NPD September 2010

So you're expecting PS3 to ship 1 million more than X360, despite being outsold heavily in USA?

Wow, Europe is sure selling 5X as many consoles as anywhere else in the world these days (and conveniently, no hard numbers for that region) :rolleyes:

If Sony doesn't ship less than MS this quarter, I'm through with Sony ship numbers.

USA=900k (known)
Japan=300k? (known)
Europe=2.3m?? (no hard numbers)

Sony ship=3.5m? On top of vastly over shipping versus sales last quarter?

So Europe now selling 2X more than Japan/USA combined? Right.

And Nintendo Europe sales slides dont show this either. Quite the opposite.

AND MS said a few weeks ago (though I cant seemto find a link through google) that after S they were outselling PS3 "across Europe"

The shipment will be around 3m for Sony, down just a bit from last year. NA (US + Canada) will be about 1m, Japan/Asia will be around 400k and PAL will be about 1.6m. Sony ship to a lot of countries that MS and Nintendo don't bother with in PAL, which is why a lot of their sales go unreported. The main reason behind this is that Sony can build some kind of market in 2nd world developing nations without worrying about piracy so they are able to enter these markets while selling the console at cost or in some cases below cost.

Simply put if Sony ship ~3m they expect to sell around 3m, especially given the large shipment last quarter. If Sony were overshipping every quarter as you suggest in every sales thread then we would see evidence of it in following quarters. It hasn't happened. I think, Rangers, you need to accept the fact that the PS3 is significantly outselling the 360 WW. Pretty much everyone can see it...
 
you need to accept the fact that the PS3 is significantly outselling the 360 WW. Pretty much everyone can see it...

What timeframe? I think after the 360 slim launch that is not true. I think you have been slightly over optimistic regarding PS3 sales in the past also.

edit: but who knows about the future. I'm pretty sure GT 5 is going to move a LOT of systems in Europe.
 
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I think, Rangers, you need to accept the fact that the PS3 is significantly outselling the 360 WW. Pretty much everyone can see it...

with no hard evidence. just wishful thinking and cloudy, overly-optimistic "shipping" numbers.

NPD is hard evidence and a measurable quantity showing the 360 selling significantly more. Extrapolate that WW (tempered for: xenophobia and minus Japan plus MS statement that the S is winning the sales in EU) and it's hard not to see 360 possibly doing better than PS3 WW.
 
Heh, depends on your preferred console I guess. Judging by the PAL software sales and data released during the 360 S release, I think the 360 was outselling the PS3 (minus Japan) by a fairly large margin, but things have settled back to even, if not the PS3 back on top in most PAL countries. Pre - 360 S, it seemed quite clear that the PS3 was outselling the 360 in most PAL countries. With this in mind, IMHO, it seems like the PS3 was (and will continue to after the 360 S bump) outsell the 360 WW, albeit, not by much. GT5 should give the PS3 a nice bump in PAL regions and a temporary bump elsewhere. As for the 360, Kinect is a wildcard.
 
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with no hard evidence. just wishful thinking and cloudy, overly-optimistic "shipping" numbers.

NPD is hard evidence and a measurable quantity showing the 360 selling significantly more. Extrapolate that WW (tempered for: xenophobia and minus Japan plus MS statement that the S is winning the sales in EU) and it's hard not to see 360 possibly doing better than PS3 WW.

But that's just it, if the shipping figures were optimistic it would have evened out with a couple of super low quarters. Retailers don't keep ordering stuff that doesn't sell.
 
This is the first month of the new regime. There was always bound to be pressure to release all of the figures.

No one source released all of the information. Going into the holiday season you'll see more numbers being released, kinect, black ops, assassins creed etc will all be bragging points. MS will probably continue to crow about their sales figures as long as they are on top and still other numbers will continue to leak out because of the number of sources for the information.
 
plus MS statement that the S is winning the sales in EU
what during the week + the week after the xboxS launch
Do you think it is now?

latest charts that I could quickl;y find.
The UK is about the only place in europe where software seems to do better on the xbox360 than the ps3.
Also the numbers are a lot better for the xbox360 now than they were say 6months ago, I assume from the xbox360S model,
the wii seems to have died!!

holland
1 FIFA 11 (PS3) ELECTRONIC ARTS
2 MEDAL OF HONOR (PS3) ELECTRONIC ARTS
3 PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2011 (PS3) KONAMI
4 FIFA 11 (XBOX 360) ELECTRONIC ARTS
5 MEDAL OF HONOR (XBOX 360) ELECTRONIC ARTS
6 WII PARTY (Wii) NINTENDO
7 MEDAL OF HONOR (PC) ELECTRONIC ARTS
8 FIFA 11 (PS2) ELECTRONIC ARTS
9 HALO REACH (XBOX 360) MICROSOFT
10 PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2011 (XBOX 360)

sweden
01 FIFA 11 (PS3)
02 FIFA 11 (360)
03 Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (PS3)
04 Castlevania: Lords of Shadow (PS3)
05 Civilization V (PC)
06 NHL 11 (PS3)
07 NHL 11 (360)
08 Starcraft 2 Wings of Liberty (PC)
09 Halo Reach (360)
10 FIFA 11 (PS2)
11 Castlevania: Lords of Shadow (360)
12 Sports Champions (PS3 Move)
13 New Super Mario Bros Wii (Wii)
14 Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (360)
15 Enslaved: Odyssey to the West (PS3)
16 New Super Mario Bros (DS)
17 World of Warcraft (PC)
18 World Rally Championship (PS3)
19 Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (PC)
20 NHL Slapshot (Wii)

spain (for the whole month)
1 FORMULA 1 2010 PS3
2 STARTER PACK (MOVE) PS3
3 NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII
4 FORMULA 1 2010 XBOX360
5 MAFIA II PS3
6 HALO REACH XBOX360
7 ART ACADEMY NINTENDO DS
8 SUPER MARIO GALAXY 2 WII
9 KINGDOM HEARTS: BIRTH BY SLEEP PSP
10 SPORTS CHAMPIONS (MOVE) PS3

germany
01. FIFA 11 PS3
02. FIFA 11 Xbox 360
03. PES 2011 PS3
04. (Neu)Castlevania: Lords of Shadow PS3
05. FIFA 11 PS2
06.F1 2010 PS3
07. (Neu)Wii Party Wii
08. FIFA 11 PSP
09. FIFA 11Wii
10. (Neu) FIFA 11NDS

italy
1) Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (PS3)
2) FIFA 11 (PS3)
3) FIFA 11 (X360)
4) Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (X360)
5) FIFA 11 (PS2)
6) F1 2010 (PS3)
7) FIFA 11 (PSP)
8) Sports Champions (PS3)
9) F1 2010 (X360)
10) Halo: Reach (X360)

france
1) FIFA 11 (PS3)
2) Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (PS3)
3) FIFA 11 (X360)
4) F1 2010 (PS3)
5) Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (X360)

UK
1 FIFA 11 XB360
2 FIFA 11 PS3
3 PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2011 PS3
4 HALO: REACH XB360
5 DEAD RISING 2 XB360
6 PRO EVOLUTION SOCCER 2011 XB360
7 F1 2010 PS3
8 F1 2010 XB360
9 DEAD RISING 2 PS3
10 JUST DANCE WII
11 CASTLEVANIA: LORDS OF SHADOW PS3
12 WII PARTY WII
13 ENSLAVED: ODYSSEY TO THE WEST XB360
14 FIFA 11 WII
15 CASTLEVANIA: LORDS OF SHADOW XB360
16 ENSLAVED: ODYSSEY TO THE WEST PS3
17 FIFA 11 PSP
18 SPORTS CHAMPIONS PS3
19 WII SPORTS RESORT WII
20 DANCE ON BROADWAY WII
USA=900k (known)
Japan=300k? (known)
Europe=2.3m?? (no hard numbers)

Sony ship=3.5m? On top of vastly over shipping versus sales last quarter?
A/ you say they vastly overshipped last quarter
B/ then u say theres no hard numbers (thus u dont know)

soyou know for a fact they overshipped even though you dont have access to the full sales figures?

Also the world consists of more than USA+japan+europe
 
None of your european sales figures remotely suggest that ps3 is outselling 360 there by 3:1 or more.
 
Ild put money on that black op's will easily sell >3.3million in 2 months time.
Preorders are higher than MW2's were at the same time.
It looks like as well as GTA, halo is not the dominant force for the xbox it once was.
Yes perhaps its good that bungie arent doing the next halo game, maybe MS should go after the guys that departed from activision after MW2!

I'd be surprised if COD: BO doesn't sell more in 2 months than Reach did in 2 weeks. :D

And I was quite specific in Single months sales (although I really meant First month). I had to go back and read my post again to make sure I posted what I thought I posted.

Unfortunately, going forward it's going to be impossible for the rest of my post to be disseminated. Single title/Single month/Single console. So COD: BO may break ~3.3 million across all platforms, but I doubt it will do so on a single platform. And with COD: MW2 being the current benchmark for Single title/Single month/Multiple console, it'll be interesting to see how that compares. Although I don't think PS3 user base is enough to saturate single title, first months sales yet (it's getting close), which will give COD: BO a bit of an advantage in that.

GTA 5 however will be an interesting data point. I'd say that has the best chances of any future title to do better than the Halo's have for single title/single month/single console sales. It's too bad it got delayed yet again.

Regards,
SB
 
what during the week + the week after the xboxS launch
Do you think it is now?

I dont know. Very possibly, with Slim still somewhat fresh.

I never dispute that PS3 does better in continental Europe. I do dispute that it's over 2X as big as USA market, nothing ever in history supports anything close to that. I just happened across a Wikipedia page for example showing PS2 shipments about the same to NA and EU for it's whole life. This is consistent with everything we know, the Europe market is similar to North America in size, maybe a little bigger.

Also the world consists of more than USA+japan+europe

:rolleyes: Oh come off it. Sales outside those regions (plus Australia, New Zealand, and a few others) are negligible, especially when you're talking about the super expensive (for most countries) PS3. In fact the PS3 wasn't even officially launched anywhere in Latin America until very recently, but X360 was for some time. You do know consoles are officially illegal in China, right? So where is this huge market where PS3 is magically outselling 360 40-1 to make these numbers work? Especially when you look at the Europe market share numbers and see how small even many of these "larger" EU markets really are? If places like Sweden and Portugal are miniscule, what does that say for other countries outside these? And dont forget that we must assume UK 360 hardware is at least even with PS3, so you're asking PS3 to pull off all these feats in Europe while excluding the largest market there just for good measure.

And again you're ignoring the Nintendo Europe slides, which consistently dont show the type of utter sales domination in Europe PS3 would need to pull this off.

Oh and for those Europe software charts, they are nice, and again I'm certainly not denying PS3 is king in Europe, but we must consider rampant 360 piracy hurting it's software sales in Europe too. How much this matters is anybody's guess, but clearly 360 hardware sales if anything, are probably greater than reflected in it's software sales. And yes PS3 just got a measure of piracy, but it's very limited and recent, nothing close to what 360 has seen for years.
 
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Oh come off it. Sales outside those regions (plus Australia, New Zealand, and a few others) are negligible
http://www.eyeofdubai.com/v1/news/newsdetail-39965.htm
For PlayStation®3, the global installed base of which is approximately 30 million units with more than half a million units in the Middle East
thus >1.67% of ps3's have been sold in the middle east (perhaps used in skuds :p )
not forgetting taiwan,singapore,south korea,hong kong etc (whose economies typically are growing quicker than most in the west)
Whilst you may think a percentage point here + percentage point there etc dont count for much and are not worth bothering about, I disagree it all adds up.

I do dispute that it's over 2X as big as USA market, nothing ever in history supports anything close to that
Did I say it was twice as big?
About Europe Sony recently said they sold 16million europe (from 38.1million total)

thus till the end of 2nd quarter the ps3 figures are
16 europe
12.7 USA
5.2 japan

33.9 / 38.1
thus 4.2 million elsewhere in the world to find.
You dont think theres 4million amongst these places?
middle east, asia, oceania, canada, latin + south america + south africa
 
http://www.eyeofdubai.com/v1/news/newsdetail-39965.htm

thus >1.67% of ps3's have been sold in the middle east (perhaps used in skuds :p )
not forgetting taiwan,singapore,south korea,hong kong etc (whose economies typically are growing quicker than most in the west)
Whilst you may think a percentage point here + percentage point there etc dont count for much and are not worth bothering about, I disagree it all adds up.

Did I say it was twice as big?
About Europe Sony recently said they sold 16million europe (from 38.1million total)

thus till the end of 2nd quarter the ps3 figures are
16 europe
12.7 USA
5.2 japan

33.9 / 38.1
thus 4.2 million elsewhere in the world to find.
You dont think theres 4million amongst these places?
middle east, asia, oceania, canada, latin + south america + south africa


Well Canada is typically 10% of the US. So there's 1.2 million of them, except that Canada mirrors US sales pretty closely.
 
Canada seems to be more pro-PS3 than the US. If you look at redflagdeals (which is a huge community of people who share deals among many other things), whenever there's a poll about the PS3 vs 360, the PS3 always wins in a landslide. Also, last time NPD released numbers for Canada (which was a while ago... the PS3's popularity has grown since then), the numbers were much closer than they were in the US. Whenever deals are posted about popular multiplatform titles, the PS3 version always sells at a quicker pace. I remember when they had MW2 pre-orders for 49.99 (when I got my copy) the PS3 version sold at a quicker rate than the 360 version at futureshop.

examples:
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/ps3-xbox-360-a-848184/
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/ps3-xbox360-what-buy-815851/
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/looking-advice-xbox360-ps3-800514/
 
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Canada seems to be more pro-PS3 than the US. If you look at redflagdeals (which is a huge community of people who share deals among many other things), whenever there's a poll about the PS3 vs 360, the PS3 always wins in a landslide. Also, last time NPD released numbers for Canada, the numbers were much closer than they were in the US.

NPD covers canada as well, numbers they have released in the past for canada are very similar to US numbers.

Some random website... whatever.
 
with no hard evidence. just wishful thinking and cloudy, overly-optimistic "shipping" numbers.

NPD is hard evidence and a measurable quantity showing the 360 selling significantly more. Extrapolate that WW (tempered for: xenophobia and minus Japan plus MS statement that the S is winning the sales in EU) and it's hard not to see 360 possibly doing better than PS3 WW.
Oh that's rich! Why don't you extrapolate the number of gas guzzling pickup trucks sold in the US to the entire world to see how well they sell as well? I'm sure that'll give you good figures...And if you're not satisfied with that, repeat it with firearms, hamburgers, top loading washers, etc.

If you overship and stuff the retail channels like MS did in 2006, you'll see a very low ship number in the next quarter. Retailers don't order product that they still have a lot sitting on shelves.
 
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NPD covers canada as well, numbers they have released in the past for canada are very similar to US numbers.

Some random website... whatever.


It's not just "some random website"... it's probably Canada's biggest community/forum ever. I wouldn't even be surprised if half of Canada visits that site.

And like I said, NPD hasn't released numbers for Canada for a while now, but when they did (back when the 360 was consistently outselling the PS3 in the US by a lot) the numbers were much closer. These are the last numbers I could find:

NPD Canada Nov. 2007
PS3: 51,000
360: 59,000

NPD US Nov. 2007
PS3: 466,000
360: 770,000

I wouldn't exactly call that similar.
 
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