Pachter: Apple 2013 Console

[patsu]

Agreed. Imagine having an xb720/ps4 with cross platform access to iOS apps, itunes, along with all the other media functions.

That's compelling.

That's expected.

What's more compelling to busy folks (thanks to broken economy) is I can take the console, or rather media experience, anywhere when I'm too busy to play at home. Or when someone else is using the TV. I game where I want to (e.g., in bed under blanket, at work), or where I can afford to. And I buy the game once and use it on any devices. The games start as cheap as $1 (or free !). That's a more compelling scenario to working folks.

The "touchy" built-in screen + UI is not the only things special about iPad/iPhone. They are not the only things people will copy.

 

[TheChefO]

What's more compelling to busy folks (thanks to broken economy) is I can take the console (or rather media experience) anywhere when I'm too busy to play at home. Or when someone else is using the TV. I game where I want to (e.g., in bed under blanket), or where I can afford to. And I buy the game once and use it on any devices. That's a more compelling scenario to working folks.

You have that now. It's called in ipad.

If ipad compute restrictions are applied to this console, then the sell angle is ipad at home ... on the tv ...

Where's the hook?

How are 25gb games suppose to fit in a 8gb ipad? (assuming you have the space and patience to dl it)

 

[patsu]

What hook ? It's already selling like hotcakes. If Apple introduce accessories to hook iOS devices up to HDTV, PC, Mac, home theaters, cars and other locations, many people would use them that way. The form factor is not so interesting anymore. Neither is Siri or Kinect.

They don't need a STB. They need a new way (or new economy) for us to watch TV/movies from anywhere in the world, any way we want it. ^_^
[size=-2]They have already solved the "bajillion units of one unified platform" problem and moved on. STB is just one more box in different packaging to them.[/size]


EDIT: And yes, Sony and Nintendo can still survive or even thrive.

 

[TheChefO]

What hook ? It's already selling like hotcakes. If Apple introduce accessories to hook iOS devices up to HDTV, PC, Mac, home theaters, cars and other locations, many people would use them that way.

They don't need a STB. They need a new way (or new economy) for us to watch TV/movies from anywhere in the world, anyway we want it. ^_^

Ok so the thought process is that standard wireless HDMI is their console.

That's fine for their traditional uses. They should continue to sell ipads just as they are now ... but the portability of the device is also its greatest limitation.

I agree with your concept of portable media on a platform. I think Sony and MS are also heading in these directions. But this doesn't preclude S or MS from investing in hardcore interactive hardware... because they know this is a core part of the future of entertainment.

 

[Scott_Arm]

That's expected.

What's more compelling to busy folks (thanks to broken economy) is I can take the console, or rather media experience, anywhere when I'm too busy to play at home. Or when someone else is using the TV. I game where I want to (e.g., in bed under blanket, at work), or where I can afford to. And I buy the game once and use it on any devices. The games start as cheap as $1 (or free !). That's a more compelling scenario to working folks.

The "touchy" built-in screen + UI is not the only things special about iPad/iPhone. They are not the only things people will copy.

Are they iPad and the Playstation 3 direct competitors in the same market? No. No one would argue that they were. The form factor of a portable device will always limit the computing performance of that device, and there seems to be an interest in the continuation of having entertainment devices with more computing power. The whole point of this thread is to discuss whether Apple will jump into the console (set-top) market. I say that they probably won't.

I'm not sure what you're suggesting. Are you saying the iPad or portable device will eventually kill the console industry? Is that the reason why Apple will not jump in?

 

[jonabbey]

Can Apple compete with the next PS or Xbox with a download-only platform? Hard to see them reversing course and shipping packaged optical discs to retailers across the country. Not a problem for the small games, but it might be hard to compete with the big games.

Of course, I guess Steam already does that, so maybe it's not so impossible? Apple's certainly invested crazy heavily in data centers in North America, at least.

I'm waiting for someone to get the bright idea of having downloadable console-style games in which you can start playing the first part of a campaign, etc., before the entirety of the game has been downloaded. There seems no reason why you couldn't be able to start playing the next Uncharted game twenty minutes or so after starting the download while the rest of the game assets stream down.

It wouldn't work for a GTA or Elder Scrolls game, but for those games that have some kind of linear structure, it might do.

 

[patsu]

Can Apple compete with the next PS or Xbox with a download-only platform? Hard to see them reversing course and shipping packaged optical discs to retailers across the country. Not a problem for the small games, but it might be hard to compete with the big games.

Of course, I guess Steam already does that, so maybe it's not so impossible? Apple's certainly invested crazy heavily in data centers in North America, at least.

I'm waiting for someone to get the bright idea of having downloadable console-style games in which you can start playing the first part of a campaign, etc., before the entirety of the game has been downloaded. There seems no reason why you couldn't be able to start playing the next Uncharted game twenty minutes or so after starting the download while the rest of the game assets stream down.

It wouldn't work for a GTA or Elder Scrolls game, but for those games that have some kind of linear structure, it might do.

They don't have to take the entire market. They only need to serve their base well. Apple has always been aggressive in dropping hardware features when the technologies go against their beliefs. Remember floppy drive, DVD drive, expansion slots, second mouse button, no forward/back button on iPod Shuffle ? Gone before users had a chance to b*tch. And they stuck by their guns for a decade or more.

The new textbook I downloaded yesterday was 2.77Gb. Mac has AppStore for enterprise apps too. They all can be downloaded in the background. I agree episodic download may be ok for some type of games/titles. The other reason is if the price is cheap(er) and the goods are attractive, people may put up with the wait ($15 for a textbook is dirt cheap ! ... well, if you don't pirate).

 

[patsu]

Are they iPad and the Playstation 3 direct competitors in the same market? No. No one would argue that they were. The form factor of a portable device will always limit the computing performance of that device, and there seems to be an interest in the continuation of having entertainment devices with more computing power. The whole point of this thread is to discuss whether Apple will jump into the console (set-top) market. I say that they probably won't.

I'm not sure what you're suggesting. Are you saying the iPad or portable device will eventually kill the console industry? Is that the reason why Apple will not jump in?

To complete the media experience, they will address the traditional STB market via non-traditional means. e.g., Using existing iOS devices + a dock. If they release a "standalone" STB device, then it will likely come with other non-traditional business models and services that benefit the entire iOS ecosystem (So you can use your iPad or iPhone for the same purpose). STB box or not is merely tactical.

Here's another rumor:
http://www.insidemobileapps.com/2012/01/19/exclusive-xbox-live-games-coming-to-other-platforms/

Rumors Xbox Live games would no longer be a Windows phone exclusive began to pick up steam in early January, when LiveSide and Business Insider spotted a job description for a developers with iOS and Android experience to “bring the latest and greatest gaming and entertainment experience to mobile platforms including Windows Phone, iOS and other mobile platforms.”

Together with PS Suite, they are meant to tap on the iOS and Android ecosystems -- assuming the rumor is true of course.


EDIT: IMHO, the most powerful siblings in the iOS family are the older phones. The 3GS is mostly free now (pass on to another family member, or sold cheaply). It's difficult to resist such a "cheap" device with a strong legacy and content-base. My son has a free 3GS from me, as a boombox + game console in his room. I don't even need another TV there.

 

[TheChefO]

The only way this concept of (ibox=ipad - screen ) would be successful is if the game content is pliable and scalable. Same exact game but with different assets for the ibox vs iphone/ipad.

Much like PC games are now.

If the ibox is literally a screenless ipad, I can't see a reason for many to buy it.
It will be ignored much like AppleTV was/is.

Thus leaving their intent for livingroom saturation unfulfilled.

Investors would lap up a cheap and profitable from day one "games console" though. Being under the impression they'd be getting a similar cut to what MS/Nintendo have been enjoying.

They will be sorely mistaken ... for the 3rd time.

 

[patsu]

Depends on what they want. It doesn't matter if fewer people bought the new AppleTV for an always-on experience, while millions others bought an iPad dock for a similar purpose.

Apple already has the crowd. All it needs is to plug the user experience hole to round up their end-to-end ecosystem. A lot of core gamers are already using iOS for gaming and entertainment. I for one will cheer loudly if Sony makes an iOS RemotePlay client. Whoever (MS, Nintendo or Sony) does it first will likely get a lot of thanks and congratulations from the users.

EDIT: There are also rumors that Apple will build a TV instead. Now even if it *might* be the best TV in the whole damn world, people probably won't go buy one right away. Unit sales is not the only business metric or goal. For the most part, Apple may use the new AppleTV/TV/dock/whatever project to layer more goodies on top of iOS.

 

[TheChefO]

The livingroom experience is significantly different.

How many motion control games are taking place on a pad (keep in mind Kinect sales aren't exactly limping along)?
How many movie nights are sat around a ipad on a Friday night?
How about just coming home and relaxing in front of the ipad ... er I mean TV.

Keep in mind, for all the hoopla of the ipad, xb360 has sold more. PS3 has sold more. And Wii has sold more.

Phones are a different animal altogether so I'm not going to even look at those sales as the experience is even more limited from a media/entertainment standpoint and the answers to the above become even more ridiculous.


The igadgets are great, but they are not a replacement for the STB environment.

Apple gets gadgets. They don't get livingroom.

Sales in both arenas confirm this.

Now this 2013 console may change that, but it will take an altered approach to prove successful.


If you were correct and Apple was fine with just dabbling in the market and getting whatever sales go their way, we wouldn't be seeing an altered game-plan twice now to saturate the living-room.

There is a clear direction that Apple is trying to get to, and a clear result that has been established from their previous efforts.

Winning the livingroom will take either a full-fledged games console (half-assed consoles came and went many times), or a concerted effort to replace cable set top boxes of major carriers.

Those are the methods of success.

Not a plugin for an ipad.

Plugging in an ipad strips it of the only novel feature it has (portability per person).

A bachelor might go for it, but a traditional household is going to want the necessary entertainment required for the bigscreen to remain with the bigscreen.

A moot point anyway as the whole concept we are talking about is an Apple console.

What features it would have above and beyond being a games console is debatable, but I think rather predictable.

How far they go with fulfilling the games console concept will determine the success it has in the venture.

The rest of the non-gaming periphery is just that and will not be the sales driver as we already see those functions in other idevices which are on the shelf ready for purchase if not already at home.

 

[Rangers]

I'm 450% sure Apple isn't making a console anytime soon. At least not any semblance of a traditional hardcore one.

Everything about the console market pretty much goes against everything Apple stands for. It's not for the faint of heart or those in love with high profit margins.

They would make Apple TV be able to play Angry Birds and the like, at best.

 

[TheChefO]

They would make Apple TV be able to play Angry Birds and the like, at best.

That may be true.

...and I'm 100% sure it will be another failed attempt at the livingroom ... as AppleTV was/is.

 

[Jedi2016]

I'm 450% sure Apple isn't making a console anytime soon. At least not any semblance of a traditional hardcore one.

Everything about the console market pretty much goes against everything Apple stands for. It's not for the faint of heart or those in love with high profit margins.

They would make Apple TV be able to play Angry Birds and the like, at best.

I think that, if these rumors have any merit (and I don't necessarily think they do.. Pachter has pulled some pretty stupid stuff out of his ass before), I think they'll be going for the same market they do with the current iOS devices. I think the new box will literally be just what you say.. a way to play iOS games and apps on your HDTV, and aimed squarely at the casual gamer. As such, they won't be in direct competition with the "big three", since they're offering completely different types of games. Which, I think, nobody will want to play. Those types of games work well for a mobile platform, but I don't think they're suited for a living room environment.

 

[wco81]

Apple may sell over 50 million iPads this year. That's more than what some console makers sell in 5 years of a generation.

And every one of those iPads is profitable. So why would Apple get into a lower-margin business?

All the speculation this year is about TV products, which would presumably have some better UX, maybe some kind of interactivity with apps. and maybe a new content-delivery model for TV -- maybe something like a la carte.

Pachter doesn't have any special insights into Apple so why is his comment being taken so seriously?

 

[RudeCurve]

Here's another idea that may work for Apple. For their launch console lets just call it iBox, they'll have a STB that has 4 empty slots. This thing will be $300 making a small profit or breaking even on hardware. It will have hardware performance comparable to what the WiiU is rumored to have but will be able to tap into all of Apple's software ecosystem. What would be different with Apple's STB is that every two years they'll release a new version of the console with 2X the CPU/GPU performance while still selling the 1st generation system (that can be upgraded by the user) to current specs with the addition of CPU/GPU daugthercards. This will be a hybrid PC/console business model. Given that they've been following this model for years with the iPads, iPhones etc I could see them doing the same with a hybrid Mac/game console/STB. I think if they stick to the same CPU/GPU archictecture similar to the iPads/iPhones while just adding more cores and higher clocks it could work quite well.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'm waiting for someone to get the bright idea of having downloadable console-style games in which you can start playing the first part of a campaign, etc., before the entirety of the game has been downloaded. There seems no reason why you couldn't be able to start playing the next Uncharted game twenty minutes or so after starting the download while the rest of the game assets stream down.

There's already companies experimenting with this. Blizzard for example is going to be doing this with Diablo III, you can already see the functionality partially working in the D3 BETA.

I believe Microsoft has experimented with this with some titles on the X360 as well.

Regards,
SB

 

[zed]

But I do see how it's much easier to get your panties in a bunch and go into Apple denier mode.

Apple denier? Im not sure what you mean, perhaps youre implying Im one of those ppl that think apple can do no wrong, which cant be further from the truth. I dislike their patent crap theyre pulling at the moment, and believe their OSX to be a piece of baddly designed buggy junk, the less said of Xcode the better.
Why Im refuting is your tired old assertion 'and sell it for 50-100% more than competitors' mate, that hasnt been true for years, (yes many years ago it was true) but look at what theyve done over the last few years
ipod - closest competitor Zune (launched at the exactly same price at roughly the same specs, 8GB IIRC )
iphone - 4gs costs about the same as the toplevel android samsung or nokia WP7
ipad - as above same price (or even cheaper) than the top level android pad

i.e. the adage of slapping on a 50-100% apple tax is just not correct any more

 

[Silent_Buddha]

ipod - closest competitor Zune (launched at the exactly same price at roughly the same specs, 8GB IIRC )
iphone - 4gs costs about the same as the toplevel android samsung or nokia WP7
ipad - as above same price (or even cheaper) than the top level android pad

i.e. the adage of slapping on a 50-100% apple tax is just not correct any more

Those are all about trying to get the same margins as Apple enjoys, not about the fact that Apple AND those products could be considered overpriced. Not to mention that they may or may not feature the same level of hardware with each piece of hardware focusing on different area's. So you can never get a relatively apples to apples comparison of hardware and deduce if someone actually is going for a significantly higher margin than the others.

In the computing world the Apple hardware is still significantly higher priced that the competition featuring the same hardware. And here you actually can configure hardware to be virtually identical to see what companies are charging for the hardware relative to each other. Sure it may not be 50% higher, but higher is higher.

Regards,
SB

 

[RudeCurve]

Those are all about trying to get the same margins as Apple enjoys, not about the fact that Apple AND those products could be considered overpriced. Not to mention that they may or may not feature the same level of hardware with each piece of hardware focusing on different area's. So you can never get a relatively apples to apples comparison of hardware and deduce if someone actually is going for a significantly higher margin than the others.

In the computing world the Apple hardware is still significantly higher priced that the competition featuring the same hardware. And here you actually can configure hardware to be virtually identical to see what companies are charging for the hardware relative to each other. Sure it may not be 50% higher, but higher is higher.

Regards,
SB

I don't think they're overpriced. Highend phones have ALWAYS been expensive regardless what brand you buy without contract. This was BEFORE the iPhone was introducted. Highend smartphones have always been $500 or more to buy.

As for Mac computers that has nothing to do with zed's point...which was..the adage of slapping on a 50-100% apple tax is just not correct any more