Pachter: Apple 2013 Console

[patsu]

Apple has yet to prove they can sell $60 games though.

For all the doomsday talk of mobile where it makes sense that casual bite-size gaming makes sense (and the price to match), there is still a very healthy and thriving market of "hardcore" gamers that have no problem paying $60 for games (and tens of millions that also pay $60 per year for online play).

It doesn't have to prove anything. $60 games is not the end goal.

Free-to-play, subscription, ad-driven, cheap, or premium games are all valid business models. %&*$(&%*$ Angry Bird probably made a lot more money than many $60 console games. The volume is great if you can tap on it.

You also see from today's announcement that textbooks will be sold for up to $15. This is a much higher asking price compared to the $0.99/$1.99 apps a few years ago.

If the users see the value, they will pay a fair price to get it.

Apple's angle may be to literally bring the ipad to the big screen. But I don't foresee much more success than they had with appletv with such an approach.

Why would I want my ipad game on the TV, when I have it in my hands? Also, if it's literally the same game across all devices, that's a relatively low baseline for performance. Significantly below xb360/ps3.

I don't think this will be a lightweight console. There isn't much incentive to buy it if that is the case.

Why not just buy an ipad?

Buy what ? iPad is already selling like hotcakes. It's up to the developers to take advantage of the momentum. Once the content library is there, hooking up to the HDTV is only a connectivity question. It can be done in many ways. AppleTV is only one form.

The Apple console is the iOS ecosystem.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Apple doesn't really have to prove they can sell $60 games. They just need to release a platform with tools that can run $60 games. The console market is more than ever a multiplatform space. Apple doesn't really need to secure AAA exclusives. They just need a platform that can run the top-end multiplatform exclusives, and the exclusive titles can fall into the small or indie-flavoured titles that people are used to on iOS. Sony and Microsoft don't sell Call of Duty. Call of Duty sells itself.

Tons of people have iPhones. Build a network like Live that relies on your iPhone contacts that uses Facetime and iMessenger for communication. Isn't there something like Live for iOS already? Anyway, if they can tie into the iPhone and iPad brand, then there is an incentive for people to switch to the platform.
I still don't think we'll see a full-fledged "console" from Apple any time soon. Apple likes to charge a premium for their products, and it would be hard to do that in the console space. If they sell at a low price, would it devalue their other products? Maybe not Regardless, the possibilities are there, if Apple wants to go for it.

Also, you have to look at what this would do to the Mac Mini and Apple TV. Maybe Apple TV disappears, but what value would the Mac Mini have relative to a launch console? I think this is pretty much wild unfounded speculation from Pachter, but we'll see.

 

[TheChefO]

I wasn't aware of that quote from Newell but it kind of confirm me in my way of thinking, "raising expectations" and "seperate console platform will disapear" scream fullblown OS to me. That's what Apple is selling no matter how they wrap it and how they position a product running their OS.

The quote by Newell seemed to be conjecture predicting a possible path based on past and current actions of Apple at the time, but now with this Pachter quote, it seems there's a bit more to this than "hmm what do you think they might do?"

The statement is broken down as: "they are doing this" [fact] "and it will likely come at this time" [prediction]

 

[TheChefO]

It doesn't have to prove anything. $60 games is not the end goal.

Free-to-play, subscription, ad-driven, cheap, or premium games are all valid business models. %&*$(&%*$ Angry Bird probably made a lot more money than many $60 console games. The volume is great if you can tap on it.

I get that, but those games (small, cheap, short) are already sold on Ipod/pad/phone.

Now why would I as a consumer spend money for a console to play the same time-waster apps on their console instead of ps3/4/xb360/720?

Buy what ? iPad is already selling like hotcakes. It's up to the developers to take advantage of the momentum. Once the content library is there, hooking up to the HDTV is only a connectivity question. It can be done in many ways. AppleTV is only one form.

Yes, but then you're talking of literally an ipad (or ipad guts). What incentive is there to buy it?

The Apple console is the iOS ecosystem.

No. He was clearly speaking of console hardware and of something which isn't out yet.

An OS that is cross compatible isn't new.

 

[babybumb]

Apple TV is their console. It will all be iCloud based if they ever run full console releases.

 

[patsu]

Now why would I as a consumer spend money for a console to play the same time-waster apps on their console instead of ps3/4/xb360/720?

It's the other way round, a boatload of people already have iOS devices. They are here today.

* Today's iOS games can be addictive. They are not all waste of money and time to everyone. There are people who didn't like Wii or Kinect games, but both of them sold well regardless. e.g., my household play Plants vs Zombie more than KZ3. People buy iPad as a total package, including the ability to consume music, movies, cheap and expensive games.

* Developers will learn and make new games. We are seeing ports from old core games too. Third parties like OnLive will also throw in their own tools, including a controller. In fact, we see iOS games ported to PS360 too.

Any talk of future iOS console is just an incremental upgrade from today's devices. It can be an iPad with HDMI out connectivity. It could also be an AppleTV. Or it could be something else. But the iOS ecosystem is here today, evolved by Apple and all the $99 developers. That is the virtual console experience. There is a new Apple console every year, not just 2013.

 

[TheChefO]

Apple doesn't really have to prove they can sell $60 games. They just need to release a platform with tools that can run $60 games. The console market is more than ever a multiplatform space. Apple doesn't really need to secure AAA exclusives. They just need a platform that can run the top-end multiplatform exclusives, and the exclusive titles can fall into the small or indie-flavoured titles that people are used to on iOS. Sony and Microsoft don't sell Call of Duty. Call of Duty sells itself.

I could be wrong and perhaps Apple has enough brand equity to sell the first 5 million, if it didn't have games, but I'm pretty sure Apple will have to try and lure existing console gamers to chose their console. Else, suffer AppleTV3.0

Tons of people have iPhones. Build a network like Live that relies on your iPhone contacts that uses Facetime and iMessenger for communication. Isn't there something like Live for iOS already? Anyway, if they can tie into the iPhone and iPad brand, then there is an incentive for people to switch to the platform.

Whats the hook? Play literally the same software on your iconsole as you have on your ipad?

Maybe it's just me, but those apps aren't exactly the same as xb360/ps3 gamers expect, and if it's the same hardware as an ipad, the ports will look pretty trash next to the native ps3/xb360 games.

Nevermind ps4/xb720.

I still don't think we'll see a full-fledged "console" from Apple any time soon.

If by that you mean it will be low spec, you may be right. Perhaps they rip the screen off an ipad and throw it in a case with a controller and box it up for $300. I just don't see market acceptance for something like that.

As a consumer, it's less functional than an ipad, has inferior guts to an xb360 arcade model, and the available games library is shite in comparison.

Nevermind the friends list.

If the intent is to sell to casuals, they either already bought a Wii, and are "happy" or they're looking to upgrade to Kinect if they haven't already.

Also, you have to look at what this would do to the Mac Mini and Apple TV. Maybe Apple TV disappears, but what value would the Mac Mini have relative to a launch console? I think this is pretty much wild unfounded speculation from Pachter, but we'll see.

Didn't seem like speculation at all. At least with the way it was worded anyway. It wasn't, "perhaps Apple might come out with a console"...

It was only speculation on timeframe ... the wording of whether the console "is" or "isn't" seemed pretty firm to me as if everyone knows they are working on it and have been working on it, and now its simply a matter of when will it be ready.

 

[TheChefO]

It's the other way round, a boatload of people already have iOS devices. They are here today.

Yes, but those people aren't console gamers. As I said, if the gameplan is literally strip the screen off an ipad and drop it in a case with a controller, this thing will flop worse than Apple TV.

If the intent is to capture casual gamers, Wii => Kinect.

Now unless they have something to compete on that interface front, I don't see good fortune coming from such a biz plan.

It can be an iPad with HDMI out connectivity. It could also be an AppleTV.

I think Apple is smarter than that.

If the intent is console gaming (I'm not seeing what else it could be as they already failed with AppleTV twice, and Ipad is already on the market) then they need a lure for that market.

It's not like the market is filled with a bunch of slacker platform holders sitting on ancient hardware ... err

 

[Scott_Arm]

I could be wrong and perhaps Apple has enough brand equity to sell the first 5 million, if it didn't have games, but I'm pretty sure Apple will have to try and lure existing console gamers to chose their console. Else, suffer AppleTV3.0



Whats the hook? Play literally the same software on your iconsole as you have on your ipad?

Maybe it's just me, but those apps aren't exactly the same as xb360/ps3 gamers expect, and if it's the same hardware as an ipad, the ports will look pretty trash next to the native ps3/xb360 games.

Nevermind ps4/xb720.



If by that you mean it will be low spec, you may be right. Perhaps they rip the screen off an ipad and throw it in a case with a controller and box it up for $300. I just don't see market acceptance for something like that.

As a consumer, it's less functional than an ipad, has inferior guts to an xb360 arcade model, and the available games library is shite in comparison.

Nevermind the friends list.

If the intent is to sell to casuals, they either already bought a Wii, and are "happy" or they're looking to upgrade to Kinect if they haven't already.



Didn't seem like speculation at all. At least with the way it was worded anyway. It wasn't, "perhaps Apple might come out with a console"...

It was only speculation on timeframe ... the wording of whether the console "is" or "isn't" seemed pretty firm to me as if everyone knows they are working on it and have been working on it, and now its simply a matter of when will it be ready.

Well, I don't think they are going to release a set-top gaming machine. If they do, I think it'll be designed to run the big selling games we commonly see on Xbox and PS. By that I mean, Call of Duty, Battlefield, EA Sports and whatever else sells big. They will differentiate by integrating their iOS content delivery and services: iTunes, iBooks, iMessenger, Facetime, iCloud, iOS, Safari, Mail, Apps, sync with iPhone/iPad, iPhone/iPad as remote. That's the only way I see this working. Like you said, there is no point in releasing a console if it just runs upgraded versions of iPad games. In the end, I see this as very unlikely.

Edit: I mean, the potential is there for things like answering your phone calls while playing games, talking through your headset. Or having group chat that can include people on console, iPad and iPhone, all using their devices for different things, but being able to communicate with each other. Microsoft, Sony could do the same, but they have the opposite task - convincing people to buy their phones. Also, iPhone notifications pop-up on television screen by syncing with phone etc. There's a lot they could do to make the millions of iPhone owners want to use their console. Also, if you're reading this, Apple, and you think it's a good idea, throw some money my way.

 

[TheChefO]

There is a new Apple console every year, not just 2013.

If that were the case, why would he even say anything?

If it was really from the standpoint of ios is everywhere and it has gaming ie it is a games console, then why say "The Apple console is probably a 2013 event"?

"The" meaning singular. And "event" meaning launch.

 

[RudeCurve]

I could see a near future Apple multimedia console with a 8 core A8 CPU + multicore PowerVR Rogue chip + 4GB RAM stuffed into a case the size of a Mac Mini that can also run Mac OSXI, iOS apps programs and Siri, Facetime, iMessage, iTunes, Game Center integration..

If they can get developers like Epic etc to make an exclusive launch game for this iBox console they'd have a lot of people buying this multimedia box...I know I would.

 

[Scott_Arm]

If that were the case, why would he even say anything?

If it was really from the standpoint of ios is everywhere and it has gaming ie it is a games console, then why say "The Apple console is probably a 2013 event"?

"The" meaning singular. And "event" meaning launch.

It is pretty obvious he is referring to a set-top device. I have never ever heard anyone refer to the iPad or iPhone as a gaming console. When you say console, everyone thinks set-top not handheld.

 

[french toast]

Ive wandered this for a while, Apple for all its dominence in recent years have been very 'half arsed' in the living room, i think steve jobs said as much.

Why they didn't release a console is beyond me, i have no doubt that they would be sucessfull if they did, probably at the expense of both nintendo AND sony, as they do not have the market capitol and funds to withstand a concerted console war, especially from 2 big boys like Apple and Microkia.

I love xbox, but i would be very worried for microkia if Apple came into town, they have massive brand power, and a loyal almost religous following.

They could of really put the wind up the console boys sooner if they had brought out Apple tv with some better innards..it wouldn't have to be more powerfull, just powerfull enough, with that app store....

I f they were going to release a PROPER console, in the traditional sense, then it would definatly be a custom ARM core, combined with a high end custom rogue, both could be scaled down into smartpohones and make it easy to develop.

The main advantages to this would be competition to Microkia and Google in the living room, to try and put pressure on them and get market share away from them.

 

[patsu]

Yes, but those people aren't console gamers.

Not quite true. As far as I can see, most or all of my casual and hardcore gamer friends already own an iPhone and/or iPad. They are already "in the camp". I also see hardcore gamers who have abandoned gaming, but own an iOS device.

As I said, if the gameplan is literally strip the screen off an ipad and drop it in a case with a controller, this thing will flop worse than Apple TV.

If the intent is to capture casual gamers, Wii => Kinect.

Now unless they have something to compete on that interface front, I don't see good fortune coming from such a biz plan.

The simplest way is to hook iPad to a HDTV. Get a controller if you want to, but touch input should be fine for some games. For people who prefer a STB, going AppleTV or something else is fine too.

I don't see Kinect competing with iOS. They are different animals. The latter has greater installed base and growth rate anyway. Wii is more established, and Nintendo will follow up with WiiU. Then again, the iOS ecosystem is well differentiated. They can all co-exist.

I think Apple is smarter than that.

If the intent is console gaming (I'm not seeing what else it could be as they already failed with AppleTV twice, and Ipad is already on the market) then they need a lure for that market.

It's not like the market is filled with a bunch of slacker platform holders sitting on ancient hardware ... err

iPad with HDMI out is already on the market. It will just get better. ^_^

The old AppleTV was based on Mac OSX with gimped capability (Can't run Mac OSX apps unless you hack it). The new AppleTV is iOS based, blessed by a huge content library and developer base. Once they do that, AppleTV itself is not so important anymore. It's more for people who prefer a STB form factor.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I look forward to apple dominating the console space with a yearly released $800 product.

 

[patsu]

If that were the case, why would he even say anything?

If it was really from the standpoint of ios is everywhere and it has gaming ie it is a games console, then why say "The Apple console is probably a 2013 event"?

"The" meaning singular. And "event" meaning launch.

Ask him. ^_^
Where has he heard the 2013 Apple console news from ?

It is pretty obvious he is referring to a set-top device. I have never ever heard anyone refer to the iPad or iPhone as a gaming console. When you say console, everyone thinks set-top not handheld.

iPad and iPhone are more than a gaming console. People do use them for gaming. Hence, all the doom and gloom about dedicated gaming handheld.

When we say console, it can be a 3DS portable console, or a PS3 home console, or perhaps a portable home console in the future.


You can see Sony and Microsoft trying to build combined entertainment experiences into their game consoles anyway, home console or mobile.

I look forward to apple dominating the console space with a yearly released $800 product.

I don't know if they want to zero in on the hard core gamers per se, but you should be able to buy cheaper iOS/Android devices today.

You should also be able to see people playing games on iOS devices "everywhere". Dedicated gaming and convergent devices can co-exist.

 

[TheChefO]

I could see a near future Apple multimedia console with a 8 core A8 CPU + multicore PowerVR Rogue chip + 4GB RAM stuffed into a case the size of a Mac Mini that can also run Mac OSXI, iOS apps programs and Siri, Facetime, iMessage, iTunes, Game Center integration..

If they can get developers like Epic etc to make an exclusive launch game for this iBox console they'd have a lot of people buying this multimedia box...I know I would.

The guts would have to be substantial. ARMv8 + Rogue could be interesting.

If the thing is an also ran, similar to xb360 and ps3, I don't see much market for it, just like Wiiu.

If they take the market serious and ibox can give xb720 and ps4 a run for their money performance-wise, then it may sway some marketshare ...if they back this up with exclusive partnership deals with Epic et al and can price it aggressively, it could really compete.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

I look forward to apple dominating the console space with a yearly released $800 product.

Exactly. Is there really speculation that Apple is going to abandon their extremely profitable "Build the same product that's been available previously but make it look prettier, have a nice interface, be fully integrated with existing Apple devices, and sell it for 50-100% more than competitors" model when launching into the console space?

In order for Apple to even consider such a thing, they would have to have some pretty firm numbers on how profitable PSN or Live! and believe that integrated the Apple Store into the living room will make up for their normally huge hardware profit margins.

 

[TheChefO]

Not quite true. As far as I can see, most or all of my casual and hardcore gamer friends already own an iPhone and/or iPad. They are already "in the camp". I also see hardcore gamers who have abandoned gaming, but own an iOS device.

Ok, and why would they get this iBox instead of xb720/ps4/WiiU?

The simplest way is to hook iPad to a HDTV. Get a controller if you want to, but touch input should be fine for some games. For people who prefer a STB, going AppleTV or something else is fine too.

He was clearly not talking about an ipad with a controller.

It's clearly an STB/console. The question is, what kind of console guts are we talking about?

I don't see Kinect competing with iOS. They are different animals. The latter has greater installed base and growth rate anyway. Wii is more established, and Nintendo will follow up with WiiU. Then again, the iOS ecosystem is well differentiated. They can all co-exist.

Kinect is seen as the new "Cool" thing. It can use improvement, but the big thing Apple has going for it is the touchscreen. Take that away (as nobody wants to set with their 55" in their lap), and now Apple needs to find a way to replicate the touchscreen "magic". Closest thing to that? Kinect.

I'm not sure exactly how strong MS patent protection is for Kinect, but I've got a feeling we will find out.

iPad with HDMI out is already on the market. It will just get better. ^_^

Indeed. No point in mentioning "The Apple console is probably a 2013 event" for something that is on the market.

The old AppleTV was based on Mac OSX with gimped capability (Can't run Mac OSX apps unless you hack it). The new AppleTV is iOS based, blessed by a huge content library and developer base. Once they do that, AppleTV itself is not so important anymore. It's more for people who prefer a STB form factor.

http://www.appleinsider.com/article..._2_million_820k_sold_last_quarter_report.html

AppleTV is selling worse than any games console in recent history.

It is living proof that the brand isn't enough and neither is iOS, and this from a $100 device.

If they want to be in the livingroom, they need to do more. They need consumers to have a desire to buy their product beyond just the fruit label and "apps" .. the same apps they already have on their other idevices, but with less functionality, and a worse user interface.

It is pretty obvious he is referring to a set-top device. I have never ever heard anyone refer to the iPad or iPhone as a gaming console. When you say console, everyone thinks set-top not handheld.

Exactly.

 

[TheChefO]

Ask him. ^_^
Where has he heard the 2013 Apple console news from ?

I don't know, but it seems pretty clear that he is firm on there being a Apple Console (not a pad phone pod or anything along those lines)

iPad and iPhone are more than a gaming console. People do use them for gaming. Hence, all the doom and gloom about dedicated gaming handheld.

When we say console, it can be a 3DS portable console, or a PS3 home console, or perhaps a portable home console in the future.

Portable devices aren't consoles.

You can see Sony and Microsoft trying to build combined entertainment experiences into their game consoles anyway, home console or mobile.

They aren't trying to do that, they are doing it. They are also blending and integrating their console experience with their other mobile devices. Id expect Apple to do the same.

I don't know if they want to zero in on the hard core gamers per se, but you should be able to buy cheaper iOS/Android devices today.

You should also be able to see people playing games on iOS devices "everywhere". Dedicated gaming and convergent devices can co-exist.

Yes they can, but people game on i devices not because they are great at gaming, but because they have the devices there for other purposes and it just so happens that they can waste a bit of time while waiting by playing a game for free (or cheap)

The problem with this sales pitch in the living room is it is already assumed downtime. So now the question becomes, "How can I make the most of this downtime?". Many people chose Wii for a while, now they are switching more to PS3 and xb360/kinect. And many more settle on cable TV.

To make the conscious decision to buy an inferior gaming device (i product) as it's main draw (unlike iphone ipad ipod) would be a miserable failure ... much like AppleTV.