with the press.

J

The article I read yesterday from Allard saying there would be some dissappointment from stores and consumers was interpreted by myself as saying, "There are gonna be only so many units, so like every other major launch some people are gonna miss out and be upset". If they have 1M units in the US, even if they only sell 90% of the units, there are going to people stores and places bare and people who want them unable to find them.

Its gonna happen. It happened with the N64, it happened with the PS2, it will happen with Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

[Alpha_Spartan]

Shit, I'd hate to be the poor sap who gets stuck with a core system at Christmas because Steve Ballmer wanted 25% of the consoles to be cheap.

I say screw Japan. Respectfully, of course. I don't see why it's such a high priority. Those premium boxes should have been NA systems while the Japanese launch is pushed back to I don't care when. I'd rather piss off the 5 fans in Japan than the 250,000 NA gamers who get turned away because there are no more 360's. Priorities, MS, priorities.

When will Microsoft get over their little Japan fettish?

 

[Guden Oden]

I don't see how logistics could possibly be an issue, it's not as if nobody's ever shipped a lot of stuff across the globe before, particulary when it comes to a multinational corporation like MS.

Only way it might be a problem is if they'd have limited supply and problems to meet initial quotas, but that's more of a manufacturing issue anyway.

 

[Sindre]

I wonder how hard it will get to get a hold of a 360 the first months. I mean after the first few launch units are sold. . . Wil there even be enough for the hardcore gamers?

BTW, just read that many online tech-shops are almost pre-sold out already her in Norway. Another interesting thing is that approximately 95% of norwegians have pre-ordered the most expensive unit! Can someone find numbers from anywhere else?

 

[expletive]

Has anyone seen any 360 commercials yet? Is it me or is there an inordinate amount of buzz surrounding this launch considering the dearth of advertising we've seen thus far? The only thing i can think of is the mountain dew promo in the USA but imo, that promoted awareness that the 360 was coming but nothing in any of the marketing that would stand up and make people actually want the console.

J

 

[Carl B]

Yeah, I'm not sure if that's purposeful or not, but I guess regardless since it's more or less sold out for the holiday ahead of the fact, advertising right now just isn't all that important for MS. The viral seems to have done the job up until now. I'm sure come Nov 22nd we'll start seeing something in terms of a media blitz from them (or maybe not, doesn't really matter).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yes, same as I think happened with PSP. I wonder if advertising is being avoided as sales are guarenteed without it. Be like wasting money to attract more customers than you can supply.

 

[expletive]

Yeah, I'm not sure if that's purposeful or not, but I guess regardless since it's more or less sold out for the holiday ahead of the fact, advertising right now just isn't all that important for MS. The viral seems to have done the job up until now. I'm sure come Nov 22nd we'll start seeing something in terms of a media blitz from them (or maybe not, doesn't really matter).

Do you think there is any benefit for continuing to advertize once you have established you cant even meet the current demand? Possibly driving the 'buzz' into a 'frenzy'? Is this osmething that would carry over past the holiday season or does that frenzy have an expiration date of Jan 1 2006?


J

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

There's a Japanese commercial. It's terrible, but there's one. Well, it's not terrible it's just very American.

 

[Carl B]

Do you think there is any benefit for continuing to advertize once you have established you cant even meet the current demand? Possibly driving the 'buzz' into a 'frenzy'? Is this osmething that would carry over past the holiday season or does that frenzy have an expiration date of Jan 1 2006?


J

Yeah I think if there's an expiration date, it's when PS3 begins to near launch - then I'm sure MS will go all out. But until then, they might as well save some marketing dollars. The fact is I think their in-store kiosks will be impressive enough that even some casuals who wander by will have their interest piqued. That was a good move IMO on their part.

 

[Sindre]

Yes, same as I think happened with PSP. I wonder if advertising is being avoided as sales are guarenteed without it. Be like wasting money to attract more customers than you can supply.

Really?
Over here, the PSP was everywhere! I mean everywhere On the train, busses, subways, in the streets, in papers, magazines.
I'll not be surpsised if we'll seeing the same amount of ads for X360 come November.

I remember when the Xbox launched, didn't MS spend like 500 million $ on adverising? I know it was very important back then because it was their first entry, but I don't see it hurt this time either.