NPD September 2010

[Richard]

So, your point was that PS3 is relatively more popular in Canada than it is in the USA, but still a good deal less popular than the 360. Or is your point that the PS3 is now the more popular console in Canada? You have some data for the former, but not the latter.

This is why these sales threads suck.

Okay, but it also shows another thing, with those two datapoints (not much I know) the trend is upwards for PS3. OTOH, the PS3 trend in the US is also upwards, and a sharper incline too.

We can also speculate that Canada 2009's PS3 Slim tipped the balance further, how much is hard to say. OTOH, this year's XBOX slim probably brought it back again.

But yeah, unless he is simply saying PS3 sells relatively better in Canada than the US there's no much hard evidence beyond that to credibly sustain the other argument. Even the first argument is a bit of a dead end because the data is so vague and the data points so few there's very little to extrapolate upon. For instance: Canada sells relatively more PS3's because of Quebec (i.e. French-speaking, i.e. France, i.e. mainland Europe AKA PSLand) =

 

[djskribbles]

So, your point was that PS3 is relatively more popular in Canada than it is in the USA, but still a good deal less popular than the 360. Or is your point that the PS3 is now the more popular console in Canada? You have some data for the former, but not the latter.

This is why these sales threads suck.

All I was claiming to be fact, was that the PS3 is relatively more popular in Canada than it is in the US. The latter part was my opinion, that the PS3 is the more popular console presently. The numbers that I posted were not to backup my opinion, but to backup my claim that the PS3 is relatively more popular here than it is in the US. My response was to AlphaWolf's claim that sales in Canada mirror US sales and I was simply responding to that comment. I was not expecting such attitude and anger. I honestly don't know why this transpired the way that it has.

You're right... these sales threads do suck. People are too damn defensive in these threads. Makes me not want to post in them.

 

[patsu]

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/3101...Meets_With_Modest_Response_From_Consumers.php

- NPD Group data provided exclusively to Gamasutra shows sales of approximately 20,000 standalone copies of Sports Champions, a key first-party launch title for the Move system.

...

- We estimate that total sales of Sports Champions, including accessory bundles and hardware bundles, reached into the 100,000 to 150,000 unit range during September 2010. However, precise figures are not – and probably will not ever be – publicly available.

- According to Anita Frazier, analyst for the NPD Group, PlayStation Move accessories contributed to the 5% growth of the accessory segment over last year. All three of the Move SKUs – the standalone Move controller, the navigation controller, and the Sports Champions wand/camera bundle – made the list of top 10 accessories for the month.

- To this we would note that the accessory segment was up $15 million in September compared to the corresponding revenue figures for July and August. That suggests to us that some significant portion of that revenue could be ascribed to PlayStation Move sales. Sales of 100,000 Sports Champions wand/camera bundles would generate an additional $10 million in accessory revenue.

- Frazier added that the average price of system hardware increased in September, driven primarily by the Halo: Reach Xbox 360 bundle and the PlayStation Move 320GB PlayStation 3 hardware bundle. Both of these hardware bundles retails for $400.

- Finally, we note that Wedbush's Pachter suggested that he expected that Move controller sales were approximately 300,000 units including console bundles.

Here is our bottom line: During a 15-day period in September (and two days in October), Sony launched PlayStation Move and reached between 1% and 3% of the installed hardware base. We feel that Sony has put forth a modest effort and received a corresponding modest consumer reaction. The company has much work yet to do, should it wish to make Move a permanent fixture in the PlayStation product line.

 

[tha_con]

So they're taking US sales numbers (generous esitmates I'd say) and then comparing that against the world wide user base? I don't think that's particularly fair.

That said, I think Sony is doing well for what they've spent on Marketing, and they understand the risks of new devices and hardware like this, at least considerably better than Microsoft does. The device will continue to garner support, but at this point we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

One thing is clear, Sony isn't going to spent half a billion dollars to promote their device.

 

[Arwin]

Disappointing numbers for the U.S. if you ask me, but great numbers for Europe. Very similar in other words to how Eye Toy and the like did. The real and final test will be how well Move does around black friday and the holidays, as this kind of device is particularly aimed at sales around those 'casual' holidays. Over here, a children's holiday was coming up so that could have helped the numbers, but here too I've talked to a few parents that were going to hold out until Christmas holidays, although one of them didn't in the end.

I think you may see the opposite with Kinect - great numbers in the U.S., not so much in Europe, but we'll see. Japan will be interesting too.

 

[tha_con]

With a half a billion dollar ad campaign, Kinect better do gangbusters, lol.

 

[Rotmm]

Disappointing numbers for the U.S. if you ask me, but great numbers for Europe.

The difference being that the US numbers are based on something approaching "hard" end user sales data, while the EU figures are based on order numbers by retailers as given by a Sony representative.

The former has some credibility, the latter not so much. It'll be many months of Sony EU sales data before we can gain any insight to not only how Move is doing on a month by month basis, but to extrapolate back to get an inkling of how it did at and near launch.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

So, your point was that PS3 is relatively more popular in Canada than it is in the USA, but still a good deal less popular than the 360. Or is your point that the PS3 is now the more popular console in Canada? You have some data for the former, but not the latter.

This is why these sales threads suck.

The discussion would exist whether the sales threads exist or not.

The only thing that would change is that instead of being consolidated in one thread (for the most part) they would pollute other threads.

So in that aspect, sales threads are great. They remove thread pollution from other threads and being in a consolidated thread, it's easy enough to ignore the thread and never see it if you don't want to.

Regards,
SB

 

[Arwin]

The former has some credibility, the latter not so much. It'll be many months of Sony EU sales data before we can gain any insight to not only how Move is doing on a month by month basis, but to extrapolate back to get an inkling of how it did at and near launch.

You think that Sony can just bring out any number whatsoever? Not likely. Whenever companies release sales numbers, they are generally real numbers, not some kind of wishful thinking. The only 'lying' they generally do is not mentioning numbers when they don't like to boast about them, or present them a little favorably. Clearly, they didn't like the US sales numbers.

On another note, I've been getting back into shape after the flu/cold/whatever, and I've done some three starring in Table Tennis (didn't think I'd be able to hang with Championship right now, Boomer is extremely tough) and some Bocce and Disc Golf and crossed the 300 stars.

Then moved on to complete Gladiator Gold tonight ... it was much easier than I expected to be honest, and still great fun. I am so looking forward to more games like this - I definitely think I'll go for The Fight when it comes out.

Anyway, still loving this game. Still doing well on my friendslist also - out of 16 friends that have played this, I'm ranking two 1sts, two 2nds, a 5th (Archery, my nemesis) and 10th (Beach Volley, didn't play it much yet, just Bronze). And those 2nds are close seconds - someone on my friendslist is having a nice battle with me there, so I'll have to get them back soon.

I hope sales pick up in the US over the holidays, would be good for Move support in the future. Stoked with the EU sales though, they look very healthy. It's a bit similar to how things went with the EyeToy back in the day, but I really hope Move becomes a global success - it definitely deserves to.

 

[tha_con]

It's likely Sony is talking about Sold to retailers (aka shipped) and not sold through. Either way, currently it doesn't matter much to Sony. If Move is unable to sell, then it will matter to Sony, but for the present, this is a big success for them in Europe.

 

[Rotmm]

Conversation carried on from Move Game Sales Thread

You think that Sony can just bring out any number whatsoever? Not likely. Whenever companies release sales numbers, they are generally real numbers, not some kind of wishful thinking. The only 'lying' they generally do is not mentioning numbers when they don't like to boast about them, or present them a little favorably. Clearly, they didn't like the US sales numbers.

It's not about bringing out any number whatsoever, but on choosing which number to publish. As you are more than aware, there's a huge difference between a sold-through number and s shipped-to number. The US sales figure is by an analyst using available data to best-guess a sell-through number, ie: in customer hands.

The Sony one for EU is, as again I'm 100% sure you know, a ship-to number. Except that, in the case of Sony they don't even have to actually have shipped it to count it (unlike, for example, Microsoft or Nintendo) but just have a retailer order.

Now, you may think every single piece of Move equipment that had an European retail order placed against it is already in the hands of consumers, therefore the 1.5m sales figure is very impressive. And that may be the case. But, as again I'm sure you know but just choose to not acknowledge, it's almost guaranteed to be very far from the case. I'd be surprised if much more than 1/3 was actually in EU consumer hands at present.

In the meantime, just something to think about. When Sony launched the PS3 they originally claimed 5.5m sales in the first 2 quarters (5 months in effect). Then they changed their accounting practises from shipped from factory to irdered by retail, and the figure was amended on their financial reports to 3.5 million. Actual PS3 sales to consumers, going by the MediaCreate and NPD numbers was somewhere just below 2 million. And that discrepancy between 3.5 million and 2 million wasn't just because Sony stuffed the channel to look good to investors, but mainly because the thousands and thousands of retailers were building-up a stockholding.

Just as many of those Move peripherals in the EU are sitting in store shelves in tens of thousands of retail outlets all across Europe, as well as many, many more in online retailer warehouses.

Which is why, as I said, it will take months to be able to discern just how well Move (and the same will be true for Kinect) both did at the start and does as time goes on.

 

[Rotmm]

You think that Sony can just bring out any number whatsoever?...

I've replied here so not to sidetrack this thread any longer

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1484278&postcount=84

 

[patsu]

Except that, in the case of Sony they don't even have to actually have shipped it to count it (unlike, for example, Microsoft or Nintendo) but just have a retailer order.

I think this may be outdated info. I was told since Kaz took over, they have switched to using "sales through to resellers" to track their sales and channel inventory.

In the meantime, just something to think about. When Sony launched the PS3 they originally claimed 5.5m sales in the first 2 quarters (5 months in effect). Then they changed their accounting practises from shipped from factory to irdered by retail, and the figure was amended on their financial reports to 3.5 million. Actual PS3 sales to consumers, going by the MediaCreate and NPD numbers was somewhere just below 2 million. And that discrepancy between 3.5 million and 2 million wasn't just because Sony stuffed the channel to look good to investors, but mainly because the thousands and thousands of retailers were building-up a stockholding.

Using ship-to figures for sales tracking is very very common for large companies in late 1999 - early 2000s. In fact, it's still being practiced around the world today. This is because for a global hardware company like Sony, they need a consistent way to count their sales globally. In many parts of the world, getting channel sales and inventory is very challenging (or impossible), but getting shipped out numbers is always possible. Auditors won't use these ship-to numbers directly to report their finances. They will apply their own heuristics to account for returns, etc.

To switch to sales-through reporting, new distributor contracts may be needed (or at least old ones updated). This is another time consuming negotiation.

Now for channel stuffing, even if you use sales-through tracking, it is still possible to stuff the channel. ^_^ ... although it's much more easier to do so with shipped-to tracking.

In general, you need the channel to hold enough inventory. e.g., I remember a few years ago, there was congestions at the ports, so people who practiced JIT got burned because their products were stuck at the ports for weeks (months ?).
How much to hold depends on your end user sell through rate, and other factors. So if you just look at the inventory figure, it's only "half" the picture. Can't conclude whether they are stuffing the channel. I remember MS shipped 100-200 Xbox 360s to the Fry's Electronics in Fremont, CA when PS3 was launched. At that time, the manager shook his head and told me it's going to take months and months for them to clear the stock. ;-)

For Andrew House's comments, I wouldn't conclude anything either way. Best is to wait for more official info.

It's not like you need the data first thing every Monday morning to run a company.

 

[patsu]

The difference being that the US numbers are based on something approaching "hard" end user sales data, while the EU figures are based on order numbers by retailers as given by a Sony representative.

The former has some credibility, the latter not so much. It'll be many months of Sony EU sales data before we can gain any insight to not only how Move is doing on a month by month basis, but to extrapolate back to get an inkling of how it did at and near launch.

Is Pachter always accurate previously ? Why are some US areas still stock out after 2-3 weeks ? When is the next shipment ? Now that my US dollars has become almost as good as Singapore dollars, how does that affect a Japanese company and a product like Move ? (Sony has started to outsource its high-end TV manufacturing also).

 

[tha_con]

Conversation carried on from Move Game Sales Thread



It's not about bringing out any number whatsoever, but on choosing which number to publish. As you are more than aware, there's a huge difference between a sold-through number and s shipped-to number. The US sales figure is by an analyst using available data to best-guess a sell-through number, ie: in customer hands.

The Sony one for EU is, as again I'm 100% sure you know, a ship-to number. Except that, in the case of Sony they don't even have to actually have shipped it to count it (unlike, for example, Microsoft or Nintendo) but just have a retailer order.

Now, you may think every single piece of Move equipment that had an European retail order placed against it is already in the hands of consumers, therefore the 1.5m sales figure is very impressive. And that may be the case. But, as again I'm sure you know but just choose to not acknowledge, it's almost guaranteed to be very far from the case. I'd be surprised if much more than 1/3 was actually in EU consumer hands at present.

In the meantime, just something to think about. When Sony launched the PS3 they originally claimed 5.5m sales in the first 2 quarters (5 months in effect). Then they changed their accounting practises from shipped from factory to irdered by retail, and the figure was amended on their financial reports to 3.5 million. Actual PS3 sales to consumers, going by the MediaCreate and NPD numbers was somewhere just below 2 million. And that discrepancy between 3.5 million and 2 million wasn't just because Sony stuffed the channel to look good to investors, but mainly because the thousands and thousands of retailers were building-up a stockholding.

Just as many of those Move peripherals in the EU are sitting in store shelves in tens of thousands of retail outlets all across Europe, as well as many, many more in online retailer warehouses.

Which is why, as I said, it will take months to be able to discern just how well Move (and the same will be true for Kinect) both did at the start and does as time goes on.

In the case of Sony, it doesn't really matter if they're in consumers hands at this point. If they've sold 1.5 Million to retailers, then everything is okay, at least at present. Now, if they can't move that hardware, Sony has reason for worry. But 1.5 Million units is a bigger retailer demand than I expected.

 

[patsu]

Consumer demand is very important. Sony did not execute a coherent strategy to generate the demand for Move. They rely on fragmented advertising and word of mouth instead. In the absence of a hit title, it will likely be a slow stew.

There is also the GT5 advertising blitz to consider. But if it is delayed, or no show, then the GT5 advertising may go to waste. This is the bigger loss for Sony.

I think Move developers will need time (lots of it) to create something truly unique. When they do have something wonderful, then I suspect Sony will be more open to spend $$$. Sports Champions is great (Everyone should try it !), but it's too similar to WiiSports IMHO.

 

[tha_con]

I think Sony is playing their cards right, at the moment. If word of mouth doesn't spread the device to current console owners, then they'll drum up marketing, particularly when more "core" titles are available, like Socom and Killzone. As of right now though, they can sit back and test the waters without too much worry.

Meanwhile, Microsoft is going to spill out a half a billion dollars to try to rebuy the Wii audience, and there's really no sure bet if it'll work or not. We'll all just have to wait and see.

 

[Rotmm]

I think this may be outdated info. I was told since Kaz took over, they have switched to using "sales through to resellers" to track their sales and channel inventory.

Not quite.You're right in that it changed in early 2007, due to investor pressure, from ship-to distribution (ie: ship from factory) to the more common ship-to retail. However, where Sony differ from MS and Nintendo is that those both report ship-to as actually shipped to retail, whereas Sony report the ship-to figure slightly differently and count it from when an order is placed by retail.

Not a huge difference in the scheme of things, but just another reason why it would be prudent to take the 1.5 million figure with a large pinch of salt because, as I said to Arwin, there is a huge difference between retail placing an order and consumer taking one home. It'll take some months to get a true picture of how well it (and Kinect) are doing.

 

[patsu]

Is that true ? Do you have a link. There are some questions in my mind.

 

[Arwin]

Not a huge difference in the scheme of things, but just another reason why it would be prudent to take the 1.5 million figure with a large pinch of salt because, as I said to Arwin, there is a huge difference between retail placing an order and consumer taking one home. It'll take some months to get a true picture of how well it (and Kinect) are doing.

In this case though it is quite clear that in Europe at least the Move has been selling really well - stores were empty almost everywhere pretty quickly, and many retailers have complained that Sony wasn't able to resupply them. I can see it around me as well - I have 8 colleagues with PS3s, and most of them got 2 controllers. Of course that's not representative or sales would have been closer to the total EU install-base, but still. Also Sports Champions (and a few other titles), not being packed in with the Move bundle here, showed up in charts all over Europe in high positions (2nd only to big hitters like Halo). Again, those don't necessarily point to high numbers, but they are an indication.

Of course I do not doubt whatsoever that Sony is counting individual Move controllers at the very least.

Anyway, as you say, time will tell. These were supposed to be 1st month sales. We'll have to wait and see how the sales progress over the holidays and as new titles are being released. Sales of titles like Time Crisis Razing Storm and several others will give at least some indication. I certainly have good hopes for the Move selling well, simply because so many even mainstream, big titles support it - all Sony's shooters (Killzone 3, Mag 2.0, Socom 4) so far do, for instance, and even a relatively minor feature such as head-tracking in GT5 is bound to have some impact.